Thread: Contact lost with Malaysia Plane.

Originally Posted by nidhogg

Why the hell did he not wait the few more hours for confirmation before broadcasting this around?

Been the biggest problem from day one. Too many politicians spouting off unconfirmed BS.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Aus probably shot it down thinking it to be full of asylum seekers?

Yes there was 2 on board

They are right to report the find and right to give caution. That's what press conferences are for. Otherwise there are guaranteed to be leaks and some "unnamed source" saying that the plane has been found.

They are handling it perfectly.

Did you notice the way the media question re the Chinese ship was deflected ?????

Also
The Chinese ship was there way before anyone else ??????
What did they know that no one else did ?

I guess they had Satellites like the US has.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

They are right to report the find and right to give caution. That's what press conferences are for. Otherwise there are guaranteed to be leaks and some "unnamed source" saying that the plane has been found.

I'd agree.

Imagine Thailand were in the same position . . . well, no-one could understand anything they'd say for a start . . . they'd have to be able to speak a modicum of English for that to happen

Editor's note: Chris Goodfellow, who says he has been a pilot for 20 years, posted a theory of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet that has gone viral after numerous media have picked it up. Here is Goodfellow's post, unedited, in its entirety on his Google+ account.

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A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event.

Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off.

MORE COVERAGE
Source: Missing jet likely in Southern Indian Ocean
Thai radar might have tracked missing plane
Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest.

The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.

Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport.

For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.

If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly).

What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless.

This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.

Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too.

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.

Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.

Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time.


Read more at Veteran pilot's theory on missing plane goes viral

The North Sentinel Island is among the Andaman and Nicobar Islands which is a group of 572 islands in the Bay of Bengal between Myanmar and Indonesia. These islands were formally a part of the Republic of India. However India has declared a few of these islands including the North Sentinel Island closed to the outsiders in order to preserve the distinct culture of these lands.



The North Sentinel Island is home to the Sentinels, a small tribe who is noted for vigorously resisting attempts of contact by outsiders and has inhabited the island for thousands of years. The island is completely untouched by modern civilization and its inhabitants kill any outsiders who try to get too close to their land. No one has ever gone or left this island without fleeing immediately or being slaughtered by the Sentinelese upon arrival. They drive off fishermen, journalists, anthropologists and government officials with their spears and arrows.



Origin
They are said to be directly descended from the first human populations to emerge from Africa, and have probably lived in the Andaman Islands for up to 60,000 years. Possibly no other people on this earth are as isolated, as the Sentinelese. Their present numbers are estimated to be anywhere between 50 and 400 individual. The 28 square mile island is roughly the size of Manhattan and is low-lying, heavily forested and protected by a barrier of coral reefs.



The fact that their language is so different even from other Andaman islanders suggests that they have had little or no contact with the other people for thousands of years. The Sentinelese maintain an essentially hunter-gathering society, obtaining their subsistence through hunting, fishing, and collecting wild plants; there is no evidence of any agricultural practices.

Attempts To Contact:
The first real threat to the natives of North Sentinel Island appeared in 1858, when the British established a penal colony at Port Blair on nearby South Andaman Island to pacify the local tribes. They would kidnap a member of an unfriendly tribe, hold him for a short period, treat him well, and then shower him with gifts and let him return to his people.

In 1880 a large, heavily-armed party led by 20-year-old Maurice Vidal Portman, the British colonial administrator, landed on North Sentinel and made what is believed to be the first exploration of the island by outsiders. Several days passed before they made contact with any Sentinelese, because tribe members disappeared into the jungle whenever strangers approached. Finally, after several days on the island, the party stumbled across an elderly couple who were too old to run away, and several small children. Portman brought the two adults and four of the children back to Port Blair. But the man and the woman soon started to get sick and then died, probably from exposure to Western diseases like smallpox, measles, and influenza, to which they would have had little or no resistance. So Portman returned the four children to North Sentinel Island and released them with gifts for the rest of the tribe. The children disappeared into the jungle and were never seen again.

Since 1967 Indian authorities have attempted to make peaceful contact with the Sentinelese under the auspices of anthropological research. Small parties in the early 1970s were turned away by arrows. A documentary team and some police officers got the same fierce welcome in 1974: The film’s director took an 8-foot-long arrow in the thigh.

Some government-sponsored groups made brief trips to the island in the late 1980s and early ’90s, largely under the direction of the Indian anthropologist T.N. Pandit. Mr. Pandit and his colleagues left gifts of coconuts, knives, cloth, candy, aluminum cookware, mirrors, rubber balls, beaded necklaces, plastic buckets. (video here)
Some Unintentional Contacts:
When a Hindu convict escaped in 1896, he drifted 30 miles on a makeshift raft and washed up on North Sentinel. A search party found his body a few days later on a beach, punctured by arrows and his throat cut.

Other unintentional encounters include on August 2, 1981,a Hong Kong freighter navigating the choppy waters of the Bay of Bengal ran aground on a submerged coral reef. The ship, called the Primrose, was hopelessly stuck. The crew stayed on their boat for a few days, when the saw native people advancing towards their ship, armed with spears, bows and arrows .The captain made a distress call via radio and the crew were airlifted to safety by helicopter.

The last recorded contact with the Sentinelese was in 2006, when the Sentinelese archers killed two fishermen who were fishing illegally within range of the island. The archers later drove off, with a hail of arrows, the helicopter that was sent to retrieve the bodies.



The Sentinelese even survived the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the deadliest in recorded history, with few or no casualties. Thought the tsunami killed more than 230,000 people in surrounding countries, it appears that the Sentinelese were able to sense the coming of the tsunami and escape to higher ground before it arrived. When an Indian Navy helicopter arrived three days after to check on their well-being and drop food parcels on the beach, a Sentinelese warrior came out of the jungle and warned the helicopter off with a bow and arrow, a clear sign that the Sentinelese did not want help from outsiders.(image courtesy: © Indian Coastguard/Survival)
Today anyone with a laptop and internet access can use Google Earth to spy on places that are not meant to be seen by outsiders. But when you look down on North Sentinel Island in the Bay of Bengal, all you can make out is the wreck of the Primrose, still stuck on the reef. You can't see the Sentinelese, their dwellings, or anything else that might shed light on how many people there are on the island, or how they live there. The dense jungle that covers every inch of the island except the beaches conceals everything: Even when viewed from outer space, the Sentinelese remains free from prying eyes.

Read more: The North Sentinel Island : One of the most isolated and unwelcomed places on the Earth.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Editor's note: Chris Goodfellow, who says he has been a pilot for 20 years, posted a theory of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet that has gone viral after numerous media have picked it up. Here is Goodfellow's post, unedited, in its entirety on his Google+ account.

<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----

A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event.

Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off.

MORE COVERAGE
Source: Missing jet likely in Southern Indian Ocean
Thai radar might have tracked missing plane
Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest.

The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.

Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport.

For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.

If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly).

What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless.

This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.

Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too.

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.

Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.

Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time.


Read more at Veteran pilot's theory on missing plane goes viral

This I agree with.

i just saw on the news, Two 20 metre pieces of debris have been spotted by satellite off the West coast of Oz in the Indian ocean.

This could be it

I like the theory above,the tin hat brigade will hate it, but I reckon it's aon the right track.

Well I really hope this is the plane, not only to help the families, but also to stop all the so-called experts coming up with theories that vaguely fit the few facts available.

I still think it was deliberate action on the part of one of the flight crew; if it was a fire serious enough to disable everything, the aircraft would have gone down near where it was last seen south of Vietnam.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Well I really hope this is the plane, not only to help the families, but also to stop all the so-called experts coming up with theories that vaguely fit the few facts available.

aint that the truth

then you go and ruin it by writing your own load of bollocks

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

I still think it was deliberate action on the part of one of the flight crew; if it was a fire serious enough to disable everything, the aircraft would have gone down near where it was last seen south of Vietnam.

we will soon know what happened if they have found it.My thoughts are with the families now and hopefully for them this isnt another red herring

Originally Posted by Bobcock

I like the theory above,the tin hat brigade will hate it, but I reckon it's aon the right track.

I don't like it for a couple of reasons.

Planes have multiple redundant systems. For a fire to take out the radios, transponders and satellite coms and then still leave the aircraft capable of long duration flight is unlikely. Additionally, that the ACARS was disabled but still kept pinging the Sat means the underlying system wasn't damaged. Just turned off.

Second, if there was smoke and a fire, the co pilot would go to investigate and if needed start pulling breakers.
The pilot is still flying the plane, he would have plenty of time to make a quick radio call and report smoke and a possible fire before everything went to shit..

does anyone know how long it will take for these military aircraft to get to the location ?

Originally Posted by Dillinger

does anyone know how long it will take for these military aircraft to get to the location ?

They said 2pm aussie time, so they have been there for a while.

Just saw on CNN, 2hrs 45 mins from Perth.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

They are right to report the find and right to give caution.

Suppose so. Expect there is some very compelling evidence or doubt the announcement would be made.

This gets more bizarre by the day. A plane, heading for China, ends up off the coast of Australia. What?

Originally Posted by Dillinger

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Well I really hope this is the plane, not only to help the families, but also to stop all the so-called experts coming up with theories that vaguely fit the few facts available.

aint that the truth

then you go and ruin it by writing your own load of bollocks

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

I still think it was deliberate action on the part of one of the flight crew; if it was a fire serious enough to disable everything, the aircraft would have gone down near where it was last seen south of Vietnam.

we will soon know what happened if they have found it.My thoughts are with the families now and hopefully for them this isnt another red herring

There doesn't appear to be any doubt that the plane was deliberately taken off course. So it's simply a question of why? Fire doesn't cut it for me.

Just saw the pictures on Sky - hard to say what they have photographed there but it appear to be white and we know it's about 24m long.

Not very clear images.

Originally Posted by Bobcock

I like the theory above,the tin hat brigade will hate it, but I reckon it's aon the right track.

The tin hat brigade has been saying all along that the plane simply smashed into the sea, most likely technical failures, and that all the ensuing hullabaloo is being artificially created to detract attention from other news stories, as well as to create some "terror".

It seems we are, again, right.

There's a group of Morons (Breaking Obama) on FB saying that the plane is in Pakistan and this is a red herring allowing for time to negotiate the passengers back and have the plane returned anonymously.

Originally Posted by Gilbert

Originally Posted by Bobcock

I like the theory above,the tin hat brigade will hate it, but I reckon it's aon the right track.

The tin hat brigade has been saying all along that the plane simply smashed into the sea, most likely technical failures, and that all the ensuing hullabaloo is being artificially created to detract attention from other news stories, as well as to create some "terror".

It seems we are, again, right.

No, the tin foil hat brigade have been saying the plane was kidnapped for its cargo, the ten chip engineers, and sundry other loads of baloney.