China pushes plan for canal to reshape Indian Ocean

[Wilsonandson]

Business Stsndard News
Praveen Swami | New Delhi | Last Updated at April 06 2018 06:47 IST



Faced with a new push to build a 100-km canal cutting Thailand in two, and slashing 1,200 km off the route Chinese warships take to reach South Asian ports, Indian naval planners have begun warning the government that the proposed Kra Canal will dramatically enhance Beijing’s ability to intervene in the region.

“In theory, the Kra Canal could benefit India and the region by taking pressure off the overcrowded Malacca Straits,” said a senior Indian naval commander. “In practice, there’s reason to worry about what Chinese involvement in this project will mean for the balance of power in the Indian Ocean”.

Led by former Thai army chief General Pongthep Thesprateep, and backed by several former military figures influential in the country’s ruling junta, the Thai Canal Association called late last month for the creation of a national committee to examine the $30 billion project.

Thailand’s government, wary of irking its Association of Southeast Asian Nations partners, or the United States, has so far declined to support the project. “There are still other problems in the area, therefore they must be prioritised,” said Thai government spokesperson Lieutenant-General Sansern Kaewkamnerd.

But, Indian diplomatic sources said Beijing’s envoy in Bangkok, Lyu Jian, has privately told the Thai government that his country sees the Kra Canal as part of its ambitious One Belt, One Road plan, which envisages pushing new networks of rail, road and maritime links from Asia to Europe and Africa.

Longhao, a Chinese construction company involved in the Chinese government’s controversial island-building work in the South China Seas, is among several firms diplomats say has been lobbying the Thai government to move forward on the Kra Canal.

The proposal put forward by Longhao, an Indian government source said, involved building two offshore islands to berths for ships, warehouses and even entertainment hubs. The company proposes bringing in over 30,000 Chinese workers to build the canal.

From China’s point of view, the Kra Canal offers a means to secure its expanding demand for West Asia’s hydrocarbons against overcrowding in the Malacca Straits — the world’s busiest maritime lane, through which an estimated 84,000 ships carrying around 30 per cent of global trade transit each year.

The World Bank estimates over 140,000 ships will seek to transit the Malacca Straits annually by the end of the decade, far in excess of its capacity of 122,000 ships.

Exiting the Kra Canal westwards, traffic would enter the Andaman Sea, transit past India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and then head south towards the Chinese-owned port at Hambantota, in Sri Lanka.

Inevitably, Indian naval officials worry, the project will involve Chinese military involvement. The Kra Canal would offer an alternative to a route surrounded by the US allies — and thus vulnerable to a blockade in the event of a geopolitical crisis. Former Chinese President Hu Jintao had underlined China’s concerns about the straits, referring to the “Malacca Dilemma”.

Indeed, the geopolitics of the Kra Canal are one reason why Thailand remains divided on moving forward on China’s proposal. Some in Thailand’s strategic establishment fear Chinese investment in the project will, inexorably, lead to an erosion of the country’s sovereignty — a fear founded on the experience of Egypt and Panama, where the canals led to decades of foreign control.

“The history of the Panama and Suez Canals shows despite the unquestionable economic advantages of a canal, one country’s funding of its construction on the territory of another country usually leads to the spread of significant influence by the first country,” scholar Ivica Kinder has pointed out.

Experts remain divided on the economic viability of the Kra Canal. Earlier this year, energy specialist Gary Norman estimated that the canal would need to generate $4.57 million each day to pay for itself. Based on the assumption that 40 ships would transit the canal each day, he noted, that would mean a user fee of $115,000 per transit.

But, Norman pointed out, the typical additional fuel costs for the longer routes through the Malacca, Sunda or Lombok straits range from $40,000 to $120,000 per trip — not enough to justify the canal-use fees.

The Suez Canal and the Panama Canal, bypassing entire continents, are able to charge large ships fees of around $250,000 and $125,000, respectively, because of the far larger savings in time they enable. But, advocates say the Kra Canal project would handle far larger numbers of ships, and also draw investments from businesses linked to shipping, which range from engineering, supplies and legal services. The Thai Canal Association’s plans also envisages building two large free trade zones and a new international airport.

“If we build the canal, we can become an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) leader,” Thai Canal Association vice-president, General Thawatchai Samutsakorn, told an audience in Bangkok.

Thailand’s tourism industry and fisheries could, however, face damage from the project, critics argue. “The proposed canal route would run past tourist areas in the Andaman Sea that generate about 40 per cent of the total revenue from the tourism industry,” expert Thon Thamrongnawasawa noted at a recent academic conference. The idea of a canal cutting through Thailand has been around for centuries: In 1677, then Thai King Narai the Great asked the French engineer M de Lamar to explore the possibility, and in 1793 the idea was revived by Rama I, who thought a canal might help protect the country’s capital. In 1858, Britain secured permission to dig the canal, but the funds ran out before the dig could be completed. Following decades of fears that Japan might build the canal and thus bypass Britain’s base at Singapore, Thailand signed a treaty in 1946 agreeing not to build the canal at all.

In the 20th Century the idea was revived several times — once, in the 1970s, with both Soviet and the United States experts suggesting using nuclear bombs to cut through intractable mountain ridges.

Fears rise in India as China pushes plan for canal to reshape Indian Ocean | Business Standard News

[Wilsonandson]

Many military and geopolitical experts explain Chinese interest in Kra Canal by its’ aspiration to get a controllable link between Pacific and Indian oceans, bypassing Malacca Strait, which is considered by experts as controlled by the USA or its’ allies. China, they say, will get a safe passage for its’ Navy and merchant ships with strategically important goods, such as oil. China, with Kra Canal and artificial islands in the middle of South China sea, will control South China sea and some of the main global sea routes, they say.I don’t believe it’s all that important in present times, it’s an expertise from past times. It’s an outdated thinking, if you ask me. I don’t believe in any full-scale, all-out military conflict between China and USA, either. Why bother with all those noisy and polluting missiles, guns, torpedoes and troops bravery, when one simple act of cutting China from Internet and world finance system will plunge the whole country into chaos?

And by the way, how China can possibly control South China sea routes, in our times? By intercepting each and every freighter and checking its’ holds? It’s not Napoleon era, wake up.

But for Thailand, those super powers games may come very risky. Say, China – USA or China – India relations will deteriorate to a stage of highly probable military conflict. Little doubt as to what USA or India will ask from Thailand – they’ll ask Thailand to close Canal for all military transits, except Thai Navy. No doubt, China will be strongly against it, considering Canal as China’s strategic asset.

Thailand may find itself in exactly the same situation it experienced during WWII, when being caught between two fires, Japan and Allies, the country had to choose – either to sign a treaty with Japan and allow Japanese troops transit to Malay Peninsula, or face military invasion. Thailand signed a treaty, and barely avoided finding itself on the same bench with Germany and Japan in post-war era.

Thailand was never occupied in its’ history, thanks to its’ political skills and lucky geographic location, which is on the outskirts of Asian mainstreams. Isn’t it better to keep it this way?

http://maritimebulletin.net/2017/11/...ased-approach/

[Wilsonandson]

[DJ Pat]

I'd imagine Thailand won't put up a struggle

[Dragonfly]

hey as long as they are getting paid, cutting the country in half is not an issue

when is the next election again ?

[Seekingasylum]

This is such a laughable project one is tempted to encourage the idiots. There is no economic reason for the canal and in truth there is no strategic reason for building it as a means to facilitate the movement of Chinese warships by saving a mere three days sailing time, especially when its destruction is so simple to effect. And just what is the strategic value of Chinese warships in the Indian Ocean? And what warships? The Chinese Navy compared to the US fleets is in the fucking stone age. And if it came to a standoff between the West and the East wherein all economic ties were sundered etc, then China, a glorified coolie shop for the world, would simply dribble away down its own sewer of over-population and bankrupted commie doctrines, and would become an international pariah.

If the Thai actually permitted this then it is obvious the country has become a vassal state and no longer independent - it would be a brave Thai general who went down in history as the man who sold his country to China.

Incidentally, the cost to traverse the Panama and Suez canasl can be up to $300,000 depending on tonnage etc.

[Norton]

China pushes plan for canal to reshape Indian Ocean

FFS, not this silly shit again. If the Chinese Navy wants a strategic presence in the Indian Ocean, simply base naval assets in countries in the Indian Ocean. Several countries would be glad host them.

No matter what the OP claims, I don't believe the Chinese have any intention of building a canal. More nonsense talk from our fine unelected government minions.

[Maanaam]

Thailand’s government, wary of irking its Association of Southeast Asian Nations partners, or the United States,

Ha and LOL. Wary of nothing but not getting some profit, international diplomacy be damned.
Thailand's government is free of ethics or a sense of what's good for the nation, and full of politicians who aim only to line their pockets.

[Luigi]

Incidentally, the cost to traverse the Panama and Suez canasl can be up to $300,000 depending on tonnage etc.

That's a lot of Blue Label and 18 year olds.


Not to mention the 30% added onto the construction costs.

it would be a brave Thai general who went down in history as the man who sold his country to China.

They couldn't give a shit about brave. Think they're gonna turn down $20 million each? Will be lucky if the national flag isn't changed to the Wǔ-Xīng Hóng Qí.

[Wilsonandson]

Indian military scrambles to keep up after China moves to put forces in Africa

• China and India are competing for regional supremacy in the Indian Ocean as they look establish a stronger military and economic presence in bordering countries.
• In response to Beijing's overseas military base in Djibouti, New Delhi has sought to access facilities in the Seychelles, Oman and Singapore.
• Commercial projects by Indian and Chinese firms may be deployed for defense use, experts warned.

Nyshka Chandran | @nyshkac
Published 11:48 PM ET Wed, 28 Feb 2018 Updated 11:55 PM ET Wed, 28 Feb 2018

Competition between historical rivals China and India is spreading across the ocean.




Xinhua / Xu Shouming / Getty Images
A Chinese navy vessel in western Indian Ocean waters on Aug. 25, 2017

From Tanzania to Sri Lanka, the two Asian heavyweights are trying to establish a stronger military and economic presence in countries along the Indian Ocean in a quest for regional supremacy.
China, the world's second biggest economy, is looking to build what some policy experts call a"string of pearls" — a network of defense and commercial facilities — around the massive area. Beijing in 2016 revealed plans to launch its first overseas military base in Djibouti. Numerous business projects by state-owned Chinese enterprises under President Xi Jinping's massive Belt and Road program, which includes a port in Tanzania, have reinforced its efforts.

New Delhi, unsettled by the thought of Beijing dominating its own backyard, is responding in kind.



India and Dubai Port World are working together on logistics 6:30 PM ET Sun, 11 Feb 2018

On a visit to Oman last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured access to naval facilities in the Middle Eastern state, which is near the Strait of Hormuz. More than 30 percent of seaborne oil exports pass through that narrow waterway daily.
Earlier this year, India signed a 20-year pact with the Seychelles to build an airstrip and a jetty for its navy. Last November, Modi's team inked a pact with Singapore that may boost Indian access to that country's Changi naval base.
"It seems that we are in the middle of a base race across the Indian Ocean," David Brewster, senior research fellow at at the Australian National University, wrote in a February note published on think tank The Lowy Institute. "Watch this space."
The Indian Ocean, which borders Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Australia, is home to major sea lanes and choke points that are crucial to global trade. Nearly 40 percent of the world's offshore petroleum is produced in the Indian Ocean, which also has rich mineral deposits andfisheries.


Putting commercial projects to military use?

Commercial projects undertaken by Indian and Chinese companies could also be put to military purposes.
When China Merchants Port Holdings signed a 99-year lease on Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port in July, worries emerged that China's navy would make use of the facility despite Sri Lanka's assurances to the contrary. A few months later, Reuters reported that New Delhi was looking to take over Hambantota's local airport.
Indian and Western diplomats "are convinced that Hambantota will end up becoming a Chinese military and naval base, or another Djibouti," the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank, said in an October report.
The Maldives and Myanmar, both recipients of Chinese investment, also seen as possible areas that China's military could use.
It's a similiar story in Iran, where India Ports Global is developing the deep-sea Chabahar port — widely seen as a counter to China's Gwadar port in Pakistan.
"Future military uses of Chabahar by India cannot be ruled out," said Brewster. The $85 million Chabahar project, located only about 350 kilometers from Gwadar, is aimed at creating a transit route between India, Iran and Afghanistan.
The Indian Ocean has also become a hotspot for weapons technology.
Beijing plans to deploy sea-based anti-missile systems there, according to recent reports. And analysts said New Delhi's 2017 request for U.S. aerial drones was aimed at monitoring Chinese activity in the ocean.

Nyshka ChandranReporter, CNBC Asia-Pacific

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/28/mili...ian-ocean.html

[baldrick]

especially when its destruction is so simple to effect

one cruise missle on a lock

If the Thai actually permitted this

why not - free money for a new carp rivver

[Wilsonandson]

[david44]

why not - free money for a new carp rivver

They have a cunning Plan , plan P where to put the soil, they'll dig another hole and put in the KRA P , plan to those in the NO

Living near a town with many new unused facilities , I used to wonder why then a kindly Thai explained if it's profitable for the contractor etc....Like the train if someone else is oing tp make infrastructure , bungs, jobs , profits, up to Yoooooooooooooooo

[HuangLao]

FFS, not this silly shit again. If the Chinese Navy wants a strategic presence in the Indian Ocean, simply base naval assets in countries in the Indian Ocean. Several countries would be glad host them.

No matter what the OP claims, I don't believe the Chinese have any intention of building a canal. More nonsense talk from our fine unelected government minions.

Nor do I believe the Chinese truly wish to proceed with such a mega-project - a boondoggle in the making
As for expanding trade and commerce throughout the broader Indian Ocean Rim region, they already dominate in this aspect.

And, as you've pointed out, Naval facilities wouldn't be terribly difficult to secure [with the exception of India] within the region as most are Chinese-friendly/ready.

Remembering that the Chinese, historically, held dominance and influence throughout the broader Indian Ocean Rim/Basin - from SE Asia to Arabia.
Historic cycles coming around.

Contemporary stories as these promote the ever-lasting imaginations/fallacies among the Anglo-American world that they, indeed, somehow "own" the respective and strategic Pacific and Indian Oceans and therefore set the fanciful rules.
Sorry, not the way things work in reality.

The illusioned visions of the great Yellow Peril has never ceased among these particular circles -

[Wilsonandson]

Coming soon, Kra Canal!

[Luigi]

I hope there'll be a fence along it that can stop pick-ups, minivans and inter-provincial buses from going plop-plop.

[Wilsonandson]

[HuangLao]

Such geo-strategic proposals will divide the deep south even more so.
Perfect opportunity for a stronger separatism call.

ei ei...

[Wilsonandson]

Plenty of migrant workers available. Let the construction begin.

[OhOh]

I agree it is a very important decision to make and all concerns should be fully investigated, policy agreed in government and possibly even a public vote, by Thais. Not foreign governments.

Unheard of foreign companies, lobbying sovereign countries government to make a profit on a project.

One wonders what the Panama canal "foreign authorities' will do if problems arise? Will the " foreign authorities" ban certain countries from using it.?

The article is projecting other countries proven use of terror, on a currently benign country. But as some here, MK, continue to illustrate the fear can be stoked higher and higher to the sheep.

the proposed Kra Canal will dramatically enhance Beijing’s ability to intervene in the region.

As opposed to "foreign others" ability as published, brutal and illegal plans to intervene in the Malacca Strait.

against overcrowding in the Malacca Straits

Or blockage by "foreign others", based on published foreign government documents.

Inevitably, Indian naval officials worry, the project will involve Chinese military involvement

Inevitable, or based on "foreign others" actions in similar circumstances - rigged elections, military force, corruption, .........

“The history of the Panama and Suez Canals shows despite the unquestionable economic advantages of a canal, one country’s funding of its construction on the territory of another country usually leads to the spread of significant influence by the first country,” scholar Ivica Kinder has pointed out.

Based on "foreign others" brutal past and present behaviour. Care to list Chinese illegal interventions or influence on foreign countries in the past xxx years.

Some countries have been at war, constantly for centuries. Their list of military, commercial and political "interventions" are available to all that wish to search for them.

[Latindancer]

Can anyone tell me how high the land is at it's highest point in that region ? And for how far ?

[Wilsonandson]

There is about 30 miles of canal left to dig.