The COVID-2019 Thread

[HuangLao]

Each time a country pats itself on the back for slowing the virus, this is what I think about.

What might be even scarier is the possibility of this said "second wave" [or the third] might have an attached stronger/resistant strain of the bug.
These theories have been discussed and examined by the medical/health/scientific circles.....

[baldrick]

I am yet to be convinced anyone has a handle on this virus yet - I am still not convinced about the antibody saga

a handle on the fist one

the belgian boiler room spermtoon has a handle on his fist - probably a rope on it too so it does not disappear into the nether

[bowie]

Problem is nobody has got a handle on this - yet...

Certain facts that remain since the "discovery", 80% of those infected experience mild symptoms.
Due to a lack of testing we do not know just how prevalent the infection(s) are.

In does kill the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.
But, keep in mind 85% of old folks (80+) somehow managed to survive.


Now, as time goes on and information is gathered we make our decisions on how best to protect our society.


Where does the balance lie between humanitarian and economic survival?
To what point do we shut down economies to protect the vulnerable?

We've had TB sanitariums and leper colonies. Perhaps controlled restricted isolation of the vulnerable will be part of the solution.

Altohugh we will all die at some point in time, the greater majority will NOT die from Covid-19.

[Bettyboo]

There is some hope for optimism, although this should be tempered by the spread of the virus into countries where testing may be nearly non-existent.

When it went over 100,000 new cases a day it was looking grim, but it seems to have stabilised which is good news.

Let's hope this trend continues.

Attachment 48467

We're well over 100,000 in the last 24 hours, 'Arry; can't remember the hour by hour, but it's around 115,000 to 120,000 growth 'today'.

[NamPikToot]

The only way i see out of this is a vaccine and in its absence i think we in a holding pattern until one arrives 6 months - 1 year anyone?

[harrybarracuda]

Bit late for that in Us and Europe methinks

You must be joking.

Europe has not even hit 1,000,000 cases yet, and even if Iceland's probably quite realistic figure of 50% of cases being asymptomatic, and you were generous and doubled that, you are still talking probably 4 million cases out of 572 million people.

The US has half a million cases, so extrapolate along the same lines and you get two million out of 328 milllion.

Of course it's not too late for contact tracing to be useful.

Do you think every time you go the supermarket you are exposed to someone infected?

[harrybarracuda]

150-160,000 people die annually in Australia,
So far 53 people have died from covid 19 - the lockdown here is overkill. The payback in economical terms is horrendous and will far outweigh the life saving benefits.

I would be grateful that your country reacted early and is containing it. The reason you have such a small number of dead is that you have a small number of infected (<7,000), and lockdown is most certainly a major contributory factor.

Maybe the powers that be know something we don’t - The lab in Wuhan is my pick for the start of this pandemic.

[harrybarracuda]

We're well over 100,000 in the last 24 hours, 'Arry; can't remember the hour by hour, but it's around 115,000 to 120,000 growth 'today'.

I wouldn't be so obsessed with pretty pictures - look at the numbers.

JH is using Worldometer's figures among others, and they work from Midnight-Midnight GMT.

If you look at global numbers the shallowing of the curve of the last few days did blip yesterday, but it wasn't necessarily in the US (there is no separate graph for Europe unfortunately):






Which means the uptick is elsewhere.

Although it's hard to see where looking at just raw numbers, individual countries will highlight if they have a big jump (depending what their leadership permits to be made public of course).

[harrybarracuda]

NEW DELHI/DHAKA (Reuters) - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has decided to extend a nationwide lockdown to tackle the spread of the coronavirus, the chief minister of Delhi state said on Saturday, without disclosing how long the extension would be for.

Earlier in the day, Modi held a video conference call with several state ministers to decide on the future course as the current 21-day lockdown ends on Tuesday.

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said Modi had “taken (a) correct decision to extend (the) lockdown”, but did not give further details.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southasia/india-to-extend-nationwide-lockdown-to-tackle-coronavirus-state-minister-idUSKCN21T085?il=0

[harrybarracuda]

An easy way to fix the leaks in your surgical masks.

[harrybarracuda]

Dubai: Saudi Arabia announced 364 new cases of the coronavirus on Friday, bringing to 3,651 the total number of confirmed infections across the kingdom. The ministry has also reported three more deaths from the virus, taking the total number of deaths to 47.

The Ministry of Interior also announced a total lockdown on five neighbourhoods in Medina starting today until a further notice, in bid to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

The neighborhoods include Al Sherbat; Bani Dhafar; Qurban, Al Jumuah; and parts of Al Iskan district and Bani Khudrah. No one will be allowed to enter or exit these areas, the ministry added.

An official source from the ministry highlighted that the Ministry of Labor and Social Development will provide residents of these neighbourhoods with food baskets and will follow up on their needs while the ministry of health will provide them with necessary medications.

The ministry also announced 19 COVID-19 patients have made full recovery, pushing the total number of patients recovered to 685.

The ministry called on all citizens to stay at home and not to leave unless for necessaries.

Meanwhile, the Saudi Civil Aviation announced it has prepared three airports in Riyadh, Dammam and Jeddah to receives Saudis stranded abroad, adding that today the first batch of Saudis returned from Indonesia.

Precautionary measures

Earlier last week, Saudi Arabia imposed a 24-hour curfew and lockdown on the cities of Riyadh, Tabuk, Dammam, Dhahran and Hofuf and throughout the governorates of Jeddah, Taif, Qatif and Khobar as of Monday night.

Authorities had already sealed off the holy cities of Makkah and Medina along with Riyadh and Jeddah, barring people from entering and exiting as well as prohibiting movement between all provinces.

Saudi Arabia, which has reported the highest number of infections in the Gulf, is making every possible effort to limit the spread of the disease at home.

Also, all coronavirus patients in all government and private health facilities in Saudi Arabia are now getting free treatment, as per the directives of King Salman.

https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/saudi/saudi-arabia-announced-364-new-cases-of-the-coronavirus-lockdown-announced-1.1586522793896

[harrybarracuda]

I'm sure SA will be thrilled to hear of this British Bulldog Backs to the Wall Wartime Spirit.

As British politicians invoke memories of World War II’s “Blitz Spirit” during the coronavirus lockdown, and many are quietly channeling the stoic resolve their elders showed in the face of enormous hardship, some in the nation’s baking community are taking a more direct cue from history.

Britain’s “National Loaf” - a nutrient-dense wholemeal bread first produced in 1942 – has been re-emerging in recent weeks.

Today, as was the case back then, a scarcity of ingredients and a concern for public health are challenging the culinary status quo.

After panic-buyers cleared supermarket shelves of flour, smaller-scale producers like Mungoswells Malt and Milling in East Lothian, Scotland, have seen a surge in sales.

“We normally expect three to five enquiries over a weekend. Last Monday morning when we came in, we had 400 orders, actual concrete orders,” Angus McDowall told NBC News.

To keep up with the demand, the mill is focusing production on “85 percent extraction” brown flour, like that used in the National Loaf. This is far more efficient to make and allows for a healthier end product, he said.

“It is more nutritious than a white loaf, whether it’s bought from a supermarket, made yourself, or whatever. The more of the bran that you can get into the bread, the better it is for you,” McDowall said.

Health was also a consideration for the wartime ministry of food, where the National Loaf was devised, according to Bryce Evans, a food historian and an associate professor at the Liverpool Hope University in the United Kingdom.

“As we know today, darker bread is better for you. In addition to other nutrients added to the bread, levels of thiamine (Vitamin B1) were higher in the National Loaf,” he said.

Nutritious as it may have been, it was not much loved by British consumers.

Wright Atha, 92, who ate it at the time, does not have fond memories of the “mushy” wartime mainstay.

“It wasn’t very nice. It was a bit grainy, a bit mushy. Most things in the war weren’t very nice, mind you,” he said.

However, another English baker claims that the addition of just salt, water and yeast to the flour can make the loaf “simple and delicious.”

Steven Winter, the owner of Bread Source in the eastern city of Norwich, said he set out to produce a loaf for “people who needed something a little bit more substantial and sustaining than typical additive-filled supermarket bread”, after recognizing the health and social cost of the coronavirus pandemic.

While free loaves are offered to those made jobless by the virus, others can buy the bread, which his team makes in their free time, for just over a buck. Health and social care staff get added discounts.

“We’ve had excellent feedback across the board,” said Winter, who now wants to see other bakers follow suit. Issuing a call to arms, he has challenged counterparts up and down the country to create their own spin on the National Loaf.

The U.K. has also seen a surging public interest in the growing of fruits and vegetables -- a trend immortalized by the government’s ‘Dig for Victory’ wartime campaign.

Britain embracing its culinary past would be no bad thing, Evans said.

“If standing in supermarket lines during this crisis prompts people to think more deeply and critically about the inequalities and unhealthiness inherent in our food system, all the better,” he added.

As for Atha, he said he was happy to see the National Loaf make a return - “as long as it’s tastier this time around!”

British bakers reintroduce World War II bread in coronavirus fight

[Bettyboo]

Hopefully the US figures won't continue to grow because the numbers are looking horrible.



(Britain, with 20% of the population had half the deaths of the US today - so that's dire too)

We hear lots of complaints about gun deaths per day in the US, and those are what (somebody can probably give better figures than me...) less than 150 per day?

[HuangLao]

....and they can't reason as to why it's spreading/growing so greatly.
Quite simple.
The pathogen is moving because a healthy percentage of the population remain active in groups and crowds.

Not getting it.
Must be a cultural thing.

[Iceman123]

Cats out the bag in US and Europe, too late for contact tracing. Asymptomatic cases make it too hard, Up the medical response, isolate only the elderly and those with underlying health problems

Let’s get it over with ASAP whilst we still have a workable economy.

[Cujo]

South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again, raising questions over health experts' understanding of the pandemic.

The prospect of people being re-infected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are hoping that infected populations will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

The reports have also prompted fears the virus may remain active in patients for much longer than was previously thought.
Recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in blow to immunity hopes

scary

[Cujo]

So immunity isn't a given.

meanwhile a new record in the U.S.
2000 CVD deaths in one day.
The numbers are starting to add up.

[Cujo]

Cats out the bag in US and Europe, too late for contact tracing. Asymptomatic cases make it too hard, Up the medical response, isolate only the elderly and those with underlying health problems

Let’s get it over with ASAP whilst we still have a workable economy.

I'm starting to think you're right.

[OhOh]

Pneumonic Plague Is Diagnosed in China

"Two cases of the fatal and highly infectious illness, which is related to bubonic plague, were found in Beijing, prompting fears of an outbreak.

BySui-Lee Wee

Nov. 13, 2019

"BEIJING — Two people in China were diagnosed with plague, setting off a panic on Tuesday about the potential spread of the highly infectious and fatal disease and prompting China’s government to warn citizens to take precautions to protect themselves.

Beijing officials said the two infected people came from Inner Mongolia, a sparsely populated region of northern China. They sought treatment on Tuesday in a hospital in Beijing’s Chaoyang District, where they were diagnosed with pneumonic plague, according to the government office of the district.

The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said on Weibo, the micro-blogging site, that there was no need for Beijing residents to panic and that the risks of further transmission are “extremely low.” The authorities quickly isolated the patients, conducted epidemiological investigations on the people who could have been exposed and disinfected all the relevant sites, the CDC said. They have also strengthened monitoring of patients with fever, it added.

Pneumonic plague is one of three types of infectious disease known as plague caused by the same bacterium, Yersinia pestis. Patients diagnosed with pneumonic plague, which causes high fevers and shortness of breath, sometimes first contract the closely related and more well-known disease, bubonic plague.

Fears are mounting in China over a possible outbreak of the disease, once known as the Black Death, which killed tens of millions of people in medieval Europe, and spread through Asia and Africa.

Last month, the authorities in China said they would strengthen quarantine measures to prevent plague from entering the country after Madagascar was struck by a fast-spreading outbreak of the disease. It is unclear when the cases were first detected in China but residents are asking why the authorities took so long to diagnose and disclose the problem.

Li Jifeng, a doctor at Beijing Chaoyang Hospital where the two people sought treatment, wrote on WeChat, a social media platform, that the patients sought treatment on Nov. 3. That post, which has since been deleted, was published by CN-Healthcare, a website that covers health care news in China. Dr. Li could not be reached for comment and Beijing Chaoyang Hospital declined to comment.

Dr. Li wrote that the patient she saw was a middle-aged man, who had a fever and complained of breathing difficulties for 10 days. He sought treatment at a hospital in Inner Mongolia but his condition did not improve. His wife also developed a fever and respiratory problems.

“After so many years of specialist training, I’m familiar with the diagnosis and treatment of most respiratory diseases,” wrote Dr. Li. “But this time, I looked and looked at it. I couldn’t guess what pathogen caused this pneumonia. I only knew it was rare.”

On why the authorities took so long to make the announcement, Dr. Li wrote that signs of any infectious disease need to be repeatedly verified and investigated, and such announcements cannot be “transmitted casually.”

The police quarantined the emergency room in the Chaoyang Hospital on Monday night, the news outlet Caixin reported, citing residents.

On Tuesday, Chinese censors instructed online news aggregators in China to “block and control” online discussion related to news about the plague, according to a directive seen by The New York Times.

Sceptical Chinese internet users have charged the government with being slow to disclose news about the disease, which is transmitted between humans and kills even faster than the more-common bubonic form. China has a history of covering up and being slow to announce infectious outbreaks, prompting many people to call for transparency this time.

“The plague is not the most terrifying part,” one user wrote on Weibo. “What’s even scarier is the information not being made public.”

If left untreated, pneumonic plague is always fatal, according to the World Health Organization. But recovery rates are high if detected and treated with antibiotics, within 24 hours of the onset of symptoms, the agency said.

Another user on Weibo called on the government to disclose how the patients arrived in Beijing from Inner Mongolia. If the patients travelled on their own using public transportation they could have spread the disease to many people.

“How many people have they encountered potentially?” the user wrote. “Only 2 kilometres away from Chaoyang Hospital. I’m shaking and trembling.”

According to China’s health commission, six people have died in the country from the plague since 2014. The most recent case was recorded earlier this year.

Officials have warned people to avoid travelling to infected areas and contact with rodents.

Elsie Chen and Zoe Mou contributed research"

Pneumonic Plague Is Diagnosed in China - The New York Times

One suspects if a NYT Reporter knew of this "pneumonic plague", in November 2019, so did "others".

[Dillinger]

South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again, raising questions over health experts' understanding of the pandemic.

Maybe this corona virus has viral latency and can lie dormant then come back like Luigi in the form of Edmond, much like herpes.

It would explain why most get such mild symptoms

[Cujo]

....and they can't reason as to why it's spreading/growing so greatly.
Quite simple.
The pathogen is moving because a healthy percentage of the population remain active in groups and crowds.

Not getting it.
Must be a cultural thing.

Also the fact that asymptomatic people are infectious. Combine that with the haphazard approach the various states employ and the fact is it will never disappear.

[OhOh]

A PDF link to a German research paper, in English:

Flow analyses to validate SARS-CoV-2 protective masks

About distance rules, mouth-nose protection, particle filtering respiratory protection, filter materials and mask manufacturing


Christian J. Kähler, Rainer Hain

University of the Bundeswehr Munich Institute of Fluid Mechanics and Aerodynamics Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39 85577 Neubiberg German

https://www.unibw.de/lrt7/report_mas...06_04_2020.pdf

"German researchers have used flow analysis experiments to test various household material that can be used to make masks. They conclude that high-quality vacuum cleaner bags are the best material usable for the purpose.

On page 20 of their English language report (pdf) they describe and show how to manufacture masks out of them."


Useful for those that have vacuum cleaners.

[harrybarracuda]

Cats out the bag in US and Europe, too late for contact tracing.

Why do you persist with this nonsense in the face of hard evidence?

The vast majority of people in the UK still don't have it, and contact tracing is an excellent way of roping in people who have been exposed before they go spreading it elsewhere.

[NamPikToot]

Interesting spin on old tech

Coronavirus: Reinvented ‘iron lung’ technology could help save the NHS, say experts



Experts are to test their new ‘iron lung’ at three hospitals in coming days to see if it can help the NHS cope with the coronavirus outbreak.

A modern version of “iron lung” machines could be the answer to the health service’s shortage of ventilators during the coronavirus outbreak, according to a group of leading doctors, scientists and engineers.


They have reinvented a modern, smaller version of the technology that was widely used in the last century to treat patients with polio, and helped them to breathe by keeping their bodies in a vacuum.


The taskforce of doctors, engineers and scientists has already developed and tested the machine, called an exovent, which will be delivered to three hospitals within days for real-world testing.


The Royal Papworth Hospital in Cambridge, the UK’s leading heart and lung hospital, is one of three NHS hospitals that have agreed to road test six of the machine in coming days.


The group say the equipment can be built quickly and cheaply with readily available materials.


It comes as the government admitted only 30 new British-built ventilators will be delivered to the NHS next week to treat coronavirus patients, having previously promised thousands within days.


The NHS has scrambled to create thousands of extra intensive care beds amid concerns the health service could be overwhelmed by patients needing to be ventilated.


Read more

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-iron-lung-nhs-ventilation-papworth-a9440931.html

[harrybarracuda]

Pneumonic Plague Is Diagnosed in China

What is the relevance of this supposed to be HoHo? Are the chinkies trying to blame it on Madagascar now?

Hantavirus has emerged in Chinastan during this epidemic.

Neither of these have any epidemiological link to your bat munching heroes spreading a novel Coronavirus.