Stick or swap?

[rawlins]

There are 3 boxes in front of you. One of the boxes contains a bar of gold.

You choose which one you think has the gold. Then one of the other two boxes is opened that did not contain the gold.

You now have a choice to stick with your original choice or swap to the other unopened box.

What should you do? Stick or swap?

[BaitongBoy]

Choose the one with the gold...

[withnallstoke]

Swap.
Fact.

[rawlins]

^ Good answer....

Have you tried my other game yet?.. The PRISM tag game.

[withnallstoke]

Have you tried my other game yet?.. The PRISM tag game.

Link?

[rawlins]

Cant... My Samsung tab has developed the copy and paste bug that crashes any app in the last day or two....

It is on the first page of the games room still I think....

Hope you win.

[FailSafe]

That's an old one ('The Monty Hall Problem'):

Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Swapping gives you a 2/3rds chance of getting the gold.

[rawlins]

Yeah.... I have been reading Sweet Tooth by Ian McEwen just now and it cropped up in there.... I thought it didn't matter at first if you stuck or swapped but it does.

[BaitongBoy]

Choose the gold...

[alitongkat]

i take the heavy box

[Kurgen]

i take the heavy box

The one I had a shite in?

[pseudolus]

Swap.
Fact.

why? .

[Mid]

^

Post # 7

[Necron99]

Swap.
Fact.

why? .

Being asked a question or offered a choice doesn't negate that you had a 1/3 chance of being correct in your first guess.

[rawlins]

The easy way to picture it is if you start with 100 boxes, only one with the prize in it.
You choose a box.... 98 of the other boxes are then opened that do not contain the prize and you are left with your original choice or the other box....

Be daft not to swap wouldn't it?

[pseudolus]

^

Post # 7

Hmm so basically more proof that statisticians only role in life is to cause trouble.

[Rural Surin]

Gold is only of false value....

Why?

[November Rain]

You been watching "Deal or no deal" Rawlins? Game show for total morons, yet Noel Edmonds continues making out strategy and skill are involved

[pseudolus]

Noel Edmonds continues making out strategy and skill are involved

Stick that name into my "operation yewtree google bingo" game ... see what pops up

[Smug Farang Bore]

Take a gun and take the two boxes

[rawlins]

You been watching "Deal or no deal" Rawlins? Game show for total morons, yet Noel Edmonds continues making out strategy and skill are involved

I don't know how they can make TV out of that.... I have seen it but it just annoys me - why does the crowd applaud a game of pure chance?.... And the participation in the game by the twats holding the boxes... They act like they did good or bad.... They just opened a fukin box.

It is a new low for TV.

[slackula]

The easy way to picture it is if you start with 100 boxes, only one with the prize in it. You choose a box.... 98 of the other boxes are then opened that do not contain the prize and you are left with your original choice or the other box....

You'd need 101 boxes for that to be true. 100-1-98=1, there is no other box.

Being asked a question or offered a choice doesn't negate that you had a 1/3 chance of being correct in your first guess.

You have a 33.333...% chance of being correct in your first guess. In the second the odds of being right increase to 50%, so swapping is the best option.

[rawlins]

^ Wrong on both counts there.

100 boxes.... You choose a box.... 98 are opened leaving your box and one other... Stick or swap?

You have a 1/3 chance at the start.... By sticking you still have a 1/3 chance.... By swapping you have a 2/3 chance....

[pseudolus]

By swapping you have a 2/3 chance....

By choosing to stick with the same box, you have a 2/3 chance.

[blue]

You have a 33.333...% chance of being correct in your first guess. In the second the odds of being right increase to 50%, so swapping is the best option.

you start by picking a box,
your box has about 33 % chance of winning ,
meaning the two remaining boxes together have a 66%
chance of containing the gold.
The key is that not one randon box of the other two , but an empty box -the bad choice, is selectively removed, therefore the chances 66 % remain the same ..

and you get to stick or swop
if you stick you retain the 33 % chance
while if you swop you increase the odds to 66 %.

so 50% never comes into it..