Thread: Rubber trees 101

^Sad but true. Same all over the country. The banker's are giving money away.

If you're a Thai its open season on loans. PT has opened the flood gates to hell. 97's collapse will be nothing compared to the coming one.

This week's auction on tues-wed in Udon province, kee yang - 43.25 baht per kilo. Still going up...

Originally Posted by ltnt

^Sad but true. Same all over the country. The banker's are giving money away.

If you're a Thai its open season on loans. PT has opened the flood gates to hell. 97's collapse will be nothing compared to the coming one.

It's all big picture stuff, all the show of doing the right thing by rubber farmers, rice or cassava is just show.

Rubber prices have nothing to do with supply in the long term really, most of the worlds rubber is made from oil, 65% synthetic, 45 % natural. You can up the prices short term, but if manufactures of tyres etc see a long term increase, they can and will switch to synthetic.

Banks and the big players are not stupid,they know that the peons can't
keep up the payments, but they have land. Government has been out giving charnotes to what was once crown land, collateral, it can be sold to pay the debt.

What took 100s of years in Europe will be done in 20 here, that car is worth 10 rai of good rice land. When the car and the land are gone, the land will be owned by the big players and the family will have to get jobs. No more hammocks, no more lazy life, 50, 60 hour working weeks, living in a concrete box near a factory in some city.

Credit here or in the west is just the same as what was called bonded servants 300 years ago. Once you sign for that car, it may only say 6 years, but you have signed a deal with the devil and he owns you for the rest of your life.

I left the world to be free, not owned by the banks, but it seems the system is catching up on me and fast.
When I came here 10 or 11 years ago the village had 2 pickup trucks, mine and the village head, where once water buffalo slept under stilt huts a new silver pickup now lives and there are few buffalo left. Jim

I always enjoy reading your none BS sage words Jim , a true insight into reality, were sadly many Thai's here in Issan fear to tread , maybe they think that driving round in a new Pick Up, or their 13 year year old son riding to school on a Honda 125 costing 65.000 baht on the "installment plan" and both owned by the finance Company is somehow "progress"

[quote=jamescollister;2548379]

Originally Posted by ltnt

Rubber prices have nothing to do with supply in the long term really, most of the worlds rubber is made from oil, 65% synthetic, 45 % natural. You can up the prices short term, but if manufactures of tyres etc see a long term increase, they can and will switch to synthetic.

I found this to be a good summary.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

What took 100s of years in Europe will be done in 20 here, that car is worth 10 rai of good rice land. When the car and the land are gone, the land will be owned by the big players and the family will have to get jobs. No more hammocks, no more lazy life, 50, 60 hour working weeks, living in a concrete box near a factory in some city.

Reading this paragraph almost makes you cry. Gone in 1 generation and nothing and nobody can or will stop it. My BIL had to sell off his 13 water buffalo this year due to lack of feeding areas and their normal free range ways of traveling to the richest area for fodder. His entire family cried when they sold them off. He simply couldn't afford to keep paying other farmers for the grazing of his buffalo on their fields.

He's now invested in land and rubber trees. He thinks that the rubber will supplement income from his rice and other vegetable crops in bad years. He is one year on now and has lost 100 trees so far due to drought. Hard working guy and will not let his family down.

We're moving up there next month, October and will begin our build. We bought 4 rai from a farmer who had his land in the bank for loans. He paid off the bank and had some left after and planted Lum Yai on about 6 rai on a different parcel of his as well has build a new house and one for his son on what he got for his land from me. Nicest guy and works his ass off night and day.

We were allowed to purchase his land as my wife and her family are part of that community. If you are an outsider you cannot buy the land from locals unless they all collectively approve of the buyer and his intended use.

As bank notes come due as you stated, more and more of these farmers will no doubt go tits up and be forced labor in some factory in Thailand. A real shame. A national catastrophe in my thinking. The next generation also don't want the farmer way of life and are deserting the fields for taxi jobs in Bangkok or other big cities.

Just a sheer coincidence no doubt , I did like the bit were the Rubber farmers leaders in Issan and the North had been offered 200 million baht to "curtail " their demands in one of their meetings due shortly , which was of course strenuously denied Government denies shooting at protesting farmers | Bangkok Post: news

Have heard, but facts and truth are far between, that the Government is to give 1,000 baht per rai, up to 25 rai to rubber farmers in the north.. To help them out over the low price time.

Will believe it when I see the money, but the Governments support base is in the north not the south and we all know money buys votes.
If you do the numbers, that 25,000 Baht is what a 25 rai plantation makes the Government in one year in export tax easily.
Take with one hand and give with the other. Jim

Sold yesterday at auction, Udon Thani province; kee yang 46.30 baht per kg. Still going up...

Sold yesterday at auction, Udon Thani province; kee yang 42.61 baht per kg. Going down...

We just had the village boss on the PA system ranting on about this rubber grant. Before, when we registered, you had to have land papers, out here a lot of land has no paper, it's possession land.
He was saying people with undocumented land can now apply as well, he signs off that there are rubber trees and the alleged occupier gets the grant, even though the village and the possession land owner have records of sales and transfers witnessed by usually the sub gov.
Looks like in a typical Thai way some people may get a good wedge out of this.
Have to see if the government pays out in the end, but if they do, I'll be singing in the rain for a few days and it's still raining here. Jim

do hope ya ain't go blow 50+k baht in a few days....although I think my wife would give it a go..we shall see what we see hugh
Suspect the favored voters in Isaan may well see it first...lol

anyone see this...lots of these ladies down our way including a rellie..lol
....they are good investment though..sort of unofficial village Credit Union..pays about 25%++ on your monthly investment over 1.5 yr term.
Granny Loan Shark - Viewfinder - Asia2013 - Al Jazeera English

Originally Posted by chassamui

BIL has 50 rai in Surat. They plan to take the money and run. He has agreed to lease the land to another farmer and as most of his stock is mid 30s with no succession planting, I don't blame him.
Filthy job, hard work, unsocial hours and at the mercy of the weather and the markets.
you must have the patience of a saint Jim.

My patience gets tested a lot, right now it's the weather and tappers. Next will be who knows what, another car, no that was earlier in the year.
All in all better than working, but at times it has come close to violence, Thais can do some real stupid things. Like FIL buying 110 bags of fertilizer without asking me, he's smart, only 400bht a bag and had saved me 60000 bht. Except it wasn't fertilizer it was magic organic stuff.
Think he learnt his lesson when I refused to pay for it, wife paid in the end, but think the fear of being out of pocket should stop him buying any thing else. Jim

Yeah Jim of course your wife paid with your hard earned dough , cos when one gets down to the "nitty gritty" thats all it boils down to in the end !

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Yeah Jim of course your wife paid with your hard earned dough , cos when one gets down to the "nitty gritty" thats all it boils down to in the end !

Wouldn't say hard eared money, tappers do the work, and I have a system, which I call sharing the pain.
Wife has 3 plantations, her money, car payments, food shopping, kids, family etc. I have one for me.
When the FIL screws up, there's less in the pot for the wife and the in laws, FIL, MIL live with us.
Think the FIL is learning fast, no ATM here, no money, no outside income. Car insurance was due last month, wife says don't have the money, too much rain. Say it wasn't me that wanted a big SUV, but your dad, park it up, insurance paid next day.
Old man wants to play, then the money he gets from the wife gets less and he hurts, tight bastard always has money when needed. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

wife paid in the end, but think the fear of being out of pocket should stop him buying any thing else. Jim

They never learn Jim. "Can I borrow BT 5000" Yes but I want it back tomorrow.

Better still, "Can I borrow Bt5000"?

NO

It works both ways. i do occasionally lend them money but they know I also say no once in a while. Keeps them honest ish.

GF is a diamond and works her ass off, but the family are wasters mostly.

Originally Posted by chassamui

Originally Posted by jamescollister

wife paid in the end, but think the fear of being out of pocket should stop him buying any thing else. Jim

They never learn Jim. "Can I borrow BT 5000" Yes but I want it back tomorrow.

Better still, "Can I borrow Bt5000"?

NO

It works both ways. i do occasionally lend them money but they know I also say no once in a while. Keeps them honest ish.

GF is a diamond and works her ass off, but the family are wasters mostly.

Just a different way of looking at things, old man is eleted life time government, BIL is some type of county clerk, they make their money, they would just rather I paid, I rather want them to pay. Got to say the wife never runs short, I have no money, she has none, but daddy is there. Jim

i came across an interesting article by bloomberg. unfortunately i can't post a link //globalrubbermarkets.com/12895/rubber-price-may-reach-310-us-centskg-december-2013.html maybe some light at the end of the tunnel?, let's hope so!

Sold at auction yesterday, Udon province, kee yang, 39.00 baht per kg... still going down. Excellent production due to the weather, just a shit kg price.

land preparation.

planted rrim 3001 last august.

right now..