Thread: The View, from China

The decision has not yet been formally taken, but also in light of the meeting at the White House between the American president Joe Biden and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, our country is destined to abandon the partnership with China on the Silk Road. Formally the memorandum expires in December, but second Alessia Amighinihead of China at ISPI and professor at the University of Eastern Piedmont, will not be renewed.

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After the Baltic States and the Czech Republic, Italy is another European country that is turning its back on China – and it is the first Central European country with a large economy. The Silk Road project did not fail with the exit, but the image damage is great. Because it is a sign of the ever-increasing China skepticism in the West and that Beijing's threat potential has decreased.

You misspelt "whining".

The chinkies guzzling starbucks, KFC and pizza.

Fantastic culture they've got there.

• Biden bans range of US high tech investments in China citing national security risk

Joe Biden on Wednesday signed an executive order that will narrowly prohibit certain US investments in sensitive technology in China and require government notification of funding in other tech sectors.

The long-awaited order authorizes the US treasury secretary to prohibit or restrict certain US investments in Chinese entities in three sectors: semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and certain artificial intelligence systems.

Biden said in a letter to Congress he was declaring a national emergency to deal with the threat of advancement by countries like China “in sensitive technologies and products critical to the military, intelligence, surveillance, or cyber-enabled capabilities”.

The proposal targets investments in Chinese companies developing software to design chips and tools to manufacture them. The US, Japan and the Netherlands dominate those fields, and the Chinese government has been working to build up homegrown alternatives.

The move could fuel tensions between the world’s two largest economies, although US officials insisted the prohibitions were intended to address “the most acute” national security risks and not to separate the two countries’ highly interdependent economies.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer praised Biden’s order, saying: “For too long, American money has helped fuel the Chinese military’s rise. Today the United States is taking a strategic first step to ensure American investment does not go to fund Chinese military advancement.” He says Congress must enshrine restrictions in law and refine them.

Republicans said the Biden order did not go far enough.

although it is nice to see them hurting

Originally Posted by panama hat

Chinese imports and exports are down considerably . . .

Not really something to rejoice nor delve into Schadenfreude as China going down the tube will affect us all very badly

Great for the environment though.

Originally Posted by panama hat

Chinese imports and exports are down considerably . . .

Not really something to rejoice nor delve into Schadenfreude as China going down the tube will affect us all very badly

the Economic long Covid article two posts above yours kind of gives you a reason why

Europe is lucky to be far from China. Otherwise it runs the risk of falling victim to a policy that declares every rock that appears on an early medieval map as lying within the Chinese sphere of influence to be inalienable Chinese territory today. Applied to Europe, this would mean, for example, that Germany would lay claim to northern Italy.

China is a virus that needs to be contained.

Originally Posted by HermantheGerman

China is a virus that needs to be contained.

I prefer to think of it as a parasite that should be eradicated.

Originally Posted by HermantheGerman

China is a virus that needs to be contained.

true.

Hoohoo's lost his mojo. He can barely summon the enthusiasm to post a pointless youtube video.

Ultra-large container vessel made in China delivered

By Global Times

Published: Aug 11, 2023 10:09 PM

"A 24,188 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) ultra-large container ship named "OOCL Felixstowe" was delivered to Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) at the Dalian COSCO KHI Ship Engineering Co (DACKS) shipyard in Northeast China's Liaoning Province on Tuesday, OOCL said in a statement on its website.

Yang Zhijian, chief executive officer of OOCL, said at the delivery ceremony, "We ordered this series of ultra large container vessels not only to provide better services to our customers, but also to enhance our cost competitiveness and to seize the initiative for future development."

With a total length of 400 meters, a width of 61.3 meters, a height of 75 meters, and a design draft of 14.5 meters, the new vessel possesses the capacity to accommodate 24,188 standard containers. It is designed with greatly improved operation efficiency and caters to the green, low-carbon and intelligent development trend in the shipping industry, domestic media outlet The Paper reported.

The ship's maximum load capacity of 228,000 tons also makes it one of the world's largest container ships, according to its manufacturer, Dalian COSCO KHI Ship Engineering Co.

OOCL Felixstowe is the fourth eco-friendly 24,188 TEU vessel received by OOCL in a series of 12, and will be serving the Asia-Europe LL3 service with her sister vessels.

Ultra-large container ships have become signature vessels for leading Chinese shipbuilders.

In April, CSSC, the world's largest shipbuilder, signed an agreement to build 16 super-sized container vessels for French shipping group CMA CGM - the largest single order by value received by a Chinese shipbuilder."

Ultra-large container vessel made in China delivered - Global Times

Great. A boat post.

China suspends youth jobless data after record high readings

China suspended publication of its youth jobless data on Tuesday, saying it needed to review the methodology behind the closely watched benchmark, which has hit record highs in one of many warning signs for the world's second-largest economy.

The decision announced shortly after the release of weaker-than-expected factory and retail sales data sparked rare backlash on social media amid growing frustration about employment prospects in the country.

It also marks the latest move by Chinese authorities to restrict access to key data and information, a trend that is unnerving overseas investors.

Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said the release of data would be suspended while authorities look to "optimise" collection methods.

"In recent years, the number of university students has continued to expand," Fu said. "The main responsibility of current students is studying. Society has different views on whether students looking for jobs before graduation should be included in labour force surveys and statistics."

This issue, as well as the definition of the age range currently set at 16-24, "needs further research," Fu said.

In recent months, China has restricted foreign users' access to some corporate registries and academic journals, and cracked down on due diligence firms operating in the country, a vital source of information on China for overseas businesses.

"The declining availability of macro data may further weaken global investors' confidence in China," said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, adding that youth unemployment was expected to have risen in July.

At the height of its COVID-19 outbreak late last year, China abruptly changed the way it classified deaths from the disease, a move that fueled criticism abroad and at home.

Tuesday's move has also been met with scepticism at home as young Chinese face their toughest summer job-hunting season.

The most recent NBS data on youth unemployment, published last month, showed the jobless rate jumping to a record high of 21.3% in June.

Some 47% of graduates returned home within six months of graduation in 2022, up from 43% in 2018, state-run China News Service reported last week, citing a private-sector survey.

"If you close your eyes then it doesn't exist," one user wrote on microblogging site Weibo, where a hashtag related to NBS' decision received over 10 million views.

"There is a saying called 'burying your head in the sand'," wrote another user.

Poor old chinkies, it's not like they can vote out the blithering idiot in charge.

Chinese authorities have unveiled fresh measures aimed at propping up investor confidence in the country's stock market. The main securities regulator, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said it would introduce a number of measures aimed at making it easier to trade.

These include cuts in the cost of trading, via a reduction in the handling fees charged by brokers, as well as a relaxation of the rules governing share buybacks - making it easier for companies to buy back their shares.
The regulator indicated it is also looking into extending trading hours for the country's stock and bond markets and a possible cut in stamp duty on share trades.
The measures follow sharp reverses this month in both stock and bond markets amid a weakening of confidence among investors.

The CSI 300 index of large cap stocks has fallen by nearly 6% during the last fortnight and is showing a loss for 2023 so far while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng index, which is full of Chinese stocks, has this week suffered its biggest weekly fall in two months and is now in bear market territory (in other words it is down by more than a fifth from its most recent peak).
This loss of confidence reflects a number of factors - most of which are bound up in China's deteriorating economic outlook.
It emerged last week that the world's second-largest economy has lurched into deflation, the phenomenon in which prices consistently fall, depressing spending by households and businesses.

Growth is faltering, with activity depressed in both services and manufacturing, while China's big exporters are under pressure amid weakening demand from the West. This is partly a reflection of consumers spending more on experiences, such as travel and eating out, than on manufactured goods, since economies reopened after the pandemic.

Consumer confidence in China itself remains weak, partly because of deflation, while there are also growing concerns about the levels of youth unemployment in the country. While the headline unemployment rate in China in June - the latest month for which figures are available - stood at 5.3%, for those in the 16-24 age bracket it is currently 21.3%, having risen in each of the last six months. The government has since said that it will stop publishing separate figures for youth unemployment but the increase raises the risk of social unrest in some of China's big cities.

The problems partly reflect rising expectations among China's young - of whom 11.6 million graduated from college or university this year - who are increasingly reluctant to take up the often tiring physical work that their parents did.
They would prefer to work in more highly-paid roles but, due to the sluggish growth in the broader economy, not enough of these jobs are being created.

So many young graduates are opting instead either not to work or to take up a series of short-term roles that see them drifting in and out of the labour market. The People's Bank of China sought to respond to some of these issues this week by cutting a number of its key interest rates.

But the latest lurch downwards in markets this week reflects an additional factor, namely fresh concerns over China's property market, once a major driver of growth in the economy but now a drag on it.
While a number of major property developers have defaulted on their debts in recent times, last week brought news of problems at Country Garden, China's biggest private housebuilder.

The company reported a 60% year-on-year fall in sales for July and also admitted it had missed more than $13m worth of interest payments on its bonds - which it is now seeking to find. The news came as a shock because Country Garden was regarded as a more conservatively run business than its rival Evergrande - which has been teetering on the brink of collapse for two years.

Unlike Evergrande, which was aggressively run, Country Garden had lower debts.

However, the company - which specialises in affordable housing - has been caught out by its more prominent positioning in smaller and less developed cities in China, where house prices have fallen more rapidly during the last year or so than they have in the large conurbations.

Evergrande, meanwhile, has overnight applied for bankruptcy protection in the US courts as it seeks to restructure its billions of dollars' worth of debts.

The woes at Country Garden, in particular, have revived fears that problems in China's property sector could result in contagion to the broader economy and, in particular, the financial sector.

There is also a danger that they further depress sentiment towards the housing market, where activity has been stifled in recent months, despite attempts by the authorities late last year to stimulate activity.

Some analysts suspect the situation at Country Garden, which was today dropped as a constituent of the Hang Seng, may not be all bad news if it prompts the government to introduce fresh economic stimulus. Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics, told clients this week that Beijing could be expected to backstop Country Garden if its problems looked like spiralling into a full-blown credit crunch.

But she added: "The far bigger issue which the Country Garden turmoil highlights is that China's construction sector is in structural decline which policymakers will be unable to prevent.

Chinese authorities attempt to revive flagging economy amid contagion fears | Business News | Sky News

Related to Shutree post yesterday

Evergrande: China property giant files for US bankruptcy protection

Property giant Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US as the real estate crisis in China deepens.

It will allow the heavily-indebted company to protect its assets in the US as it works on a multi-billion dollar deal with creditors.

Evergrande defaulted on its huge debts in 2021, which sent shockwaves through global financial markets.

The move comes as problems in China's property market add to concerns about the world's second largest economy.

China Evergrande Group made the Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection filing in a New York court on Thursday.

Chapter 15 protects the US assets of a foreign company while it works on restructuring its debts.

Evergrande did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the the BBC.

The group's real estate unit has more than 1,300 projects in more than 280 Chinese cities, according to its website.

Its other businesses include an electric car maker and a football club.

Evergrande has been working to renegotiate its agreements with creditors after defaulting on its debt repayments.

With debts estimated to total more than $300bn (£235bn), it was the world's most heavily indebted property developer.

Its shares have been suspended from trading since last year.

Evergrande revealed last month that it lost a combined 581.9bn yuan ($80bn; £62.7bn) over the last two years.

Last week, another major Chinese property giant, Country Garden, warned that it could see a loss of up to $7.6bn for the first six months of the year.

Some of the biggest companies in China's real estate market are struggling to find the money to complete developments.

"The key to this issue is to complete unfinished projects because this will at least keep some of the financing flowing," said Steven Cochrane of economics research firm Moody's Analytics.

He added that many homes are pre-sold but if construction stops, buyers no longer make mortgage payments, which puts more strain on developers' finances.

Earlier this month, Beijing said that China's economy had slipped into deflation as consumer prices declined in July for the first time in more than two years.

Weak growth means China is not facing the rising prices that have rattled many other countries and prompted central bankers elsewhere to sharply increase borrowing costs.

The country's imports and exports also fell sharply last month as weaker global demand threatened the recovery prospects of the world's second-largest economy.

Official figures showed exports fell by 14.5% in July compared with a year earlier, while imports dropped 12.4%.

Earlier this week, China's central bank unexpectedly cut key interest rates for the second time in three months, in a bid to boost the economy.

It actually can collapse just like the Soviet Union did...

China’s economy is going through a rough patch. Growth is slowing and its property bubble has well and truly burst. Unemployment is rising.

So what, you might say? Every country has difficult periods when past excesses catch up with it. Eventually the economic cycle turns and recovery begins. China is the world’s second biggest economy and has grown at a stupendous pace over the past four decades. It plays a pivotal role in the global economy and has invested heavily in advanced manufacturing and AI. Sure, it has problems but it will emerge from them relatively unscathed.

But there are countries that never recover. The Soviet Union was a command economy that collapsed rapidly at the end of the 1980s. In retrospect, it was easy to see why the terminal crisis was going to happen, but it didn’t look that way when the Kremlin was deploying SS20 missiles across eastern Europe a few years earlier.

So here’s the alternative view. China’s economic miracle is over. What’s been happening in the past week – the weakness of the currency, the fall in prices, the financial stress evident in the residential housing sector – are all signs of a deeper malaise that will require the ruling Communist party to undertake structural economic changes that will demand a loosening of rigid political control. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is a self-styled strongman who will not be prepared to make any concessions to freedom and democracy. Sooner or later, China will go the way of the Soviet Union.

This sounds far-fetched, which it is, to an extent. The Soviet Union was a far smaller economy than China and was far less integrated into global supply chains. China matters to the world economy in a way the Soviet Union never did.

As Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research points out, China has generated 41% of the world’s growth in the past 10 years, almost double the 22% contribution from the US, and dwarfing the 9% contribution from the euro area.

“Put another way, of the 2.6% real growth rate of the world economy through the past 10 years, China has generated 1.1 percentage points, while the US and euro area have generated just 0.6 points and 0.2 points respectively.”

China made up such a big slug of global growth because its economy was growing at about 8-9% a year. Its growth rate is now half that – which means its contribution will also have halved to about 0.5 points. What’s more, its growth rate is likely to fall further in the years to come. There are some economists who think its trend rate of growth will be about 2% by the end of the decade, similar to that of the US.

These forecasts may all be wildly premature. Beijing’s aim is to have slower but better balanced and more sustainable growth, and the logic of that is that policymakers should avoid slashing interest rates, boosting state spending and bailing out an overextended property sector at the first hint of trouble. The bullish case for China is that its model of limited economic freedom coupled with political repression have worked since the Deng reforms of the late 1970s and will continue to work in the future given some recalibration.

When he took power in the Soviet Union in 1985, Mikhail Gorbachev had a twin-tracked approach: “glasnost” was the drive for openness and transparency while “perestroika” was the restructuring of the economy to end a long period of stagnation. The Soviet Union’s collapse was the result of more progress being made on glasnost than perestroika, something China’s leaders learned from. They pushed ahead with restructuring but were much less interested in glasnost.

Until now, ranking economic growth over democracy has delivered for China, yet despite the insistence from Beijing’s policymakers that all will continue to be well, there is evidence to suggest those bearish of China’s growth prospects are right. It is not just that the expected strong recovery following the lifting of pandemic lockdown restrictions has fizzled out, because the economy was already displaying signs of sluggishness even before Covid-19 came along.

Writing in Foreign Affairs, Adam Posen, the president of the Petersen Institute for International Economics, said China had been suffering from “economic long Covid” since the middle of the last decade.

Since 2015, bank deposits as a share of China’s GDP have risen by 50%. Private-sector consumption of durable goods is down by about a third versus early 2015, and has continued to decline since the reopening of the economy rather than rise as a result of pent-up demand. Private investment is down by two-thirds since the first quarter of 2015, including a decrease of 25% since the pandemic started.

“Those trends reflect people’s long-term economic decisions in the aggregate, and they strongly suggest that in China, people and companies are increasingly fearful of losing access to their assets and are prioritising short-term liquidity over investment,” Posen says. These fears, he adds, have been heightened by the severity and unrelenting nature of China’s lockdown.

China had some serious problems even before Covid. It had an ageing population and – despite four decades of rapid growth – was still only a middle-income country. Its growth rate was inflated by often wasteful public investment and subsidies to uneconomic enterprises that would otherwise have collapsed.

All that said, a look around the world suggests authoritarian regimes can hold on to power even when growth is weak or inflation is high. Change in China, if it comes, may be gradual rather than rapid and, if so, we should be grateful. The sudden collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a global boom. The sudden collapse of China would trigger a global slump.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ollapse-growth

China had some serious problems even before Covid. It had an ageing population

And yet still massive youth unemployment, which as mentioned earlier means a good chance of social unrest.

We might get another Tiananmen Square slaughter, and this time it won't be so easy to bury.

Originally Posted by bsnub

that will require the ruling Communist party to undertake structural economic changes that will demand a loosening of rigid political control.

And since they are in control, they can loosen the political control, if needed

Originally Posted by bsnub

China made up such a big slug of global growth because its economy was growing at about 8-9% a year. Its growth rate is now half that – which means its contribution will also have halved to about 0.5 points.

Good for the climate, if nothing else.


What does the chinese debt look like, foreign and domestic ?

Kind of important, if their economy is about to "crash". Again

Originally Posted by Norton

it is worth considering that more developed countries, such as the United States, tend, because of their greater relative wealth, to have higher relative debt burdens and can support them more easily than less developed economies, such as China’s.

As for public debt, it could for me as a layman, seem a simpler task, to work on debt in a 'not so developed democracy', than in a country like the US or my own country, where any turn on the tax screw in an upwards direction, is impossible with the current elites in power.

More borrowing and letting future generations solve debt problems, is the answer.

And debt isn't necessarily meant to be paid back, but serviced.

Or so they say ( what they mean is: that austerity is better)

Simply speaking it's got to viewed in the following manner, which indecently, is the truth.

USA = GOOD
China = mafia state, BAD