Thread: Economic sanctions

Originally Posted by Backspin

Putting sanctions news in the war thread is kinda convoluted

Russia just threw a wrench in the computer chips supply chain. Russia and Ukraine control a huge amount of the neon market because the Soviets developed it for its own computer programs. But then they were just wound into the global economy after 1991.

‼️����Russia restricts supplies of neon,argon,helium and other inert gases to foreign markets

Decree of the Government of����stricts the export of inert gases from����until the end of this year. The list includes all inert gases,which include neon,argon, helium and a number and others

In which case you are fortunate to be so toxic, rather than inert.

The ruble is the best performing currency of 2022, and according to photo's I saw on Quora, supermarket shelves are stacked and life continues much the same in Russia. Putins popularity hovers around 69%, according to the last survey I saw. So no, so far these sanctions are not working.

It appears to be Western Europe that is bearing the brunt of the economic pain. Unless I am mistaken, time is on Putins side. Most of the rest of the world considers this a European squabble, and are not about to harm their own economic interests by taking sides.

Originally Posted by sabang

Unless I am mistaken

According to your posting history, you most likely are.

Originally Posted by sabang

according to photo's I saw on Quora

You forgot "from a link on one of my propaganda websites".

No, Quora. GIYF.

^^ I suppose in your fantasy world, The Chavista's do not hold power in Venezuela, Assad is not President of Syria, freedom and democracy were introduced to Iraq and Libya, and the US did not have it's ass handed to it on a plate in Afghanistan (or Vietnam). FAIL.

Originally Posted by sabang

and according to photo's I saw on Quora

The Three Stooges just do it all to themselves. What a trio of clowns.

Originally Posted by sabang

Unless I am mistaken

You always are Mr. this war will never happen.

Yes, what a Diplomatic Fail this asshole Biden regime is. I look forward to their inevitable ouster. Those wankers turned me back to Republican.

Originally Posted by sabang

Yes, what a Diplomatic Fail this asshole Biden regime is.

Swallow the horseshit, lemming. You are wallowing in a trough of it.

I await the Midterm massacre with barely concealed joy!

Sabang the trumpanzee - I supposed he has to take the Russian side.

I put up an Al Jazeera article in the News thread. You can see there how well these sanctions aren't working.

Originally Posted by sabang

You can see there how well these sanctions aren't working.

Originally Posted by sabang

You can see there how well these sanctions aren't working

So, you're blind as well as thick

Originally Posted by pickel

According to your posting history, you most likely are.

Guess Al Jazeera don't listen to the wisdom of the TD boneheads. They do their own research.

Originally Posted by sabang

The ruble is the best performing currency of 2022, and according to photo's I saw on Quora, supermarket shelves are stacked.

It's almost impressive how you manage to cram so much utter bollocks into one sentence.

Russia exports fuck all Argon and Helium.

fuck em and their sanctions.

The perverse effects of sanctions means rising fuel and food costs for the rest of the world – and fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe. Sooner or later, a deal must be made


It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed.
Sanctions were imposed on Vladimir Putin not because they were considered the best option, but because they were better than the other two available courses of action: doing nothing or getting involved militarily.

The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didn’t happen, with the result that sanctions – while still incomplete – have gradually been intensified.

There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.


When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

That’s not to say the sanctions are pain-free for Russia. The International Monetary Fund estimates the economy will shrink by 8.5% this year as imports from the west collapse. Russia has stockpiles of goods essential to keep its economy going, but over time they will be used up.

But Europe is only gradually weaning itself off its dependency on Russian energy, and so an immediate financial crisis for Putin has been averted. The rouble – courtesy of capital controls and a healthy trade surplus – is strong. The Kremlin has time to find alternative sources of spare parts and components from countries willing to circumvent western sanctions.

When the global movers and shakers met in Davos last week, the public message was condemnation of Russian aggression and renewed commitment to stand solidly behind Ukraine. But privately, there was concern about the economic costs of a prolonged war.

These concerns are entirely justified. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given an added boost to already strong price pressures. The UK’s annual inflation rate stands at 9% – its highest in 40 years – petrol prices have hit a record high and the energy price cap is expected to increase by £700-800 a year in October. Rishi Sunak’s latest support package to cope with the cost-of-living crisis was the third from the chancellor in four months – and there will be more to come later in the year.

As a result of the war, western economies face a period of slow or negative growth and rising inflation – a return to the stagflation of the 1970s. Central banks – including the Bank of England – feel they have to respond to near double-digit inflation by raising interest rates. Unemployment is set to rise. Other European countries face the same problems, if not more so, since most of them are more dependent on Russian gas than is the UK.

The problems facing the world’s poorer countries are of a different order of magnitude. For some of them the issue is not stagflation, but starvation, as a result of wheat supplies from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports being blocked.

As David Beasley, the executive director of the World Food Programme put it: “Right now, Ukraine’s grain silos are full. At the same time, 44 million people around the world are marching towards starvation.”

In every multilateral organisation – the IMF, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations – fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe.
The position is simple: unless developing nations are energy exporters themselves, they face a triple whammy in which fuel and food crises trigger financial crises. Faced with the choice of feeding their populations or paying their international creditors, governments will opt for the former. Sri Lanka was the first country since the Russian invasion to default on its debts, but is unlikely to be the last. The world appears closer to a full-blown debt crisis than at any time since the 1990s.


Putin has rightly been condemned for “weaponising” food, but his willingness to do so should come as no surprise. From the start, the Russian president has been playing a long game, waiting for the international coalition against him to fragment. The Kremlin thinks Russia’s threshold for economic pain is higher than the west’s, and it is probably right about that.

If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.

Complete defeat for Putin on the battlefield is one way the war could end, although as things stand that doesn’t appear all that likely. There are other possible outcomes. One is that the economic blockade eventually works, with ever-tougher sanctions forcing Russia to back down. Another is a negotiated settlement.

Putin is not going to surrender unconditionally, and the potential for severe collateral damage from the economic war is obvious: falling living standards in developed countries; famine, food riots and a debt crisis in the developing world.

The atrocities committed by Russian troops mean compromising with the Kremlin is currently hard to swallow, but economic reality suggests only one thing: sooner or later a deal will be struck.

• Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editor
  
  https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...P=share_btn_tw

Far from compelling Russia to exit Ukraine, they are causing great suffering worldwide as food and energy prices soar

Six million households in Britain face the possibility of morning and evening blackouts this winter to maintain sanctions against Russia, as do consumers across Europe.

This is despite Europe pouring about $1bn a day into Russia to pay for the gas and oil it continues to consume. This seems crazy. Proposals by the EU to halt the payments are understandably being opposed by countries close to Russia and heavily dependent on its fossil fuels; Germany buys 12% of its oil and 35% of its gas from Russia, figures that are much higher in Hungary.

The EU in Brussels seems not to know what to do. A diplomatic compromise has been raised – exempting sanctions on imports via pipeline, which would spare Hungary and Germany – but no practical plan has been agreed. The real reason is that arguments over the sanctions weapon have been reduced to macho rhetoric. They are supposed to induce a foreign regime to change some unacceptable policy. This rarely if ever happens, and in Russia’s case it has blatantly failed. Apologists now claim that sanctions are merely a deterrent, intended to work in the medium to long term. As war in Ukraine shifts into a different gear, that term could be long indeed.

Sanctions may have harmed Russia’s credit-worthiness, but the 70% surge in world gas prices alone has supercharged its balance of payments. Its current account trade surplus, according to its central bank, is now over three times the pre-invasion level. At the same time, sanctions are clearly hurting countries in western and central Europe who are imposing them.

It is absurd to expect Hungary to starve itself of energy and, as it says, “nuclear bomb” its economy, with no fixed objective or timetable in sight. Sanctions have an awful habit of being hard to dismantle. Worse is to come. Russia’s reaction to sanctions has been to threaten to cut off gas to Europe, further driving up prices to its advantage. It is already blockading the Black Sea ports, from which millions of tons of Ukrainian grain are normally shipped to the outside world. This blockade has seen cereal prices rise 48% on their 2019 base, devastating markets, particularly across Africa. This in turn has increased the value of Russia’s own massive grain exports. Russia has offered to lift the blockade if sanctions are lifted. Whether it means this is moot, but the west cannot be blind to the unintended consequence of its sanctions war.

FULL- https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-energy-prices

What a surprise a left-leaning newspaper thinks Puffy should be allowed to invade who he likes.

Still, we're allowed to have diverse opinions in the UK, so they are free to post their shite even if it is shite.

Had sabang been born earlier, he would have complained about rationing in WW2 and said they should just give Hitler what he wants.

The concerns being rationally expressed are to do with shooting ourselves in the foot, rather than any humanitarian concern for Vlad Putin. The sanctions aren't working, indeed Russia's balance of payments is better than it has ever been. I think they can survive without a Happy meal. Then there is the 'Global south', facing possible starvation.

Originally Posted by sabang

The sanctions aren't working