Thread: President Joe Biden

• NotedDC — White House is Biden’s to lose in 2024, analyst says

The dust isn’t anywhere near settled for this year’s midterms, but already eyes are looking ahead to the next White House race, with major implications for both parties.

While Democrats are bracing for a potential drubbing in next week’s midterms, one prominent political scientist says at this point the next election is President Biden‘s to lose.

“If the Democrats have any hope of winning in 2024, they have to nominate Joe Biden,” American University professor Allan Lichtman told NotedDC.

Lichtman, who has accurately predicted every presidential election dating back to 1984 (with the exception of the controversial 2000 election), said that two years out from the White House battle, the usual figures remain the parties’ best chances.

“On the Republican side there are only two candidates — [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis and [former President] Trump. I don’t see anyone else who has any chance whatsoever,” he said.

The White House and the president have maintained he plans to seek reelection in 2024, but Biden — who turns 80 later this month — is already the oldest president in history and it remains to be seen how the midterms might impact Democrats’ views.

Trump has teased announcing another White House run soon after the midterms, and he’s hit the campaign trail hard in recent weeks stumping for Republican candidates he sees as potential allies.

DeSantis is currently locked in a bid for reelection that will be decided next week, but when asked during a recent debate whether he would commit to a full four-year term, the potential contender for the GOP nomination in 2024 wouldn’t say.

He’s steadily grown his national profile and become a darling of the conservative media. Still, Lichtman says the Florida governor “will not find it easy to consolidate the Trump wing of the Republican Party,” adding, “He just isn’t Trump.”

Lichtman’s model doesn’t rely on polls or issues but instead factors the circumstances around a candidate and which of 13 identified “keys” work to their advantage or disadvantage — from incumbency to social unrest.

Biden’s holding the most “keys” at this point, the professor says.

“He’s got a lot going for him already,” Lichtman said. “I have no prediction yet, but it’s going to be tough for [Biden] to lose six other keys, particularly if the economy is not in recession in the election year.”

Conventional wisdom is that politicians try to let the current elections pass, see what happens and then plot out their futures, but election timelines are increasingly shrinking.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who has stoked speculation that he could jump into the 2024 race if Biden decides not to run, drew attention this week when he took aim at his own party’s messaging.

“We’re getting crushed on narrative. We’re going to have to do better in terms of getting on the offense and stop being on the damn defense,” Newsom told CBS News’s Major Garrett in an interview that aired Wednesday.

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Your “debatable” judgement vs Lichtman's

I am going to side with Lichtman



By the way how many delegates did that wackjob Yang receive before pulling out?

I agree that trump would lose 2024. If he runs. or is allowed to run after an indictment.
What I am concerned with is a second term of 82 year who by the time his term is over will be 86.
The average lifespan of a US male is 77.2 years, as such, even now he is well over his self life.
The math don't lie .
Who I supported and why,does not change any of the above facts