history is our guide...
https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...common/588160/In 2002, Russia gave citizenship to locals in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two separatist regions that Georgia claims as its own. Six years later, Russia invaded Georgia, citing, among other reasons, the protection of Russian citizens. Similarly, it recognized as Russians residents of Crimea, the Ukrainian region it annexed in 2014.