Thread: Rubber trees 101

I was thinking about a centralize processing facility where we supply all the kit to do it, ie machines, tins, water drainage. etc... They buy the chemicals, off us maybe?
They bring the yang to us and process it themselves, we take a cut of the increased value.

Originally Posted by the dogcatcher

I was thinking about a centralize processing facility where we supply all the kit to do it, ie machines, tins, water drainage. etc... They buy the chemicals, off us maybe?
They bring the yang to us and process it themselves, we take a cut of the increased value.

Can't work. you need big turn over and lots of machines as everyone will want to process before noon. Have heard of Thai trying this, at one or 2 Baht a kilo, All have gone down the tube.

You have to do the numbers and be very careful of the taxman, he is a bad man and can close you down in 5 minutes, plus whack a big fine, or jail time.

PM me our e mail, can't really say how the rubber system works on here. Jim

Why noon?

Originally Posted by the dogcatcher

Why noon?

Typo midday 12 0'clock, when the sun is high and I have to to go to bed now. Have a Kiwi visitor and he has plied me with aLOCHOL.

After our new record of least amount of taps per fortnight this week, another new record - lowest price ever received in 3 season's cutting - 37 baht 65 fucking satang per kg, kee yang, auction, Udon. Does it get any fucking worse? Profanities allowed due to me being PISSED OFF. Off to England next week for a couple of months, rainy season hopefully finished when i get back, so can resume tapping when we want.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

After our new record of least amount of taps per fortnight this week, another new record - lowest price ever received in 3 season's cutting - 37 baht 65 fucking satang per kg, kee yang, auction, Udon. Does it get any fucking worse? Profanities allowed due to me being PISSED OFF. Off to England next week for a couple of months, rainy season hopefully finished when i get back, so can resume tapping when we want.

It's enough to make you drink, I do the numbers and if it gets much lower then my good tappers will pack up and get other jobs in the city.
Certainly won't be doing any home improvements, or going to OZ for Xmas this year. Jim

My tappers have said 30 baht per kg and they are off. Hopefully it won't get that low.
Mike. (several Changs on the balcony yesterday).

29 yesterday for cup....it has been down at 23 remember..atleast down south

Originally Posted by crepitas

29 yesterday for cup....it has been down at 23 remember..atleast down south

Sold today wet cup 32 Baht, we get one or 2 Baht more than most because of volume.
Not good at all, gets much worse and I'll have to start tapping myself. Jim

Can someone explain in as few words as possible the definitions of
Wet cup
Dry cup
Crepe
Sheet
Rss?
Which is better and why?

Originally Posted by Necron99

Can someone explain in as few words as possible the definitions of
Wet cup
Dry cup
Crepe
Sheet
Rss?
Which is better and why?

Wet cup is cup after 4 or so taps, when you sell it . it has very high water content.
Dry cup is the wet cup left to dry and has no or very little water content.
Crepe, there are a few types, but for simplicity, it's wet cup that is put through a roller to make it into sheets.
Sheet rubber is made from liquid latex that is congealed and rolled into a sheet. It is sun dried or hot air dried, it you put in a shed and smoke it, it is RSS, ribbed smoked sheet.
That's it in a nut shell. Jim

^^ Thanks Jim.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by crepitas

29 yesterday for cup....it has been down at 23 remember..atleast down south

Sold today wet cup 32 Baht, we get one or 2 Baht more than most because of volume.
Not good at all, gets much worse and I'll have to start tapping myself. Jim

do the buyers discount for guesstimated water content? Our guy discounts 8%.

Originally Posted by rubberdiesel

hi everyone, i have some question to ask all you guys, i pay someone to plant my rubber trees. i told him, planting distance 3m x 7m. (3m within row and 7m between row facing from east to west). he told me it won't make different. he said, the rubber tree can plant any direction. if fruit trees (yes) i can plant east to west. can you guys tell me, am right or wrong...
like to hear from heavyweight guys for the right answer. thank you.....

Matt..

that's about same as ours...but the rows are north south on most of our farm..adjacent farm east west......Why TF would it make a difference...lie of the land dictates?

irrelevant titbit...
The MIL moved the bed in our guest bedroom Head north from head west.
Moved it back after she left ( had put power each side of head for lamps FFS.)
Anyways it is now permanently NS wiv extension cords..also had to move the 'ook for mossie net.....TIT...

crepitas,

that's about same as ours...but the rows are north south on most of our farm..adjacent farm east west......Why TF would it make a difference...lie of the land dictates?.

.

it very difficult talking to him. i told him to do thing, he said ok, but he didn't do it and i let him go after one day. now i hire local people to do the work, they are slow, but no headache. thanks.

Matt

Originally Posted by crepitas

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by crepitas

29 yesterday for cup....it has been down at 23 remember..atleast down south

Sold today wet cup 32 Baht, we get one or 2 Baht more than most because of volume.
Not good at all, gets much worse and I'll have to start tapping myself. Jim

do the buyers discount for guesstimated water content? Our guy discounts 8%.

That's a yes and no question, if you are buying for dry cup you deduct the water content, but I am selling to crepe rubber guys and they pay the same no matter how wet it is, less than dry cup prices, but you get a few Baht more than the dry price [most of the time] You really need to know the dry price then work out the water content to figure who is paying the best. Just experience over time and you can get the feel of what's best and every Baht counts. Jim

Hi all you struggling rubber planters out there, a friend of mine e mailed me that there is a lot of doom and gloom in the rubber section, on that other forum, that I no longer visit. So thought I would post a bit here on my thoughts on the subject.

If you do a search for rubber forecasts, commodities buyers, rubber market analysts etc things do look bad. Forecasts of massive oversupply, new countries becoming rubber suppliers, large scale planting in Thailand, 2005 to 2008 coming on line, less demand, shrinking markets. The day of rubber has passed, no future in it, time to get out. These same grey man with crystal balls failed to see 2008/9.

Question is do you think it's over, time to sell up before the market collapses all together, plough down your trees and plant palm oil, which has been happening in places. Start looking for a teaching job, head back to the west, take up drinking Lao Kow.

So here's my take on it and I'd like to know what others think.
2008/9 prices fell through the floor, people were saying rubber was finished, there was no future in it anymore, Thai's left their plantations for jobs in the city and supply dropped, world wide. Prices gained on under supply, remember posting some where, when asked, is it the end. Replied, when the roads and highways are empty of cars, that's the end.

What's happened this time, last time was the collapse of the west, this time it's a slow down in China. The west is still bumping along the bottom and can't take up the slack, from a slow down in China, commodity prices fall. Demand drops and we have an oversupply of rubber.
Predictions for 2013 are 2.5 percent oversupply, that's a lot of rubber, but if you look at the long term history, rubber demand rises between 2 and 3 percent a year. If the world wasn't in stagnation, that oversupply would not exist.

When will the next boom in the world economy begin, no one knows, will things get worse, possibly, so what will happen to rubber prices.
Places like Malaysia, one of the big 3 rubber produces will cut supply because the wages and cost are just too high. They as a nation will move away from rubber to other less labor intense crops. Supply will decrease. hopefully prices will rise.

Over 1/2 the world rubber is synthetic, made from oil and our prices go hand in hand with oil prices, after all if you can make cheaper rubber from oil why buy rubber.
The markets work on sentiment more than facts, look at the Japanese stock market for rubber futures. Good employment numbers for the US and rubber gains 1 or 2 %, bad industrial numbers from China and rubber falls the next day.
When all the numbers start to be good the speculators will start up again and rubber prices will rise. So in short when the world gets better we will be back in the money, when will it happen, who knows.

I've done my numbers and can live with low prices as long as my tappers stay, if they leave I may have to learn to tap myself, but I'm not going anywhere or selling anything. If I had the money I would be buying plantations now, because they are as cheap as they are ever likely to be. Jim

I'm not sure Jim. There is so much new rubber going in everywhere in northern Isaan, and Laos. It would help big time if Malaysia gets out of the rubber market to go right into Palm only. I can only hope. But the foreseeable future is not bright. Ditto, may have to learn tapping myself.
Mike.

when i started out back in 87 rubber was 29 b for sheet ,6 months later it was 16b .Ive seen many fluctuations in the price over the years,and im not duly worried. but then again im not a large producer(18 rai) and me and the mrs do
most of the tapping ourselves,it really is not that hard to tap,just make sure your knife is razor sharp

hmm...don't know the economics but sinc rbr is a renewable resource and oil ain't sounds like purely market manipulation . Processes to replicate pure latex would be like manufacturing a tree methinks?

^No its one of the failings of capitalism and the free market that whilst it is quite good at getting stuff done at lowest cost, it rarely factors in long term costs. which is why we are using finite resources such as oil and helium at well below the price they are worth... because of what is a short/medium term bulge in supply.

Originally Posted by hazz

James, I think you are spot on there.

clearly you have a product whos primary input cost is labor which is linked to the cost of living.... which is very loosely linked to the cost of commodities

your primary competitor is synthetic rubber whos primary input cost is oil, whose price is linked to supply/demand issues on the comity market, and is essentually suffering from an ongowing upward trend with cyclic booms and busts.

this your business depends upon an interaction two independent variables your minimum cost to make it worth harvesting and the maximum cost the industry will pay before switching to oil.

the question has what percentage of the boom/bust cycle will that maximum be higher than your minimum? do the good years make up for the bad and how do you plan your business to survive the bad.

Planning for tomorrow is impossible, you can only take it week by week.

Thais say live in the moment and That's how we live at the moment, luckily we are big enough and all though we earn less, so far we earn enough. Just have to cut back on the luxuries, weekends away, good farang food, trips to Australia for Xmas etc.

Thai rubber out put will decrease this year per Rai, fertilizer prices have remained high and Thais will not fertilize their trees, which in turn will drop out put.

Think next week will see rubber prices rise, good numbers from the US, injecting some confidence in the stock market. If it is a trend and not just a few day wonder, the worst will be over.

Until things settle, I'll just have to live frugally, no choice really, nothing in the west, but a dole form. Jim

cut back on the luxuries, weekends away, good farang food, trips to Australia for Xmas
Is that what they are, Luxuries? Shit and here I am thinking they were just the bits of a normal life that I can no longer afford!