The 2024 US Presidential Election Discussion thread

[beachbound]

not drunk mate, but....you'll always be an idiot. I do wonder just what kind of moron employed you, then i realise you worked in the ME so they just took any idiot, seen them go and seen the go, quite funny you "working" there 55555555

You really should’ve stuck with the drunk excuse.

[harrybarracuda]

not drunk mate, but....you'll always be an idiot. I do wonder just what kind of moron employed you, then i realise you worked in the ME so they just took any idiot, seen them go and seen the go, quite funny you "working" there 55555555

What a silly drunk c u n t you are.

Go to bed if you haven't passed out already.

[harrybarracuda]

Looks like the even the networks have got election fatigue.

CNN aren't showing Kamala's rally, and Fox aren't bothering with the orange turd's.

Only MSNBC and OANN are rabid enough to keep at it.

[Troy]

Just a couple more days to go and Trump is still the bookie's favourite. Not only that, but Trump is leading the polls in 5 of the 7 swing states.

2025 is not going to be a good year!

Deciding whether to pack my bags and retire for good. Thailand is starting to come tops in the sanity stakes...

[harrybarracuda]

Just a couple more days to go and Trump is still the bookie's favourite. Not only that, but Trump is leading the polls in 5 of the 7 swing states.

2025 is not going to be a good year!

Deciding whether to pack my bags and retire for good. Thailand is starting to come tops in the sanity stakes...

I don't worry that much.

There are too many polls that are such egregious outliers, it's quite obvious that they're rigged.

[misskit]

I still think Kamala will win. What is happening in Iowa will be happening all over the USA!


Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day

Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.


A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.


The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.


Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

MORE Your browser is not supported | desmoinesregister.com

[Switch]

Just a couple more days to go and Trump is still the bookie's favourite. Not only that, but Trump is leading the polls in 5 of the 7 swing states.

2025 is not going to be a good year!

Deciding whether to pack my bags and retire for good. Thailand is starting to come tops in the sanity stakes...

I reckon Trump has convinced himself and the bookies that he could win it.

I hope I’m wrong!

[Stumpy]

What's whack here is that Trumps right wing extremist nutters have already spouted that if Trump loses that the planned events they do will make the last insurrection look like nothing. I mean JFC. And what's worse..... Trump should come on TV and tell those nutters while he appreciates the support, that it is not the right thing to do to make America great again as he spews.

Trump doesn't give a shit about America. He cares about power and money. He wants those nutters to go crazy.

[harrybarracuda]

The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

Any woman who would vote for a certified rapist and sex offender needs their head examined.

Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: fucking thickos

FTFY.

[harrybarracuda]

Trump pretending to give the mic a blow job really should give the trumpanzees a clue that he's a cocksucker, but they'll still vote for him.

[39TG]

As the Dems have been saying, Trump is weird

[Shutree]

Just a couple more days to go and Trump is still the bookie's favourite.

This is interesting. My first instinct was that the bookies tend to be ahead of us on such things.
Then I was reading about some US academic who always runs a small, controlled, book on elections. From memory his exercise is limited to a total of USD60K and no single bet could exceed USD500. He has studied the correlations between bets and presidential winners. (I should have kept his name. I didn't.) He was puzzled why his was the only place where the betting was for Harris. He made a point that the odds at big bookmakers can swing with a few very large bets. So I am not certain now that the bookies have their odds right. We shall see.

[bsnub]

The anxiety level is high right now, and it will get worse over these next two days. Democracy is at stake.

[nidhogg]

Watching Michelle Obama at a rally. Powerful stuff.

[nidhogg]

Obama was a brilliant orator. Michelle might be a tad better.

[david44]

He made a point that the odds at big bookmakers can swing with a few very large bets. So I am not certain now that the bookies have their odds right. We shall see.

I am not a punter but bookies have no interest in the outcome other than their overound/profit is guaranteed , therefor they balance the odds to reflect bets made/risk taken, derivitives/Swop sand forex futures use similar game theory.

A very simple model from probability theory or roulette etc where the exact outcomes likelihood can be forecast.

For example for every $100 wagered on a coin toss I promise to pay out $45 on heads or $45 on tails , ensuring my win .In real life comuters are used today but old time race course bookies could do it in their heads in real time and as the old saying about dentists applies, you seldom see a bookie riding a bike.

One of the few times the house has no edge, as it doesn't exist is two up toss of 3 coins , a common pub sport allowed but once a year in Australia on ANZAC memorial day at many Gallipoli and RSLs.A fun day in memory of the diggers.

.

Driving here is high risk enough for me in land of snakes, potholes, mudslides drunk golakeepers/oathkeeprs, drivers coups and of course angry birds

[Switch]

^ I know bookies lay off big money bets to cover losses. Hoping they have it wrong this time.

The richest man in the world can afford it. ��

[Norton]

What's whack here is that Trumps right wing extremist nutters have already spouted that if Trump loses that the planned events they do will make the last insurrection look like nothing

Like their messiah Mr. Bonespurs they are cowards. Unlike the 2020 election police forces across the nation will be out in force to make sure there will be no repeat of Jan 6, 2021.

Hope Trump refuses to leave the White House as a loser and cops arrest and throw the PoS in the slammer. You can bet the majority of Congressional Republicans will dump Trump if he tries his rigged election bullshit again.

If Trump loses, he is in deep shit and he knows it. He could well face financial ruin and a bit of jail time.

[misskit]

^^ The odds for Trump are changing.

Trump Plummets in Election Betting Odds After Shock Poll Shows Him Losing Iowa to Harris

Election prediction markets tilted heavily towards Vice President Kamala Harris overnight after a bombshell poll released Saturday showed her ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa.


A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found the Democratic nominee three points up on her GOP opponent, 47% to 44%, among likely voters.

The survey was conducted by the highly regarded pollster Ann Selzer, who has a long track record of producing results that uncannily mirror final election tallies.


“It is incredibly gutsy to release this poll,” said Nate Silver, the statistician and elections data guru, in a tweet. “It won’t put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump. But wouldn’t want to play poker against Ann Selzer.”


Selzer’s stature—coupled with the prevailing wisdom that Iowa, which he carried in 2016 and 2020, should be a safe state for Trump—was enough to send betting markets, which have largely favored Trump, into a frenzied correction.


Kalshi gave Trump a 55 percent chance of winning on Saturday, but that had fallen to 50 percent early Sunday morning in a dead heat with Harris.

MORE Trump Plummets in Election Betting Odds After Shock Poll Shows Him Losing Iowa to Harris

[Stumpy]

The anxiety level is high right now, and it will get worse over these next two days. Democracy is at stake.

I am here like you Snubs. The rhetoric has increased to all new levels. My gut tells me that Harris is ahead. Trumps band of Kool-Aid drinking knuckleheads are getting nervous.

[39TG]

Sleepy Joe knows what he needs to do if Trump loses. He'll have the government ready to rumble against the insurrectionists. If we're lucky, Bannon and Navaro will do some more time.

[Joe 90]

Trumps dropped a bollock on Abortion, a hot potato of a topic in Sceptic politics. Fvvk knows why!

[cyrille]

Because lots of Trump nutters are god squad nutters, obviously.

[Switch]

Trumps dropped a bollock on Abortion, a hot potato of a topic in Sceptic politics. Fvvk knows why!

Could it be that 50% of the possible electorate are women? Wives, daughters, mothers and grandmothers, who have been able to exercise control over their bodies for the last 50 years. Now it’s down to the states, many of them have had that choice removed.

[harrybarracuda]

Hope Trump refuses to leave the White House as a loser and cops arrest and throw the PoS in the slammer.

Erm....