I have two articals I will post about the swings in the polls, that have develope, and might still develope.
The first one kind of outlining the bounce that McCain got from the combination of the Palin pick and the red team convention:
McCain Has the Advantage Over Obama in Post-Convention Polls - Michael Barone (usnews.com)
I don't think there is any doubt that McCain got a bigger bounce out of the convention and the Palin pick, than Obama got out of the convention and the Biden pick. But much of that lead has been eliminated. That being said I am sure McCain would prefer to be on top (still inside the margin of error) as opposed to being on the bottom.
Quote:
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The post-convention national polls mostly show John McCain with a small lead over Barack Obama. But what's been happening in the states? I've been looking at the post-convention state polls at realclearpolitics.com, pollster.com, and ficethirtyeight.com and find some significant differences from pre-convention polls. They tend to suggest that the battlefield is shifting, with more states within McCain's reach and fewer within Obama's.
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I think McCain will not really have a problem locking up Ohio in Nov. But it will be interesting to see how the current economic situation effects things in the weeks to come.
Quote:
| The big industrial states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are Obama +2, Ohio is McCain +3. In each case, McCain is 1 point better than Bush's final percentage against Kerry in each state. An old rule of American politics is that economic distress moves voters toward Democrats. Michigan, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania are in economic distress. But they haven't moved toward the Democratic nominee, as compared with 2004. The old rule isn't operating.
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I know the polls are tight in Virginia, but I do think McCain will carry Virginia come Nov. Not sure about Colorado.
Quote:
| The new marginals. Obama has been running consistently better than John Kerry or Al Gore in Colorado and Virginia, states that have had comparatively vibrant economies and have also seen influxes of young voters, who tend to be heavily pro-Obama.
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Polling in some of these states is a bit up in the air. I would agree McCain will land Alaska, Montana, North/Sourth Dakota. I think Minnesota and Wisconsin might be toss-up (Minnesotat more so than Wisconsin), but I have a hard time believing that McCain has a real shot at either Oregon or Washington.
Quote:
| The northern tier. The Obama campaign had hoped to be competitive in some northern tier states: the Dakotas, Montana, and Alaska. Pre-convention polls provided some reasonable basis for this hope. Post-convention polls don't. Alaska, unsurprisingly, is McCain-Palin +27. Montana is McCain +11, North Dakota McCain +14, South Dakota +17. More importantly, Minnesota is just Obama +1, Wisconsin Obama +3, Washington Obama +4, Oregon Obama +7.
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It would seem that indeed Nevada and New Mexico might will be toss-ups.
Quote:
| The western odd ducks. Nevada is McCain +2. New Mexico, in a shift from pre-convention polls, is McCain +2 (but that's only one poll). These states were seriously contested in 2000 and 2004 and look to be again in 2008.
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No major surprised in the rest - McCain will carry the south, and Obama wil take the Northeast. Though the numbers in New Hampshire and New York (poll numbers in New York all over the place - some with double diget Obama leads, some with McCain within 5), are better than I expected for McCain in general.