Thread: Thailand to suffer most in economic crisis

made a decision
Ah but how many converted it into a cheque

I promise my wife I'll finish deck pool garden one day perhaps in the next re-incarnation or JJs keep fit holiday

Does Marmite the Dog like a dig there'll be abone in it for whoever holds the leash

There wa aclassic textbook called
"How to lie with statistics" which was on my Uni must place homebrew kit on list

If ulike pdfs

ile Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
Over the last fifty years, How to Lie with Statistics has sold more .... do lie with statistics every day, and it is to Huff’s credit ...
www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Publications/PDF/SteeleSS2005.pdf
www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Publications/PDF/SteeleSS2005.pdf

^thanks for the pdf, hope I'll get to reading it tonight

There are some very bad tourism numbers coming in

Tourism fund not enough for all

By: Bangkokpost.comPublished: 17/03/2009 at 08:06 PM The five-billion-baht fund for tourism operators is not enough for them to all survive the slump, said Tourism and Sports Minister Chumpol Silpa-archa.
The financial support programme was officially launched Tuesday and will run until April 30.
The Federation of Thai Tourism Associations (FTTA) predicted that at least 450 tour operators would seek financial help worth at least 1.8 billion baht.
More than 1,000 restaurant operators are expected to submit loan applications for 500 million baht, with small hotels likely to seek up to two billion baht.
Soft loans to help tourism-related operators will charge an interest rate at 2% in the first two years, followed by the minimum lending rate (MLR) -3%.
"The requests for loans during the 1.5-month period will exceed five billion baht for sure. If demand is excessive, we will go forward with the second fund,'' Mr Chumpol said.
The minister estimated that the tourism business would pick up near the end of this year if the private and government sectors worked hand-in-hand to promote the country in the same direction.
Apichart Sankary, the FTTA president, said the tourism industry in Thailand would be sluggish in the next two years, particularly for inbound business.
"I can say that this year is the poorest since I have been in business. This summer, tourist arrivals from Europe and the United States will drop more than 30%. Instead, most operators should pin their hopes on Asian tourists particularly from Japan and China,'' he said.

Manufacturing for exports is going to decline sharply. More jobs will be lost in Thailand.

Trade surplus at 18-year high

By: Bangkokpost.comPublished: 18/03/2009 at 09:30 PM Thailand posted its widest trade surplus in 18 years in February as demand continued to sink in face of the global recession.
The trade surplus in February widened to $3.58 billion from $1.38 billion a month earlier while imports plummeted 40.3%, the sharpest drop in 11 years. The decline follows January's 37.6% decline, according to Siripol Yodmuangcharoen, the Commerce Ministry's permanent secretary.
The steep import fall means lower demand for raw materials among manufacturers and falling oil prices which averaged US$40 per barrel compared with $100 in the same month last year.
Thailand imported 22.86 million barrels of oil in February worth $1.052 billion. The volume and value were down by 10.7% and 56.3% respectively.
Imports of capital goods fell 16.1%, with machinery down 14.1%, computers by 32.5%, and semi-finished and finished materials by 48.8%, mainly because of the shrinking demand among buyers who have been hard hit by the world economic slump.
The big fall in imports triggered by decreasing imports of raw materials and capital goods signals that manufacturing for exports is likely to decline in the coming months, said analysts.
Exports, which make up 70% of the economy, sank for the fourth consecutive month by 11.3% from a year earlier to $11.73 billion. Demand for electronics, auto parts, electrical appliances and agricultural and agro-industrial products has dried up.

Originally Posted by rubbajohnny

www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Publications/PDF/SteeleSS2005.pdf

nice reference,

its not lies really, more like statistics give you a lot of freedom to choose from

Korn: Economy could shrink 3%

By: BangkokPost.comPublished: 23/03/2009 at 11:49 AM Gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year could shrink three per cent, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Monday.
The Fiscal Policy Office lowered the GDP growth projection for 2009 from negative two per cent to negative three per cent, and other countries also cut their economic forecasts in the past two to three months, Mr Korn said.

It was therefore necessary for the government to seek more loans to support the economy. He said the government would spend the funds cautiously.

The government is preparing the fiscal year 2010 budget, and it is continuing the deficit budget policy, he revealed.

The minister said the economy might sink by eight to nine percent this year and more than two million people could be unemployed without support from the government's economic measures.

Originally Posted by mrsquirrel

Why has the baht hung on so long.

$1 AUD = 24 bath on the street today, going up every day, lets hope it keeps up.

Originally Posted by terry57

$1 AUD = 24 bath on the street today, going up every day, lets hope it keeps up.

If the AUD holds where it is against the USD will likely do so.

With the Auzzie $ now below the Singapore $ today it make me wonder.

One thing is for sure that if there was a sales boom in Thai property of recent it must be linked for the March 27th cut off date of the .01 % sales tax on property and the reintroduction of the 2%

It was interesting to read in an email from Raimon land was offering to arrange amazing mortgages for sign up before the 27th - I wonder how well they did ??

It seems that at least some Thais are waking up to the reality's and what's more dare to speak about it.


More stimulus on the way to curb job losses

By: POST REPORTERS Published: 24/03/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: News Thailand's economy will shrink by a sharp 3% this year, worse than previously forecast, says Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij.



Mr Korn yesterday said his ministry would put in place more fiscal policies to cope with the steeper-than-expected economic deterioration.

The government earlier forecast a contraction of up to 2% of GDP for the year.
"Without economic stimulus measures from the government, Thailand's economy could contract by 8% or 9% this year, which could cause almost 2 million workers nationwide to lose their jobs," Mr Korn said.

"The 3% shrinkage forecast has already taken into account figures that are the expected outcomes of the government's finance policies that will be implemented this year."

The finance minister said the government needed to continue its budget deficit policy next fiscal year with the deficit figure rising to 390 billion baht from 350 billion baht this fiscal year.
This fiscal year's deficit figure of 350 billion baht is equivalent to 3.5% of the country's GDP.
Mr Korn said the government would exercise its budget deficit policy cautiously because it needed to take into account the long-term stability of state's finances.

The government would also issue a royal decree to authorise the government to spend the existing 17 billion baht in revenues gained from the digit lottery programme launched in 2003 during the Thaksin Shinawatra administration, Mr Korn said.
The government did not dare spend the 17 billion baht after the Council of State, which looked into the legality of the lottery scheme, ruled it was not underpinned by any law. This meant the government had no authority to spend the money.
The digit lottery scheme was scrapped by the coup-appointed Surayud Chulanont government.
Economist and former deputy prime minister Olarn Chaipravat said for each 1% contraction in GDP, some 400,000 people would lose their jobs.

Based on this premise, if GDP shrinks by 3% this year, down from 2.6% growth last year, unemployment could rise to over 2 million.

Satit Rungkasiri, the Revenue Department's adviser on strategic tax administration, said the department had forecast that country's tax revenues would fall 120 billion to 130 billion baht below its 1.4-trillion-baht target.
Mr Satit also said this year's tax revenue figure was even lower than in 1997, when the so-called "Tom Yum Kung" economic crisis hit the country.
"It might be because the revenue set a lower target during the Tom Yum Kung crisis. This year, we've set quite a high target," Mr Satit said.

Amara Sripayak, the central bank's senior director for the domestic economy, supported the government's plan to seek loans from foreign banks, saying the administration's spending of the money on infrastructure projects over the next three years would help boost investors' confidence in the country's economy over the long run.
She said private investors would not invest more in the Thai economy in the near future because many did not expect the Thai economy to recover within the year.
"It's better for the government to spend on megaprojects over the next three years," she said.

Mrs Amara also supported the Finance Ministry's plan to give priority to the implementation of fiscal measures to spur growth.
The measures would help boost the country's flagging economy, while those measures could be backed up by monetary measures as well, she suggested.

Meanwhile, MPs and senators will meet today to deliberate the government's proposal to borrow 70 billion baht from foreign banks to shore up the economy.
The House Secretariat has sent a letter to MPs calling on them to take part in the special sitting.
The government plans to seek 70 billion baht in loans from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Japan International Cooperation Agency to fight the economic slump.
The borrowing is aimed at financing investment in infrastructure projects, including logistics, water management systems, health care and education.

To be vetted by parliament are also a Thai-Japanese fiscal cooperation plan and a draft loan contract proposed by the Abhisit Vejjajiva cabinet.
The documents involve the Japanese government's initial agreement to lend 63 billion yen to Thailand to invest in the Red Line mass transit route from Bang Sue to Rangsit.

Auto production, sales plunge

By: BangkokPost.comPublished: 23/03/2009 at 04:39 PM Automotive production nosedived 50.57 per cent month-on-month in February due to the economic downturn of Thailand's trading partners, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).
In February, the country manufactured about 60,000 cars, FTI's Automotive Industry Club (AIC) spokesman Surapong Paisitpatnapong said on Monday.

Domestic auto sales in February stood at 34,000 cars, down by 30.7 per cent, while the country managed to export about 44,000 cars or 32.49 per cent lower.

In the first two months of this year, auto production plummeted to 130,000 cars, down by 42.37 percent, while auto exports dipped 23.11 per cent.

However, Mr Surapong said the Middle East captured 21 per cent of the market share. Last year, the figure was 19 per cent. Australia and Asian countries continued to top the market share at 24 per cent.

He believed auto sales in the second half of 2009 will improve because of the government's economic stimulus measures. He said this year's auto sales target will remain at 1,080,000 cars.

Originally Posted by larvidchr

"The 3% shrinkage forecast has already taken into account figures that are the expected outcomes of the government's finance policies that will be implemented this year."

which means that their 3% figure is based on an optimistic outcome to the stimulus packages

What stimulous package?

Originally Posted by Rural Surin

What stimulous package?

I could do with my package stimulating right now.

Originally Posted by Rural Surin

What stimulous package?

I think they are talking about the "2000 baht - dont forget to vote for me next time" thing

It might stimulate votes. But the economy?

Originally Posted by Escapeeeeeee

Well Thailand can't be any worse that Germany where I have lived and worked for the past 10 years, as that has really gone to shit. Bankrupt banks, manufacturing and engineering dead and complete collapse on the cards. That's why I have escaped!!!

Seems like you have been in a different Germany than the one I am living in.

The problem is that they didn't "get" it up to now.. there is only a small problem and the PM can solve that by borrowing billions of dollars with a hard currency (Baht) and when the Baht gets weak.. oh hell.. then the borrowed amount gets "BIGGER" i guess...

As they told in the landoffice the discounted rates for businesstax and change ownership should stay at the 0.11% ...?? (in total) did they give wrong information ??

WATCHING PATTAYA'S DECLINE

Tiffany's Show owner says resort city needs a major cleanup.

By: Parista Yuthamanop Published: 7/05/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business Sutham Phanthusak, the owner of Pattaya's best-known entertainment business, has a grim face as he ponders the challenges the resort city faces.


Sutham Phanthusak, owner of Tiffany’s Show, frets about Pattaya’s latest blow, the Asean summit riots: ‘‘I worry hotels with tight cash flow might close down.’’ TAWATCHAI KEMGUMNERD

The Trang native who founded Tiffany's Show three decades ago has seen Pattaya evolve from a tranquil seaside resort, renowned for its sunsets, into a town bustling with activity and nightlife.
"Pattaya itself has potential. But its growth has come with poor-quality zoning and management. It is killing itself, which is quite regrettable," he says.
But reviving Pattaya's business has now become an urgent question of survival after protesters from the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) violently disrupted the Asean summit on April 11. The incident was a prelude to street fighting in Bangkok a few days later.
"Pattaya survived many crises in the past. First was the Gulf War in 1991. Then we encountered the Sars epidemic and bird flu. If we can compare those to catching a cold, Pattaya now has cancer," says Mr Sutham, who also owns the five-star Woodlands Hotel and Resort.
"This could be the end of Pattaya after 40 years."
Even before the H1N1 influenza outbreak, the occupancy rate of five-star hotels in Pattaya stood at 10% in April, compared with a typical rate of 70-80%. Occupancy at lower-ranked hotels was only 30-40% last month.
With 1,490 cases of H1N1 flu now reported worldwide, tourism globally is braced for a heavy blow.
In any case, Mr Sutham hopes the government's efforts to calm political tensions can help resuscitate the battered tourism sector.
"Even if the political situation returns to normal, tourism will take a year to recover because it is about advance planning. I worry we could see hotels with tight cashflow close down," he says.
Mr Sutham adds that Pattaya desperately needs to improve its zoning - and shed its image as a mafia haven and a hub of the sex trade - if it wants to attract more sophisticated tourists.
"How can Pattaya attract quality tourists if it has no proper zoning for beer bars and night pubs and allows go-go dancers to perform in the middle of the streets?" he asks.
In his view, rebranding Pattaya will also require an overhaul of its police force - which he accuses of taking far too long to examine crimes. For him, the ability of protesters to break into the Asean summit venue was yet another instance of the police's inadequacy.
"The fact that the protesters were outnumbered by security officers from the police and military should have allowed the government to block them without violence," he says. "There is just one road leading to the hotel entrance and the other side of the hotel is enclosed by the beach. There were 1,600 UDD protesters compared with more than 2,000 officers."
But he dismisses reports that Pattaya residents participated in the turmoil as members of the "blue shirts" opposing anti-government protesters.
"There are very few locals among the blue shirts. I would say fewer than 1% of them are locals," he said.










I am very surprised that the good 5 star hotels are down to 10% that surely cant go on for long before they will have to close shop ?

So that is what the bastard looks like!

Hope he goes broke

someone you know ?

My mrs worked in his hotel

just borrow money no problems and deny the recession is hurting thailand everyone will run with that
muppets