Israeli Palestinian peace summit at Annapolis

[sabang]

They are sitting down to hold talks again in about five weeks, and of course we all know what happened to previous peace summits. Will this one be any different?

The following quotes are from Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
PA hardens demands ahead of peace summit - Haaretz - Israel News

PA hardens demands ahead of peace summit

Israel is concerned over a hardening of Palestinian positions ahead of the first meeting, to be held on Tuesday, of the Israeli and Palestinian negotiating teams working on a joint statement before November's regional peace conference.

A senior government official close to the talks between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas said "the real gaps between the parties will be revealed for the first time" at the meeting.

The official also said that the groups advising Abbas, particularly the Negotiations Support Unit (NSU) headed by Saeb Erekat and composed of Palestinian and other Arab legal experts born or educated in the U.S. or Europe, are hardening their stances ahead of the conference.

Israel sees the NSU as a "diplomatic elite unit" responsible for the opinion handed down by the International Court of Justice in The Hague that the separation fence violates international law.

A senior official said the NSU is presenting Abbas with position papers demanding a schedule for progress following November's regional conference in Washington. The NSU also opposes dividing Jerusalem based on demographic considerations and insists on a division based on the 1967 borders. "This is a non-starter" the official said.

However, Abbas told U.S. media outlets recently that the Palestinian Authority would not agree to the Clinton plan ceding to it 92 percent of the West Bank and would insist on full Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 lines.
The Palestinians have been pressing a reluctant Israel to discuss in depth matters at the core of any future agreement on Palestinian statehood - the shape of final borders and the fate of Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees. Israel is pursuing a vaguer track, and has said hopes the conference will yield only a "declaration of principles."

"Israel's main message to the Arab countries is that it is their duty to support and encourage moderate Palestinians without demands and preconditions," Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni told Haaretz Saturday. "We are telling the Arabs, 'if they [the Palestinians] want to compromise, don't judge them."

He said representatives of the Quartet, the Arab League, the permanent members of the UN Security Council and the G8 would attend the conference, which he said would open on November 15. Abbas also said he hoped to reach agreement with Israel on a document ahead of the talks that would include clear principles.

Saudi Arabia does not have ties with Israel, but has proposed a sweeping peace plan endorsed by the Arab League that offers full recognition of Israel in exchange for a total withdrawal from lands it captured in the 1967 Six-Day War and the creation of a Palestinian state.

Could this summit finally put Palestine back on track for statehood? Too early to say, but some early signs are encouraging. Any views, news & reviews, post them here.

[sabang]

From The Jerusalem Post
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1191257257895&pagename=JPost%2FJPArt icle%2FShowFull

"Otte: Annapolis failure would cost more than in 2000

A failure to advance the peace process at next month's conference in Annapolis could trigger worse violence than the second intifada that followed the failed Camp David talks in 2000, Marc Otte, the EU's Special Representative to the Middle East Process, said Monday.


There were many more destabilizing elements in the Middle East now than there were seven years ago, he said.
Among those he listed were the threat of a nuclear Iran, the danger that Iraq would split, the strengthening of Hizbullah in Lebanon and the Hamas takeover of Gaza.


"How long has it been since an Israeli and a Palestinian leader have come to an agreement, even if they are rather vague [with details], even if it is just the parameters for solving the conflict," Otte said.
Such a statement might "look modest, but given what happened in the last six years it would be quite an achievement," he said.
Adel Atieh, an adviser to the Palestinian delegation to the EU, said that such a statement could announce an agreement by both sides that a Palestinian state would be established in the West Bank, the principles of any potential land swap and a timetable for implementation. "


Meanwhile, the predictable people are saying the predictable things. Netanyahu and his Rightist clique are saying the talks should not be held. So Is Hamas, and calling on Arab nations to boycott the talks. The partition of Jerusalem has even been raised as a possibility by some politicians- an emotional issue to all parties.

I agree with the EU envoy- the price of failure of this summit will be high, and there will be plenty trying to achieve just that from the sidelines. In the main, the Israeli government seems to be acting in good faith so far. Mild optimism at this point.

The peace talks have been postponed to late November BTW.

[Hootad Binky]

Bush, Olmert, Abbas: three lame ducks without a mandate. Result: failure! Again.

[keda]

None of the three mentioned have anything to do with the success or failure of this latest round of talks...replace those names with any of your choosing, and you will end up with the same conclusion.

[Hootad Binky]

Failure.

[sabang]

"The United States sees the establishment of a Palestinian state and a two-state solution as absolutely essential for the future, not just of Palestinians and Israelis but also for the Middle East and indeed to American interests," Rice said. "That's really a message that I think only I can deliver," she added.

Mr Beilin wrote in Ynet earlier this week: "Continued declarations of a "united Jerusalem" are just empty slogans in a de facto divided Jerusalem. It's time to remove the mask and to act according to real Israeli interests: Namely, to reach a final status agreement that would allow the Palestinians to found a state alongside Israel with its capital in East Jerusalem."

Jerusalem is ours, warns Likud - Independent Online Edition > Middle East

The right wing Israeli secular & religious parties are still trying to sabotage the Annapolis Conference, the USA seems to have a lot invested in it.

[sabang]

"Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, has for the first time set down a timetable for peace with the Palestinians saying he wanted agreement before the end of 2008.
Though he cautioned that any agreement would take longer to put in place, and depend upon fulfilling all conditions of the 2003 “road map” for peace, it was the first time the Israeli leader has set such a clear timeline.
But in Israel and the Palestinian territories there are limited expectations of progress.
A new poll from Ramallah-based Near East Consulting suggested that while 71 per cent of those asked supported Palestinian participation in Annapolis, only 43 per cent think it will lead to progress in the peace process.
On the Israeli side, attitudes are similarly sceptical: last month's Peace Index conducted out of Tel Aviv University found 50 per cent of Jewish Israelis polled thought Annapolis would not yield a basic clarification of disputes between the two sides, and just 40 per cent thought it could significantly advance the chance of a permanent peace agreement."

Israel sets timeline for peace with Palestinians - Times Online

[Texpat]

So many pessimists on the forum.
Just because Jews and Arabs have been slitting each others' throats for 6000 years doesn't mean the saavy, clever and likable George Dubya can't weave a love bond between them.

With a record of 0-400, it's easy to predict failure.

[barbaro]

So many pessimists on the forum.
Just because Jews and Arabs have been slitting each others' throats for 6000 years doesn't mean the saavy, clever and likable George Dubya can't weave a love bond between them.

For 6000 years? Can you back this up. What about the Romans?

With a record of 0-400, it's easy to predict failure.

Unfortunately, I am skeptical of a deal, if any, that will have any meaning. This is issue is so complex, and there are so many different interests and factions within each of these "sides," that I am, to repeat, skeptical.

[Texpat]

(used as a euphamism for a very long time)

[barbaro]

(used as a euphamism for a very long time)

It's also inaccurate.

As well as the euphemism of "they've been fighting for 2,000 years."

Totally false.

It started with Theodor Herzl near the turn of the century and began in earnest in the late 1940s with the UN "partition" of Palestine.

[sabang]

Actually the Pali's & Joo's have historically had quite a harmonious relationship. That all went to shit in the last century.

All the work towards the summit seems to be happening behind the scenes at the moment, which ain't bad. We'll see.

[Texpat]

Worth noting my figure of 0-400 is not technically accurate either.
Depending on how you look at it, summits are probably more like 0-100.
Lesser attempts at reconciliation are more like 0-61,345.

[barbaro]

Worth noting my figure of 0-400 is not technically accurate either.
Depending on how you look at it, summits are probably more like 0-100.
Lesser attempts at reconciliation are more like 0-61,345.

Over 60 years?

Any specific?

Any agreements that helped a little?

Camp David Accords (with Egypt) in 1979?

Oslo Agreement in 1994 (which many don't like)

[sabang]

It is encouraging to see that the Israeli PM and media do not seem as pessimistic as some of us here. From Haaretz newspaper, 23/11/07.

Olmert: Keeping the status quo endangers Israel

"I have concluded that we cannot maintain the status quo between us and the Palestinians," Olmert said yesterday. "We have spent too much time dealing with the status quo but it will lead to results that are much worse than those of a failed conference. It will result in Hamas taking over Judea and Samaria, to a weakening or even the disappearance of the moderate Palestinians. Unless a political horizon can be found, the results will be deadly."

Olmert added, "The gap is such that intensive negotiations will be able to narrow them to the point of formulating an agreement."

According to an Egyptian government spokesman, the American invitation to the Annapolis summit is based on the principle "of land for peace and the Arab League peace initiative."

Olmert: Keeping the status quo endangers Israel - Haaretz - Israel News

[AntRobertson]

It started with Theodor Herzl near the turn of the century and began in earnest in the late 1940s with the UN "partition" of Palestine.

The Balfour Declaration. Nothing to do with the UN, wasn't in existence at that time. It was our British friends. Yep, blame the Brits!*








*It helps to ignore the mandate from the League of Nations if you do this.

[keda]

Land is tangible, peace is not and will last only until some follower of the most Compassionate and Merciful raises the flag for more of the same. Scoff away, blame the Israelites if it makes you feel better, but that's the way it's been to date and no reason to believe anything other than the names and faces might be different this time around.

[AntRobertson]

Scoff away, blame the Israelites if it makes you feel better

Does scoffing away and blaming the Palestinians make you feel any better?

[sabang]

The Pali's are actually a pretty secular bunch, not particularly prone to Islamic Fundamentalist extremism. Theirs is a struggle for territory and self determination. It is the current situation that drives them towards extremism, as moderate Israeli's well know.

On a basic level, an agreement in Palestine would represent a blow to the Extremists like Al Qaeda, and no doubt more than a few Saudi's. There are still quite a few people on both sides of the divide that would love to sabotage the peace process, unfortunately.

[barbaro]

It started with Theodor Herzl near the turn of the century and began in earnest in the late 1940s with the UN "partition" of Palestine.

The Balfour Declaration. Nothing to do with the UN, wasn't in existence at that time. It was our British friends. Yep, blame the Brits!*

Thanks for the reminder, Ant.

I used to know many of the fine details, and even researched this issue at Uni. many moons ago. Over time, I've lost the details.

But there was that first UN resolution after the Balfour Declaration. I'm too lazy to go and look it up. Frankly, this issue is a bit depressing. I don't see an end to it.

[AntRobertson]

^No probs, truth is the extent of my recollection is pretty much limited to connecting 'Balfour Declaration' with the British and the League of Nations.

Frankly, this issue is a bit depressing. I don't see an end to it.

Sadly, I'd have to agree with you on that.

[barbaro]

Israeli Jews have often referred to this as the "demographic problem." Any opinions on this concept, and also, the likelyhood of a two-state solution?

Olmert warns of 'end of Israel'

Mr Bush wants a Middle East peace deal by the end of 2008

Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said failure to negotiate a two-state solution with the Palestinians would spell the end of the State of Israel. He warned of a "South African-style struggle" which Israel would lose if a Palestinian state was not established.
Mr Olmert was returning from the Annapolis conference in the US where he and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas pledged to launch formal peace talks.
The two leaders set a goal of reaching a peace deal with US support in 2008.
If the two-state solution collapses, and we face a South African-style struggle for equal voting rights, then the State of Israel is finished


Ehud Olmert



Reactions to Annapolis

US President George W Bush called Annapolis, the first substantive Arab-Israeli peace talks in seven years, a "hopeful beginning" for Mid-East peace.
Mr Olmert said it was not the first time he had articulated his fears about the demographic threat to Israel as a Jewish state from a faster growing Palestinian population.

Link: BBC NEWS | Middle East | Olmert warns of 'end of Israel'

[Jet Gorgon]

The only way they'll make peace is if they have a common enemy, like Martians.

[machangezi]

Israeli Palestinian peace summit at Annapolis

Seen tens of such summits. Nothing is gonna change/happen. It's just a way to spend tax payers' money. IMO, there will be no peace there.

[raycarey]

peace will come when the israelis go elsewhere.