Thread: Teakdoors stock portfolio

Originally Posted by Spin

^ Both POT and MOS make fertilizer as their core business. POT is the biggest producer of nitrogen, phosphate and potash products and MOS is similar in its operations.

Dunno, costs rising? Anyway, will look into both companies on the long weekend. Too busy in the meantime. Better luck tommorrow Spin!

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Better luck tommorrow Spin!

On the contrary Andrew, very happy with the start to the week. Unrealised profit today of 2800$

Total gain now over 13,500$

[quote=Spin;690575]

Originally Posted by Spin

There is a correlation between strong oil prices and fertilizer prices, not sure exactly why but there definatley is.....

Interesting theory.

Originally Posted by Spin

...I just saw that Securities Exchange Commission are stepping up efforts to take action against rumour spreaders or starters.

Impossible.

oooooh shit! We're getting murdered today, yesterday we ate steak. today is khao neow moo bping

Originally Posted by Spin

There is a correlation between strong oil prices and fertilizer prices, not sure exactly why but there definatley is.....

Heres a good example of the above, the live intraday charts below are for POT (left) CRUDE OIL (middle) and Dow Jones Index (on right)



Look at 11am, oil fell off a cliff from 143 down to 137 and bounced up to 139$
At the exact same time the Dow Jones Index rallied strongly 100 points.
POT and MOS (not shown) did not follow this rally and both fell sharply sympathetic to oils fall.

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

Originally Posted by Spin

I just saw that Securities Exchange Commission are stepping up efforts to take action against rumour spreaders or starters.

Impossible.

I'm not so sure, been listening to the live broadcast from Senate Banking Committee in Washington. Someone just spoke about a trader that was caught sending false rumours using instant messaging software, so i googled and found the full story and its very interesting reading: Here

The problem when focusing exclusively on short term swings or news exclusively to make a trade decision, is that it doesn't hold on the long run, and eventually lead to more chaotic trades, following the mood and emotional swings of the market,

not constructive in my opinion,

question to Spin: what was your best performance on a single stock on a single trade ? and what is the longest time you held a stock ?

^ That would be either FCX or POT possibly held for 3 months maybe 5K$ per trade.
I've only been doing this stocks thing for 18 months and lets face it, I didnt choose a good time to be learning did I?

^ what are you talking about ? this is the best time to learn, in a bull market, everybody is a winner, not so in a bear market

5,000 on a trade ? how much was invested for each of those trades ?

Originally Posted by Spin

I've only been doing this stocks thing for 18 months

And what motivated you to do this now ? and not before ?

Originally Posted by Butterfly

this is the best time to learn

Baptism of fire is the best description I reckon.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

how much was invested for each of those trades

For fcx I was holding 300 shares buy price was about 70$ per share so about 21K$. Similar story for trading POT.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

And what motivated you to do this now ? and not before ?

I came to Thailand with the idea to start a business, having taken a look around I decided against it due to the unlevel playing field. I liked the idea of finding a profession I could do from anywhere in the world. This is what i came up with.
I didnt do this is the Uk becuase I never had the capital, back there it was tied up in property, cars and other shit that I didnt really need to have

So heres the numbers for the day, the financials spooked the market and then Uncle Ben blurted out some more damning news on the state of the US economy and the sell off huge. Tomorrows another day, as they say.... 3500$ wiped off the TD portfolio today.

The financials rallied nicely today, didnt take commodoties with them so the TD portfolio didnt do much of anything today. We finished 540$ down.

I find this thread very interesting Spin, even though I know nothing about stocks and shares. Keep up the information

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), one of the largest financial institutions in the European Union, has warned its clients that "a very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared". RBS expects the S&P-500 index of US stocks, one of the broadest stock indices in Wall Street used by hedge funds, banks and pension funds, could lose almost 23% by September as, in the bank's phrase, "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the US-led securitization revolution that took hold after the dot.com bubble burst and then Fed chairman Alan Greenspan lowered US interest rates to levels not sustained since the 1930's Great Depression.

I wouldn't be choosing now as the time to be dabbling in the stockmarket

^ couldnt agree more, thats why I'm enjoying playing with monopoly money on here.

Thanks for that link, will have a read over the weekend.

Hey Spin, any chance of an update?

Commodities are still sluggish and down across the board, since Oil fell back 11% from its highs last week. Everything is affected from corn to copper.
The fert stocks need a shot in the arm and that could well come next Wednesday 24th when Potash report earnings. However if oil continues to fall I will consider reversing to short for a while.
End of play yesterday 900$ down. and 3700$ profit so far.

^ talk about a risky portfolio, went from a strong positive to a negative in little over a week,

IMO, you are not diversified enough and it's pretty clear your portfolio is too strongly correlated with oil, way too risk for the little return you get

Another reason why individual investors should stay out of the Stock Market, they have tendency to invest in related industries or securities with too strong correlated market factors

You need to diversify,

^ This is a game for Teakdoor and doesnt reflect my current trades in real life. Dont confuse the two things because they are not the same.
Sure enough, after a few rough days the ferts are back down to the price I paid for them with imaginary money. It aint the end of the world.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Another reason why individual investors should stay out of the Stock Market

Nonsense, theres plenty of savvy individuals out there making money. Even more so since the advent of the internet and the advent of instant access to crucial news and information.

^ yeah, but that assume people doing this on a constant basis, following the news, and prices, hourly or at least daily,

most individuals don't have the time, and will buy things and forget about it,

what you are doing is called day trading, not something for everyone or as simple as you make it sound.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

what you are doing is called day trading

This isnt day trading dude. I'm not selling any of those fert stocks until they hit new highs. That might be 3,6,9,12 months. I'm in long at those prices for this thread.
Now we wait, I did the due diligence on these companies and believe in their future.
I held them long upto their recent highs and so when RSI indicated overbought. I bought back in after the correction (too early really before macd crossover but what the hell this aint real money) and started the thread. I haven't got any longs placed in real life in any of these companies, maybe next wednesday when POT reports.

Lets have a look at the chart for MOS, what we have forming could be whats called a "double bottom', thats the shape thats on the right hand side, a bit like an incomplete "W".
Things can go one of two ways from here, we can plunge to the next support level at around 120$ and maybe all the way down to 115.43 (closing price May 27th) which would be really bad OR we can bounce back from here next week and maybe earn a few quid. Difficult call, lets wait and see what cards we get dealt next week.