Thread: Can Trump reverse Thailand’s drift towards China?

by Qi Lin , October 29, 2017



Under the doctrine of “America First,” the Thai military regime has enjoyed warming relations with the United States. However, economic and development opportunities with China have pulled Thailand into China’s orbit. Does the U.S. have the chance to increase its engagement in Thailand – or will China emerge as the preeminent economic and security guarantor in Southeast Asia?

Following the Thai military coup in 2014, the United States withdrew support its support for the new military regime. The U.S. canceled a series of visits, downgraded its level of engagement and suspended military assistance to this country. Joint military exercises proceeded as planned, but on a smaller scale and under restricted conditions. Since 2013, U.S. participation in the exercises has dropped to an annual commitment of 3,600 troops, down from 9,500.

The U.S.-Thailand alliance boost

However, by emphasising “America First,” the Trump administration has shifted U.S. foreign policy priorities to emphasize American trade and strategic interests over democracy and human rights. The U.S.-Thailand relationship has gradually thawed, and both countries are resuming strategic dialogues and military interactions. In February, the U.S. Pacific Command chief Admiral Harry Harris attended this year’s Cobra Gold joint military exercise, while in August, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency approved the sale of Harpoon Block II Missiles to Thailand.

In a joint statement between Thailand and the U.S. made at the recent Trump-Prayut White House summit in early October, both sides committed to further defense cooperation. The statement emphasizes in particular the larger role Thailand is expected to play in resolving tension on the Korean Peninsula and in the South China Sea. In the economic realm, the U.S. anticipates an increase in Thai imports of U.S. goods and investment in the United States to underpin an expansion of trade ties with Bangkok and create more U.S. jobs. For Prayut’s regime, these renewed commitments can help the developing Thai economy and bolster the legitimacy of the military regime. Thailand urges more U.S. businesses to invest in Thailand and the Eastern Economic Corridor initiatives to support its Eastern Seaboard growth.

US and Thai rear admirals meet at a naval base in Thailand during training exercises.



Bangkok’s shift toward Beijing

Washington’s criticism of the 2014 coup, its reduction in military assistance to Bangkok, and its decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership have all pushed Thailand closer to China economically and strategically.

The Chinese economic footprint in Thailand has rapidly expanded in the last ten years. From 2006 to 2016, Chinese foreign direct investment in Thailand increased from 1 to 15%, supplanting the U.S. as one of Thailand’s top economic partners. In addition, Thailand has become an important consumer of Chinese arms and military equipment. For instance, Thailand signed an order for 28 VT-4 battle tanks and approved a bill to buy a Chinese submarine.

Because of its pivotal position, Thailand plays an important role in China’s “One Belt One Road” initiative. Economic engagement with China promises several development opportunities, including the construction of the Kra Isthmus Canal and a high-speed rail line. For China, a canal in Kra Isthmus connecting the Andaman Sea in the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea would create an alternative to transit through the Strait of Malacca. Currently, nearly one-third of global trade and one-third of all oil and natural gas pass through the Strait—a critical vulnerability in China’s energy supply chain. The Sino-Thai high-speed rail line would create an invaluable land route linking China’s Yunnan province to the canal, Singapore, and the Strait of Malacca. The two projects would strengthen Thailand’s role as the transport hub in the region, boost its economic growth, and contribute to the Eastern Economic Corridor project.

A high speed train in China.



Challenges and opportunities

The foundations laid by the Trump-Prayut summit present an opportunity for both sides to benefit and expand. For the Trump administration, it could provide precisely the reversal the U.S. needs for its strained alliances in Southeast Asia. The Thai government under Prayut could use this opportunity to address key economic and security concerns and recalibrate Thai foreign policy to more carefully balance its interests between China and the United States. Trump’s upcoming attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and the East Asia Summit in November will be a valuable opportunity for U.S. to lay out its approach toward Thailand and Southeast Asia, as many have perceived the summits as a litmus test of U.S. engagement.

Even though some improvements have been made in repairing the relationship between these two countries, other strategic challenges will take longer to resolve. The United States remains concerned over Thailand’s close relationship with China and Thailand must navigate the many uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration’s policy in Asia. Although Bangkok has thus far remained neutral in regional competition between China and the United States, conflict in the region could disrupt this delicate balance. Because Thailand is neither a claimant in the South China Sea disputes nor taken a strong stand against China’s growing military presence in the region, where it falls in the balance between the United States’ and China’s regional influence will depend on how each side nurtures opportunities like the Trump-Prayut summit.

Can Trump reverse Thailand?s drift towards China? | Global Risk Insights

So....how is this drift a problem?

Originally Posted by HuangLao

So....how is this drift a problem?

"Thailand is a key U.S. security ally in Asia, and the country's stability and growth are important to the maintenance of peace in the region. Since World War II, the United States and Thailand have significantly expanded diplomatic, security, and commercial relations."

US Department of State : Jan 24, 2017

Originally Posted by Wilsonandson

"Thailand is a key U.S. security ally in Asia, and the country's stability and growth are important to the maintenance of peace in the region. Since World War II, the United States and Thailand have significantly expanded diplomatic, security, and commercial relations."

US Department of State : Jan 24, 2017

You really don't know, do ya?

Originally Posted by Wilsonandson

Can Trump reverse Thailand’s drift towards China?

Not a chance. Trump has less diplomatic skill than a warthog in rut.
Trump has nothing to offer Thailand that China can't top.
China will increasingly become and already is the preferred option for near all SEA nations.

Originally Posted by HuangLao

You really don't know, do ya?

Strategic importance.

Originally Posted by Norton

Not a chance. Trump has less diplomatic skill than a warthog in rut.
Trump has nothing to offer Thailand that China can't top.
China will increasingly become and already is the preferred option for near all SEA nations.

Trump could walk on water and it would not change the outcome.
As that guy in the movie said, show me the money and the money is from China.

Originally Posted by HuangLao

So....how is this drift a problem?

It is only a problem to the US as they see it as a challenge to their dominance in this part of the world.

They now realise they need Thailand and made a mistake sanctioning Thailand over the military coup while supporting one in Egypt. This is evident by things like inviting the PM to a meeting with the President while cutting funding to Egypt under the FMF scheme and other aid.

They see China as an enemy, after all it is communist and the US fight against (the spread of) communism has cost billions of dollars and millions of lives, but as a consumer society the US needs things it does not make itself that China can supply and the US have better enemies at present so China stays in the 'prevent the spread of influence' category.

As far as Thailand is concerned they are happy to stay on a friendly basis and do business with both or anyone else who will buy Thailand's exports or supply what they want, need.

Originally Posted by birding

As far as Thailand is concerned they are happy to stay on a friendly basis and do business with both or anyone else who will buy Thailand's exports or supply what they want, need.

including tourists!

but not to worry...the donald is hard at work making it 1967 again.

Originally Posted by HuangLao

You really don't know, do ya?

I know that Thailand has historically and repetitively gone belly up constantly in the face of real adversity.

But if they want China as an ally then go for it. Says more about Thailands ruling party than not, dont ya think?

^more about money.

Originally Posted by HuangLao

So....how is this drift a problem?

How is it not a problem?