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  1. #251
    DRESDEN ZWINGER
    david44's Avatar
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    Free aircon/ cold showers here in N Wales

    Down to 6 Friday in the valley nearer zero on the hilltops
    Llanberis - BBC Weather

    if it weren't for hot lamb I'd shiver me timbers, makes me really appreciate LOS, it is far easier to cool a room and shop in evening than wrap up like Scott of the Pollit and dry cold damp Barbours sox wellies
    Quote Originally Posted by taxexile View Post
    your brain is as empty as a eunuchs underpants.
    from brief encounters unexpurgated version

  2. #252
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    What you need to know about record-breaking heat in the Atlantic

    Waters across the Atlantic’s tropical belt — extending from the coast of Africa through the Caribbean — are hotter now than in any other late May on record, with over 90% of the area’s sea surface engulfed in record or near-record warmth. The extent of marine heat has never been greater heading into a hurricane season, outpacing by wide margins the previous late May record-holder in 2005, a year remembered for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.




    Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it, especially when the abnormal warmth coincides with the tropical belt known as the Main Development Region, or MDR, the area where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form. When considered alongside a developing La Niņa — the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific that reduces storm-busting Atlantic wind shear — the unprecedented ocean heat is driving up seasonal hurricane outlooks higher than ever before.

    Colorado State University — the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s — issued its most aggressive April forecast last month in almost 30 years of doing such preseason outlooks. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, will release its first 2024 hurricane season outlook May 23, and expectations are for similarly bullish numbers.

    https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2...-the-atlantic/
    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

  3. #253
    DRESDEN ZWINGER
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    5 in the valley tonight up here 2-3 forecast have unplugged the fridge.
    Wales come home to a real fire.

  4. #254
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    NOAA forecasts extraordinarily busy Atlantic hurricane season

    The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season features an unprecedented combination of air and ocean conditions, and is likely to be extremely active, according to the U.S. government's official seasonal outlook released this morning.

    Why it matters: Hurricanes are nature's largest and most expensive storms, and the odds of a U.S. landfall during an above average season may be generally higher this year.


    • "This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways," said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration administrator Rick Spinrad in a press conference.


    By the numbers: The NOAA is forecasting the season will bring 85% odds of an above normal season, with 17–25 named storms of tropical storm intensity or greater, eight to 13 of which will become hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.


    • This is the most aggressive hurricane season outlook that NOAA has ever issued for its May outlook, Spinrad said.
    • The numbers are well above the 1991–2020 average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes each season.
    • NOAA is projecting just a 5% chance of a below average season.


    Threat level: This season will officially start on June 1 in unparalleled territory.


    • There are record to near-record warm ocean waters in every part of the Atlantic, from the Caribbean to the "Main Development Region," where many of the fiercest storms with the highest odds of affecting the Leeward Islands and U.S. get their start, all the way to more northern latitudes.


    Stunning stat: The Caribbean's current average ocean temperature is currently higher than the 1991–2020 typical peak for an entire season, whereas the Main Development Region's ocean heat content is at Aug. 10 levels.


    • The Gulf of Mexico is also warmer than average.


    How it works: Warm water is hurricane fuel. There are few signs that a significant cool down will take place between now and the heart of the season in August and September.


    • However, some portions of the Atlantic may be knocked out of record territory during the season.


    The big picture: At the same time, in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, a transition from a strong El Niņo to a La Niņa event is underway. La Niņa typically reduces upper level winds over the tropical Atlantic, which can weaken tropical storms and hurricanes.


    • According to Michael Lowry, a hurricane and storm surge specialist for WPLG Local 10 in Miami, La Niņa can allow storms to form closer to the East Coast and threaten land, given the relaxed wind shear.
    • "The switch from a potent El Niņo in 2023 to La Niņa conditions by the 2024 hurricane season would not only reduce storm-busting wind shear in the Atlantic, it could also lessen that protection closer to land areas, including the mainland U.S.," Lowry told Axios via email.
    • "While seasonal hurricane forecasts can't tell us when or where a storm might strike, the record warm waters through the Caribbean and Gulf combined with a potential La Niņa does stack the deck in favor of development farther west in the Atlantic this year and potentially closer to land areas."


    Yes, but: There are factors that could thwart nascent tropical storms and hurricanes even with extremely warm waters present.


    • These include the presence of dry air in mid levels of the atmosphere, and Sahara dust blowing across the Atlantic from western Africa.


    In addition, while the oceans would support intense storms, clusters of thunderstorms, or "seeds" of tropical storms, are required in order to generate hurricanes.


    • These could be missing in action this season, though computer models do not suggest this will be the case.


    Context: This season comes as numerous studies point to climate change's increasingly clear influence on hurricanes.




    The bottom line: There are plenty of critics of seasonal hurricane outlooks who say they do not provide people with actionable information.


    • But Lowry urged people to prepare for this season as they would for any other, and to take advantage of state tax holidays, which Florida has on June 1, for example, to stock up on supplies.

  5. #255
    Thailand Expat HermantheGerman's Avatar
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    Those Hicks will be playing more of their favorite Neil Young "Like a Hurricane".

  6. #256

  7. #257
    Excommunicated baldrick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S Landreth View Post
    Yes, but: There are factors that could thwart nascent tropical storms and hurricanes even with extremely warm waters present
    I think I heard someone mention atomic bombs ��

  8. #258
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    He’s a fvckin’ idiot

    "I got it. I got it. Why don't we nuke them?"

    Another idiot remark…….

    Wind turbines - “They say the noise causes cancer.”

  9. #259
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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  10. #260
    DRESDEN ZWINGER
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    In under 4 weeks the days get shorter in the chilly North.

    7 in the valley 4-5 tonight amongst the sheep and goats

    Llanberis - BBC Weather

    Why is it so Hot Everywhere?-e87f99d9-4187-4686-9a0b-b9bc471bc406-jpg

    If the Blotto come up my new wheels from Sweden

    Why is it so Hot Everywhere?-dsc_3870-jpg


    Of course the melting glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are very worrying.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Why is it so Hot Everywhere?-e87f99d9-4187-4686-9a0b-b9bc471bc406-jpg   Why is it so Hot Everywhere?-dsc_3870-jpg  

  11. #261
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Well I've put the air purifier away and switched the AC to "Fan Only".

    So it's not hot everywhere any more.

  12. #262
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    May numbers should be out next week



  13. #263
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Climate Change Added a Month’s Worth of Extra-Hot Days in Past Year


    One of a few

    Key findings from the report include:


    • Over the last 12 months, human-caused climate change added an average of 26 days of extreme heat (on average, across all places in the world) than there would have been without a warmed planet. This report also demonstrates the crucial role of tracking and reporting on impacts in extreme heat assessment, and offers actionable solutions to heat risk.

  14. #264
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Well I've put the air purifier away and switched the AC to "Fan Only".

    So it's not hot everywhere any more.
    Same. Finally relief from the heat.

  15. #265
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Exceptionally early heat wave hits Finland

    Finland has been experiencing unusually warm weather this May, prompting the Meteorological Institute to issue a heat warning on Monday.

    Temperatures across large parts of the Nordic nation, the north of which lies above the Arctic Circle, are due to surge above 27C (81 F) starting on Tuesday, the institute said.

    "This is probably the first time ever we have issued a heat wave warning in May", Iiris Viljamaa from the Finnish Meteorological Institute told AFP, adding that such alerts were normally issued in June at the earliest.

    Scientists say that recurring heat waves are a clear marker of global warming and that these heat waves are set to become more frequent, longer and more intense.

    Exceptionally hot weather until possible relief at the weekend

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