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Originally Posted by Norton  The President is selected by the number of electoral votes they receive. The campaigns will focus on getting electoral votes. 270 are needed to win.
Here's one such poll, the CNN electoral vote polling. Other's may differ but from what I have seen not by much. |
Indeed, in a close race, the key will be who fights the best electoral fight. Obama has the money to fight a wider battle. For McCain to win his team needs to identify where they have the best shot at making gains and spending money wisely in those areas.
Here is the Rasmussen Electoral Update. In Rasmussen daily tracking Obama got the much anticipated convention bounce, and Obama still has the edge in the electoral race. But the state-by-state break down looks much more favorable for McCain than it ever has:
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.
Safe Red team - 62
Likely Red team - 121 (121 + 62 = 183)
Leans Red team - 64
Toss up - 27
Leans Blue team - 71
Likely Blue team - 50
Safe Blue team - 143 (50 + 143 = 193)
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Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 183 Electoral College votes. Previously, Obama had enjoyed a 210–165 advantage.
Currently, states with 135 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other, and three states with a total of 27 votes -- Colorado, Nevada and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.
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So Obama has lost 17 electoral votes, and McCain has gained 18 electoral votes. The Obama lead has shrunk from 45 to 10 - quite a move for McCain.
The details of where the gains/losses came from:
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Ohio—with 20 Electoral College votes--moved from Toss-up to Leans Republican following the second straight Rasmussen Reports telephone survey that showed McCain with a modest lead over Obama.
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Swing state of Ohio inches closer to the red team.
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North Carolina—with 15 Electoral College votes—moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. This change was based on the latest Rasmussen Reports poiling and changes in the RasmussenMarkets.com data.
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NC moves into the red team camp.
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Wisconsin—with 10 Electoral College votes—moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. That move was prompted by the latest Rasmussen Reports polling which shows McCain closing to within four percentage points of Obama.
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Wisconsin inches away from the blue team.
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Colorado—with 9 Electoral College votes--moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up, based primarily upon the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in which McCain holds a statistically insignificant two-point lead over Obama.
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Colorado also inches away from the blue team.
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Oregon—with 7 Electoral College votes—moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. While the latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows Obama with a 10-point lead, the average of other polls and a national trends adjustment places the state in the leaner category.
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Oregon - yet another state inching away from the blue team.
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South Dakota—with 3 Electoral College votes--shifted from Leans Republican to Likely Republican based upon Rasmussen Markets data and a national trends adjustment.
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SD - and another team that moves into the red team camp.
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Other states had more minor changes: Connecticut from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic, Louisiana from Likely Republican to Safely Republican, Maine from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Tennesseefrom Likely Republican to Safely Republican.
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Not only were all the big moves good news for the red team, but all of the small moves were as well.
Tenn and LA move deeper into the red camp (LA surprises me, I think Obama has a shot with many of the southern states because of the relative high black populations. Tenn no big surprise to me, I expect them to be firmly in the red team column come Nov).
Blue team looses ground in Maine as well as Conn (much more likely that Maine could end up on the red team column come Nov than there is that Conn will.)