Where Do You See The Baht At In 2008?

[chitown]

What are your predictions for the exchange rate? Up to 40 to the US dollar or down to 25 to the US dolarr? Or maybe more of the same.

I understand that this is the going to be lowest year for new home construction in Thailand since the 97 crisis times. They are offering no payments for 2 years on new home construction and nothing down home loans.

So where is the baht headed?

[sabang]

Higher imo. A minority viewpoint.

Not that much higher hopefully, but I think 2008 will end up with the bht a bit higher on a trade weighted index than it is now.

Against the USD, maybe slightly lower YE 2008, but a bit higher yet before it drops. Capital flows.

[chinthee]

Very difficult question. I predict by end of 2008 we will see about 36:1 against the dollar. It will take us two years to get back to 40:1 but it will happen.

Regarding GBP and Euro. Who knows?

[AntRobertson]

For purely selfish reasons I'm hoping it crashes. Heavily.

[Zavier38]

I'd put money on it keeping par with usd but usd's falling another 10-20% against the euro, yen etc.
Not sure about it vs £ sterling - I can see the arse falling out of sterling as Brown carries on spending money he hasn't got.
If USDs carry on falling then it risks losing status as reserve currency and we'll see commodities priced in euros etc. That's gonna hurt Thailand badly as, like in Europe, we've been protected from the worst effects of $100usd/barrel oil by a weak USD. Commodity prices are gonna carry on rising and a 20% hike in their real cost is going to hurt alot of people in LOS.
But then again I probably know jack schitt about it. Be better for me if it went to 55 baht to a £........

[britmaveric]

44-48 baht per $ for the upcoming year.

[Spin]

Where Do You See The Baht At In 2008?

Dollar in freefall, Fed has to continue cutting rates increasing weakness. baht to 29-30 to 1$. Thai economy in tatters. Government sitting fidgeting.
that kind of thing.

[Ban Saray]

Opening thread is on the ball, land and building has almost stopped around Pattaya - ask DD, he's been trying to sell for a while, and he's a contract builder.
The USD looks to take a bit of stick yet, and I do not think it will rise this year to any great extent, my reasons are twofold.
1. There is still a lot of pain to flow through in the housing/credit sector
2. The election year will cause incertainty

[mrsquirrel]

The history of reserve currencies is interesting reading. Change can happen quickly, only took a world war to remove the pound from it's glorious place and bring in the deutchmark and the dollar

[Butterfly]

THB seems to be heading toward 32, even 30, that's what the BoT is planning,

too many farangs moving, they need to stop the inflow,

of course that will bring a huge stagflation, but who cares, this is Thailand

[Frankenstein]

You really think the BoT have the power to affect the rate to that extent Butterfly?

[Marmite the Dog]

The Thai Baht isn't really doing anything much and hasn't for the last few years. It's the dollar that is making all the moves.

I think the dollar will strengthen slightly as we move towards election time and the promise of a Democrat government, and strengthen again after the new guy is sworn in in January next year.

After that, who knows?

[Thormaturge]

Th Thai Baht is to osmall a currency now. With the Dollar, Euro and Yan dominating the world the Baht will be pushed about by fluctuations in those other currencies and the odd speculator.

The Baht will drop against the Dollar for the reasons Marmite states and since nobody in Thailand gives a hoot it will continue its historical decline against other currencies too.

[Butterfly]

You really think the BoT have the power to affect the rate to that extent Butterfly?

No, they don't and that's why they can't stop the appreciation and give up on keeping it low, they can see the inflows coming though, and just stand there watching

[Frankenstein]

Th Thai Baht is to osmall a currency now. With the Dollar, Euro and Yan dominating the world

Yuan? Yen?