Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Originally Posted by malmomike77

ooks like the UK is trying to unlock the fighter jet impasse

Nice to see UK pushing the envelope to prod the other more reluctant nation into action, but…

Originally Posted by malmomike77

Britain is prepared to send fighter jets to its Eastern European allies in order to unlock shipments of Soviet-era aircraft to Ukraine

That's good, but just give Ukraine the Tornados. Even better.

LONDON (Reuters) - Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.


Medvedev, who is now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, made the comments in a message on his Telegram account exactly a year after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in what it called a "special military operation" to protect Russian speakers and ensure its own security.


Ukraine says it is defending itself from an unprovoked colonial-style war of aggression and has vowed to retake all of its own territory by force, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.


Medvedev, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, forecast on Friday that Russia would be victorious and that some kind of loose agreement would eventually end the fighting.


"Victory will be achieved. We all want it to happen as soon as possible. And that day will come," said Medvedev. He predicted that tough negotiations with Ukraine and the West would follow that would culminate in "some kind of agreement."


But he said that deal would lack what he called "fundamental agreements on real borders" and not amount to an over-arching European security pact, making it vital for Russia to extend its own borders now.


"That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland," said Medvedev.


Poland shares long eastern borders with Ukraine and with Russia's ally Belarus, and a frontier of some 200 km (125 miles) in its northeastern corner with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.


Any encroachment on Poland's borders would bring Russia for the first time into direct conflict with NATO. U.S. President Joe Biden pledged in a speech in Warsaw this week to defend "every inch" of NATO territory if it was attacked.


Medvedev, 57, has adopted an increasingly hawkish tone and made a series of outspoken interventions since the war began with some political analysts suggesting he is one of the people that Putin might one day consider as a successor.

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

And every time anyone wants to justify joining NATO...

Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, says Moscow appreciated China’s plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and said it was open to achieving the goals of what it calls its “special military operation” through political and diplomatic means.

She said:

We appreciate the sincere desire of our Chinese friends to contribute to resolving the conflict in Ukraine by peaceful means... We share the views of Beijing.

However, this would also mean recognising “new territorital realities” in Ukraine, Zakharova said, referring to Russia’s unilateral annexation of four Ukrainian regions - Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - as well as of Crimea.

Her remarks came as Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said there were points in the Chinese proposals that were understandable” and “there are those that we don’t”.

“But it’s something,” he added at a news conference on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion.

Zelenskiy said:

China has shown its thoughts. I believe that the fact that China started talking about Ukraine is not bad.
But the question is what follows the words. The question is in the steps and where they will lead to.

Russia-Ukraine war live: Kyiv and Moscow welcome China’s intervention in peace process | Ukraine | The Guardian

UN approves resolution calling for Russia to leave Ukraine

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. General Assembly approved a nonbinding resolution Thursday that calls for Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces, sending a strong message on the eve of the first anniversary of the invasion that Moscow’s aggression must stop.


The resolution, drafted by Ukraine in consultation with its allies, passed 141-7, with 32 abstentions.


Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the vote was more evidence that not only the West backs his country.


“This vote defies the argument that the global south does not stand on Ukraine’s side,” Kuleba said. “Many countries representing Latin America, Africa, Asia voted in favor.”


The General Assembly has become the most important U.N. body dealing with Ukraine because the Security Council, which is charged with maintaining international peace and security, is paralyzed by Russia’s veto power. General Assembly resolutions are not legally binding, unlike Security Council resolutions, but serve as a barometer of world opinion.


The seven countries voting against Thursday’s resolution were Belarus, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria, North Korea, Eritrea and Mali, which has developed close military ties with Russia. Amendments proposed by Belarus would have stripped much of the language but were resoundingly defeated.


The vote was slightly below the highest total for the five previous resolutions approved by the 193-member world body since Russia sent troops and tanks across the border into its smaller neighbor on Feb. 24, 2022. That tally, in an October resolution against Russia’s illegal annexations, won approval by 143 countries.


Foreign ministers and diplomats from more than 75 countries addressed the assembly during two days of debate, with many urging support for the resolution that upholds Ukraine’s territorial integrity, a basic principle of the U.N. Charter that all countries must subscribe to when they join the world organization.


The war has killed tens of thousands on both sides and has reduced entire Ukrainian cities to ruins and its impact has been felt worldwide in higher food and fuel costs and rising inflation.


Venezuela’s deputy ambassador addressed the council on behalf of 16 countries that either voted against or abstained on almost all of five previous resolutions on Ukraine: Belarus, Bolivia, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Laos, Mali, Nicaragua, North Korea, St. Vincent, Syria, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.


While other countries focused on Russia’s actions, Venezuelan Deputy Ambassador Joaquín Pérez Ayestarán said Wednesday that all countries without exception “must stringently comply with the United Nations Charter,” a barely veiled dig at an international order long dominated by the U.S. and Europe, and at what some call violations of the charter.


Ayestarán said the countries in his group were against what he called divisive action in the General Assembly, and for “a spirit of compromise.”


European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters that the aggressor and the victim can’t be put on equal terms. But China’s deputy U.N. ambassador, Dai Bing, told the assembly Thursday: “We support Russia and Ukraine in moving towards each other. … The international community should make joint efforts to facilitate peace talks.”


China says it is neutral in the conflict and an advocate of peace talks, but has not criticized the invasion or described it as such. Beijing has condemned the U.S. and its allies over sanctions on Moscow and military assistance to Ukraine. China and Russia have increasingly aligned their foreign policies to oppose the U.S.-led international order.


Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed the strength of those ties when he met Russian leader Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow this week.


More broadly, Russia and Ukraine have been trying to win support from around the world.


The head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, spoke Tuesday about the U.N. resolution with India’s national security adviser because “Ukraine is interested in the broadest possible support for the resolution, in particular from the countries of the global south,” a statement from Zelenskyy’s office said.


India had a Cold War dependence on the Soviet Union and has abstained several times from voting on U.N. Security Council resolutions demanding that Russia cease its invasion.


Less-powerful countries, including many in Africa, also have been caught up in the diplomatic wrangling.


“We were colonized, and we forgive those who colonized us. Now the colonizers are asking us to be enemies with Russia, who never colonized us; is that fair?” Uganda’s foreign minister, Abubaker Jeje Odongo, told the Sputnik news agency this month.


Russia is Africa’s top arms supplier and Odongo also noted that most of his country’s military equipment is Russian-made.


“Countries in Africa have traditionally been attached in the Cold War division to the Soviet Union, having the old nostalgia, but also Russia has good tools, how to motivate them to be on their side,” Slovak Foreign Minister Rastislav Káčer told reporters in New York on Thursday. “And then there are others, like China, who are big powers, and are very carefully following what’s going on, and calculating what’s good for them.”

UN approves resolution calling for Russia to leave Ukraine | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

China calls for Russia-Ukraine cease-fire, peace talks

BEIJING (AP) — China, a firm Russian ally, has called for a cease-fire between Ukraine and Moscow and the opening of peace talks as part of a 12-point proposal to end the conflict.


The plan issued Friday morning by the Foreign Ministry also urges the end of Western sanctions imposed on Russia, measures to ensure the safety of nuclear facilities, the establishment of humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians, and steps to ensure the export of grain after disruptions caused global food prices to spike.


China has claimed to be neutral in the conflict, but it has a “no limits” relationship with Russia and has refused to criticize its invasion of Ukraine over even refer to it as such, while accusing the West of provoking the conflict and “fanning the flames” by providing Ukraine with defensive arms.


China and Russia have increasingly aligned their foreign policies to oppose the U.S.-led liberal international order. Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed the strength of those ties when he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow this week.


China has also been accused by the U.S. of possibly preparing to provide Russia with military aid, something Beijing says lacks evidence.


Given China’s positions, that throws doubt on whether its 12-point proposal has any hope of going ahead — or whether China is seen as an honest broker.


Before the proposal was released, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it an important first step.


“I think that, in general, the fact that China started talking about peace in Ukraine, I think that it is not bad. It is important for us that all states are on our side, on the side of justice,” he said at a news conference Friday with Spain’s prime minister.


State Department spokesman Ned Price said earlier Thursday that the U.S. would reserve judgment but that China’s allegiance with Russia meant it was not a neutral mediator. “We would like to see nothing more than a just and durable peace … but we are skeptical that reports of a proposal like this will be a constructive path forward,” he said.


Price added that the U.S. hopes “all countries that have a relationship with Russia unlike the one that we have will use that leverage, will use that influence to push Russia meaningfully and usefully to end this brutal war of aggression. (China) is in a position to do that in ways that we just aren’t.”


The peace proposal mainly elaborated on long-held Chinese positions, including referring to the need that all countries’ “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity be effectively guaranteed.”


It also called an end to the “Cold War mentality” — it’s standard term for what it regards as U.S. hegemony and interference in other countries.


“A country’s security cannot be at the expense of other countries’ security, and regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military blocs,” the proposal said. “The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries should be taken seriously and properly addressed.”


China abstained Thursday when the U.N. General Assembly approved a nonbinding resolution that calls for Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces. It is one of 16 countries that either voted against or abstained on almost all of five previous resolutions on Ukraine.


The resolution, drafted by Ukraine in consultation with its allies, passed 141-7 with 32 abstentions, sending a strong message on the eve of the first anniversary of the invasion that appears to leave Russia more isolated than ever.


While China has not been openly critical of Moscow, it has said that the present conflict is “not something it wishes to see,” and has repeatedly said any use of nuclear weapons would be completely unacceptable, in an implied repudiation of Putin’s statement that Russia would use “all available means” to protect its territory.


“There are no winners in conflict wars,” the proposal said.


“All parties should maintain rationality and restraint … support Russia and Ukraine to meet each other, resume direct dialogue as soon as possible, gradually promote the de-escalation and relaxation of the situation, and finally reach a comprehensive ceasefire,” it said.

China calls for Russia-Ukraine cease-fire, peace talks | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

Ukraine's Zelensky says he plans to meet China's Xi

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday he plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping but did not say when such a meeting might take place.
"I plan to meet Xi Jinping and believe this will be beneficial for our countries and for security in the world," he told a news conference in Kyiv on the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


Zelensky had earlier reiterated that he would not hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.


Ukraine welcomes elements of Chinese ceasefire proposal


Zelensky on Friday welcomed some elements of a Chinese proposal for a ceasefire in Russia's war on Ukraine but said only the country where a war is being fought should be the initiator of a peace plan.


"It's an important signal that they are preparing to take part in this theme," he said during a news conference in Kyiv, referring to China's bid to broker peace.


"So far, I see this as a signal - I don't know what will happen later."


Zelensky, who said he believed Russia-allied China did not offer a concrete plan but some "thoughts," also warned Beijing against providing Moscow with arms.

"I very much want to believe that China will not deliver weapons to Russia, and for me this is very important," he said, speaking on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion.


"This is point number one."

Attention Required! | Cloudflare

Three days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a huge 10-mile (15.5km) line of armoured vehicles was spotted by a satellite in the north of the country. The very same morning in Bucha, just outside Kyiv, 67-year-old Volodymyr Scherbynyn was standing outside his local supermarket when more than a hundred Russian military vehicles rolled into town.

Both Volodymyr and the satellite were witnesses to a key part of President Vladimir Putin's plan for a quick and overwhelming victory. They were also witnesses to its failure.

The western media called it a convoy. In reality, it was a traffic jam and a major tactical blunder. Forty-eight hours after that first satellite photograph, on 28 February 2022, the line of vehicles had grown to a colossal 35 miles (56 km) long. The vehicles were stalled for weeks. Then finally they retreated, and seemingly disappeared overnight.

What happened? Why did such a massive force fail to reach Kyiv?

A BBC team spoke to dozens of witnesses; including military personnel, national and international intelligence services, civilians, veterans, and the territorial defence, all of whom came into contact with the convoy. It also gained access to Russian maps and documents that shed light on what the plan actually was, and why it went so spectacularly wrong.

The first hours

The story starts on the first day of the war, in the north of Ukraine at its border with Belarus.

Stepping outside for his first cigarette of the day, 23-year-old Vladyslav from Ukraine's 80th Air Assault Brigade saw a flurry of bright lights in the night sky.

"I remember watching the lights emerge from the whole forest. At first I thought they were car headlights. But then I realised they were Grads [self-propelled multiple missile launchers]. They were firing at us."

Camped deep within the forest of the Chernobyl exclusion zone, Vladyslav's unit was on patrol when the first Russian vehicles crossed into Ukraine.

"The whole earth was shaking. Have you ever been in a tank? There's no other sound like it. It's a powerful thing."

As planned in the event of any attack, Vladyslav and the rest of the 80th brigade blew up the bridge connecting Chernobyl to the next big town, Ivankiv.

The Russians would be forced to waste time building a replacement pontoon bridge, giving Vladyslav and his unit time to pull back to Kyiv.

"At first I was surprised, why didn't we stop them there in Chernobyl? But we needed to learn about our enemy. So that's what we did."

This close to the Belarus border, the Ukrainians could not afford to open fire and risk starting another conflict. Their priority was to first understand Russia's battle plan, before sending their troops into the line of fire.

Putin's master plan

What Vladyslav saw were the first vehicles of what would become the convoy.

Contrary to many media reports at the time, the 35 mile-long (56 km) column was in fact 10 separate Russian tactical battalion units, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The Russian army also attacked Ukraine in the east and south, but the mission for these 10 units was specific - enter Ukraine from Belarus, overthrow Ukraine's capital city and remove the government. In military terms: a decapitation attack.

One Russian document, seen by the BBC, shows a timetable for the plan. After the first battalion crossed into Ukraine at 04:00 am on 24 February, their orders were to advance straight to Kyiv arriving by 14:55.

Several of the battalions were to advance to Hostomel, just north of Kyiv, to back up the troops who'd been airlifted in to secure the airport.

The rest were to head straight into the centre of Kyiv.

The assault heavily relied on two elements - secrecy and speed.

According to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) (a UK-based security think tank) by keeping plans about an attack on the capital under wraps, Russian soldiers could outnumber the Ukrainian forces by 12 to one in the north of Kyiv.

However, Putin's secrecy came at a cost. So successful was his deception, even most of his commanders did not receive their orders until 24 hours before the invasion.

On a tactical level, this left them vulnerable. They lacked food, fuel and maps. They were without proper communication tools. They had insufficient ammunition. They were even ill-prepared for the winter weather.

Kitted out with the wrong tyres and surrounded by snow, the Russians drove straight into a mud bath. Civilians close to Ivankiv describe Russian soldiers telling Ukrainian farmers to help pull their tanks out of the sludge.

Based on witness testimony and intelligence from the Ukrainian military, we were able to map the ground the convoy covered in the time between the outbreak of war and the end of March. By avoiding travelling across fields, vehicles ended up on most of the main roads north of Kyiv.

By the time the column had grown as long as 35 miles (56 km) it included up to 1,000 tanks, 2,400 mechanised infantry vehicles and 10,000 personnel, as well as dozens of supply trucks carrying food, fuel, oil and ammunition.

Stalled north of Kyiv and running out of food and fuel, the Russians had also underestimated their adversary.

A united resistance

For three days Volodymyr Scherbynyn and his fellow volunteers, the majority of them pensioners, had been preparing for the arrival of the convoy in their hometown of Bucha.

Armed with one machine gun between the 12 of them, they took down all the road signs, built checkpoints, and prepared hundreds of petrol bombs.

Until finally, on Sunday morning the Russian tanks rolled into town.

For nearly 30 minutes, Volodymyr and his grassroots unit battered the tanks with what little they had.

"We set two of the vehicles on fire and slowed down the whole convoy," says Volodymyr.

But then came the retaliation.

"When they saw us throwing bottles they opened fire," says 30-year-old Maksym Shkoropar. "I was a barman. I didn't have any military training."

By the end of that half hour, every one of Volodymyr's party had been shot and evacuated to hospital.

But even from the sick bay, Volodymyr kept on fighting - receiving and cross-checking sightings of the convoy from civilians all over the Kyiv region and calling them in to the Ukrainian authorities.

On the other end of the line was 23-year-old local deputy governor for Irpin, Roman Pohorily.

He tells the BBC he didn't sleep for three days.

"My colleague and I were manning the hotline at the council office, taking calls about the column, as well as saboteurs - people who were painting marks on the ground for the convoy to follow."

A councillor by day, Roman is also an open source intelligence expert by night. Co-founder of the highly regarded website DeepState, he pools together social media and intelligence reports. He geolocates them, then reposts them on his website.

"On their way to Kyiv, the Russians were posting videos on social media. We reposted the videos to expose their movements. They were just showing off, but in doing so, they got busted."

Most important during the assault on Kyiv, says Roman, was the sense of a united Ukraine.

Everyone was doing something. I admit it was very hectic in those first few days. But there were veterans helping civilians. Everyone wanted to defend their city."

In towns and villages all across the region, hundreds of attacks took place against the convoy, from civilians armed with homemade weapons to mechanised infantry and artillery.

Outdated tactics

In stark contrast to the Ukrainians, the Russian forces repeatedly exposed their inability to make dynamic decisions on the ground.

"The Russians were all carrying large metal boxes marked 'secret'," says Vladyslav from the 80th Brigade. "We seized one during an ambush. We found their maps marked with their entire route. After that we knew their whole strategy."

Their navigation tools were also woefully out of date. In the year since the invasion, the BBC has continued to find maps left behind by Russian troops that date back to the 1960s and 70s. Whole towns exist now that were not on the maps that they were using to navigate. We also found semaphore flags, a vastly outdated way to communicate between units.

One successful tactic by the Ukrainian resistance was to blow up bridges and dams ahead of the convoy, thus forcing the Russians to reroute. Reliant on old maps and with limited communications back to their high command, the Russian units frequently became paralysed by indecision.

Several satellite images show the Russian vehicles literally driving round and around in circles.

Occupation

Under pressure from Ukrainian air strikes and artillery, the Russian convoy was finally brought to a standstill just outside of Kyiv's city boundary. For thousands of civilians living close to the stalled troops, the experience was horrendous.

"They robbed everything from everywhere. They emptied the shops," says Vladyslav. "They also used civilians as human shields."

What happened in many villages and towns to the north and west of Kyiv is still being investigated by numerous authorities, including the International Criminal Court.

After four long weeks the Russians finally started to withdraw.

Two of the largest remaining battalions were defeated close to Hostomel airport. Another 370 tented army trucks, seemingly abandoned in Zdvizhivka village, were destroyed by artillery.

The Ukrainian military kept on pushing them back until 19 March, after which the Russians began to retreat from Kyiv Oblast.

Russia is continuing to push into the eastern industrial heartland of Donbas, and strike in the south, in the direction of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Despite the speculation of a renewed attack on Kyiv, the majority of experts agree it would be unlikely as we have not seen a large-scale deployment of Russian troops to the Belarus border.

But still watching via reconnaissance drones close to the border, are the Ukrainian recruits.

"I'll always remember that night in Chernobyl," says Vladyslav. "When I went out to smoke with my friend. But by the time I'd finished my cigarette the war had started.

"My friend and I have this dream, that we will go on shift, just like we did that day, and as we smoke another cigarette we will hear that the war has ended. And that we won."

How Russia'''s 35-mile armoured convoy ended in failure - BBC News

Originally Posted by russellsimpson

Does anybody have any idea of what is contained in this new Chinese proposal. I thought Harry would be all over that.

Who cares?

China abstained Thursday when the U.N. General Assembly approved a nonbinding resolution that calls for Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces.

Originally Posted by Iceman123

If we listen to Western propaganda it is possible at first blush to deduce Ukraine is winning.

However the facts state otherwise, the longer this continues it plays into Russia’s hands.

For those of us that remember Vietnam, we were winning and it was deemed impossible for any other result.

Ditto for Afghanistan. How many times can the people be fooled?

The problem with Vietnam and to a lesser degree Afghanistan and Iraq there was little thought given to what the end game would look like. Anyone who thought we were winning in vietnam were victims of the army controlled press. That was never the reality on the ground. Iraq was a disaster caused by the U.S. which went there on a false premise and had not thought past getting rid of Saddams regime and how to form a post Saddam Iraq. Afghanistan again was thinking it was possible to get rid of ISIS and the Taliban by the infidel in an Islamic country. The fact that people believe in that islamic shite should be enough to realise they are a lost cause.
The invasion of Ukraine has a much clearer and simple end point. The Russians pushed back to their own border and making sure the cost will make it difficult to intefere in other countries for some time, be it Georgia, Moldova, anywhere else.
The problem with what people read is that "western media" has dissenting views on the state of the war. If russia was actually winning they wouldnt need to have a government stranglehold on all forms of media and opposition, the facts that you blatantly ignore, whereas being a citizen of a democracy rather than a murderous dictatorship you are free to repost anything pro russian that suits your narrative whether true or false, yet the oppostion in Russia would be gaoled for posting a pro ukrainian narative regardless of it being factual.
It really takes little brainpower to work out what is more likely closer to the truth. The western press where freedom of thought and governments statistics are studied and questioned as to their voracity or the Russian press where any talk of Russian military failure will attract a gaol sentence.
Since the invasion Russia has introduced 100 new laws to make any form of dissent of the war illegal. That alone should tell you where the truth lies or at least to tread wearily. I seem to remember when questioned on a possible invasion the Russians denied it as western propaganda. In other words they blatantly lied. It amazes me how some, thankfully few outside of Russia, are blind to the truth. The Russians are not winning the war and neither are the Ukrainians The fact that Russia has been pushed back to this stalemate position proves they were losing but are now holding, albeit with tremendous losses.
The fact is what portion of a 1.4 Trillion GDP is the war costing the Russians and what portion of a 40 trillion plus GDP is it costing the west?

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

If russia was actually winning they wouldnt need to have a government stranglehold on all forms of media and opposition, the facts that you blatantly ignore, whereas being a citizen of a democracy rather than a murderous dictatorship you are free to repost anything pro russian that suits your narrative whether true or false, yet the oppostion in Russia would be gaoled for posting a pro ukrainian narative regardless of it being factual.
It really takes little brainpower to work out what is more likely closer to the truth. The western press where freedom of thought and governments statistics are studied and questioned as to their voracity or the Russian press where any talk of Russian military failure will attract a gaol sentence.

I'd love to hear icebucket try and justify this, but of course he can't.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

The fact is what portion of a 1.4 Trillion GDP is the war costing the Russians and what portion of a 40 trillion plus GDP is it costing the west?

This war is bankrupting the ruzzians. They are running out of the cash reserves they had set aside.

The Russia-Ukraine war must come full circle with Crimea as the central objective, according to Ukrainian interlocutors who recently met with an American delegation.

"I think that Ukraine's interest in Crimea is publicly stated, which talks less about the fact that you've had immigration from Russia to Crimea to up the percentage of Russian population than [how] some Ukrainians and Tartars who were native to Crimea have been driven out," American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) President Herman Pirchner Jr. told Newsweek.

"I think that there's a feeling...that Crimea is something that could be taken by Ukrainian forces," he added.

Pirchner co-led an eight-member delegation, alongside former Under-Secretary of State William Schneider Jr., to the capital of Kyiv and port city of Odesa, among other destinations, on a trip that took place from January 20 to 29.

The trip was organized directly with Ukrainian counterparts and minus the involvement of the U.S. State Department.

The Americans participated in five or more meetings daily with senior Ukrainian government figures in the fields of defense, intelligence, energy and infrastructure, as well as politicians, ambassadors, embassy representatives, citizens and victims of Russian aggression.

Their Ukrainian counterparts told the AFPC that following Russia's seizure of Crimea in 2014, the view of most Ukrainians is that the current war will end with its restoration to Ukrainian sovereignty.

The topic of immediate concern in Kyiv is the treatment of Crimea's Ukrainian population under Russian control, the AFPC noted, especially the fate of members of the Indigenous population of Crimean Tatars who have been continuously oppressed in the past.

"Russia is perceived by Tatar representatives in exile as wanting to eliminate the Crimean Tatars altogether in a process which began with the February 2014 annexation of Crimea," according to the AFPC's trip report. "We were told that just during the period of our visit, there had been Russian police raids on hundreds of Tatar homes in Crimea."

It has reportedly led to countless young Tatars fleeing Crimea to places like Georgia and even Ireland.

Ukrainian representatives also argued that the post-Soviet agreement between Moscow and Kyiv to accommodate the Russian Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol was "a mistake" that would not be part of Crimea should Ukrainian forces succeed.

Pirchner has personally visited post-Soviet countries over 70 times, with his first trip to Ukraine in 1990. He has not visited Russia in numerous years.

He said this most recent trip was planned about two months in advance and was among the most memorable due to the ongoing conflict. He and other Americans were unable to visit battlefield sites in eastern Ukraine.
The trip itself was about 17 hours including travel, which required flying into Munich prior to heading to Warsaw. From there, they took a train to Kyiv.

Meetings were routinely interrupted by air raids, which was quite different to Pirchner's visit in 2021 to cities like Mariupol and areas not occupied by Russian forces.

He met with Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's national security and defense council, who he had met previously and described as a "a very sober and cautious guy" who is "highly credible."

"Talking to Ukrainian officials, they generally feel that if they were able to stop the offensive then they had an excellent chance with their own counteroffensive to gain back significant amounts of territory," said Pirchner, adding that it would cause a destabilizing effect in Russia.

Ukraine 'Would Fall' Without American Aid

Pirchner said appreciation for American financial and security aid was palpable through his encounters with citizens and dignitaries alike.

"When I was there a couple years ago, there was a sense that Russia was coming and everybody would tell you, 'We know they're gonna come, a lot of us are gonna die— we're not gonna surrender children and grandchildren to Moscow rule,'" he said. "It was that type of steely determination before the current invasion."

"It's absolutely more intense now. Even if you talk to the babushkas and people in civil society, they think about what's happening to the kids being taken from orphanages into Russia as well as war crimes. The whole society is completely of the mindset that they're not gonna give in," he added.

Yet while Ukrainian interlocutors expressed appreciation for U.S. assistance in weapons and money, urgent appeals for more remain. Ukrainians told AFPC delegates that without U.S. aid, Ukraine "would definitely fall" and that "only weapons matter, money is in second place."

"I think they worry about supplies and armaments, but there is confidence that if they get what they need they will be successful," Pirchner said. "I haven't talked to anybody that didn't think the offensive would be coming sometime this spring, after the mud season."

The eight-member delegation also spent time in Bucha, which gained worldwide attention in the war's infancy due to the deaths of over 450 Ukrainian adults and children, leading to allegations of war crimes by international leaders.

"I think you can't go there without being moved, especially when you know it's not just one city, but this has been repeated in other small villages throughout Ukraine," Pirchner said. "I remember talking to a fighter later in the trip and he talked about keeping a position, even though there was reason not to be there. He said, 'If we pulled out, we knew what would happen to the people in the village if the Russians came.'"

Crimea May Become Ukraine's Central Focus in Second Year of Putin's War

As war rages on, Ukraine begins costly reconstruction while fighting corruption

One year after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the scars of war are staggering — entire neighborhoods destroyed and hundreds of thousands of homes burned out. With the support of the Pulitzer Center, Nick Schifrin and videographer Eric O’Connor report on the challenges of reconstructing a country, and tackling historic corruption, as it still fights a war.



VIDEO As war rages on, Ukraine begins costly reconstruction while fighting corruption | PBS News Weekend

Russian military aircraft blown up near Minsk: Belarusian partisans



(Reuters) -Belarusian anti-government activists have claimed responsibility for what they said was a drone attack on a Russian A-50 surveillance aircraft at an airfield near the Belarus capital of Minsk on Sunday.


"Those were drones. The participants of the operation are Belarusian," Aliaksandr Azarov, leader of Belarusian anti-government organization BYPOL, was quoted as saying on the organisation's Telegram messaging app and on the Poland-based Belsat news channel.


"They are now safe, outside the country."


Reuters was not able to independently verify the report of the attack. There was no official confirmation from Russia or Belarus and there was no immediate response from their defence ministries to requests for comment.


Belsat is a Polish broadcaster focused on Belarusian news that Minsk has branded extremist. BYPOL, which includes former law enforcement officers who support opposition politicians, has been branded a terrorist organization.


Franak Viacorka, an adviser to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said in a post on Twitter it was the most successful act of sabotage since the beginning of 2022.


Front and central parts of the aircraft as well as the radar antenna were damaged as a result of two explosions in the attack at the Machulishchy air base near Minsk, BYPOL reported.


The Beriev A-50 aircraft, which has the NATO reporting name of Mainstay, is a Russian airborne early warning aircraft, with airborne command and control capabilities, and the ability to track up to 60 targets at a time.


Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago, there have been several acts of sabotage in Belarus and in Russian regions bordering Ukraine, especially on the railway system.


President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus has not taken a direct part in Russia's war on Ukraine, but he allowed its forces access to use territory as a staging post at the beginning of the invasion a year ago.


Russia and Belarus have set up a joint military unit in Belarus and have held numerous exercises. A number of Russian warplanes and airborne early warning and control aircraft have been deployed to Belarus.


"I am proud of all Belarusians who continue to resist the Russian hybrid occupation of Belarus & fight for the freedom of Ukraine," Tsikhanouskaya wrote on Twitter.


The Belarusian human rights group Vyasna said on Monday that a woman was detained in Machulishchy but the reason and her whereabouts were not known.


There was no information on whether the detention was related to the alleged sabotage of the aircraft.


Detentions are common in Belarus, for offences as small as comments on social media, especially after Lukashenko crushed the mass-pro democracy protests in 2020 and jailed all leading opposition figures or forced them to flee abroad.

Russian military aircraft blown up near Minsk: Belarusian partisans

Detentions are common in Belarus, for offences as small as comments on social media, especially after Lukashenko crushed the mass-pro democracy protests in 2020 and jailed all leading opposition figures or forced them to flee abroad.

I wonder if he wears high heels too?

Putin Warned of More Mystery Attacks After Russian Plane Explosion

Belarusian saboteurs successfully attacked a Russian A-50 military surveillance aircraft in an airfield near Minsk in recent hours, Belarusian opposition sources confirmed to The Daily Beast.


“It’s a big victory. That airplane was very expensive, very rare, and perhaps the most important aircraft of the Russian fleet,” Franak Viacorka, the chief political adviser to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, told The Daily Beast. “It’s a victory of Belarusian partisans, for Belarusian underground resistance, and it’s the most successful act of sabotage perhaps in Belarusian history.”


The opposition has intelligence that suggests that the aircraft, which is one of just a smattering in Russia’s lineup, is no longer working, citing a recent Russian operation in which the A-50 was unusually absent.


“We have signs that this aircraft is not repairable anymore and it will not fly anymore,” Viacorka said, a statement that has not been independently verified by The Daily Beast. “Last night when another attack of Iranian drones launched by Russians was made, this… spy plane was not in the air, so it means it was not usable.”


Valery Kavaleuski, a foreign affairs representative for Belarus’ opposition, confirmed to The Daily Beast that the attack was carried out by drones.


Alexandr Azarov, the leader of the antigovernment group BYPOL, which works with Tsikhanouskaya’s office, said on Telegram that Belarusians were behind the attack, noting the radar and the front and central parts of the aircraft were damaged.

Ever since Russian troops first entered Belarus to use its territory as a staging ground for launching Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, Belarusian saboteurs have been working to disrupt the war effort. Last year, Belarusian saboteurs attacked the rail lines to interrupt Russian movement and supply efforts through the country.


The attack on the Russian aircraft coincides with a warning from Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko that he is willing to let Putin keep using Belarusian territory as a launchpad for the war in Ukraine, which has just entered its second year. And although Lukashenko has, at times, resisted Putin and tried to maintain independence from him, Lukashenko watchers have begun warning in recent days that Putin is likely choking him off, noting that any ability he previously had to make decisions independently appears to have vanished.


But the takedown is intended to send a stark message to Russia and Belarus that they are in an extremely weak position, even a full year after trying and failing to capture Kyiv, Viacorka told The Daily Beast. The hope is that operations like this might force Russia and Belarus to question whether it’s worth it to use Belarus as a staging ground for the war.


“This is also a message to Russians that they are not safe in Belarus anymore. They cannot just use Belarusian territory without any consequences,” Viacorka told The Daily Beast.


The fact that Russian authorities have declined to comment on the incident and that Belarusian authorities haven’t even acknowledged the attack shows they are likely ashamed of the incident.


“We see that Lukashenko is in a panic,” Viacorka said. “They’re embarrassed because it shows how fragile, how naked, is the whole system of defense.”


Tsikhanouskaya applauded the attack in a statement.


“I am proud of all Belarusians who continue to resist the Russian hybrid occupation of Belarus & fight for the freedom of Ukraine,” she said. “Your brave actions show the world that Belarus stands against imperial aggression.”


Russia is already looking for those involved in the attack, BYPOL said in a social media post, warning Belarusians to be careful with their social media and digital activity to avoid being traced. Those involved are in a “safe place” right now, though, Viacorka told The Daily Beast.


The attack should also serve as a warning that this kind of takedown will not be the last, Belarus’ opposition told The Daily Beast. Russia and Belarus can expect similar acts of disruption and sabotage in the future, Viacorka said.


“We hope that this is not the last attack, that there are many other plans of our partisans,” Viacorka told The Daily Beast. “We will be looking forward.”


The act of sabotage is just one part of the opposition’s so-called “Victory Plan,” or “Pieramoha” plan, which is aimed at conducting civil resistance throughout Belarus against Lukashenko’s regime.


The opposition in exile has long urged saboteurs to be ready to act when the time is right. But this attack should not be a signal that armed resistance is in the cards yet, Viacorka cautioned.


“We still stick with the idea of nonviolent resistance. And destroying Russian equipment is not violent. Our partisans don’t harm people. They destroy Russian equipment. They stop Russian trains, they hack Russian… institutions to delay and disrupt the war machine,” Viacorka told The Daily Beast. “The underground resistance, through such sabotage, is the only and most effective way at this point.”


The attack is a sign that Belarusians’ efforts to help Ukraine thwart Russia’s war continue and extend to many different realms, from hacking to information-sharing to incidents like this, Kavaleuski told The Daily Beast. “Belarusians are trying to help Ukrainian in all possible ways.”

Lukashenko and Putin should not only expect attacks against their military entities, but espionage and turmoil to come from within, too, the opposition said Monday.


Belarus’ opposition is working to recruit spies from within the Belarusian military to help conduct sabotage against the joint military groupings of Russian and Belarusian armed forces, which have been training together for combat readiness in Belarus in recent months.


The opposition is working “to find our allies within the Belarusian army who will sabotage from inside, who will show disobedience [to] Kremlin orders and Lukashenko’s administration,” Viacorka said.


“We can disrupt their presence and create much discomfort for them definitely,” Viacorka added, noting some efforts to recruit spies are already underway. “They’re already on it.”


The attack is also meant to send off alarm bells that for Belarusians, Russia’s use of Belarusian territory signals that Lukashenko has become a puppet and that this is turning into a Russian occupation.


“This is to send a signal that Belarus is essentially under partial occupation by Russia and we need to deoccupy Belarus,” Kavaleuski told The Daily Beast. “It is important to understand that Belarusians are not happy about the presence of Russian military in our land, and they will have to go.”


“This is a reminder for the world that Belarus and Ukraine’s fates are interconnected,” Viacorka said.

Putin Warned of More Mystery Attacks After Russian Plane Explosion

The Bloody Battle For Bakhmut Offers A Possible Preview Of How Year Two Of The Ukraine War Will Go

The first sign that Bakhmut would become a disaster for the Russians came nine months ago and 30 miles north of the town in eastern Ukraine.

On May 11, 2022, portions of a Russian motorized rifle brigade — hundreds of vehicles and thousands of troops — tried to ford the Siverskyi Donetsk River in order to extend Russia’s gains in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Ukrainian drones and spotters caught the brigade mid-crossing. The Ukrainians fired volley after volley of heavy artillery into Russian forces packed tread to tread, shoulder to shoulder on the exposed river banks.

By the time the smoke cleared, scores of Russian tanks and fighting vehicles lay smashed among potentially hundreds of dead Russians. “The attempted river crossing showed a stunning lack of tactical sense,” according to The Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C.

The turkey shoot set the stage for Russia’s assault on Bakhmut. Around the same time as the river massacre, tens of thousands of poorly trained, ambivalently led Russians repeatedly charged toward well-prepared Ukrainian positions in and around Bakhmut, a town with a pre-war population of 70,000 that lies 10 miles southwest of Russian-occupied Severodonetsk, one of Donbas’ bigger cities.

Russian losses were so steep — estimates at the time ranged as high as 50,000 killed and wounded — that to replenish its forces, the Kremlin organized an emergency draft, targeting mostly unfit, middle-aged men from regions far outside Moscow. The Kremlin would arm these men with surplus Cold War weaponry and shove them into battle after just a few days of training.

The Russian assault on Bakhmut arguably was the first, and defining, battle of the secondphase of the war. The surprise of Russia’s unprovoked attack on February 24, 2022, had worn off. The starving, battered Russian brigades that had tried and failed to surround Kyiv were retreating as increasingly experienced Ukrainian brigades, armed with new Western-made weapons, chased after them.

What was supposed to be a Russian blitz across Ukraine was turning into a bloody slog. A quick war was becoming a war of attrition, where the side that does the most killing stands the greater chance of winning.

Nowhere is this awful calculus more apparent than in Bakhmut. It was obvious as early as last summer, when the scale of Russian losses around the town became evident. It’s even more obvious now, nine months later, as the battle for Bakhmut grinds on, Russian president Vladimir Putin vows to keep fighting, and Ukraine, inspired by the leadership of its own president, the former comic actor Volodymyr Zelensky, shows no sign of backing down.

Why Bakhmut?

Some cities and towns have obvious military value. They might command the high ground or lie astride strategic roads, rail lines or a navigable river. They might be the home of a tank factory or some other vital industry.

Bakhmut doesn’t meet any of these criteria. The closest thing it has to a strategic quality is its proximity to several major roads connecting the free Ukrainian cities in western Donbas. But Bakhmut is no more important as a transportation node than, say, any random town to its northwest.

Why the Russians targeted Bakhmut might have less to do with militarystrategy than politicalstrategy. For its first few months, the Bakhmut operation was the main task of The Wagner Group, a shadowy mercenary company allegedly financed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former sausage vendor and a Putin favorite.

The Wagner Group works with the Russian military, but it’s not partof the Russian military. In many ways, it’s the army’s biggest rival for resources in Moscow.

Analysts have concluded that the Wagner assaults on Bakhmut were the company’s way of creating a narrative that it was the only Russian force still capable of beating the Ukrainians.

The idea, apparently, was for Wagner to parlay its battlefield reputation into political influence in Moscow. Prigozhin “continues to accrue power and is setting up a military structure parallel to the Russian armed forces,” ISW explained.

But as a political gambit, Bakhmut was a bust.

Human Waves

To sustain its assault on Bakhmut, Wagner hired thousands of Russian veterans, even recruiting one daredevil pilot who got drummed out of the Russian air force in 2012 for stealing and crashing a Sukhoi Su-27 fighter.

The company’s hiring spree gave it a small advantage over the battered Russian army, at least for a little while. The same advantage never extended to its operations against the Ukrainianarmy. To defend Bakhmut, the Ukrainian general command rotated in some of its best brigades — including, late last year, the 93rd Mechanized Brigade.

The 93rd isn’t the flashiest of Ukraine’s dozens of front-line brigades, but it’s one of the most brutally effective. The brigade, with its five tank and infantry battalions — altogether, several thousand troops and a hundred or more armored vehicles, including upgraded T-64 tanks — had endured some of the bloodiest battles of the wider war.

The 93rd and other Ukrainian brigades, supported by the big guns of the powerful 40th Artillery Brigade, fought what U.S. Army General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described as “a very, very successful mobile defense.”

Instead of stubbornly holding every trench, bunker or basement until they’re overrun, the Ukrainians pull back when they’re in danger of defeat. They rest and rearm, then counterattack once the Russians overextend themselves.

This flexibility preserves Ukraine’s fighting force, but it requires patience and teamwork. Some days, it might feel like the Ukrainians are losing around Bakhmut, but only because they’ve decided to trade space for time.

Wait a few days, and the Ukrainians not only tend to regain any ground they recently lost, they might even start marching forward. As long as senior commanders understand that one day’s retreatis the price the front-line brigades pay for the next day’s advance, the mobile defense is a long-term winner against a short-sighted foe.

Ukrainian commanders clearly hold the long view. The contrast with Russian commanders around Bakhmut couldn’t be more stark. Wagner officers repeatedly hurled their best troops against Ukrainian positions.

Losses were steep. By last fall, Wagner was badly in need of fresh forces. The Russian army had just rounded up 300,000 men in a desperate bid to make good its ownlosses. Equally desperate for warm bodies, Wagner tapped a surprising source: Russia’s prisons.

Company representatives offered convicts pardons in exchange for a few months of front-line service. It was an enticing offer at first. Wagner quickly mobilized 40,000 ex-prisoners to bolster its 10,000 professional fighters around Bakhmut.

Rushed to the front with virtually no preparation, these former convicts were, in essence, cannon fodder. They allowed Wagner to maintain the pace of its attacks on Ukrainian defenses, but they didn’t stand much chance of breaking through and ending the battle on Russia’s terms. “Their tactic is to send people to die,” Oleksandr Pohrebyskyy, a sergeant in the Ukrainian 46th Air Mobile Brigade, told Ukrainian Pravda.

Wagner’s forces managed to advance into Bakhmut’s outskirts, but only briefly. Urban combat requires “highly trained infantry with excellent junior-level leadership,” the U.K. Defense Ministry said.
Ukraine’s brigades have highly trained infantry, thanks in part to NATO instructors. They have good junior leaders, too, owing to a military culture that distributes responsibility to younger officers and sergeants rather than solely assigning it to aging colonels and generals, as is the Russian custom.

By now, even Ukraine’s territorial troops — the equivalent of U.S. Army National Guardsmen — are battle-hardened and effective. One of the best territorial brigades, the 241st, defended Bakhmut during a critical stage of the long battle late last year.

As the Bakhmut campaign ground into its seventh month in December, the Ukrainians had the advantage. “This type of combat is unlikely to favor poorly trained Wagner fighters,” the U.K. Defense Ministry said.

On December 21, Zelensky visited the Bakhmut front lines. “The Russian military and mercenaries have been attacking Bakhmut nonstop since May,” he said. “They have been attacking it day and night, but Bakhmut stands.”

At least 4,000 Wagner fighters died around Bakhmut in 2022, according to The Guardian. By early 2023, word had spread to Russia’s prisons. Volunteers were fewer and fewer until, on February 9, Prigozhin announced Wagner would no longer recruit convicts. In truth, the convictshad cut him off.

The Year Ahead

Deprived of its main source of fresh manpower, Wagner could no longer sustain the assault on Bakhmut. Gradually, over a period of several weeks early this year, regular Russian troops, including well-trained paratroopers, replaced the mercenaries fighting there.

The gradual swap “retained the initiative for Russian operations around the city,” ISW said. In the closest thing to a breakthrough that the Kremlin’s forces had achieved around Bakhmut in eight months of relentless and costly fighting, Russian troops on January 12 captured Soledar, a small settlement that sits atop labyrinthine salt mines just north of Bakhmut.

The capitulation of Soledar didn’t mean Bakhmut was in imminent danger of falling, too. “The capture of the center and most of Soledar by Wagner units is an undoubted tactical success,” wrote Igor Girkin, a former Russian army officer who played a key role in Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. “However, the enemy’s front was not broken through. … The enemy command definitely controls the situation.”

That was still true weeks later. ISW “does not forecast the imminent fall of Bakhmut to Russian forces,” the think tank wrote.

If the Russians doend up capturing Bakhmut, it could be because the Ukrainian general staff finally decided to trade the town for time. “The Ukrainian command may choose to withdraw rather than risk unacceptable losses,” ISW said.

Bakhmut itself was never worth all that much to Kyiv, especially as civilians have all but abandoned it. Its main value has been as an opportunity — an opportunity to kill Russians.

The Ukrainians have seized that chance, and the Russians obliged, just like they did at the Siverskyi Donetsk River last May. Week after week, month after month, the Russians have stormed Bakhmut with masses of under-trained troops. The Ukrainians have killed them by the hundreds.

At best during the long campaign, Wagner troops advanced 300 feet per day, Prigozhin estimated. In nine months, they may have marched 15 miles closer to Bakhmut. Each mile, however, is paved with several hundred dead Russians.

Denis Pushilin, the head of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Donbas, claimed that a Russian victory in Bakhmut would clear a path to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, 25 miles northwest of Bakhmut.

Maybe. Or maybe the Ukrainians pull back from Bakhmut so they can reorganize and launch a counterattack that recaptures the town. “The situation can change in half a day,” said Pohrebyskyy, the Ukrainian sergeant.

Pushilin’s expectations for a theoretical Bakhmut breakthrough “further demonstrate that Russians are continuing to face challenges in accurately assessing the time and space relationship” when it comes to Russian military capabilities, ISW said.

A year ago, the Kremlin hoped to capture Kyiv and topple the Ukrainian government in a few days. Three hundred and sixty-five days later, after losing as many as 270,000 killed and wounded in Ukraine, the Kremlin struggles to capture one lifeless, non-strategic town. But it keeps trying.

Bakhmut is a symbol of the bloody struggle — and a possible harbinger of the next year of hard fighting.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...607037c5d8b98d

List of shame here, sadly Indian Sub continent RSA Russia and China represent half of so called humanity

Originally Posted by Latinodancer

It seems the Ukrainians are learning the effectiveness of guerilla warfare.

Not sure where you are getting that. This is a full scale conventional war not seen since WW2. It has all the trappings of one and is being fought as such. Very little guerilla warfare aside from behind the lines by partisans and SOF.

Drones Attack Russia From All Sides

Chaos erupted in Russia overnight as drones swarmed multiple regions, sparking an explosion at an oil depot and the deployment of fighter jets near St. Petersburg, according to local reports.


One strike at around 2 a.m. in the Krasnodar region was less than 100 feet from a Russian Defense Ministry barracks, the independent Agentstvo News reports. Two drones filled with explosives landed at a nearby Rosneft oil depot in Tuapse, sparking a blaze that was “quickly extinguished,” according to the Russian outlet Baza.


Hours later, St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport came to a standstill as authorities shut down the surrounding airspace, reportedly in response to an “unidentified flying object” spotted in the area.


Local authorities confirmed to RIA Novosti that incoming and outgoing flights were temporarily halted, though they gave no reason for the move. Meanwhile, Baza reported, fighter jets were deployed to take down the “object.”


A short while later, however, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed the whole thing had simply been a training exercise, and the airspace was reopened.


Drones were also reported overnight in the Bryansk and Belgorod regions, as well as the Republic of Adygea. Another drone landed in the Moscow region, near a Gazprom gas compressor station on Tuesday. Local reports noted that the drone could have made it to the Kremlin in less than an hour if it had not crashed.


“The FSB and other competent authorities are dealing with the situation, there is no threat to the safety of residents,” Moscow Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov said in a statement.


The strikes were part of what local media described as a “mass drone attack” that appears to have intensified in the last 24 hours.


On Monday morning, residents of an apartment building in the Belgorod region, near the border with Ukraine, were forced to evacuate in the middle of the night after one of four drones crashed into the building, according to Baza. Another drone landed on the roof of a supermarket and exploded, scorching the premises.


“People were moved to a safe place. Everyone was offered the chance to stay in a hotel while the special services do their work,” Belgorod Mayor Valentin Demidov announced on Telegram.


While no injuries were reported, pro-war Russian military bloggers fumed at the string of drone strikes.


“The enemy undertook a daring attack today, drones in Belgorod, Tuapse, Adygea, and now in St. Petersburg, and because of this, the airspace in the city and the region is closed,” read one Telegram post shared by the Wagner-connected Grey Zone.


Another popular pro-Kremlin channel said the drone attack should be viewed as “preparation for a spring offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when the purpose of such strikes will be to destabilize the home front and spread mass panic among Russians.”

Drones Attack Russia From All Sides

Originally Posted by misskit

A short while later, however, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed the whole thing had simply been a training exercise, and the airspace was reopened

Too wierd. Russia attacking itself.

KURAKHOVE, Ukraine — Before driving into battle in their mud-spattered war machine, a T-64 tank, the three-man Ukrainian crew performs a ritual.

The commander, Pvt. Dmytro Hrebenok, recites the Lord’s Prayer. Then, the men walk around the tank, patting its chunky green armor.

“We say, ‘Please, don’t let us down in battle,’” said Sgt. Artyom Knignitsky, the mechanic. “‘Bring us in and bring us out.’”

Their respect for their tank is understandable. Perhaps no weapon symbolizes the ferocious violence of war more than the main battle tank. Tanks have loomed over the conflict in Ukraine in recent months — militarily and diplomatically — as both sides prepared for offensives. Russia pulled reserves of tanks from Cold War-era storage, and Ukraine prodded Western governments to supply American Abrams and German Leopard 2 tanks.

The sophisticated Western tanks are expected on the battlefield in the next several months. The new Russian armor turned up earlier — and in its first wide-scale deployment was decimated.

A three-week battle on a plain near the coal-mining town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine produced what Ukrainian officials say was the biggest tank battle of the war so far, and a stinging setback for the Russians.

In the extended battle, both sides sent tanks into the fray, rumbling over dirt roads and maneuvering around tree lines, with the Russians thrusting forward in columns and the Ukrainians maneuvering defensively, firing from a distance or from hiding places as Russian columns came into their sights.

When it was over, not only had Russia failed to capture Vuhledar, but it also had made the same mistake that cost Moscow hundreds of tanks earlier in the war: advancing columns into ambushes.

Blown up on mines, hit with artillery or obliterated by anti-tank missiles, the charred hulks of Russian armored vehicles now litter farm fields all about Vuhledar, according to Ukrainian military drone footage. Ukraine’s military said Russia had lost at least 130 tanks and armored personnel carriers in the battle. That figure could not be independently verified. Ukraine does not disclose how many weapons it loses.

“We studied the roads they used, then hid and waited” to shoot in ambushes, Sergeant Knignitsky said.

Lack of expertise also bedeviled the Russians. Many of their most elite units had been left in shambles from earlier fighting. Their spots were filled with newly conscripted soldiers, unschooled in Ukraine’s tactics for ambushing columns. In one indication that Russia is running short of experienced tank commanders, Ukrainian soldiers said they captured a medic who had been reassigned to operate a tank.

The Russian army has focused on, and even mythologized, tank warfare for decades for its redolence of Russian victories over the Nazis in World War II. Factories in the Ural Mountains have churned out tanks by the thousands. In Vuhledar, by last week Russia had lost so many machines to sustain armored assaults that they had changed tactics and resorted only to infantry attacks, Ukrainian commanders said.

The depth of the Russian defeat was underscored by Russian military bloggers, who have emerged as an influential pro-war voice in the country. Often critical of the military, they have posted angry screeds about the failures of repeated tank assaults, blaming generals for misguided tactics with a storied Russian weapon.

Grey Zone, a Telegram channel affiliated with the Wagner mercenary group, posted on Monday that “relatives of the dead are inclined almost to murder and blood revenge against the general” in charge of the assaults near Vuhledar.

In a detailed interview last week in an abandoned house near the front, Lt. Vladislav Bayak, the deputy commander of Ukraine’s 1st Mechanized Battalion of the 72nd brigade, described how Ukrainian soldiers were able to inflict such heavy losses in what commanders said was the biggest tank battle of the war so far.

Ambushes have been Ukraine’s signature tactic against Russian armored columns since the early days of the war. Working from a bunker in Vuhledar, Lieutenant Bayak spotted the first column of about 15 tanks and armored personnel carriers approaching on a video feed from a drone.

“We were ready,” he said. “We knew something like this would happen.”

They had prepared a kill zone farther along a dirt road that the tanks were rumbling down. The commander needed only to give an order over the radio — “To battle!” — Lieutenant Bayak said.

Anti-tank teams hiding in tree lines along the fields, and armed with American infrared-guided Javelins and Ukrainian laser-guided Stugna-P missiles, powered up their weapons. Farther away, artillery batteries were ready. The dirt road had been left free of mines, while the fields all about were seeded with them, so as to entice the Russians to advance while preventing tanks from turning around once the trap was sprung.

The column of tanks becomes most vulnerable, Lieutenant Bayak said, after the shooting starts and drivers panic and try to turn around — by driving onto the mine-laden shoulder of the road.

Blown-up vehicles then act as impediments, slowing or stalling the column. At that point, Ukrainian artillery opens fire, blowing up more armor and killing soldiers who clamber out of disabled machines. A scene of chaos and explosions ensues, the lieutenant said.

Russian commanders have sent armored columns forward for a lack of other options against Ukraine’s well-fortified positions, however costly the tactic, he said.

Over about three weeks of the tank battle, repeated Russian armored assaults floundered. In one instance, Ukrainian commanders called in a strike by HIMARS guided rockets; they are usually used on stationary targets like ammunition depots or barracks, but also proved effective against a stationary tank column.

The Ukrainians also fired with American M777 and French Caesar howitzers, as well as other Western-provided weaponry such as the Javelins.

The Ukrainian tank crew that prayed before each battle nicknamed their tank The Wanderer, for its wandering movements around the battlefield. Between missions it remained hidden in trees under a camouflage net, beside a road churned into a panorama of mud by passing tanks, five miles or so from the front line.

During the battle for Vuhledar, Private Hrebenok, the commander, was ordered to drive forward from that spot on dangerous missions, three or four times per day.

Private Hrebenok, only 20 years old, had no formal training in tank combat when the war started. But in the frantic first days of the war he was assigned to a tank, and has fought continuously in them since, picking up tricks along the way.

Training still looms as a problem. Ukraine, too, is losing skilled soldiers and replacing them with green recruits. And many Ukrainian tank crewmen are being trained on Western tanks in countries like Germany and Britain.

“All my knowledge I gained in the field,” he said. The Russian tank crews, he said, are in contrast mostly new recruits without the benefit of any combat to season them.

In ambushes, the crew hides the tank within range of a road that Russian tanks or armored personnel carriers might travel down. Then it waits quietly. As they sit and prepare for ambush, they must keep the engine warm, because restarting it would take too long. Idling would be noisy. Instead, they burn a small kerosene heater beside the motor.

Once, while they were waiting, a Russian armored personnel carrier passed through their sight and they fired but narrowly missed, damaging but not destroying the machine.

In the last major engagement, a week ago, the order came in during the gray pre-dawn to prepare an ambush for a column of 16 Russian tanks and armored vehicles advancing toward the Ukrainian lines. The crew said their prayer, patted their tank and drove forward.

“We hid the tank in a tree line and waited for them,” Private Hrebenok said. “It’s always scary but we need to destroy them.”

In this instance, they stopped about three miles short of the ambush site, just out of range of return fire, and shot in coordination with a drone pilot who called in coordinates on a radio for targets they could not see directly.

The Russian column stalled on mines and, Private Hrebenok said, The Wanderer opened fire. The Russian tank crews had little chance once they were in the kill zone, he said.

“We destroyed a lot of Russian equipment,” he said. “What they did wrong was come to Ukraine.”

nytimes.com