Thread: More rough water ahead for PM

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva appears invincible

Can you believe this crap.
of course he's invincible, he's there because of the junta amart guns, the protestor slayers of bangkok
You can't argue with that

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

could have led to their party being disbanded.

would have led to 'the other' party being disbanded.

Obviously a 'judgement' from Thailands corrupt and discredited 'judiciary' means nothing- in a political case, we know which way the verdict will go merely by knowing which party the Defendants are from.

But looking at the overall scorecard of Thailand as a nation state and democracy, well it really couldn't sink much lower.

Currently, we have a corrupt and discredited-
government, (both leading party and coalition partners)
'judiciary'
military
Constitution
media sector
police force

Fairly impressive when you look at it.

As titular PM over all of this, Abhisit's status on the trash heap of history is assured.

Originally Posted by sabang

Currently, we have a corrupt and discredited-
government, (both leading party and coalition partners)
'judiciary'
military
Constitution
media sector
police force

please enlighten us again how it was different for the last 10 years ?

drinking that Lao khao Kool Aid again sabang ?

Originally Posted by LooseBowels

Can you believe this crap.

Unfortnately I can...and the only positive thing I can think of is it's being played out on the World Stage, not in the usual dark and seedy Bangkok flea pit.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by sabang

Currently, we have a corrupt and discredited-
government, (both leading party and coalition partners)
'judiciary'
military
Constitution
media sector
police force

please enlighten us again how it was different for the last 10 years ?

How about 40 or 50 years back? Not much difference.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

please enlighten us again how it was different for the last 10 years ?

Because prior to the coup miltary involvement in politics took second stage to the public mandate.

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

Originally Posted by Butterfly

please enlighten us again how it was different for the last 10 years ?

Because prior to the coup miltary involvement in politics took second stage to the public mandate.

....and the numerous coups prior to '06? Militarism has played a continuous role for decades, even during the so-called civilian governments. It continued through Thaksin and onto Abhisit. The rhetorical and surfaced role that the military has played in contemporary Thailand usually follows the same excuse for it's existence - protection of certain traditional entities. And universally, it is bought into and accepted.

Originally Posted by Rural Surin

....and the numerous coups prior to '06? Militarism has played a continuous role for decades, even during the so-called civilian governments. It continued through Thaksin and onto Abhisit.

Butterfly asked about the last 10 years. Thaksin lessened the military influence to such a degree (to his own benefit) that it became second place to the public will, until of course Sonthi started his campaign and the military saw their chance to rid themselves of Thaksin and his party. They have continued to assert their authority by dismantling the opposition and censoring the media, so much so we have regressed decades, perhaps irreparably so.

There are of course other obstacles to democracy that we unfortunately cannot discuss publicly.

Originally Posted by sabang

Currently, we have a corrupt and discredited-
government, (both leading party and coalition partners)
Opposition
'judiciary'
military
Constitution
media sector
police force
and supposed Democracy movement from 2 fronts

or just say.... As usual in Thailand, we have a corrupt and discredited country

Bang on Sabang, however you seem to have forgotten something so I've helped you out

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/o...ctions-and-pad

REFLECTIONS

Chalerm's spot-on prediction, by-elections and PAD

• Published: 30/11/2010 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

And so, we now have a verdict. Comments are certain to fly thick and fast, especially on the internet, about the Constitution Court's dismissal of the electoral funding case against the Democrats. The court based its decision on the rationale that the Election Commission did not "follow legal procedure" because it had failed to file the case within a required time-frame. Therefore, "the rest of the case can be dropped and there is no need to consider anything else", according to the verdict handed down yesterday.

The verdict immediately made me think about the lunch interview which the Post Group had with Puea Thai MP Chalerm Yubamrung late in September. He was asked to give a slam-dunk answer as to whether the Democrats and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva would survive the 29-million-baht electoral funding case.

Mr Chalerm said without hesitation: "I don't think the Democrats will be dissolved. They will serve in government until their term ends in 15 months. Realistically, I can't see anything toppling the Democrat-led government before its term ends."

Mr Chalerm also said that the Democrats would "get off" based on a legal technicality. Crystal ball stuff? Not where Mr Chalerm is concerned. He claimed then that he'd done his homework and that he knows the law. Love or hate him, one has to admit that he was spot on.

Now that the Democrats and PM Abhisit have, for now, survived another challenging political obstacle, the key question is: What next?

So today, Reflections will not be a column of comment per se, but more a view of what is likely to lie ahead.

PM Abhisit has said that he plans to hold elections next year before the end of this government's term at year-end 2011. The current thinking within the government and security officials is to gauge the "political atmosphere and undercurrents" during the upcoming by-elections on Dec 12, before deciding when general elections would be held.

The by-elections in five provinces will see not only a contest between the Democrats and Puea Thai in Bangkok but also between former friends and coalition colleagues in Nakhon Ratchasima, Surin, Khon Kaen and Ayutthaya.

Puea Thai is contesting all five constituencies and expects to win all, except in Bangkok. The polls in Nakhon Ratchasima, Surin and Khon Kaen will be a test of popularity between Puea Thai's de facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra, and Bhumjaithai's de facto leader Newin Chidchob.

But if Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban - the coalition's Mr Fix-It - has his way, he would like to see a general election being held in September 2011.

His reasoning is that by that time, the government's economic policies and relief efforts following recent disasters, would bear fruit and give the coalition the upper hand. What he did not say was that the government would also have yet another opportunity to reinforce its hold on the bureaucracy through another round of provincial and senior ministerial appointments. As much as he would like the coalition to remain in office until September next year, Mr Suthep is realistic and admits that the most likely scenario is that elections could be held in April or May next year.

The by-elections are not the only test this government must face. That test will come sooner, in the form of the People's Alliance for Democracy, which plans a rally on Dec 11 to protest against the government's attempt to seek parliamentary approval for the minutes from three meetings of the Thai-Cambodian Joint Boundary Commission. Further talks on delineating the border can proceed only after the minutes have been endorsed by parliament. The PAD has campaigned against the endorsement, claiming it could result in Thailand losing territory to Cambodia.

As the saying goes, there are no permanent friends or enemies in Thai politics and for a while now, relations between the Democrats and the PAD have been strained to breaking point.

After supporting the Democrats (who over time found it increasingly difficult to respond to yellow shirt desires), the PAD leadership has turned critical of the Democrats.

True to form and in typical fashion, yellow shirt leader Sondhi Limthongkul recently slammed the prime minister as being an ungrateful boy.

DPM Suthep has also raised the gauntlet to thwart the planned PAD rally by urging southerners not to join the rally. Over the weekend he said that rallies by the PAD and its rival movement, the red shirted United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, have caused chaos in recent years.

Both groups have exploited spokesmen in the media such as radio stations, satellite television stations and newspapers, to draw public support for their movements and instigate unrest, Mr Suthep said.

"We must be strong and not let the UDD and the PAD misguide people. Democracy is not about street protests or arson attacks instigated to pressure the government to do what they want," the deputy prime minister said.

The rule of law must be respected and everyone must be treated equally under the law for the benefit of the country, not for particular people such as ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the charismatic leader of the UDD, or PAD-core leader Mr Sondhi.

The two men were equally bad, Mr Suthep said.

While the government may be confident and is counting on political fatigue of the man-in-the-street yellow shirt supporters not to turn up in huge numbers, while also trying its utmost to discourage attendance, the government cannot control - and is more concerned about - the robotic "Ant Army" of Santi Asoke followers. Many will recall that Santi Asoke formed the backbone of the yellow shirt protests against Thaksin. They are disciplined in the extreme and can be cause for concern.

Still, the coalition - so long as they can coordinate their vested interests for a little bit longer - is now in an enhanced position to remain in power well into the New Year.

But sooner or later, there will be a political showdown in a general election. And when it is held we will see Thaksin making yet another bid to return to power. But he has not yet decided how this will be achieved.

According to MP Chalerm in his interview back in September, Puea Thai has no chance of forming the government unless it can win at least half of the seats in the House in the next election, and form a single-party government.

He believes the party has no choice but to use Thaksin as a key element in the campaign.

The party, he says, needs to make a "public agreement"' in its campaign that if it can form a single-party government, it will bring back Thaksin, introduce a bill to grant him and all political and administrative offenders a blanket amnesty, reinstate the 1997 constitution and promote the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party's economic policies. Everything, he said, will be "set to zero".

It remains to be seen whether the party will adopt MP Chalerm's general election strategy. But one thing is certain, it will not achieve reconciliation and overcome the deep divisions which will persist well into 2011 and beyond.

How can we heal the wounds? Can the division be narrowed that would help us achieve reconciliation? That is a topic for another day of Reflections.Till next time...

Pichai Chuensuksawadi is Editor-in-Chief of Post Publishing Plc. He can be reached at: pichai[at]bangkokpost.co.th.

Originally Posted by Rural Surin

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by sabang

Currently, we have a corrupt and discredited-
government, (both leading party and coalition partners)
'judiciary'
military
Constitution
media sector
police force

please enlighten us again how it was different for the last 10 years ?

How about 40 or 50 years back? Not much difference.

the average farang expat can't go that far

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

Butterfly asked about the last 10 years. Thaksin lessened the military influence to such a degree (to his own benefit) that it became second place to the public will

I don't call putting your family members and minions in key military posts lessening the military influence, more like controlling it for who knows what. Eventually, he could have declare himself Grand Generalissimo with the full support of the cattle and the Army.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Love or hate him, one has to admit that he was spot on.

hate him and lets be honest, he picked the evens favourite scenario.....

Don't forget he's spent enough time on the 'right' side of the fence in the past, only having changed sides when it suits him. He'd switch back as well if it suited him and they would allow it.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Everything, he said, will be "set to zero".

Yep, I could see him and his darling offspring involved in a 'Year Zero Campaign' given a chance. Old Pig face would be there along side him for that one you can be sure.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...-more-pressure

Academic: Govt to face more pressure

• Published: 30/11/2010 at 01:34 PM
• Online news:

The government is likely to face more pressures from political groups after the Consitution Court ruled to dismiss the dissolution case against Democrat Party, an academic said on Tuesday.

The red-shirt supporters of the United front for Democracy against Dictatorship who are not happy with the verdict could rally against it, said Pichai Rattanadilok na Phuket, deputy dean of Social Development Faculty at the National Institute of Development Administration.

Another pressure would come from the planned anti-endorsement of the three memorandums of understanding made between Thailand and Cambodia mass rally on Dec 11 by the People’s Alliance for Democracy, he added.

“If the government could not stand for the pressure, it might have to dissolve the House of Representatives late next month”, Mr Pichai said.

The deputy dean personally believed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva would be able to stand for the pressure as the government now has more stability after the coalition partners were happy with the passage of the two charter change drafts.

“If it is so, the constitutional amendments would complete in February and there will be house dissolution to pave way for fresh election soon after that”, he said.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

please enlighten us again how it was different for the last 10 years ?

too easy ,

one lot was voted in . numerous times

one lot wasn't .

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Eventually, he could have declare himself Grand Generalissimo with the full support of the cattle and the Army.

Could've, would've... maybe... possibly... if... but...

Originally Posted by Mid

Originally Posted by Butterfly

please enlighten us again how it was different for the last 10 years ?

too easy ,

one lot was voted in . numerous times

one lot wasn't .

Democracy is not a popular contest, mid. I understand your pea brain keep confusing the two, but I think you should be reminded that the last 10 years were no different.

Will probably be lost on you

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Eventually, he could have declare himself Grand Generalissimo with the full support of the cattle and the Army.

Could've, would've... maybe... possibly... if... but...

almost certain, he fitted the profile of a mad dictator (which could explain how popular he is with conservatives and BNP supporters)

it was only a question of time,

I am pretty sure the coup was about to remove a petty dictator in the making. Of course it wasn't really democratic since it didn't involve democratic institutions, but technically it was legal and we all know why

An essential process in representative democracies is competitive elections[13] and procedurally.[14]

Furthermore, freedom of political expression, freedom of speech, and freedom of the press are essential so that citizens are informed and able to vote in their personal interests.[15][16]

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikiped...wiki/Democracy

election is one pillar of Democracy, but not the main one.

Electing anti-democratic dictators doesn't make a country more democratic,

see Burma and Singapore as an example

err how do you elect dictators ?

Dictatorships are often characterized by some of the following traits: suspension of elections and of civil liberties; proclamation of a state of emergency; rule by decree; repression of political opponents without abiding by rule of law procedures; these include single-party state, and cult of personality

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Dictator

Originally Posted by Mid

err how do you elect dictators ?

^^ you go to the poll booth