American Market Downtown within 16 weeks

[barbaro]

The American stock / equity market will see a downturn within 16 weeks.

Today is August 10th, 2013.

10-year bonds are up about 40%, and interest rates will be inching up further IMO.

Much more to come, but here is an article for starters.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemu...est-rates-101/

Here below is a podcast with James Fitzgibbons. Ignore the interviewer and listen to James. Note that Marc Faber has been saying the same things.

http://nyc.podcast.play.it/media/d0/...dG/13E6G_4.MP3

[barbaro]

The Hindenburg Omen

'Hindenburg Omen' hovering over Wall Street again


Published: Monday, 12 Aug 2013
By: Jeff Cox | Senior Writer


Source: Wikipedia

The Hindenburg burning.

Jittery Wall Street traders are looking up in the sky and seeing Hindenburgs.
That can be a bad thing for markets, which have suffered in the past when the tripwires associated with the "Hindenburg Omen" get activated.
Market veteran Art Cashin said Monday that the market phenomenon is looming again.

"There have been multiple occurrences of the Hindenburg Omen in the last several weeks," Cashin, the director of floor operations at UBS, said in his morning note.



(Read more: The stock market's line in the sand—S&P 1,700)
To demonstrate, he cited research from SentimenTrader's Jason Goepfert, who has been warning about Hindenburg dangers all summer.
From his most recent findings:

Sometimes a topic in the market takes hold and it's hard to shake it off. One of those is the technical "market crash" signal called the Hindenburg Omen.

It has its boosters and its detractors, and we're not going to get caught up in debating its merits. We've discussed it for 12 years, always with the same arguments.

On June 10th, we outlined the market's historical performance after suffering at least 5 signals from the Hindenburg Omen within a two-week period. Stocks were consistently weak afterward, and proved to be so again, at least for a while.

With the latest market rally, the Omens are flaring up again.There have been 5 Omens triggered out of the past 8 trading sessions (your data may vary—we're using the same sources we've always used for historical data). That's actually the closest-grouped cluster since early November 2007.

It's extremely rare to see as many Omens occurring together as we've seen over the past 50 days. The last time was prior to the bear market in 2007.

The time before that was prior to the bear market in 2000.

The most commonly cited Hindenburg factor is when an unusually high number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange hit 52-week highs and lows.
Others include when the NYSE index is higher than it was 50 days ago; when market breadth is negative, and when new highs are less than new lows. Traditional thinking is that all the indicators must occur on the same day, though interpretations vary.

'Hindenburg Omen' hovering over Wall Street again

[leemo]

The biggie will happen in 2016. That's when the Messiah ascends to Paradise against a background of rubble.

[barbaro]

I am basing my opinion on info that I can find on the web.

Many different sources It is human psychology + factual technical and statistical occurances..

16 weeks is a bad call. It could be a couple of months beyond that.

But I believe, there will be a downturn, because it is a normal phenomenon

[leemo]

The markets appear to be evolving towards increased and greater volatility and with higher frequency 'corrections'. This is fine for the big money but not for small investor that props them up.

I believe any downturn later this year will be mild compared to 2016, which will stun the sheeple out of their stupor.

[alitongkat]

where have you got the 2016 from ?

[leemo]

Obama leaves WH, job finished as best he could.

[Albert Shagnastier]

The biggie will happen in 2016. That's when the Messiah ascends to Paradise against a background of rubble.

Already happened in 2012 but to be honest, I haven't seen much of an improvement as of yet.

[leemo]

2012 he had some obligation to the people - not the country, which he hates - for their collaboration to win a second term. Now his only obligations are ideological, so expect his future conduct to mirror first term lies, duplicity, corruption, and Jihadi determination to install as many Islamist governments as possible whilst leaving Israel as weak as plausibly possible.

Three years, and you will not recognise the America of 8 years ago.

[Neo]

There's been an upturn?

[Humbert]

2012 he had some obligation to the people - not the country, which he hates - for their collaboration to win a second term. Now his only obligations are ideological, so expect his future conduct to mirror first term lies, duplicity, corruption, and Jihadi determination to install as many Islamist governments as possible whilst leaving Israel as weak as plausibly possible.

Three years, and you will not recognise the America of 8 years ago.

What does this have to do with the OP?

The US markets have made big gains this year. As long as the Fed keeps their existing policies in place the markets will continue to have upside momentum. That does not mean that corrections will not occur.

[Albert Shagnastier]

2012 he had some obligation to the people - not the country, which he hates - for their collaboration to win a second term. Now his only obligations are ideological, so expect his future conduct to mirror first term lies, duplicity, corruption, and Jihadi determination to install as many Islamist governments as possible whilst leaving Israel as weak as plausibly possible. Three years, and you will not recognise the America of 8 years ago.

Sorry man, I thought you were talking about Jesus

[youneverknow]

Not sure how I feel about the markets this time. I listened to the podcast and it all seems to be build on the fed printing money and jobs and that money going overseas. The American worker has little to gain from it all. Still, markets reflect companies which may or may not do the majority of their business in the US these days. The owners of those companies are probably mostly made up of America's top 10 percent. So the markets don't necessarily reflect the way the nation as a whole is.

Also in the podcast the speakers seem to think that the rest of the world is going to give up on the dollar at some point. It's probably going to happen but not in one day. I expect that major corporations in other nations will rise up to compete with western corporations but a lot of foreign investors are supplying capital to a lot of these budding corps. They could eventually cut out the foreigners but if they don't a lot of foreigners are going to make money as these corps rise.

Not sure about it all. 16 weeks? Sounds a bit like another doomsday prophet speaking but you never know.

[leemo]

...Not sure about it all. 16 weeks? Sounds a bit like another doomsday prophet speaking but you never know.

The doomsday prophets will rejoice in 3 years for finally getting it right.

Won't be the end of the world, but won't be pretty either.

[Rainfall]

Is the election of a Republican president a Hindenburg Omen? That always meant trouble. The only president who produced 2 catastrophic stock-market crashes was Bush Jr.

[barbaro]

There's been an upturn?

S & P at record levels.

I communicate with a hedge fund manager who just resigned. He does not know "secrets" but he knows a lot of things and trends and he has been accurate for a couple of years.

He is taking time off.

[barbaro]

2012 he had some obligation to the people - not the country, which he hates - for their collaboration to win a second term. Now his only obligations are ideological, so expect his future conduct to mirror first term lies, duplicity, corruption, and Jihadi determination to install as many Islamist governments as possible whilst leaving Israel as weak as plausibly possible.

Three years, and you will not recognise the America of 8 years ago.

What does this have to do with the OP?

The US markets have made big gains this year. As long as the Fed keeps their existing policies in place the markets will continue to have upside momentum. That does not mean that corrections will not occur.

It looks like Bernanke and the Fed will start tapering down these QEs and purchases.

Interesting to see what will happen, if anything.

[barbaro]

Is the election of a Republican president a Hindenburg Omen? That always meant trouble. The only president who produced 2 catastrophic stock-market crashes was Bush Jr.

Those crashes were because of many things such as de-regulation, greed, corruption, and poltical promotion by both parties.

[Rainfall]

Well, I guess Obama restored the value of your 401k by about doubling the Dow Jones under his watch, but if a Republican nutter emerges victorious in 2016, it's high time to reassess it.

[barbaro]

Well, I guess Obama restored the value of your 401k by about doubling the Dow Jones under his watch, but if a Republican nutter emerges victorious in 2016, it's high time to reassess it.

Studies have been conducted for 120 years.

Presidents in general, do not affect stock markets.

[Rainfall]

There has been a correlation between democratic presidents during bull markets, and bear markets for the tenure of Republicans for more than a century. Your money, up to you what you believe in.

[youneverknow]

There's been an upturn?

I communicate with a hedge fund manager who just resigned. He does not know "secrets" but he knows a lot of things and trends and he has been accurate for a couple of years.

.

Huh? A couple of years.

[leemo]

2012 he had some obligation to the people - not the country, which he hates - for their collaboration to win a second term. Now his only obligations are ideological, so expect his future conduct to mirror first term lies, duplicity, corruption, and Jihadi determination to install as many Islamist governments as possible whilst leaving Israel as weak as plausibly possible.

Three years, and you will not recognise the America of 8 years ago.

What does this have to do with the OP?

The US markets have made big gains this year. As long as the Fed keeps their existing policies in place the markets will continue to have upside momentum. That does not mean that corrections will not occur.

It looks like Bernanke and the Fed will start tapering down these QEs and purchases.

Interesting to see what will happen, if anything.

Bernanke caused a recent swoon by saying the Fed would ease up on QE, but then tempered it by adding they would continue printing QE $$ funny money till around mid-2014 by which time the economy is projected to be strong enough to absorb the shock of no more freebies.

Right now, with markets still volatile but with an upside trend in recovery mode from the last 'correction', it's only confidence that's holding it all together, but that confidence rests largely on the prospect of continued life support drawing on a flimsy hope that the future will, or might, take care of itself.

[barbaro]

There's been an upturn?

I communicate with a hedge fund manager who just resigned. He does not know "secrets" but he knows a lot of things and trends and he has been accurate for a couple of years.

.

Huh? A couple of years.

I have only been communicating with him for a couple of years.

He was out of Chicago, and recently sold his partnership.

[barbaro]

Momentum is setting up:

List of worries in September is about to get longer

List of worries in September is about to get longer


Treasuries Slide as Factory Gains Spur Fed Tapering Speculation

By Susanne Walker & Cordell Eddings - 2013-09

Treasuries fell the most in almost two weeks as a gauge of U.S. manufacturing rose more than forecast in August, re

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ope-china.html


Investors say good riddance to August

By CNNMoney Staff @CNNMoneyInvest August 30, 2013: 4:07 PM ET

• Email Print

Click chart for more market data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Is it September yet?

Investors said goodbye to a brutal August, the cruelest month for stocks during an otherwise sunny 2013.



http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/30/inve...html?iid=HP_LN