Taking a look at the electoral map it seems things are pretty close, and getting closer by the day.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. Quote:
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Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 189 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 259, McCain 247.
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If these numbers hold out until Nov, and we give both sides the benifit of doubt and let them both land their leaners, we would be left with four states that would decide who gets to live the White House, and rent out the Lincoln bedroom.
Quote:
Toss-up states:
CO - 9
NM - 5
NV - 5
VA - 13
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So now we have Obama with 259, and McCain with 247, and four toss-up states. If McCain lands VA and CO, and Obama lands NM and NV we now have a tie.
Obama = 259 + 5 + 5 = 269
McCain = 247 + 9 + 13 = 269
WE HAVE A TIE.
The 12 Amendment of the US Constitution says now the House gets to elect the president and the senate gets to elect the vp. McCain/Biden or Obama/Palin, anyone?
An interesting thing about the House vote for who gets to be president is that each state only gets one vote - not each member of the House. The blue team would still control things from that point of view 27 states to 21 - two states have an equal number of republican and democrats (interestingly enough Arizona is one of them). However, there are a number of states that McCain is likely to carry that have a majority of democrats in the house (Indiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia).
Do you think the vote would go straight party lines (I tend to think so), or would representatives be willing to vote based upon the popular vote of their state?
Would representatives from say West Virgina be risking not getting re-elected if the popular vote in their state was a double digit win for McCain, but they voted for Obama in the House vote?
Another interesting bit about this is that the Electoral College does cast their actual votes until early Dec. So we would have about of month of press coverage and political pundits that might influence the outcome of things - either in the electoral vote, or in the House vote.
Edit in: The vote in the House would include those voted into office during this election - likely to favor the blue team a bit more.