Thread: Potential Efforts to Reboot Afghanistan

Can a Pragmatic Relationship With the Taliban Help Russia Counter Terrorism?

September 3, 2021




Neither the United States nor Russia wants to see Afghanistan become a haven for international terrorist groups. For now, Russia is taking a pragmatic approach to the Taliban in that it has a relationship with the group that the United States does not.


by Dara Massicot


"Much of the discussion on the geopolitical implications of the former Afghan government’s recent collapse has focused on what China may do next. However, Russia is the active regional influencer in the unfolding crisis, given its decades-old experience and networks in Afghanistan. In the weeks and months ahead, Russia can apply its diplomatic, intelligence, and military tools to prevent the spread of instability beyond Afghanistan. Some of Russia’s choices may conflict with U.S. goals for Afghanistan, but there are areas of alignment.

Russia’s Goals for Afghanistan

For many years, Russian officials predicted that the former Afghan government and its Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) would likely collapse without U.S. support. In 2017 Russia’s special representative to Afghanistan noted that “a whole set of factors makes the ANSF incapable of putting up resistance to the armed opposition on their own” and that a rapid U.S. pullout would likely prompt an unraveling of key institutions.

Moscow has spent the last few years developing a relationship with the Taliban and bolstering its force posture in Central Asia. Even though Moscow may not be surprised that the former Afghan government collapsed, the Kremlin considers the current situation to be dangerous. On August 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the growth of terrorist groups in Afghanistan is a “direct threat to our country, our allies.” He also clarified that Russia will not militarily involve itself in Afghanistan again, saying that “the former Soviet Union has its own experience in that country. We have learned the lesson.”

Moscow has two core interests related to Afghanistan: supporting its Central Asian allies during the regional instability that is likely to come and preventing international terrorism from spreading to the Russian homeland.

Nikolai Patrushev, chair of the Russian Security Council, outlined Russia’s immediate goals for Afghanistan in August:

1) controlling migration flows from Afghanistan to Central Asia and Russia,

2) protecting Central Asia from terrorists pretending to be refugees,

3) preventing the spread of radical ideology beyond the borders of Afghanistan, and

4) protecting against arms smuggling and drug trafficking.

Other goals articulated by senior Russian officials include preventing the United States from unilaterally negotiating military base access with Central Asian states and avoiding involvement in a military conflict in Afghanistan."

Continues, in depth, with additional chapters such as

Russia’s Networks in Afghanistan

Russia’s Intelligence, Security Service, and Military Options for Afghanistan

Intelligence support to the Taliban regarding terrorist groups inside Afghanistan.

Border security and humanitarian relief for Central Asia.

Use of Russian mercenaries or Special Forces inside Afghanistan.

Bolstering counterterrorism efforts inside Russia.

Military support for Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

What resources could Russia bring to limited military operations in Afghanistan

Russia’s Possible Next Steps and Implications for the United States

....

at:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature...rrorism-193101

The article's writer:

Dara Massicot




Senior Policy Researcher

Washington Office

Education

:M.A. in national security and strategic studies, U.S. Naval War College ; B.A. in Russian language and literature, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; B.A. in peace, war, and defense, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Dara Massicot is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Before joining RAND, she served as a senior analyst for Russian military capabilities at the Department of Defense.

Her work at RAND focuses on defense and security issues in Russia and Eurasia. She specializes in Russian military strategy, combat operations, and power projection, as well as Russian military modernization and escalation dynamics.

Her interests include force posture, force planning, and grand strategy. She is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program."