Why the win was so important.
A loss for Jair Bolsonaro in the upcoming Brazilian presidential election could lead to Amazon deforestation in his nation falling by 89% over the next decade, according to new analysis conducted for Carbon Brief.
A victory for left-wing challenger and current frontrunner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – commonly known as Lula – could avoid 75,960km2 of Amazon rainforest loss by 2030, the analysis shows – an area roughly the size of Panama. This would also significantly curb Brazil’s emissions when accompanied by a new focus on forest restoration.
This assumes that Lula would follow through on a pledge to address illegal deforestation in the Amazon, in line with his previous presidency, while Bolsonaro would continue to oversee weak environmental governance that allows such activities to continue. It also assumes these conditions would remain the same out to 2030.
The analysis, by researchers at the University of Oxford, the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) and the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), models the implementation of Brazil’s Forest Code, the country’s flagship legislation for tackling deforestation in the Amazon and other ecosystems.
There are many factors that could influence the future of the Amazon, but the results highlight the impact that enforcing environmental legislation could have after years of neglect under Brazil’s current right-wing leader.
Amazon election
Brazil is the world’s sixth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, largely due to the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from deforestation and the methane from cattle pastures on cleared land. Its land-use emissions also make it the fourth-largest historical emitter.
By far the main driver of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is beef production, with soybeans for animal feed a distant second. The nation is the largest beef exporter in the world, primarily serving markets in China and the US.
All of this gives global significance to the Brazilian government’s approach to deforestation and big agribusiness expansion.
For the past four years since his election, right-wing president Bolsonaro has weakened existing environmental protections and legitimised illegal activity. As the chart below shows, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has increased since he took power, wiping out 34,018km2 of rainforest, an area larger than Belgium, in his first three years.
This is because, despite pledging to end illegal deforestation by 2030, in reality the president has thrown his support behind the nation’s powerful agricultural sector, allowing them to operate without restrictions and spread into Indigenous lands.
In contrast, between 2003 and 2010, when Lula was last president, deforestation in the Amazon fell by around three-quarters from a peak in 2004. Forest loss remained low under his fellow Workers’ Party politician Dilma Rouseff, who held the presidency until she was removed from office in 2016.
Lula, who is Bolsonaro’s main challenger in the upcoming presidential election after a spell in prison on controversial corruption charges, has published a manifesto referencing this past success. It notes that:
“In our governments, we have reduced deforestation by almost 80% in the Amazon, the largest contribution ever made by a country to mitigate climate change between 2004 and 2012.”
It adds that Lula intends to repeat these achievements, while mentioning plans to tackle illegal deforestation and invest in forest restoration.
With Brazil heading to the polls on 2 October, there are signs that a victory for Lula could see a reversal of the downward trend in environmental standards that has marked Bolsonaro’s time in office.