Thread: Brexit - It's Still On!

Originally Posted by cyrille

A further 5% drop for sterling predicted in the event of you-know-what.

Last one out - switch off the lights.

The auspices on aWTO exit suggest 8% but as the chaos unfolds then another 5% but of course the capacity for utter stupidity by BoJo could mean worse is to come.

Those Brits who are not married to a Thai but are reliant on retiree extensions for their stay in LoS will certainly be sweating on this.

Originally Posted by Troy

Interesting thought but not one that I entirely agree.

This has been the strangest few years of my life. I shall be happy when everything settles down and the future is clearer.

I suspect the next few years will be stranger than whatever prompted that post, more volatile, less democratic and far less free than EU cheerleaders expected.

For now, their mission is to sidestep Poland and Hungary's legal and rightful veto of the budget by invalidating their votes, either temporary or indefinite, which kills several birds by reinforcing the message to other small fry that might be looking up dissent, peanuts from the 'virus' slush fund for these two unless they change their ways, kick off a media charm offensive ostensibly to woo the populace with the underlying intent of regime change, and move quickly toward binding agreements by its members aimed at closer and then full union. This in essence is the content of Soros' open letter to the EU, get it done no matter how; it is also how the EU works, with a pathological dislike of challengers, which is why nothing will change in Brussels or Berlin until the big pop.

And something for our noisier critics to choke on: long before the big pop btc will leave $30k in a cloud of dust, almost certainly next year, and where it goes from there depends on how proudly madder our mad world goes.

Last one out - switch off the lights.

here we go.

in between taking the knee at every opportunity and cheering on corbyn and abbot as they fete the ira and attempt to prevent the removal of convicted foreign rapists and murderers from the uk the usual gang of hate filled self loathing pseudo socialists watch with glee and hope for the worst as they trouser their tax free dollars.

a few months of wto trading will certainly concentrate the minds of m. micron as his belligerent fishermen, farmers and fromagiers kick off and normal service will soon be resumed.

and s.a, a merry xmas to you and yours and btw, how are the plans for that relocation to portugal going? did your hong kong buyers ever stump up the readies?

Thought I might try and work out what on earth jabir's wittering on about but then thought...nah.





Why a no-deal Brexit will be sh*t for the Premier League

Originally Posted by cyrille

A further 5% drop for sterling predicted

A link to that prediction would be appreciated.

^ Are you serious? Plenty of negative predictions out there...

https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-to-drop-5-on-a-no-deal-brexit-bloomberg-survey/


Other reports are suggesting 6-8% and 10% drops if no-deal is announced tomorrow although there are other reports that the effect will not be so drastic.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

A link to that prediction would be appreciated.

Wake up!

The Financial Times writes:
The currency

The first impact — which is likely to precede the January 1st, 2021 departure date — is a sharp fall in the value of the pound. At its most extreme, analysts predict it could lose more than a fifth of its current value against both the dollar and the euro if talks break down irrevocably.

Opinions differ on how low sterling could go. Jordan Rochester, a currency strategist at Nomura in London, predicts the pound could sink to near parity with the dollar, while Paul Robson, head of G10 currency strategy at NatWest Markets, is more optimistic, betting the pound may fall “to the low $1.20s”.


Morgan Stanley about the stock market:

FTSE 250 to plunge 10% on no-deal Brexit

Morgan Stanley has warned that the domestically-focused FTSE 250 could tumble by as much as 10% if the UK crashed out of the EU without a deal at the end of December.
The impact would be even worse for UK-listed banks, which are expected to plunge between 10-20%, due to fears that the Bank of England could introduce negative interest rates to try encourage lending and spending across the country.

But the truly frightening thing about all this is the British PM declaring a Brexit on WTO terms with no deal will " be wonderful" because " we can do what we like."

He makes Trump look almost statesmanlike.

Originally Posted by taxexile

here we go.

in between taking the knee at every opportunity and cheering on corbyn and abbot as they fete the ira and attempt to prevent the removal of convicted foreign rapists and murderers from the uk the usual gang of hate filled self loathing pseudo socialists watch with glee and hope for the worst as they trouser their tax free dollars.

a few months of wto trading will certainly concentrate the minds of m. micron as his belligerent fishermen, farmers and fromagiers kick off and normal service will soon be resumed.

and s.a, a merry xmas to you and yours and btw, how are the plans for that relocation to portugal going? did your hong kong buyers ever stump up the readies?

I gather he's in some detention camp and his family is preparing his application for the UK as a BNO.

Thank you for the felicitations and same to you and Mrs. Tax.

I think we are here for the duration.

Certainly, Blighty is fast becoming a joke, and a very bad one at that.

The EU’s vainglorious and arrogant behaviour is merely part of its DNA

This psychodrama all boils downs to Brussels’ belief that the nation-state must submit to global oligarchy

JANET DALEY
12 December 2020 • 1:00pm
Janet Daley

By the time you read this, you may know whether we are leaving the EU without a trade deal. Or, then again, you may not. In fact, probably not. Trying to analyse the likelihood of this has become almost entirely a matter of semantics and psychological gaming.

Was Boris Johnson’s broadcast warning of an imminent no-deal, and the blanket briefing by Downing Street that this was – really, really – the last, probably futile, attempt to reach agreement, just another eye-balling feint? Or was it an attempt to prove that we were still trying to be reasonable before we took the leap that everybody had decided was now inevitable? And was the EU threat to give up and walk away, for life or just for this Christmas?

Who knows? We are in the realms of Kremlinology here. The EU actually does seem to believe that since words can mean whatever they choose them to mean, all that is required is enough ambiguity to save everybody’s face. Ursula von der Leyen’s statement last Friday was an almost perfect example of this. Having discovered to its surprise (seriously?) that the EU’s insistence that the UK comply with any future changes in regulation which the EU chooses to adopt, was considered by Britain to breach its sovereignty, she offered a clarification: the UK would not, in fact, “need to follow us every time” the EU alters its policies and standards. Then she added, “They would remain free – sovereign if you will – to decide what they want to do. We would simply set the conditions for access to our market.”

Presumably she thought she was being helpful. Well, she used the word “sovereign” didn’t she? Even if it was with only a half-hearted acknowledgement of its significance and even less of its true meaning. Because what she said did not alter the dynamic at all. What this amounted to was the same threat as before: you can choose to deviate from any future rules we lay down – but it will be at the price of losing access to our market. Isn’t this more or less where we started? Except that now it isn’t an existential threat – just blackmail. The only point of this very subtle alteration seemed to be to make it sound less like vindictive punishment, which could conceivably permit the UK to justify accepting it (which is to say put an acceptable gloss on it).

They obviously don’t get it. Do they understand what the word “sovereign” means? Note: it involves electing the people who make your laws. Did they think we were just spouting grandiose rhetoric which would evaporate under the pressure of mundane economic reality? It must be something like that – otherwise they could never have gone where they went. I remember writing many months ago that I could think of only three kinds of organisation which threatened people who wanted to leave: mafia families, secret societies and religious cults - and that the EU had elements of all three.

This last performance was the mafia bit but it reversed the usual formula: they made us an offer we couldn’t accept - but which we would eventually have to accede to if we wanted life as we knew it to go on. So not only would our infernal British presumption be given its mortifying comeuppance but anybody else in the outfit who was thinking of trying something similar would be scared witless. To have any hope of understanding what is going on, it is essential to remember the founding premise of the EU: the elected governments of member states must be relegated in their authority to the unelected institutions that govern the bloc.

This is not an unfortunate accident: it is fundamental. Nation states - or rather, their volatile, dangerously impressionable populations – cannot be trusted to behave in acceptable ways. Hitler was elected. Mussolini was facilitated into office by legitimate national procedures. Lesson: the peoples of Europe have disgraced themselves in the recent past. They may continue to participate in their own electoral processes but the benign oligarchy of Europe, held in place by structures designed by a wise establishment, will have over-arching power to keep them in check. The prosperity that results from such guaranteed peace and security will be distributed on the assumption of mutual consent.

That was the idea. It didn’t necessarily work out – even within the ranks of consenting members. But the core beliefs remain unreconstructed. One of the most important – and least examined – of these is that competition between nation states is inherently wicked. Cooperation is the key to everything. This is what drives suspicion of Brexiting Britain’s intentions. We might do something to undercut our EU neighbours by say, lowering taxes, cutting business costs, reducing expensive requirements for employment protection, or simply selling our little hearts out in the world market.

Yes indeed – that is what competition is. And it is at the heart of free market economics. It drives the genius of innovation, the courage of entrepreneurialism and it hugely benefits the consumer. It can even liberate the populations of developing countries as it has in much of Africa. But it is the “animal spirit” that is altogether too much like some of the wicked spirits that drove Europe’s twentieth century experience. Since it can encourage envy, unfairness and insecurity, it must be regarded as a potentially destructive force.

That is why it must be replaced by “solidarity” which no one – particularly not a renegade former EU member – can be allowed to endanger. There are awkward contradictions, of course, when the elected national leaders must suppress their own inclinations and even the interests of their own electorates, in order to maintain the group objectives. However much Angela Merkel may regret the intransigence of Emmanuel Macron over fishing, she will not officially dissent – however much this might cost the German car industry.

The ultimate tragedy may be that those very European states so determined not to repeat the tragic moral errors that led to the second World War could be about to commit the mistakes that led to the first one: a vainglorious, arrogant insistence that their own world mission cannot possibly be wrong.

Janet Daley is a 76 year old mad woman writing the same old hysterical claptrap for the Telegraph and I believe took her false teeth out to give BoJo a blowjob when he was scribbling his witterings for the Telegraph.
There is no abnegation of sovereignty in agreeing to a common framework in return for preferential treatment leading to mutual economic betterment.

The silly old hag seems to forget that any fucking free trade agreement confers a mutual loss of sovereignty in return for a fucking dividend.

Seeking Asylum is a 76 year old madman writing the same old hysterical claptrap for teak door

exactly.

The RN make ready some gunboats to protect British waters from EU fishing boats.

Pathetic...

Originally Posted by Troy

Pathetic...

And funny

Now that we lost Trump, I have high hopes for Boris

Originally Posted by Troy

The RN make ready some gunboats to protect British waters from EU fishing boats.

Pathetic...

The British navy have spent years involved in diplomacy on the high seas, from pirates on the east coast of Africa, to drug runners in the Caribbean. They have the experience and fleet of foot to isolate any and all intransigents, be they French, Spanish or Portuguese.

Take your German passport and live by unqualified majority in the EU. You deserve each other.

Originally Posted by Switch

years involved in diplomacy on the high seas

Along with acts of pirating oil tankers on the high seas.

U.K. Marines Seize Supertanker Carrying Iranian Oil to Syria | Time

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Britain is to repel the fishing fleets of nigh on 10 countries numbering several hundred plus vessels as they pursue their industry in territorial waters that has been their right since 1964 in an area that encompasses over 6.8 million square kilometres and they are going to do this with two antiquated coastal protection vessels that were due to be scrapped some years ago, with another two on standby at the naval base,HMS BoJo Bollocks, somewhere near the Humber estuary.

You have copy of the agreement still being finalised this Sunday?

Originally Posted by OhOh

You have copy of the agreement still being finalised this Sunday?

Not needed to arrive at the conclusion outlined of how ridiculous this posturing is.

You colossal ****.

Originally Posted by Switch

The British navy have spent years involved in diplomacy on the high seas, from pirates on the east coast of Africa, to drug runners in the Caribbean. They have the experience and fleet of foot to isolate any and all intransigents, be they French, Spanish or Portuguese.

Take your German passport and live by unqualified majority in the EU. You deserve each other.

Switch is still living in the eighteenth century.

Originally Posted by Troy

Switch is still living in the eighteenth century.

Unfortunately his Georgian English sucks too.

Originally Posted by Switch

They have the experience and fleet of foot...

Comments from tories who were actually deserving of some respect...

Writing in today’s Observer, former deputy prime minister Michael Heseltine says of Brexit and the slide towards no deal: “This government will be – and should be – held responsible for quite simply the worst peacetime decision of modern times. I know personally of members of the cabinet who believe this as firmly as I do. I cannot understand their silence.”


Heseltine adds: “Christmas is upon us and before the country goes back to work we are on our own. Sovereign, in charge, control regained. None of that creates a single job, one pound’s worth of investment or any rise in living standards. We will have risked our trading relationship with the world’s largest market which accounts for nearly half our imports and exports.”


Meanwhile the former Tory party chairman and European commissioner Chris Patten said Johnson was not a Conservative but an “English nationalist”. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today that he feared for the UK’s future when it was finally out of the EU single market, “which we of course helped to build because the main constructor of the single market was Margaret Thatcher”.

Breaking News

Brexit talks will be extended .................................................. ..........again!


Ho! Ho! Ho!


What a freaking joke!

Originally Posted by Troy

Switch is still living in the eighteenth century.

Troy has no idea about RN duties, training and operational commitments in the current orbat. In case you missed it, RN vessels are no longer made from oak.

Originally Posted by Troy

Switch is still living in the eighteenth century.

Troy has no idea about RN duties, training and operational commitments in the current orbat. In case you missed it, RN vessels are no longer made from oak.