Thread: How dangerous is Vladimir Putin?

Attachment 86091


That fat Russian must be Backspin (the right hand is holding a Vodka bottle )

Ukrainians have shown they can out-think, out-influence and out-fight Russia. So what happens if Putin loses?

It has been a fascinating week for those who analyse the war in Ukraine, and western strategy.

First, President Biden sent a request to Congress for $US33 billion ($47 billion) in military, economic and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

Then, the US Congress approved new Lend Lease legislation, a 21st-century version of the American support that was decisive in helping its allies in winning World War II.

Additionally, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin described how "we want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine. They can win if they have the right equipment, and the right support."

This says much about the major shifts in the war over the past two months. Many expected a rapid Russian victory back in February. The Ukrainians have since showed that they can out-think, out-influence and out-fight the Russians.
Nancy Pelosi meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi this week as the US committed $US33 billion in aid.(Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)
The Donbas problem and the nuclear option

The Russians are now struggling to make a breakthrough in their new eastern offensive. Given this, the battlefield effectiveness of the Ukrainian military and the massive flow of western aid to the country, a Ukrainian counter offensive to retake territory captured by the Russians is a near certainty.

If this Ukrainian counter offensive succeeds, it could push the Russians back to where they were on February 24 or even out of the Donbas or Crimea (although the latter is unlikely).
Why Russia is attacking Donbas

After withdrawing its troops from the capital Kyiv, Russia is focusing on the region of Ukraine close to its border.

A soldier holds a gun while patrolling a street.
Read more

This is the nightmare scenario for the Russian military high command. It means they have squandered the lives of somewhere between 10,000 and 20,000 soldiers, with probably tens of thousands more wounded. They have also lost so much military hardware that it will take their defence industry years to replace it.

Importantly, the Russian military leadership may present President Putin options that range from terrible to the most horrific imaginable. Ukrainian success on the battlefield in the east and the south could mean that Russia may have to request an immediate ceasefire or withdraw its forces to its early February positions. Its conventional forces have been found wanting on the eastern plains of Ukraine, and henceforth it would have no credibility as a tool of international influence for Russia and its President.

Another option to avoid total Russian failure on the battlefield is the use of chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons. These might be used to stem Russian loses by destroying concentrations of Ukrainian soldiers or perhaps to force a rapid ceasefire before Russian forces are pushed back to their February 24 lines of departure.

Either way, Russia still "loses". The use of weapons of mass destruction, if Russia's generals don't remove Putin first, would mean that Russia would be a pariah state for years, if not decades, into the future.

It would result in ongoing suffering for the Russian people due to the impact of sanctions that would endure well into the future.

But we should also remember that in the past half century, both Russia (Afghanistan) and the United States (Vietnam, Afghanistan) have lost wars without resorting to nuclear weapons. It remains a small possibility.
A man takes a photo as a man and woman pose in front of a destroyed tank in a field
The debris of Russian military machinery is clear evidence of the impact of Ukraine's army.(Reuters: Vladyslav Musiienko)
The impact on China and Xi's unpredictable reaction

What of the geopolitical impacts of a Russian loss? Perhaps the biggest loser would be China. The Russia-China "friendship" over the past several years has been constructed on a shared world view that the West in general (and the US in particular) is in decline.

This relationship is also built on a shared view of the need for a different world order than the post-World War II system built by the victors (including Russia and China).

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping toast each other with vodka glasses
Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin have shared a close alliance but how would a Russian defeat affect it?(AP: Sergei Bobylev/TASS)

A weakened Russia could also become a client state of China. With massive mineral and energy reserves, Russia is an important strategic partner for China.

But there is another side to a Russian loss for China.

A Russian loss would upset President Xi's efforts to persuade other nations that there are other models of governance that work besides Western democratic models. It would be a blow to Xi's personal credibility because he invested in a relationship with a Russian President who is now a proven loser.

And it would also have an impact on Chinese aspirations for Taiwan – Ukraine's tenacious defence has inspired the Taiwanese and re-energised international support for the small island democracy.

Finally, the unity achieved in Europe and many other western nations in supporting Ukraine is a setback to Xi's narrative about the decline of the west. It has sidelined Chinese influence. As Craig Singleton has written recently, "Chinese President Xi Jinping has been reduced to a bystander seemingly at the mercy of decisions made not in Beijing but in Washington, Brussels, and, more importantly, Moscow."

Analysts will be watching the words and actions of President Xi closely in the coming weeks. Chinese state media already amplifies Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine. Will Xi decide that a failed Russian invasion has too great an impact on China's global aspirations? And if so, is he willing to risk US sanctions to provide aid to Russia?

LIVE UPDATES: Read our blog for the latest news on the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The delicate diplomatic reaction to Russia's possible defeat

Even if the war were to end tomorrow, Russia would be a much weaker and poorer nation than it was on February . The damage it has wrought in Ukraine has been massive and obvious, but the magnitude of its own losses – physical, moral and reputational – will take years to overcome.
Why Donbas could determine Putin's fate

Nearly two months since he launched his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is facing heavy troop losses, ruinous sanctions and rumours of purges.
Vladimir Putin standing in front of a row of Russian troops in dress uniforms
Read more

It is likely, regardless of the outcome, to be a much more embittered nation, fuelled with narratives of NATO predations on Russia while struggling to juggle the impacts of western sanctions. This makes it weak but also dangerous. Because despite any loss, it still has a very different world view and huge stockpiles of nuclear weapons.

While the intention of the US administration may be to weaken Russia so that it can no longer threaten its neighbours, this must be a very carefully calibrated victory. The 20th century has examples of the right ways and wrong ways to treat defeated nations. We must learn from these. Because, if the Russians are weakened too much in defeat, they may become a much more dangerous nation. And that is in none of our interests.

Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general, who remains in the reserves. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st century warfare.

https://www.abc .net.au/news/2022-05-03/war-ukraine-russia-donbas-nuclear-china-diplomacy-west-strategy/101030510

A major part of Russian (Putin) reasoning for this misadventure, was to prevent another country on its doorstep, with a shared border, from gaining access to NATO support and association.

How Will Russia (Putin) react when Finland applies to join NATO? Does Finland have any Nazis, or disaffected Russian minorities?

I think Putin said (or threatened) to station nukes in Kalingrad if Finland or Sweden joined Nato.

Originally Posted by sabang

I think Putin said (or threatened) to station nukes in Kalingrad if Finland or Sweden joined Nato.

As if they haven't got any there already.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

As if they haven't got any there already.

Well, some people actually believe what the war criminal says

Not sure that THE LORD can retain the thread's title any more.

Russia's MFA announced the interview sought by the venerable Spanish publication "A-Be-Se"

05/05/2022

One question from the interviewer to the Russian spokeswoman, there are many others:

Question:

Why was Russia able to use force in Chechnya, Georgia, and now Ukraine, and Kiev cannot do the same with regard to Donetsk and Lugansk?

Maria Zakharova:
The Georgian authorities attacked South Ossetia and killed Russian peacekeepers.

It is interesting that they remembered the situation in Chechnya. These are completely different situations.

Chechen militants used terrorist methods, committed terrorist attacks in Chechnya itself and other subjects of the Russian Federation. And they were considered democratic forces and supported in the US and the EU.

Do you remember what the reaction of the international community was then? Everyone supported the separatists – although they were not separatists, but international terrorists. The first in Europe, by the way. T

The United States, Britain, and European countries then called them freedom fighters.

Now I have a question:

Why didn't the West call the residents of Donbass "freedom fighters"?

After all, they are not terrorists.

And it was difficult to call them separatists, since in the Minsk agreements, which were signed by the DPR and LPR, Donbass was called part of Ukraine.

And in general, the entire Minsk package of measures is about how the DPR and LPR will live as part of Ukraine.

So why didn't the West support them?

more at:

https://vk.com/@580896205-maria-zakh...-spanish-media

Originally Posted by OhOh

more russian propaganda bollocks at:

https://vk.com/@580896205-maria-zakh...-spanish-media

FTBFY.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

As if they haven't got any there already.

Why highlight the NaGastan Aegis missile launchers, capable of firing nuclear tipped cruise missiles, in Europe. Redzikowo, Poland, and Deveselu, Romania,

Aegis System:

Aegis Missile System

"Refinement of the initial concept of Aegis system in the 1960s continued through the 1960s and 1970s, and the Mk 41 was conceived in 1976.^[2] Originally, the system was only intended to fire the RIM-66 Standard missile, but the height of the Mk 41 was increased to accommodate the larger Tomahawk missile.^[2] The prototype for the launcher was tested and evaluated on board USS Norton Sound. The first operational launcher was installed aboard USS Bunker Hill.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_41_Vertical_Launching_System


Nuclear tipped cruise missile.

Report to Congress on Sea-launched Nuclear Cruise Missile

April 27, 2022 11:50 AM

"In its FY2023 budget request, the Navy eliminated funding for research and development into a new nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N). The Navy indicated that the program was “cost prohibitive and the acquisition schedule would have delivered capability late to need.” According to the Navy, this cancellation would save $199.2 million in FY2023 and $2.1 billion over the next five years.

SLCM-N was one of two systems that the 2018 NPR identified as a way to “strengthen deterrence of regional adversaries.” The Navy deployed a low-yield version (with less than 10 kilotons, rather than 100 kilotons, of explosive power) of the W76 warhead on its long-range submarine-launched ballistic missile in 2019 (see CRS In Focus IF11143, A Low-Yield, Submarine-Launched Nuclear Warhead: Overview of the Expert Debate, by Amy F. Woolf). The Navy conducted an Analysis of Alternatives in support of the SLCM-N from 2019-2021, and expected to begin the development of the missile in 2022 and achieve operational capability late in the 2020s.

In its FY2022 budget request, the Biden Administration sought $5.2 million in DOD funding for research and development into the missile and $10 million for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to work on a warhead that would be carried by the SLCM-N. At the same time, the Administration indicated that it would review the program as a part of its NPR.
A
fter the Navy eliminated funding for SLCM-N in its FY2023 budget request, some Members of Congress asked General Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Secretary of Defense Austin whether they supported the decision. General Milley said he continued to support SLCM-N because the President “deserves to have multiple options to deal with national security situations.” But he later noted that the United States has “lots of options and we have a significant nuclear capability.”

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/27/rep...cruise-missile

Ranking HASC special forces member says SLCM-N, B83 deletes not happening

May 02, 2022

By ExchangeMonitor

"President Joe Biden’s plans to cease development of a nuclear-tipped, sea-launched cruise missile and to cancel a refresh for the B83 megaton-capable gravity bomb won’t make it through Congress, a key Republican House member predicted Monday."

https://www.exchangemonitor.com/rank...not-happening/

Originally Posted by OhOh

Why highlight the NaGastan Aegis missile launchers

Possibly because the chances of the US going to war with Finland are significantly lower than those of Russia waging war against it.

Did you not do history at school, or did they not let village idiots in?

Winter War - Wikipedia.

Is he related to the Ghost of Kiev? I kinda doubt Vlad would go under the knife 4 days before the May 9 Victory day holiday.

Originally Posted by sabang

Is he related to the Ghost of Kiev? I kinda doubt Vlad would go under the knife 4 days before the May 9 Victory day holiday.

Hopefully it's something serious.

Typical Putin, throw his lackey under the bus when he was only doing what he was told.

“The Prime Minister accepted President Putin’s apology for Lavrov’s remarks and thanked him for clarifying his attitude towards the Jewish people and the memory of the Holocaust,” the statement said.

Putin Apologizes for Lavrov’s Holocaust Comments, Israeli PM’s Office Says | Jewish & Israel News Algemeiner.com

Poor old Vlad, it's all going horribly wrong.

Finland is prepared for the possibility of Russia cutting off its gas deliveries, Minister of European Affairs Tytti Tuppurainen tells Reuters, ahead of the Nordic country's decision on whether to join NATO. Helsinki said on April 28 it would not abide by Moscow's demand for gas payments to be made in rubles.
Finland is maintaining alternative energy sources, Tuppurainen says, and will lease a floating LNG terminal with Estonia. Roughly 60%-70% of the gas used in Finland originates from Russia. But it accounted for little more than 5% of the country's total energy consumption last year, Statistics Finland's preliminary data shows.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Poor old Vlad, it's all going horribly wrong.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Vladimir Putin is set to undergo cancer surgery

One can only hope . . . Russian doctors, hospitals etc. . .

His successor would be even worse, to your way of thinking.

Originally Posted by sabang

His successor would be even worse, to your way of thinking.

You have no way of knowing that, besides you are really shit at making predictions.

Originally Posted by sabang

His successor would be even worse, to your way of thinking.

An extremist would be worse, in 'my' thinking but not yours . . . sure, sabang, dance on more graves of children and other innocents.

Originally Posted by sabang

His successor would be even worse, to your way of thinking.

When he goes the whole authoritarian house of cards comes crashing down.

They can have free and fair elections for a start, and the candidates might actually not get jailed or killed.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

They can have free and fair elections for a start, and the candidates might actually not get jailed or killed.

I'm not sure about free and fair as it is still Russia, Europe's political basket case, but not jailed or killed is already an improvement . . . though that would give sabang and hWoe less reason to be thrilled

More war crimes to add to puffy's list, if he doesn't die of cancer of course.

Sixty people are feared dead under rubble after a Russian bomb hit a school in eastern Ukraine.
About 90 people were sheltering in the building when the bomb struck, causing a fire to engulf it on Saturday, the governor of the Luhansk region said.
Two people have been confirmed dead and 60 others are "likely to have died under the rubble", Serhiy Gaidai wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
Thirty people have been rescued, seven of whom were injured, he added.

Ukraine war: 60 feared dead under rubble after Russian bomb hits school in Luhansk | World News | Sky News

Have they found the 300+ bodies said to be under the Mariupol theatre yet? Or have they Risen?

Originally Posted by sabang

Have they found the 300+ bodies said to be under the Mariupol theatre yet? Or have they Risen?

Crude.

AP Methodology: Calculating Mariupol theater airstrike dead | AP News