This financial crisis is now truly global

[Jesus Jones]

The financial crisis has moved from Wall Street to all streets, as the economic shock causes strains and suffering in every part of the world economy.


In Florida, a state devastated by tumbling house prices and repossessions, the inhabitants are arming themselves against recession, with requests for concealed weapon permits up 42 per cent in the past 45 days. In Moscow, the murder rate has climbed by 16 per cent. At Tetsuya's – the most exclusive and expensive restaurant in Sydney – the waiting list has shrunk from three months to 24 hours.
Over the past few months, we were told that we were caught in the worst economic crisis for 20 years, then 30, then 80, then 100. It can't be long before someone points out that really, all things considered, the Black Death was comparatively pleasant. But beyond the hyperbole, one thing is clear: what began as a financial problem in certain debt-soaked nations is battering the economies of dozens of others, as well as millions of people working in almost every trade. It will change behaviour and alter the pecking order of the world's economies. There will be social unrest and changes of regime. Received wisdom, whether about the benefits of free trade, globalisation or European integration, may be cast on to a bonfire of recrimination. Estimates of how long the pain will last range from a year to a decade. Bring out your dead.



Among the most significant developments has been the realisation that the most prudent countries – such as Germany, Japan and China – will suffer as badly as the spendthrifts, or even worse. Despite the whiff of hubris that wafted from Berlin when the banks of Britain and America went into meltdown, Germany's economy contracted by two per cent in the last quarter of 2008, compared with 1.5 per cent for Britain's. The problem was that the Chinese and Germans were too thrifty: their countries' growth was reliant on sales of goods to countries that were borrowing. Now that Americans can't afford its products, China's exports have collapsed, down 17.5 per cent in January from a year earlier.





http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...ly-global.html

[Mid]

now don't go upsetting folks with that ,

still plenty who'll argue black 'n blue it aint true

[Nawty]

If people would just be a bit more positive....it would simply go away.

[mellow]

Don't worry, Thailand is self sufficient, and doing fine.

[killerbees]

Riiiiiiiiiiight...

I'd agree with JJ on this one. We're all well and truly screwed for the foreseeable future.

[watterinja]

[Butterfly]

we are only screwed if we all fall in the doom and gloom stories, it's all paper loss at the end, but it becomes real if we start to follow the silly depressing news

self-fulfilling prophecy and all that,

[Ghandi]

If people would just be a bit more positive....it would simply go away.

Great line , worthy of being framed !!!

Wish it were true......

[Rural Surin]

It gets down to how one wants to live. Those whom insist towards living a illusional existence far beyond their means will be the ones who suffer the most. When you have nothing, you have nothing to lose.

[Rural Surin]

we are only screwed if we all fall in the doom and gloom stories, it's all paper loss at the end, but it becomes real if we start to follow the silly depressing news

self-fulfilling prophecy and all that,

You'll be safe....until that bubble of illusion and deluded fantasy burst - the bubble that some civilizations insist to be in. Reality will set it's course, when the protective bubble burst.

[robuzo]

If people would just be a bit more positive....it would simply go away.

Great line , worthy of being framed !!!

Wish it were true......

It's partly true. There is a vicious cycle occurring. This has been a major part of Japan's troubles for years, and is an important reason why, after it is all said and done, they were only able to export their way out of trouble. Americans are now scared shitless themselves, and while their profligate spending needed to come to an end, the pendulum has now swung too far in the other direction. As the news continues to worsen their fears will only increase, causing even more bad news. . .

[Butterfly]

You'll be safe....until that bubble of illusion and deluded fantasy burst - the bubble that some civilizations insist to be in. Reality will set it's course, when the protective bubble burst.

the reality is that we should be living in caves beating our wifes and eating funny animals, surely there must be a better alternative

[Rural Surin]

You'll be safe....until that bubble of illusion and deluded fantasy burst - the bubble that some civilizations insist to be in. Reality will set it's course, when the protective bubble burst.

the reality is that we should be living in caves beating our wifes and eating funny animals, surely there must be a better alternative

There is an alternative. Though it's not really alternative. It just is.......the culprit is this mindless drive for consuption and stimulation. Remember that theory? Those whom finish with the accumulated shite, wins!

[Butterfly]

It just is.......the culprit is this mindless drive for consuption and stimulation. Remember that theory? Those whom finish with the accumulated shite, wins!

it's a game that play over centuries, so technically you might be right when you look at the beginning and the end of the game, but in the meantime we have no other choice than play the game

The alternative is a dry up of companies and suppliers, which would ultimately means no more choice of products. Capitalism would have achieved what Communism didn't. A sustainable uniform product line for a stable uniform demand. It's going to be a very boring world.

[Mid]

it's all paper loss at the end

crap , prices ain't comming down so purchasing power ain't what it was .

[robuzo]

it's all paper loss at the end

crap , prices ain't comming down so purchasing power ain't what it was .

The "experts" don't seem to know if we are going to have a deflationary spiral (some evidence of that), wild inflation, or one then the other.

It ain't a "paper loss" if the loss is your job. Recall the old definition of what is a depression vs. a recession?

[Butterfly]

^ there are currently two crisis, which makes it difficult for many to understand what's going on

one is the financial paper loss of the subprime mess, it's the accounting standards debates, there is no cash involved, except for the need of fresh capital to "rebalance" the ratios and the "virtual" losses, but really it's because of a silly convention (marked to market), and it's a self-made crisis in the financial sector

then you have another more deeper crisis, the supply shock we suffered last year when oil went to 150. This has impacted directly Aggregate Demand, and we are in deep shit, basically going to a deep recession.

Now the first crisis on the top of the second one is just compounding the negative effect on consumer confidence and global demand, but technically they are unrelated or at least have different causes.

[HermantheGerman]

^ there are currently two crisis, which makes it difficult for many to understand what's going on

Does anyone know what is going on ?

There is more bad news coming everyday and a lot of people (like me) are asking themselves "Why did'nt these experts know about this? "

Or are these experts not allowed to say the truth...or else they will join unemployment line.

[Jesus Jones]

^Some think it was planned, but you will be labelled a conspiricy nut if you mention that.

But i'll happily take that label.

And i think your question should ask more questions. Why?

[Rural Surin]

^ there are currently two crisis, which makes it difficult for many to understand what's going on

Does anyone know what is going on ?

There is more bad news coming everyday and a lot of people (like me) are asking themselves "Why did'nt these experts know about this? "

Or are these experts not allowed to say the truth...or else they will join unemployment line.

Because the 'experts' are them.

[Butterfly]

Does anyone know what is going on ?

yes quite a few people know, but all you hear in the press is panic and non-sensible explanation, mostly because it's easier to sell as a story. As usual, the truth is more complex but not as dark, and not very gray either.

There is more bad news coming everyday and a lot of people (like me) are asking themselves "Why did'nt these experts know about this? "

Experts know fuck all, it's impossible to forecast precisely when the shit is going to hit the fan (unless of course your name is bkkandrew). And the issue is not about experts. Plenty of experts have been trying to warn politicians, regulators, the press etc... about the incoming fuckup but nobody was listening, not even the public. Even if it was forecasted precisely, there would have been little chance that you or anyone would have listened. So why even bother ?

Or are these experts not allowed to say the truth...or else they will join unemployment line.

The experts can offer only an explanation, but it will take a few years to "modelize" and explain what happened exactly, with the right supporting numbers. For now, we just know we have 2 important crisis in parallel, might be a first time actually, and they all came at the wrong time. The supply shock was definitely the worst one, yet more silent. Without it, the subprime mess would have been forgotten in a matter of months. Now, they will feed on each other like a storm feeding a hurricane.

[Escapeeeeeee]

Add to your global list of doom Germany where I have just bailed out from. My 'job' may have been called one of the most safe in the world 6 months ago. It will still be safe - until the company collapses (which is imminent). It is also in the top 20 German firms by size in last years results!!!

I have my cash. I have left. I am now here.

[Butterfly]

^ which company ? tell us more, this is interesting

[Escapeeeeeee]

It doesn't really matter which one as all of them from Siemens down are in the same boat. Their business models are just not stress tested for a prolonged decimation of income and inability to borrow. When you consider the fixed employee costs, the money will simply run out. It is. I ran out too. To here!!!

[HermantheGerman]

^ which company ? tell us more, this is interesting

My guess..SAP ?