Thread: Teakdoors stock portfolio

SOLD 200 First Solar FSLR at 133.21$

Originally Posted by Spin

21-11-2008, 08:28 PM BUY 200 First Solar FSLR at 90.50 USD

Originally Posted by Spin

04-12-2008, 03:44 PM SOLD 200 First Solar FSLR at 133.21$

Taking profit on this one. Quite a nice run up on this one in just 2 weeks sees 8,542$ profit.

where are the screenshots, we need the screenshots !!! come on Spin, show some courage

Hello spin, I am new to this forum. Very nice indeed, I am looking forward to your new portfolio. After you sold FSLR, Did invest the profit again or are you waiting at the moment for the market to change...

Originally Posted by importford

Very nice indeed,

Thanks but overall it isnt that nice! The FSLR profit was cool but the actual portfolio is down about 100,000 USD, however any strong rally will see that defecit reversed quite quickly due to the size of the positions.
With FSLR, Im looking for a re-entry point at about 70$, this should happen in the next few weeks.

With regard the wider market, the US has officialy been in recession 1 year. The market looks forward 6 months and it tends to rebound 5 months before the economy does. Ive got a feeling that all means that sometime during the next 6 months the market will bottom and springtime/summertime should bring the rebound we are all waiting for. Thats my best guess as to how this mess might play out.
I could be totally wrong though

If you have any tips or recommendations, do post them on here and they can be added to the portfolio.

Originally Posted by Spin

Originally Posted by LukDod

I hope it wasn't just a paper exercise on Teak Door.

Yes, Im not doing much trading in real life, its too volatile but i dip in and out quickly once or twice a week just to make my rent money.

Hmmm...$8,000 profit from FSLR? I imagine living in the top floor suite of the Bayoki would be rather expensive...

Thank you for the clarification on placing a stop loss!

^ Commodoties fell off a cliff at the end of September, oil led the plunge and everything else followed. Fortunatley the TD trading account has about $1m available so i can buy my way out of the shit quite easily

I couldnt use options to protect the losses as none of these online portfolio trackers let you do that.

Anyway Butters, whats coming next, deflation? inflation? Interested in hearing your thoughts....

Originally Posted by Spin

however any strong rally

pull the other slot machine

^ There are going to be plenty of strong rallies before all this is over. I read that theres 3 trillion dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting for an entry into the market, couple that to shorts getting squeezed on the spikes and the potential for violent moves to the upside are big.
The trend remains down though, lets not forget that.

Originally Posted by Spin

Anyway Butters, whats coming next, deflation? inflation? Interested in hearing your thoughts....

it's hard to tell, it's a big fucking mess, everyone is down 50% with a few exceptions,

definitely mild recession, deflation but that's only after our big cost push inflation of last year that fucked every small companies Marginal Revenue to their shutdown level

it's going to be miserable for the next 9 to 12 months in the Real sector before it gets better, volatility is going to be king, so if you like risk and absolute return, this is your big fucking chance, like taking your surfboard to a killer wave

Another shipping company to go with with Paragon we have already. Dryships: DRYS
Average in from here.
BUY DRYS 250 [at] 9.50$

Basing this buy on the idea that the "baltic dry index" looks as though it has seen the worst of its losses. Not much down side from here....i think

Chart here

SLB Schumberger SLB hit a 52 week low today. Energy related stocks are nearing their bottom. Gonna take 400 at 37.70$

Oil traded at 37.39 a barrel today, It cant go to zero, maybe it will see 25$ but at that price mass disorder will break out in OPEC countries who need oil at 60-70$ just to avoid national debt default.

Also BUY 200 more StatoilHydro ASA at 15.12$

Dow has fallen 900 points over the last few days so gonna grab a few more bits and bobs for long term holds.

Going to be using a 15% then 35% then 50% to average into these positions over the next couple months. Picking up shares on heavy down days like today.

BUY 200 ACH at 12.00$ This is a big Aluminium company in China
BUY 200 CHL at 44.70$ China mobile, biggest mobile phone provider with 350 million unique subscribers!

BUY 200 MOS at 32.50$ Still have high long term hopes for this fertilizer company, along with POT...

POT 200 BUY at 70.25$

And a couple of "electronically traded funds" or "etf's" these two are long with x2 leverage giving double the upward gain.

BUY 1000 URE at 4.50$ Real Estate double long
BUY 1000 UYG at 4.30$ Financials double long

Originally Posted by Spin

maybe it will see 25$

I don't think it will sink that low, the saudis have just announced a further cut in production to shore up the price . . . but we all saw what happened the last time OPEC cut production . . . the price tumbled

BUY 600 POT at 69.00$

The just released earnings....

PotashCorp Triples Earnings in Fifth Consecutive Record Year
January 22, 2009

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (PotashCorp) today announced record fourth-quarter earnings of $2.56 per share1 ($788.0 million), more than double the $1.16 per share ($376.8 million) earned in the same period last year. This represented our third-best quarter ever and pushed our 2008 earnings to $11.01 per share ($3.5 billion), more than triple the $3.40 per share ($1.1 billion) earned in 2007. This was PotashCorp’s fifth consecutive year of record earnings, reflecting the global need for fertilizer and, specifically, the increasing value of potash, our core nutrient.

Although the global economic crisis led to slower demand for all three nutrients and lower prices for phosphate and nitrogen, our potash operations drove fourth-quarter gross margin to $873.1 million, 63 percent above the $535.0 million generated in the same period last year. With all three nutrients achieving annual gross margin performance records, 2008 gross margin rose to $4.9 billion, a 161 percent increase over 2007’s $1.9 billion. Included in these results is $88.9 million in writedowns of year-end nitrogen and phosphate inventory values, which reduced earnings by $0.22 per share in the quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization2 (EBITDA) grew to $955.8 million for the quarter (compared to $526.7 million in last year’s fourth quarter) and raised full-year EBITDA to $5.0 billion, $3.1 billion higher than that of 2007. Fourth-quarter cash flow from operating activities prior to working capital changes2 of $849.1 million was up from $431.9 million in the same period last year, raising the full-year total to $3.8 billion, compared to $1.5 billion in 2007.

Full report

Spin what are you holding right now in your portfolio? Got a list?

Originally Posted by LukDod

...but I'd also like to see Butterfly post more of his adventures and experiences in the SET. I've been getting into the SET, primarily due to the (currently) high dividends that a few respectable companies are providing, though I expect (guess?) the dividend rates will likely fall in the upcoming year.

There is a thread somewhere where I posted a few recommendations for their high div and capital gain potential. Most have made between 40% and 100% within the year, so not a bad bet.

The trick is to follow them closely, very time consuming for an individual unless he has nothing else to do. They will usually stay flat for months and then suddenly go up like crazy within a month. Some companies report great earnings and are being completely ignored, these are the one you want to catch.

The whole exercise is not worth it if you don't have a min of 1m THB to invest, as you will need the diversification. Some of those companies are more conservatively managed than European or American ones, so it's a good sign of business wisdom. Avoid the "Hot" stocks and the brokers push, if you can't time them you will be burn for sure. Most farangs are afraid of investing into the SET because they don't always understand what they are buying. Always understand what you are buying, easier to say than done.

Originally Posted by Rattanaburi

Spin what are you holding right now in your portfolio? Got a list?

I have core long positions in POT and MOS, nothing else!

I swing trade ultrashort and ultra etfs these days (hedging carefully), buying and selling is triggered by support and resistance levels in the S&P500. The objective is to make money from the constant lack of direction in the market and capitalise on the contant volatility.
I also like the etn, DTO and the traded fund USO for a long play in oil.

With That I want to jump back into FSLR which has been dragged down from 160$ (by the recent fall in DOW) to the level I sold it at last time.

BUY 600 FLSR at 135.90$

BUY 1000 DRYS Dryships at 8.99$

^^ Thats should be DXO up there and not DTO sorry.