How Putin Checkmated The US In Syria
Sep 26, 2017
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Putin had stood by Assad from the very beginning and protected him in multiple ways. He armed him, protected him on the U.N. Security Council, and sustained Syria’s military and economy. But the intervention was a game changer that signaled Russia’s escalation in Syria.

Today, on balance, Putin achieved virtually everything he wanted in Syria. He kept Assad in power. He entrenched Russia’s military presence in Syria for at least the next 49 years—Russia’s largest military presence outside the former Soviet Union at that. Thus, Putin reduced US ability to maneuver militarily in the region and assured Russia’s influence in one of the most strategically-important countries in the Middle East.
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Most importantly for Putin, he can now showcase cooperation with the West —on his terms. He created a perception of Russia as a great power broker and obtained international recognition for his latest ceasefire initiative in southwest Syria that led to establishment of de-escalation zones after Putin met with Trump in July of this year. Russia, Iran, and Turkey serve as ceasefire guarantors. Putin always resisted Western-protected safe zones in Syria, but a Russia-led ceasefire allows him to preserve his interests in the country.
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It might come as a surprise that during the lowest point in US-Russia relations since the Cold war, new Russian ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov, who is on Ukraine-related EU sanctions list, said after he presented his credentials to President Trump on September 8, “For my part I said that we are looking forward to an improvement in the relations between our two countries.” But Moscow wants to present itself as the voice of reason, and point to the West as the cantankerous one. Moreover Russia needs the West—as both an adversary and a partner. So it seeks to trap the West into cooperation.Too many analysts had believed Putin’s announced “withdrawal” from Syria in March 2016—an example of taking official statements at face value over reality.

The current ceasefire, however flawed, has held so far. Its future—along with Russia’s—remains uncertain. But for as long as the West continues to defer to Moscow in Syria, Putin will have a lot to celebrate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/annabor.../#29412afc767e