Thread: Brexit - It's Still On!

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

Brexit latest: I'm confused... what just happened?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46551986

Politics is all about numbers and dates.

This week, 650 members of the UK parliament were supposed to vote on the deal Theresa May struck with EU members on how exactly the UK should leave the EU.

Instead, 317 Conservatives had a vote of no confidence in her leadership. She won, but by only 200 votes to 117, leaving her weakened and her party more divided than ever.

What's next?

The government must hold a vote on Mrs May's deal by 21 January or come up with another plan. But with little chance of her winning such a vote and no sign of a Plan B, this looks like a profound political crisis.

The only political crisis here is the one in your empty head. As much as you try to dress things up as being great for the EU, we both know that UKs best option is to walk away, take a little discomfort and go it alone.
Its what you want, so why is the EU trying to make it so hard?
If we stay, we remain a thorn in your side. If we go, you lose our money and our place as leaders of world finance. Not a difficult choice is it? I just wish both sides would get on with it and stop all this fucking around.

Originally Posted by Switch

take a little discomfort and go it alone.

Dream on. : Snigger:

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Oh dear, you seem to have misunderstood the full implication of the pre-clearance process. Coons, Septics, nignogs, Antipodeans and now the British are limited to visits of no more than 90 days within any 6 month period. Those visits will be recorded, and, as referenced by Butters, will also be vetted for criminality. Therefore, all those Brits who have second homes in Spain, France and Portugal or who like to spend the long winter months in some cheap pension/hotel are now fucked. Before, as indeed hundreds of thousands have done for years, folk could just spend as much time there as they wanted because of free movement but now they is fucked in the ass.

Splendid. They'll all take staycations and all that money will go into the British economy instead of being trousered by some wiry dago who doesn't pay tax.

WTO rules will produce tariffs of approximately 4%. Sterling speculation has effectively devalued the currency by about 15%.
Hard Brexit now. We win and the EU chokes on the cream from all the bellends that pretend to run the show.

Originally Posted by Switch

WTO rules will produce tariffs of approximately 4%. Sterling speculation has effectively devalued the currency by about 15%.
Hard Brexit now. We win and the EU chokes on the cream from all the bellends that pretend to run the show.

You really are off your trolley aren't you...

We win??? What do we win? A fooking broken economy with nobody looking our way...

Hard Brexit is a lose-lose situation, which no-one in their right mind would consider as a viable option...but you to carry on with it regardless.

How is it a lose lose situation, we have a massive trade deficit with the EU, we are the single largest importer of German cars, French produce etc. They need access to our markets on favourable terms. Being in the protectionist customs union hurts us as we are unable to import shit cheaper due to EU tariffs. Clean Brexit is nothing to worry about just more bollox from project fear.

There's a reason you know well actually many why economic growth in the EU is lower than the rest of the world.

Originally Posted by Troy

You really are off your trolley aren't you...

We win??? What do we win? A fooking broken economy with nobody looking our way...

Hard Brexit is a lose-lose situation, which no-one in their right mind would consider as a viable option...but you to carry on with it regardless.

Sorry Troy, it’s the one solution that is of no help to you at all. If UK does go down this route, we can expect the EU to cry foul and redouble their efforts to be spiteful and nasty about it.

Tough, just get over yourselves. Added attractions include no requirement for new legislation, it’s exactly what the majority voted for, and payments to the EU cease immediately. No divorce settlement necessary on the grounds of unreasonable behaviour from the EU. Bite me.

Originally Posted by buriramboy

How is it a lose lose situation, we have a massive trade deficit with the EU, we are the single largest importer of German cars, French produce etc. They need access to our markets on favourable terms. Being in the protectionist customs union hurts us as we are unable to import shit cheaper due to EU tariffs. Clean Brexit is nothing to worry about just more bollox from project fear.

This is the often quoted myth that makes a Hard Brexit seem so appealing. However, it is not quite so simple as it is when products are wholly created from within. the UK is currently an integral part of the EU and materials, parts and tools are shipped between the countries quite seamlessly on a daily basis. Brexit is more than a mere spanner jamming up the cogs of the manufacturing industry though. A whopping 80% of UK GDP is based on the service industry and that isn't so well defined under WTO rules. The EU could happily trash the UK service industry to the EU whilst maintaining the WTO tariffs for its goods and the UK would fall ungracefully to its knees. For that reason alone, the UK would need to pay the £39bn Brexit bill, just to secure some sort of free trade agreement with the EU.

Deluded comments like this make me laugh, London is the financial centre of Europe and the world for a reason and this isn't going to change. Frankfurt and Paris can dream about replacing London but it isn't going to happen for numerous reasons. Sure they will take some business but nothing significant and when we are no longer bound by EU rules London will attract a lot more.

^ Hard Brexit = No Passporting Rights...

I imagine the Dutch in Amsterdam thought the same about their financial centre status and the Venetians before that. Nothing is more dangerous than forcing significant changes and expecting your own status to stay the same.

Fine if want to screw themselves with no passporting rights. Nowhere else in the EU can provide the services London does if the protectionist EU wants to make its citizens pay more for te services they receive up to them.

You seem a nice guy Troy and clearly have done well for yourself in whatever your line of work is, I know you've mentioned what it was before but I can't remember but when it comes to Brexit you fail to understand why 17.4 million people voted to leave and how that resolve will have been hardened by EU actions in the negotiations and like all remoaners you fail to address and come up with solutions to satisfy those 17.4 mill who voted to leave.

Have another referendum if you like but you don't accept the result of the first one so why should I believe if leave wins again you'll accept that result? As before the first one that leave wasn't suppose to win we were told by the government it was our decision and the government would respect and implement our decision.

Say remain wins 52-48 next time do we go for best of 3 or 5 where does it end?

Well that's the billion dollar question that no-one has managed to answer. How to satisfy the referendum result without damaging the economy medium to long term. All government reports have found no Brexit solution that doesn't harm the economy.

The Brexit road has led the UK up a blind alley and it's time to go back and start again. At least delay A50 until the right form of Brexit has been agreed. If May can't unite her own party what chance does she have of uniting the commons.

Second referendum is no more than a cop-out. What is required is a cross party debate with a view to bringing a united front on the way forward. No more silly statements like 'Brexit means Brexit', instead tangible and meaningful goals on where the UK wants to be and what relationship it wants with the EU. The whining about money and moaning about EU immigrants without an alternative is just too girlish and childish for a once great nation.

British politics is like watching a little head shaking Indian charming a cobra with his flute, fucking suicidal, unpredictable, and yet fascinating

Brexit: Theresa May told not to 'run down clock' on deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46577359

Theresa May is trying to "run down the clock" and minimise Parliament's role in Brexit, a former minister has said.

Jo Johnson - who resigned as transport minister over the PM's handling of negotiations - said MPs should be given a vote on her Brexit deal next week.

His comments come as Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said it is still possible to get "a version" of Mrs May's Brexit deal approved by Parliament.

Another cabinet minister, Amber Rudd, called for cross-party co-operation.

MPs were due to vote on Mrs May's Brexit deal on Tuesday, but it was postponed when the prime minister admitted it would have been "rejected by a significant margin".

Mr Johnson - who is Boris Johnson's brother but voted Remain in the referendum - said he was concerned by the way Downing Street was treating Parliament.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "No 10 could try to leave that vote until the very last minute.

"Effectively, giving the country, giving Parliament, no choice at all except between her deal... and no deal at all."

Analysis

By BBC political correspondent Tom Barton

A cabinet split? Certainly, a disagreement between senior ministers over the viability of Theresa May's Brexit deal.

Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, telling Radio 4's Today programme that it will be possible to get "a version" of the prime minister's Brexit deal approved by MPs.

Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, openly musing in the Daily Mail that the government needs need "to try something different" because Parliament is currently headed towards "no compromise, no agreement and no deal".

For the foreign secretary, the risk of no deal works as leverage in the UK's attempt to get the EU to reconsider the detail of the Northern Ireland backstop, warning European leaders that "they can't be sure" Parliament would stop it.

For Amber Rudd, it's something which "for the sake of all our futures, mustn't be allowed to happen".

At a Leave Means Leave rally in London on Friday, former UKIP leader Nigel Farage told the BBC it was "outrageous" another referendum could happen, but added: "I can see where we're going."

Mr Farage added the treatment of Mrs May in Brussels this week had been a "shaming moment" for both the UK and the EU and that the prime minister's Brexit deal was now "dead".

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was time "to stop this pretence" and "bring the vote to Parliament".

Originally Posted by buriramboy

How is it a lose lose situation, we have a massive trade deficit with the EU, we are the single largest importer of German cars, French produce etc. They need access to our markets on favourable terms. Being in the protectionist customs union hurts us as we are unable to import shit cheaper due to EU tariffs. Clean Brexit is nothing to worry about just more bollox from project fear.

What you don't understand and the Belgian, asylumguy, squirrel and his apprentice fubar do, is that Frau has gone off the rails and configured her lesser gods to deter others that dare to glance at the exit. As good Socialists it is a trivial sacrifice for their own people and businesses to be hurt in their struggle to create the perfect society; this is collateral damage for the common good.

Anyone that learns anything about history, and especially in the past century, knows that Socialism has been tried many times around the world, and never worked. All it has produced is destruction of wealth, freedom and democracy, massive loss of life, and any reasonable person can see it is the perfect recipe for collective suicide. And the EU gods want more!

so now it's about Socialism? can you Brexiters make up your mind

Originally Posted by Troy

^ Hard Brexit = No Passporting Rights...

I imagine the Dutch in Amsterdam thought the same about their financial centre status and the Venetians before that. Nothing is more dangerous than forcing significant changes and expecting your own status to stay the same.

that was the prize for the whole negotiation things, and will shutdown the UK even from the US

why? because the FCA is under ESMA, and ESMA and US SEC negotiate regulatory reciprocal principles so that international banks have less regulatory burdens on both sides, basically if they satisfy the SEC, they satisfy ESMA and the FCA, and if you satisfy the FCA, you satisfy ESMA and the US SEC for 90% of the regulations out there

with hard Brexit, bye bye FCA

back to square one and that means banks headquartered in London will be fooked on both sides

Originally Posted by Troy

This is the often quoted myth that makes a Hard Brexit seem so appealing. However, it is not quite so simple as it is when products are wholly created from within. the UK is currently an integral part of the EU and materials, parts and tools are shipped between the countries quite seamlessly on a daily basis. Brexit is more than a mere spanner jamming up the cogs of the manufacturing industry though. A whopping 80% of UK GDP is based on the service industry and that isn't so well defined under WTO rules. The EU could happily trash the UK service industry to the EU whilst maintaining the WTO tariffs for its goods and the UK would fall ungracefully to its knees. For that reason alone, the UK would need to pay the £39bn Brexit bill, just to secure some sort of free trade agreement with the EU.

Fair early points, effectively leaving the UK under potentially catastrophic siege by a malicious EU; but that was always on the cards, especially when they can no longer paper over their own cracks.

But at the risk of dragging you into the real world, please clarify what you believe that 39bn (or 59bn) secures, because from here it doesn't secure a clean divorce, or a future travel, trade relationship, or the right to leave the sinking ship, or for that matter anything else beyond the rumour of a handshake on further talks.

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

he is, isn't he ?

if you were swimming in a pool of piss and shit 18 hours a day, it would make you go off like that too

Your insults are getting weaker with repetitive use. Your red repo is meaningless, as are you.

The only passport issue is the proposed EU e visa for tourism. All other problems raised by seeking ass don’t apply. Both sides have already agreed to safeguard the rights of those individuals wherever they may reside now.

With a clean break, one of two scenarios will follow. Reciprocal agreement will come into force to protect travel, trade, security and human rights.
The EU might want to be difficult and apply tariffs but WTO rules don’t allow that. Effectively, they are obliged to get on with it, and it is in their own interest to do so.

Most of the predicted chaos is just bitterness due to losing. It has no basis in fact so both sides will just have to swallow hard and get real.

That includes the idiot Fubar, who keeps living up to his username.

Originally Posted by jabir

But at the risk of dragging you into the real world, please clarify what you believe that 39bn (or 59bn) secures, because from here it doesn't secure a clean divorce, or a future travel, trade relationship, or the right to leave the sinking ship, or for that matter anything else beyond the rumour of a handshake on further talks.

The £39bn is the figure the UK and EU have agreed to cover the UK commitments to the EU up to 2020. There is some scope fr adjustment for a Hard Brexit since the financial commitments during the transition period are included. However, if the UK wants to go down the Hard Brexit route and then secure a free trade agreement with the EU in the future it will need to pay this bill.

That's my take on the issue in my world, which appears not to be the same as your world...