Thread: Any doubts about Climate Change?

Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social

Here are monthly temperatures in ERA5 along with the projection (and two-sigma uncertainty) for April:

@hausfath.bsky.social on Bluesky

Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org
NEW – State of the climate: 2025 close behind 2024 as the hottest start to a year |
@hausfath.bsky.social

@carbonbrief.org on Bluesky

NASA – March 2025 was the 2^nd warmest March recorded.

NASA

Fossil fuel companies caused $28 trillion in climate damage, study finds. These 5 are tied to the most harm.

Extreme heat caused by emissions from 111 fossil fuel companies cost an estimated $28 trillion between 1991 and 2020, according to researchers at Dartmouth College.

Their study, which was published Wednesday in "Nature," presents a peer-reviewed method for tying emissions to specific climate harms. Their goal is to help hold companies liable for the cost of extreme weather, similar to holding the tobacco industry liable for lung cancer cases or pharmaceutical companies liable for the opioid crisis.

The research firm Zero Carbon Analytics counts 68 lawsuits filed globally about climate change damage, with more than half of them in the United States.

"We argue that the scientific case for climate liability is closed," wrote the study's authors, Christopher Callahan, who received his PhD from Dartmouth College, and Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth Department of Geography professor.

5 top emitting companies

About a third of the total cost was attributed to five companies, which can be tied to more than $9 trillion in climate damage, according to the study.

These are the top-emitting companies:

• Saudi Aramco: $2.05  trillion
• Gazprom: $2  trillion
• Chevron: $1.98  trillion
• ExxonMobil: $1.91 trillion
• BP: $1.45  trillion

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08751-3.epdf

5 ways we’re making progress on climate change

Any time I try to convince skeptical people that the world isn’t as bad as they think it is — which I do quite a lot, given that I write a newsletter called Good News — they usually come back with a two-word rejoinder: “climate change.”

It’s a tough one to rebut. Climate change is very real, and its toll is worsening by the year. 2024 was the hottest year on record, and the first year where the average global temperature was 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than it was in the pre-industrial era — a red line set by policymakers as part of the Paris agreement. Antarctica’s winter sea ice dropped to its second-lowest level on record this past fall, while the world has now experienced more than $4 trillion — yes, with a “t” — in damages from extreme weather events since 1970. And in the White House, President Donald Trump is busy eviscerating government climate research and pulling back on clean energy policies.

Climate change presents a difficult challenge to the narrative of progress. Not just because it’s causing death and destruction now, and not just because each year it gets cumulatively worse, but because in many ways it is the direct result of trends that have otherwise made the world better.

Economic growth makes us all better, but it requires more energy, and as long as that energy mostly derives from fossil fuels, which still provide about 80 percent of global energy, it will make the world warmer as well. In a particularly bitter irony, one of the most important environmental advances in recent years — the reduction in conventional air pollution — seems to play a role in accelerating the pace of climate change.

But two things can be true: Even as climate change gets worse every year, every year we’re making more progress to slow it down. That’s the theme of “Escape Velocity,” an excellent package that came out this week from Vox’s climate team. As Vox climate editor Paige Vega wrote: “The energy economy is transitioning. Technology is advancing. The market is shifting. Our politics might feel stuck, but in many important ways, we continue to move forward.”

So, in honor of the end of Earth Week, here are five positive trends that demonstrate that the fight against climate change is far from lost.

1. The worst-case scenario is looking better

Climate change is bad now, but it could do even more damage in the future, as the carbon dioxide we’re adding to the atmosphere keeps accumulating. The worst-case scenario outlined by UN climate scientists could result in as much as 4° to 5°C of warming, which could reduce global GDP by as much as 15 percent, destroy coral reefs around the world, leave large parts of the Earth all but uninhabitable, and push the world past environmental tipping points with consequences we can’t begin to know.

2. Clean energy is beating coal
3. Batteries are world-beating
4. The clean-energy economy is humming
5. Climate innovation is only getting started

https://www.yahoo.com/news/5-ways-ma...123000252.html

Zack Labe @zacklabe.com
For March 2025, sea surface temperatures across the northern half of the Atlantic Ocean were below the recent exceptional peak, but still record high compared to all other years in this dataset. Data from psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded...

@zacklabe.com on Bluesky

Zack Labe @zacklabe.com

The global mean surface air temperature anomaly (departure from average) so far this year compared to the last 150+ years... Data from NOAAGlobalTemp v6.0.0 averaged over January to March and available from www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan...

@zacklabe.com on Bluesky

JMA – March 2025 was the 3^rd warmest March recorded

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

1st. 2024(+0.66°C), 2nd. 2016(+0.57°C), 3rd. 2025(+0.56°C), 4th. 2020(+0.50°C), 5th. 2023(+0.49°C)

JMA

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social

Annual update of the Nenana Ice Challenge timeseries. Trend since 1970 is an earlier date by about 1.3 days per decade.

(break up date via @alaskawx.bsky.social): @climateofgavin.bsky.social on Bluesky

@alaskawx.bsky.social on Bluesky

Canadians chose Mark Carney who leads the ruling Liberal Party, as their prime minister in MondayÂ’s election, rejecting the anti-climate action Conservative Party of Pierre Poilievre.

Carbon tax on industry stays

But he did maintain the carbon price on big industries, which the Conservatives had promised to scrap. Analysis from the Canadian Climate Institute suggested that, while the consumer carbon price grabbed the headlines, the industrial price was expected to drive three times more emissions reductions by 2030.

CarneyÂ’s election manifesto also promises to boost electric vehicle production and use, as well as infrastructure to transmit electricity across the country and carbon removal and storage technology.

The Conservative manifesto pledged to “unleash Canadian resources”, by scrapping the emissions cap on oil and gas production, enabling construction of gas export terminals on Canada’s west coast and approving oil exports from Arctic ports.

China Briefing 1 May 2025: Xi steadfast on climate; Solar and wind surpassed thermal power; Controlling short-term GHGs

China confirms climate commitment

XI’S NOT FOR TURNING: Chinese president Xi Jinping confirmed that the country’s 2035 “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) will cover the “entire scope of the economy, including all greenhouse gases” and be published before COP30, Bloomberg reported. It added that these comments, made at a virtual meeting of global leaders, signaled that “China won’t back off from its ambitions” on climate change, despite economic and geopolitical challenges. Reuters noted that Xi also flagged that “China’s actions to address climate change will not slow down”. As “Xi’s first international appearance on climate change since 2021”, the speech “sends a clear signal of China’s support for multilateralism”, Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Bloomberg. Nevertheless, campaign group Greenpeace East Asia global policy advisor Yao Zhe “cautioned against” interpreting it as meaning that an ambitious climate pledge is “guaranteed”, Climate Home News said, adding that it “remains an open question, especially given the ongoing tariff war with the US”.

BRAZIL’S INFLUENCE: The meeting was part of a broader campaign by COP30 host Brazil to persuade China, the EU and other powers “to commit to cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep global warming well below 2C”, Reuters reported. Shortly before the meeting, Huang Runqiu, head of China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment, reaffirmed China’s commitment to tackle climate change at a meeting with COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago in Beijing, according to China Environment News. Corrêa do Lago later told journalists he believes China is developing a “very ambitious” climate pledge, Bloomberg said.

Short-term pollutant

HFCs are man-made GHGs that can be several thousand times stronger at absorbing heat than carbon dioxide (CO2). One type, HFC-23, is 10,000 times more powerful than CO2.

They are used in a number of appliances, particularly as coolants for fridges and air conditioning.

Efforts to phase them out are governed by the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on ozone-depleting substances, which China ratified in 2021.

China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of HFCs, accounting for more than 70% of global production and 50% of consumption. It also produces and consumes the majority of the appliances that use them.

Its HFC emissions stood at 273m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2020, according to the government’s recently-submitted GHG inventory. This is equivalent to more than 2% of China’s CO2 emissions that year, which totalled 11bn tonnes.

Despite HFCs’ relatively low share in overall GHG emissions, their absorption strength necessitates their inclusion in climate strategies, says Sun Xiaopu, senior China counsel at the thinktank Institute For Governance and Sustainable Development (IGSD).

She told Carbon Brief that mitigating HFCs will help avoid “short-term global warming” and climate tipping points.
Action plan for 2030

The government’s plan sets targets and timelines for “gradually reducing” production and consumption of appliances using HFCs by 2030, as well as reducing or banning consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs).

These include lowering HFC production by 2029 by 10% from a 2024 baseline of 2bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e). Consumption would also be reduced 10% from a baseline of 900MtCO2e in this timeframe. This aligns with China’s obligations under the Kigali Amendment.

From 2026, China will “prohibit” the production of fridges and freezers using HFC refrigerants.

From 2029, it will ban the use of HFCs in most cooling systems, including air conditioners and other refrigeration equipment – prioritising the automotive, home appliance and industrial cooling sectors.

To enforce this, China will take measures such as requiring licences for manufacturing and consumption of controlled HFCs, improving monitoring of the production of HFC-23, as well as encouraging recycling of HFC refrigerants, and imposing import and export quotas for HFC refrigerants (although not the appliances that use them).

The plan will also introduce “stricter legal liabilities and higher financial penalties” to deter non-compliance, said Zheng Tan, programme officer of the industry programme at the climate nonprofit Energy Foundation.

He told Carbon Brief this is a “crucial step” in strengthening China’s existing HFC policy framework.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/china-br...ort-term-ghgs/

Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social

April 2025 was the second warmest April on record (after 2024) in the ERA5 dataset, at around 1.51C above preindustrial levels: @hausfath.bsky.social on Bluesky

Canada Rebukes Trump—But That May Just Be the Start of Mark Carney's Role in History

I’ve been watching Carney for a long time and there's a few things you should know about this man, especially as the U.S. president tries to drag the world back onto the dead-end street of fossil fuels.

I want to tell you today about two potential bright spots.

The most obvious joy, of course, came last night in Canada, where citizens of the not-51st-state rejected a Trump-lite figure named Pierre Poilievre (who had been leading by 23 points on January 20!) and instead elected Mark Carney to lead their country. This has been correctly interpreted by all as a reaction to the ham-handed bullying of the canned ham currently resident in the White House. But though he was elected a little by accident (albeit after a brilliant campaign) it means something far more: in Carney we now have the world leader who knows more than any of his peers about climate change. And who knows roughly twenty times as much about climate and energy economics as anyone else in power. He may turn out to be a truly crucial figure in the fight to turn the climate tide.

Highlight

A year later, wearing a tux and speaking at an opulent dinner to the “names” who run the premier insurance brokerage Lloyds of London, Carney went further, giving one of the most important speeches of the climate era. It is well worth reading in its entirety, but here is the crucial section

Climate change is the Tragedy of the Horizon.

We don’t need an army of actuaries to tell us that the catastrophic impacts of climate change will be felt beyond the traditional horizons of most actors – imposing a cost on future generations that the current generation has no direct incentive to fix.

That means beyond: - the business cycle; - the political cycle; and - the horizon of technocratic authorities, like central banks, who are bound by their mandates.

The horizon for monetary policy extends out to 2-3 years. For financial stability it is a bit longer, but typically only to the outer boundaries of the credit cycle – about a decade.

In other words, once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late.

And so, as Politico put it, Joyce received a “shrug.”

Joyce’s speech was met with silence. The “awkward but unanimous” moment was “telling,” said one European official who was in the room.

Responding to Joyce’s comments, U.K. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband told POLITICO: “I think overall, I would say that the general tenor of these discussions indicates where people are going, which is toward a clean energy transition.”

Full article: Canada Rebukes Trump—But That May Just Be the Start of Mark Carney's Role in History

Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social

With the first four months of the year now available, I estimate that 2025 is most likely to be the second warmest year on record at 1.52C in ERA5, with a ~8% chance of beating 2024 as the warmest and a ~25% chance of coming in at the third warmest after 2023: @hausfath.bsky.social on Bluesky

Copernicus – April 2025 was the 2^nd warmest April recorded and April was also 1.51°C warmer than an estimate of the pre-industrial April average for 1850-1900.

Copernicus

Michael E. Mann @michaelemann.bsky.social

Well we're where the models say we should be. Which is bad enough. The models indicate that warming stops when emissions reach zero. So we've got to get off fossil fuels as quickly as possible. In that sense, it's very simple! @michaelemann.bsky.social on Bluesky

Zack Labe @zacklabe.com

Some pretty unusual warmth (for this time of year) stretching across the northernmost portions of the #Arctic Ocean this weekend. Definitely not ideal as we move into the melt season... @zacklabe.com on Bluesky

Dutch climate campaigners vow to take Shell to court again

In a letter, Milieudefensie says it wants to stop firm developing new oil and gas projects to curb crisis

Climate campaigners in the Netherlands have promised to take Shell to court for a second time to force the energy company to stop developing new oil and gas projects.

In a letter to Shell, the Dutch climate non-profit Milieudefensie vowed to take legal action because the company has 700 oil and gas projects in development that will continue to drive up carbon emissions despite efforts to slow global heating.

It revealed its plan to return to the Dutch courts six months after the oil company successfully overturned a ruling in favour of the green group that called on Shell to reduce its emissions.

It is currently waiting for a ruling from the Netherlands supreme court on the case in which Milieudefensie argued that Shell should reduce its emissions by 45% in line with the Paris climate agreement.

Chinese ‘kill switches’ found in US solar farms


Ed Miliband under pressure to pause green energy blitz after hidden components discovered


Chinese “kill switches” have been found hidden in American solar farms, prompting calls for Ed Miliband to halt the rollout of renewables.


On Thursday, the Energy Secretary was urged to impose an “immediate pause” on his green energy blitz to review whether UK solar plants are also at risk.


The components found in the US included cellular radios capable of switching off the equipment remotely, raising serious concerns about grid security, according to Reuters.


They were found inside power inverters manufactured by unnamed Chinese companies.


Power inverters are the key links between solar or wind farms and the rest of the power system, converting their electricity so the wider grid can use it.


One source told Reuters that compromising such equipment would give Beijing the ability to inflict blackouts on the West, claiming it would create “a built-in way to physically destroy the grid”.




China has dismissed the claims as a smear. But the discovery has sounded alarm bells within the US government and is likely to prompt a similar scramble in Britain.


Andrew Bowie, the shadow energy minister, on Thursday said the “worrying revelations” should spark serious concern for Mr Miliband and called for an urgent investigation.


He said: “We were already aware of concerns being raised by the Ministry of Defence and the security and intelligence services surrounding possible monitoring technology on Chinese-built wind turbines – but given the dominance of China in solar, these developments are equally if not even more worrying.


“Ed Miliband’s Made in China transition – clean power at the expense of everything else – is a threat to our national security and makes a mockery of his claims on energy security.


“It is essential that an immediate pause and review is carried out to ensure the safety and security of our energy system.”


One industry source on Thursday said that British solar farms used inverters from a variety of sources, including Chinese, American, German and Israeli suppliers.


A UK government spokesman said: “We would never let anything get in the way of our national security, and while we would not comment on individual cases, our energy sector is subject to the highest levels of national security scrutiny.”


Chris Hewett, chief executive of Solar Energy UK, a trade association, said: “If any of these inverters are present in the UK, which has not yet been established – and if the allegations prove true – they could be replaced rapidly.


“It should also be stressed that solar energy is helping to wean the UK off reliance on fossil fuels from unstable regimes, improving our energy security and lowering costs.”


China’s solar power push


Chinese companies dominate the market for power inverters, as well as batteries and solar panels, with their equipment widely used around the world.


That had prompted concerns in some quarters, with China’s involvement in UK energy infrastructure already under scrutiny.


According to research by Wood Mackenzie, Chinese firms account for half of all solar power inverters in the world.


Two companies, Huawei and Sungrow, together controlled more than half of the market in 2023.


The European Solar Manufacturing Council estimates that more than 200 gigawatts (GW) of European solar power capacity relies on inverters made in China – the equivalent of 200 nuclear power plants.


“This means Europe has effectively surrendered remote control of a vast portion of its electricity infrastructure,” said Christoph Podewils, the industry group’s secretary general.


Being able to control just 3GW to 4GW of capacity has the potential to wreak havoc across the Continent.


The recent blackouts in Spain and Portugal are thought to have begun following the loss of just 2GW of generation capacity.


A blackout in a restaurant in Madrid last month

The recent blackouts in Spain and Portugal are thought to have begun following the loss of just 2GW of generation capacity Credit: Borja Sanchez-Trillo/Shutterstock
Philipp Schroeder, chief executive of German solar developer 1Komma5, told Reuters: “Ten years ago, if you switched off the Chinese inverters, it would not have caused a dramatic thing to happen to European grids, but now the critical mass is much larger.”


Chinese-made inverters in the US were switched off remotely in November, Reuters said, prompting a row between a Texas-based company and its supplier, Zhejiang-based Deye.


It is not clear whether that incident was related to the discovery of hidden parts and there was no suggestion of wrongdoing by Deye.


The US department of energy was aware of both issues but had not previously disclosed them publicly.


A spokesman said the revelations did not necessarily suggest “malicious intent”, but added: “It is critical for those procuring to have a full understanding of the capabilities of the products received.”


Utility firms in the US are now said to be bracing for a ban on Chinese-made equipment in grid infrastructure, echoing restrictions previously imposed on telecoms equipment manufactured by Huawei over spying concerns.


Huawei has always denied it poses a security threat.


Earlier this year, Ministry of Defence officials were revealed to have also flagged concerns about a Chinese firm, Mingyang Smart Energy, which has been contracted to provide turbines to the Green Volt wind farm off the coast of Scotland.


The deal would give Chinese engineers “a legitimate excuse to visit at any time” for maintenance, officials said, prompting fears they could use the access to install devices used to spy on Britain or tamper with equipment.

Access Denied

^Really? The Telegraph?

Bit late

Citing national security concerns, two U.S. Senators introduced the Decoupling from Foreign Adversarial Battery Dependence Act in February 2025. This action prohibited the Department of Homeland Security from procuring batteries from some Chinese entities, effective October 2027.


________


By the way, I have a nice renewable thread here at TD.

Fossil Fuel Alternatives

NOAA April 2025 was the 2nd warmest April recorded

NOAA

April storms that killed 24 in US made more severe by burning fossil fuels – study

Study finds human-caused climate change made four-day rainfall across central Mississippi valley 40% more likely

The four-day historic storm that caused death and destruction across the central Mississippi valley in early April was made significantly more likely and more severe by burning fossil fuels, rapid analysis by a coalition of leading climate scientists has found.

Record quantities of rain were dumped across eight southern and midwestern states between 3 and 6 April, causing widespread catastrophic flooding that killed at least 15 people, inundated crops, wrecked homes, swept away vehicles and caused power outages for hundreds of thousands of households.

The floods were caused by rainfall made about 9% more intense and 40% more likely by human-caused climate change, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) study found. Uncertainty in models means the role of the climate crisis was probably even higher.

Another nine people died as a result of tornadoes and strong winds, and the economic damages have been estimated to be between $80bn and $90bn.

The record rainfall was driven in large part by warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico that fed the storm moisture that it dropped across Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. Overall, the human-caused climate crisis made surface sea temperatures 2.2F (1.2C) hotter, and such ocean conditions are now 14 times more likely compared with in a cooler, pre-industrial world, the study found.

6,874 posts.

George as usual is spot on.