US Presidential Campaign 2008

**Ivor Biggun** · 11-09-2008, 08:46 PM

Originally Posted by Norton

Appeasement has nothing to do with it. Why is it folks think negotiation and reaching a consensus is somehow a sell out (appeasement).

Britain was accused of the same thing when negotiating with the IRA. It brought about peace, and peace being the important thing in the end. Someone has to give.

**Norton** · 11-09-2008, 08:52 PM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

I think McCain/Palin presidency has the needed tools to get things done in Congress.

Why do you think that?

**ChiangMai noon** · 11-09-2008, 08:54 PM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

I think McCain/Palin presidency has the needed tools to get things done in Congress.

mind expanding in lots of detail??

**Mr Earl** · 11-09-2008, 09:16 PM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

I think McCain/Palin presidency has the needed tools to get things done in Congress.

I tend to agree, in fact I think we're witnessing a phenomena.

**Mr Earl** · 11-09-2008, 09:25 PM

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

Originally Posted by britmaveric

I think McCain/Palin presidency has the needed tools to get things done in Congress.

mind expanding in lots of detail??

They're going to tackle the energy issues with everything they've got. Which will in turn be one hell of a stimulus for the economy.

McCain has promised to use his veto power on pork, and has a track record of keeping such promises.

Palin has already clobbered the old guard politician in AK. Don't expect her to be a shrinking violet in DC.

Between Obama and Biden their track record is quite lame in comparison.

**panama hat** · 11-09-2008, 09:33 PM

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

Originally Posted by Norton

If Palin was a consensus seeking type person she would have a near impossible task in reaching across the aisle given these differences. A pit bull kick ass personality behavior she has apparently used in Alaska will be opposed by a Congress full of a whole pack of far more experienced pit bulls. Partisan divides which now plague the government will severely deepen not lessen.

What you're really trying to say here Norts is if Palin was one of them appeasement types who prefers reading terrorists their rights as opposed to locking 'em up, the country & world would be a better place?

Sad, little one-track mind man.

**attaboy** · 11-09-2008, 10:21 PM

Originally Posted by spiff

Just a rather accurate observation.

It's an opinion based on his bias.

**Bugs** · 11-09-2008, 10:28 PM

Originally Posted by Norton

His selection of Palin to rally the Republican party, while effective is very short sighted. He has selected a running mate who's views and core beliefs are diametrically opposed to the core beliefs of the clear majority in the Congress.

It might have been short sighted but let's face it McCain could not afford to look at the long run. He had to focus on what would help him get elected. Palin has been amazing at solidifying the red team base. Before the convention I had some real doubts about how much of the red team base would simply stay home on election day - that is no longer a concern for me. From what I have seen I think the only thing that could have happened to electrify the red team base more than Palin would have been if Obama would have picked Hillary as his VP.

If McCain wins there will be no end to the Obama detractors blaming his pick of Biden over Hillary for his loss. Most of this will be misplaced blame, because picking Hillary would have done just as much for McCain as it would have done for Obama (maybe even more). I do wonder who McCain would have picked for his VP if Obama would have picked Hillary.

As for Palin the "pitbull" not being able to reach across the isle and make things work. Her record in Alaska seems to be to the contrary. She seems to have been able to pull off her share of compromise - even with the Sara Barracuda moniker. So much so that much of the red team party leaders in Alaska did not seem to hold her in good steed (prior to McCain tapping her for the VP slot).

I don't think any elected offical can ever hope to get enough compromise to happen in the current very polarized world of Washington. IMHO the key (regardless if it is McCain or Obama) is to go after things that they are most likely to be able to get compromise to happen, rather than targeting things they want most to happen and try to get compromise on those issues. Once they build up a record of compromise on the easiest things, then they can tackel the harder ones. Having already established themselves as leaders that compromise they can leverage that on the tough issues to force both sides to give more than they want or else being seen as the side that is holding things up.

On the compromise front McCain has said he will include Democrats in his cabinet (no doubt Liberman will be one of them). I have not heard Obama making similar claims - I have heard rumors that both Bill and Hillary Clinton will be offered cabinet seats. Personally I don't have a problem with that (I have doubts that either of them are willing to work under Obama), but I would be surprised if the red team does not eventually use this to fear monger some of their base - make sure McCain gets elected or you'll be stuck not only with Obama, but BOTH Clintons as well.

**Boon Mee** · 11-09-2008, 11:30 PM

From the London Times no less: What Sarah Palin Tells Us About Obama. "The character question it raises is not that he is a sexist or that he lacks courtesy. It is that he folds under pressure. Obama has looked amazingly uncomfortable under the pressure that Palin has put him under. He relies on his cool - it is a core part of his appeal. So he looks bad when he loses it. During the Hillary contest he rarely came under any pressure from the media. When he did he reacted badly."

Yeah, right...just what we need when that 3am phone call comes in eh?

**spiff** · 11-09-2008, 11:52 PM

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by "britmaveric"

I think McCain/Palin presidency has the needed tools to get things done in Congress.

Why do you think that?

Typical elitist interlectshual question from an Obama supporter. LOL

**Bugs** · 12-09-2008, 12:44 AM

Taking a look at the electoral map it seems things are pretty close, and getting closer by the day.

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 189 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 259, McCain 247.

If these numbers hold out until Nov, and we give both sides the benifit of doubt and let them both land their leaners, we would be left with four states that would decide who gets to live the White House, and rent out the Lincoln bedroom.

Toss-up states:
CO - 9
NM - 5
NV - 5
VA - 13

So now we have Obama with 259, and McCain with 247, and four toss-up states. If McCain lands VA and CO, and Obama lands NM and NV we now have a tie.

Obama = 259 + 5 + 5 = 269
McCain = 247 + 9 + 13 = 269

WE HAVE A TIE.

The 12 Amendment of the US Constitution says now the House gets to elect the president and the senate gets to elect the vp. McCain/Biden or Obama/Palin, anyone?

An interesting thing about the House vote for who gets to be president is that each state only gets one vote - not each member of the House. The blue team would still control things from that point of view 27 states to 21 - two states have an equal number of republican and democrats (interestingly enough Arizona is one of them). However, there are a number of states that McCain is likely to carry that have a majority of democrats in the house (Indiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia).

Do you think the vote would go straight party lines (I tend to think so), or would representatives be willing to vote based upon the popular vote of their state?

Would representatives from say West Virgina be risking not getting re-elected if the popular vote in their state was a double digit win for McCain, but they voted for Obama in the House vote?

Another interesting bit about this is that the Electoral College does cast their actual votes until early Dec. So we would have about of month of press coverage and political pundits that might influence the outcome of things - either in the electoral vote, or in the House vote.

Edit in: The vote in the House would include those voted into office during this election - likely to favor the blue team a bit more.

**raycarey** · 12-09-2008, 04:52 AM

Originally Posted by Bugs

Toss-up states:
CO - 9
NM - 5
NV - 5
VA - 13

fox news pollster rasmussen doesn't have ohio as a toss up?

shocking.

**Boon Mee** · 12-09-2008, 04:56 AM

^Heh...up early there ray...

**Boon Mee** · 13-09-2008, 03:05 AM

Originally Posted by panama hat

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

Originally Posted by Norton

If Palin was a consensus seeking type person she would have a near impossible task in reaching across the aisle given these differences. A pit bull kick ass personality behavior she has apparently used in Alaska will be opposed by a Congress full of a whole pack of far more experienced pit bulls. Partisan divides which now plague the government will severely deepen not lessen.

What you're really trying to say here Norts is if Palin was one of them appeasement types who prefers reading terrorists their rights as opposed to locking 'em up, the country & world would be a better place?

Sad, little one-track mind man.

Pathetic little rhetoric-spewing empty shill for 'Progressive' causes...

**Bugs** · 14-09-2008, 10:59 PM

A bit of a follow-up on a possible tie in the electoral college:

Colorado just might make a president -- baltimoresun.com

McCain, of course, would become president if he picked up every state Bush won last time. But Obama has a good chance to flip two of them back to the Democrats: Iowa and New Mexico. McCain, on the other hand, could set up the very real possibility of a 269-269 electoral college deadlock by taking New Hampshire back for the Republicans.

Expect to hear a lot more about that scenario if the race remains tight over the next month.

**Bugs** · 15-09-2008, 10:19 AM

This should be of assistance to anyone (US citizen) that wants to vote:
Voting is made easier for Americans abroad - International Herald Tribune

Software on the group's Web site, www.overseasvotefoundation.org, allows voters not only to print out the Federal Write-in Absentee Ballot, available to anyone failing to receive requested ballots in time; it uses their home ZIP codes to fill in the names of all relevant federal candidates.

To be sure that completed ballots are received by election offices in time - often a major impediment to voting successfully - another Overseas Vote Foundation initiative beginning Monday, in conjunction with FedEx, allows voters in 89 countries to send back ballots via the express service either free or at sharply discounted rates, depending on the country.

Information is also available from the Web sites of the two major U.S. political parties: Frontpage | Democrats Abroad and Republicans Abroad.

**Bugs** · 16-09-2008, 12:28 PM

What's up with Rasmussen Reports? As of late most of their state-by-state polls have been conducted in combination with FOX News. If Rasmussen wants to be considered an independent source they should certainly stay away from partnering with FOX News.

Yesterday they released state polls from Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virgina - all were joint polls with FOX News.

**Texpat** · 16-09-2008, 12:47 PM

^^ Cheers for that link Bugs. I'm subscribed to the US Embassy e-mail news here and they're usually good about sending out stuff like this. I would expect one soon.

Maybe I'll go do my weekly e-mail check.

**raycarey** · 16-09-2008, 12:55 PM

Originally Posted by Bugs

What's up with Rasmussen Reports?

gee, whoda thunk it?

**Bugs** · 17-09-2008, 10:37 PM

Not sure why they partnered up with FOX on those but the two latest Rassmussen Reports state polls where not done with FOX, they were Oregon and Wisconsin. Both with Obama in the lead but McCain has closed the gap in Wisconsin from a double digit (11) lead to within four:
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Oregon - not much of a change - Obama gained a point - now up by 10:
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Also good new for Obama - the Gallup poll has the race now with a single point lead for McCain:
Gallup Daily: Election 2008

Latest AP (with GFK) has McCain up by four:
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK...ings_final.pdf

Latest ARG has McCain up by three:
American Research Group

ARG also has some state polls included some of the state findings that I thought were interesting:
Colorado - McCain is up by 2 - this looks to be a toss-up state all the way to the end.
Illinois - Obama up by only 6 - I would expect Obama to carry Illinois by double digits
New Mexico - Obama by 6 - more than I expected - even though most seem to feel New Mexico will go down to the wire.
Ohio - McCain up by 6 - I think McCain will lock up Ohio with little problem come Nov
WV - McCain up by only 4 - I think McCain will win WV by double digits - and yes I think it will be mainly because of race.

All the states seem to indicate that less than 10% of voters stil remain undecided.

**Bugs** · 17-09-2008, 11:08 PM

I have two articals I will post about the swings in the polls, that have develope, and might still develope.

The first one kind of outlining the bounce that McCain got from the combination of the Palin pick and the red team convention:
McCain Has the Advantage Over Obama in Post-Convention Polls - Michael Barone (usnews.com)

I don't think there is any doubt that McCain got a bigger bounce out of the convention and the Palin pick, than Obama got out of the convention and the Biden pick. But much of that lead has been eliminated. That being said I am sure McCain would prefer to be on top (still inside the margin of error) as opposed to being on the bottom.

The post-convention national polls mostly show John McCain with a small lead over Barack Obama. But what's been happening in the states? I've been looking at the post-convention state polls at realclearpolitics.com, pollster.com, and ficethirtyeight.com and find some significant differences from pre-convention polls. They tend to suggest that the battlefield is shifting, with more states within McCain's reach and fewer within Obama's.

I think McCain will not really have a problem locking up Ohio in Nov. But it will be interesting to see how the current economic situation effects things in the weeks to come.

The big industrial states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are Obama +2, Ohio is McCain +3. In each case, McCain is 1 point better than Bush's final percentage against Kerry in each state. An old rule of American politics is that economic distress moves voters toward Democrats. Michigan, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania are in economic distress. But they haven't moved toward the Democratic nominee, as compared with 2004. The old rule isn't operating.

I know the polls are tight in Virginia, but I do think McCain will carry Virginia come Nov. Not sure about Colorado.

The new marginals. Obama has been running consistently better than John Kerry or Al Gore in Colorado and Virginia, states that have had comparatively vibrant economies and have also seen influxes of young voters, who tend to be heavily pro-Obama.

Polling in some of these states is a bit up in the air. I would agree McCain will land Alaska, Montana, North/Sourth Dakota. I think Minnesota and Wisconsin might be toss-up (Minnesotat more so than Wisconsin), but I have a hard time believing that McCain has a real shot at either Oregon or Washington.

The northern tier. The Obama campaign had hoped to be competitive in some northern tier states: the Dakotas, Montana, and Alaska. Pre-convention polls provided some reasonable basis for this hope. Post-convention polls don't. Alaska, unsurprisingly, is McCain-Palin +27. Montana is McCain +11, North Dakota McCain +14, South Dakota +17. More importantly, Minnesota is just Obama +1, Wisconsin Obama +3, Washington Obama +4, Oregon Obama +7.

It would seem that indeed Nevada and New Mexico might will be toss-ups.

The western odd ducks. Nevada is McCain +2. New Mexico, in a shift from pre-convention polls, is McCain +2 (but that's only one poll). These states were seriously contested in 2000 and 2004 and look to be again in 2008.

No major surprised in the rest - McCain will carry the south, and Obama wil take the Northeast. Though the numbers in New Hampshire and New York (poll numbers in New York all over the place - some with double diget Obama leads, some with McCain within 5), are better than I expected for McCain in general.

**Bugs** · 17-09-2008, 11:30 PM

Ok, so McCain got a bigger bounce but will we see more swings?

National Journal Online - Are We Due For Another Momentum Shift?

Same, same as above - McCain gets a bounce.

It has been almost two weeks since the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. It's now clear that while Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois got a bounce out of the Democratic gathering in Denver, Sen. John McCain of Arizona -- or maybe I should say his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- got a bigger one out of the GOP event in St. Paul, Minn.

Polls seem to show that the bounces have settled to a point where the race is very close. Partisans are galvanized on both sides, with a narrow slice of largely independent undecided voters in the middle.

Indeed what's next?

The question now is, what's next? This is an obviously subjective judgment, but there seems to be a tonal shift in the national conversation over the last few days compared to early last week.

Will be interesting to see how the the situation in the financial markets will play out politically.

But now the collapse of venerable financial institutions might well dominate public attention in mid-September. While relatively few are immediately affected by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the fire sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America, the reverberations that such economic calamities cause are likely coming soon.

The more poor economic news I think the better for Obama, but as long as things like what recently happened in Yemen happen folks will not take there focus completely off of the national security issue.

In addition, consumer confidence is further eroded, buyers are spooked, business expansion and increased hiring decisions are shelved, and the cycle continues its spiral downward.

While managing the economy is not exactly Obama's strong suit, it does pull the focus even further away from national security, McCain's strength. It would seem a better bet that this jump ball would be more likely go toward the team that hasn't been in power, and the edge would go to Obama.

**Bugs** · 18-09-2008, 09:12 AM

Obama is back in the lead.

Gallup - Obama 47, McCain 45:
Gallup Daily: Election 2008

CBS: Obama 48, McCain 43:
Poll: Obama Retakes Lead Over McCain, CBS News/New York Times Survey Shows Democrat With 5 Point Advantage; Voters Express Concerns About GOP V.P. Pick Sarah Palin - CBS News

This is one of the first polls I have seen where Obama has maintained the same lead with likely voters as well.

In the new poll, the gap among likely voters is the same as it is among registered voters: Obama leads among those seen as likely to go to the polls in November 49 percent to 44 percent.

**Norton** · 18-09-2008, 11:10 AM

Originally Posted by Bugs

Obama is back in the lead.

Both campaigns are scrambling to retool message for the crisis of the day. The economy!!

I am again reminded every election always ends up the same.

It's the economy stupid!!!

McCain will work hard to distance himself from GWB economic policy.

Obama will redouble his effort in portraying McCain's economic policy as more of the same as GWB's.

Given the severity of the economic situation, this will be the issue that dominates the headlines and will tip the election in favor of the candidate that has the most convincing story.

I don't believe either candidate has the "answer" but the perception the economy is attributable to Republican "mismanagement" will give Obama the edge.

**GooMaiRoo** · 18-09-2008, 11:13 AM

Originally Posted by Bugs

What's up with Rasmussen Reports? As of late most of their state-by-state polls have been conducted in combination with FOX News.

Try realclearpolitics.com, it has lots of polls and articles from the mainstream political spectrum. The link below shows Obama squeeking by in the electoral college by taking just 3 more states than Kerry did (N.Mexico, Colorado and Iowa). If it's close, I think those are the 3 states to look at, with Colorado deciding the whole thing. But if the economy turns to sh*t , Obama may win handily. One reason he's jumped ahead this week is the chaos in the financial markets.

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

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