U.S. Senatorial Elections 2014

[barbaro]

Nate Silver wrote this article with a user-friendly chart on the coming Senatorial elections in 16 months.

How about your state. Who´s your Senator and are you content with him-her?

GOP has a shot at getting seats. And of course, Nate Silver is worth following.

--

July 15, 2013
Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup
By NATE SILVER

This weekend’s announcement by the former governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, that he would not seek that state’s Democratic nomination for Senate represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber.

The G.O.P.’s task will not be easy: the party holds 46 seats in the Senate, and the number will very probably be cut to 45 after a special election in New Jersey later this year. That means that they would need to win a net of six contests from Democrats in order to control 51 seats and overcome Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s tiebreaking vote. Two years ago at this time, Republicans faced what seemed to be a promising environment and could have won the Senate by gaining a net of three seats from Democrats and winning the presidency. Instead, Mitt Romney lost to President Obama, and the G.O.P. lost a net of two Senate seats.

But Montana along with West Virginia and South Dakota — two other red states where an incumbent Democrat has retired and where the Democrats have not identified a strong candidate to replace them – gives Republicans a running start. Republicans could then win three more seats from among red states like Louisiana and Arkansas, where vulnerable Democratic incumbents are on the ballot, or they could take aim at two purple states, Iowa and Michigan, where Democrats have retired. More opportunities could also come into play if the national environment becomes more favorable to Republicans (such as because of a further slide in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings). Meanwhile, while Kentucky and Georgia are possibly vulnerable, Republicans have few seats of their own to defend; unlike in 2012, they can focus almost entirely on playing offense.

A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.

The chart below reflects our current overview of the Senate landscape, including the probability estimates. (The estimates are not based strictly on a formula but instead are best guesses, accounting for the partisan lean of each state, the quality of the prospective candidates, and approval-rating or polling data to the extent that it might be informative.) When we last conducted this exercise in February, our projection was for Republicans to win between 49 and 50 Senate seats, meaning that their standing has improved by about one seat since then.

Entire - Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup - NYTimes.com

[barbaro]

Just an update.

Joke race is Lyz Cheney running in WY. Click the link at bottom for the interactive map. It is easy to read as the list copied looks like ^&*$^$&.

U.S. Senate Races
2014 Election Cycle

There are 33 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2014. Of those seats, 13 are currently held by Republicans and 20 are held by Democrats. Use our interactive map and the links provided to learn more about each of these races.


AK Mark Begich
DEMOCRAT
08/26/2014 Joe Miller [R], Mead Treadwell [R]
Learn More
AL Jeff Sessions
REPUBLICAN
06/03/2014
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AR Mark Pryor
DEMOCRAT
05/20/2014
Learn More
CO Mark Udall
DEMOCRAT
06/24/2014 Owen Hill [R]
Learn More
DE Chris Coons
DEMOCRAT
09/09/2014
Learn More
GA Saxby Chambliss — Retiring
REPUBLICAN
07/15/2014 Jack Kingston [R], Karen Handel [R], Paul Broun [R], Phil Gingrey [R]
Learn More
HI Brian Schatz
DEMOCRAT
08/09/2014
Learn More
IA Tom Harkin — Retiring
DEMOCRAT
06/03/2014 David Young [R], Joni Ernst [R], Matt Whitaker [R], Sam Clovis [R]
Learn More
ID Jim Risch
REPUBLICAN
05/20/2014
Learn More
IL Dick Durbin
DEMOCRAT
03/18/2014 Doug Truax [R]
Learn More
KS Pat Roberts
REPUBLICAN
08/05/2014
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KY Mitch McConnell
REPUBLICAN
05/20/2014 Matt Bevin [R]
Learn More
LA Mary Landrieu
DEMOCRAT
11/04/2014 Bill Cassidy [R], Rob Maness [R]
Learn More
MA Ed Markey
DEMOCRAT
09/16/2014
Learn More
ME Susan Collins
REPUBLICAN
06/10/2014
Learn More
MI Carl Levin — Retiring
DEMOCRAT
08/05/2014
Learn More
MN Al Franken
DEMOCRAT
08/12/2014
Learn More
MS Thad Cochran
REPUBLICAN
06/03/2014
Learn More
MT Max Baucus — Retiring
DEMOCRAT
06/03/2014 Champ Edmonds [R], Corey Stapleton [R]
Learn More
NC Kay Hagan
DEMOCRAT
05/06/2014 Greg Brannon [R], Thom Tillis [R]
Learn More
NE Mike Johanns — Retiring
REPUBLICAN
05/13/2014 Bart McLeay [R], Shane Osborn [R]
Learn More
NH Jeanne Shaheen
DEMOCRAT
09/09/2014
Learn More
NJ Jeff Chiesa — Retiring
REPUBLICAN
06/03/2014
Learn More
NM Tom Udall
DEMOCRAT
06/03/2014
Learn More
OK Jim Inhofe
REPUBLICAN
06/24/2014
Learn More
OR Jeff Merkley
DEMOCRAT
05/20/2014
Learn More
RI Jack Reed
DEMOCRAT
09/09/2014
Learn More
SC Lindsey Graham
REPUBLICAN
06/10/2014 Richard Cash [R]
Learn More
SD Tim Johnson — Retiring
DEMOCRAT
06/03/2014 Annette Bosworth [R], Larry Rhoden [R], Mike Rounds [R]
Learn More
TN Lamar Alexander
REPUBLICAN
08/07/2014 Brenda Lenard [R]
Learn More
TX John Cornyn
REPUBLICAN
03/04/2014 Erick Wyatt [R]
Learn More
VA Mark Warner
DEMOCRAT
06/10/2014
Learn More
WV Jay Rockefeller — Retiring
DEMOCRAT
05/13/2014 Pat McGeehan [R], Shelley Moore Capito [R]
Learn More
WY Mike Enzi
REPUBLICAN
08/19/2014 Liz Cheney [R]

U.S. Senate Races

[barbaro]

GOP making gains?

The Hotline's Senate Race Rankings: Republicans in CommandA favorable map, public opinion against the president, and a glut of outside spending are boosting GOP fortunes across the country.

The 2014 Senate landscape continues to look challenging for Democrats. Republicans can take back the chamber after eight years of Democratic control with a net gain of six seats, and the seven seats most likely to flip are held by Democrats in states President Obama lost in 2012.

entire: The Hotline's Senate Race Rankings: Republicans in Command - NationalJournal.com

[harrybarracuda]

So how many seats can Citizens United and the Koch brothers buy in this eminently corruptible system? Can the GOP squeeze some more seats out with a bit more gerrymandering?

[Minnie Maugham]

So how many seats can Citizens United and the Koch brothers buy in this eminently corruptible system? Can the GOP squeeze some more seats out with a bit more gerrymandering?

Unlike the Dems and their army of dead, animal, fake, and multiple voters. More fraud from the left.
I hope Landrieu and all other senators who voted for bamcare get booted out.

[harrybarracuda]

So how many seats can Citizens United and the Koch brothers buy in this eminently corruptible system? Can the GOP squeeze some more seats out with a bit more gerrymandering?

Unlike the Dems and their army of dead, animal, fake, and multiple voters. More fraud from the left.
I hope Landrieu and all other senators who voted for bamcare get booted out.

I keep hearing this "voter fraud" bullshit but have yet to see any evidence that it has any effect whatsoever.

Probably because, surprise surprise, it doesn't.

I wouldn't fret though, it won't be long before the non-WASP majority consigns the GOP to the dustbin forever.

[barbaro]

So how many seats can Citizens United and the Koch brothers buy in this eminently corruptible system? Can the GOP squeeze some more seats out with a bit more gerrymandering?

Unlike the Dems and their army of dead, animal, fake, and multiple voters. More fraud from the left.
I hope Landrieu and all other senators who voted for bamcare get booted out.

I keep hearing this "voter fraud" bullshit but have yet to see any evidence that it has any effect whatsoever

There has been voter / voting fraud in the US since before we were born.

And it continues to this day on both sided.

ID is needed and should be. Too many "dead" voters voting, ballots lost and diebold voting machines leaving no paper trail.

Shitload of voting fraud going on. In my home county.

[harrybarracuda]

So how many seats can Citizens United and the Koch brothers buy in this eminently corruptible system? Can the GOP squeeze some more seats out with a bit more gerrymandering?

Unlike the Dems and their army of dead, animal, fake, and multiple voters. More fraud from the left.
I hope Landrieu and all other senators who voted for bamcare get booted out.

I keep hearing this "voter fraud" bullshit but have yet to see any evidence that it has any effect whatsoever

There has been voter / voting fraud in the US since before we were born.

And it continues to this day on both sided.

ID is needed and should be. Too many "dead" voters voting, ballots lost and diebold voting machines leaving no paper trail.

Shitload of voting fraud going on. In my home county.

Evidence please of it being significant enough to affect the outcome.

[barbaro]

So how many seats can Citizens United and the Koch brothers buy in this eminently corruptible system? Can the GOP squeeze some more seats out with a bit more gerrymandering?

Unlike the Dems and their army of dead, animal, fake, and multiple voters. More fraud from the left.
I hope Landrieu and all other senators who voted for bamcare get booted out.

I keep hearing this "voter fraud" bullshit but have yet to see any evidence that it has any effect whatsoever

There has been voter / voting fraud in the US since before we were born.

And it continues to this day on both sided.

ID is needed and should be. Too many "dead" voters voting, ballots lost and diebold voting machines leaving no paper trail.

Shitload of voting fraud going on. In my home county.

Evidence please of it being significant enough to affect the outcome.

So, if there is fraud and it does NOT affect the outcome that is OK?

(I'll wait for your answer before I give you 2 of many examples.)

[harrybarracuda]

Unlike the Dems and their army of dead, animal, fake, and multiple voters. More fraud from the left.
I hope Landrieu and all other senators who voted for bamcare get booted out.

I keep hearing this "voter fraud" bullshit but have yet to see any evidence that it has any effect whatsoever

There has been voter / voting fraud in the US since before we were born.

And it continues to this day on both sided.

ID is needed and should be. Too many "dead" voters voting, ballots lost and diebold voting machines leaving no paper trail.

Shitload of voting fraud going on. In my home county.

Evidence please of it being significant enough to affect the outcome.

So, if there is fraud and it does NOT affect the outcome that is OK?

(I'll wait for your answer before I give you 2 of many examples.)

That isn't what I asked or stated, so how about you answer the question.

[bsnub]

Voter fraud is insignificant in the US it is not widespread at all. The real crime is gerrymandering districts. Time and again democrats win the popular vote for house seats yet republicans maintain a majority. To me this should be criminal.

[barbaro]

To say it again: voter fraud is not about partisanship.

Remember the Diebold electronic voting machines? Producing results in 2 Congressional districts in 2 separate states that were considered statistically possible in the 1 to millions, ratio?

King County, WA.

Presidential election in 1960 in Chicago.

Presidential election in 1984 in MN, where many dead people showed up at the polls.

Good ol' Tamany Hall in NYC in the 19th Century.

[harrybarracuda]

To say it again: voter fraud is not about partisanship.

Remember the Diebold electronic voting machines? Producing results in 2 Congressional districts in 2 separate states that were considered statistically possible in the 1 to millions, ratio?

King County, WA.

Presidential election in 1960 in Chicago.

Presidential election in 1984 in MN, where many dead people showed up at the polls.

Good ol' Tamany Hall in NYC in the 19th Century.

Yes, and I remember the Chads.

But you haven't answered my question.

You claim to have an example of where voter fraud actually influenced a result.

I'd like to hear it.

And would it not support the Republican argument that when they try and pass legislation to stop certain groups voting that they are doing it for any other reason than to give themselves an advantage.

[barbaro]

To say it again: voter fraud is not about partisanship.

Remember the Diebold electronic voting machines? Producing results in 2 Congressional districts in 2 separate states that were considered statistically possible in the 1 to millions, ratio?

King County, WA.

Presidential election in 1960 in Chicago.

Presidential election in 1984 in MN, where many dead people showed up at the polls.

Good ol' Tamany Hall in NYC in the 19th Century.

Yes, and I remember the Chads.

But you haven't answered my question.

You claim to have an example of where voter fraud actually influenced a result.

I'd like to hear it.

You just heard it - above.

As for "groups" asking for I.D. has nothing to do with any "groups."

That is an old lie.

If you want to do almost anything you will present a form of ID. State ID costs about $7 dollars.

By using the term "groups" you are implying that people with brown or black skins do not have ONE, SINGLE, form of ID - because they are black or brown.

[barbaro]

And would it not support the Republican argument that when they try and pass legislation to stop certain groups voting that they are doing it for any other reason than to give themselves an advantage.

There was never legislation passed nor attempted to be passed to exclude certain groups from voting.

Now you - show the evidence of that.

[harrybarracuda]

To say it again: voter fraud is not about partisanship.

Remember the Diebold electronic voting machines? Producing results in 2 Congressional districts in 2 separate states that were considered statistically possible in the 1 to millions, ratio?

King County, WA.

Presidential election in 1960 in Chicago.

Presidential election in 1984 in MN, where many dead people showed up at the polls.

Good ol' Tamany Hall in NYC in the 19th Century.

Yes, and I remember the Chads.

But you haven't answered my question.

You claim to have an example of where voter fraud actually influenced a result.

I'd like to hear it.

You just heard it - above.

You just said instances where voter fraud was found. Now I asked for examples where it influenced the result. Could you identify the ones above where that happened?

[harrybarracuda]

And would it not support the Republican argument that when they try and pass legislation to stop certain groups voting that they are doing it for any other reason than to give themselves an advantage.

There was never legislation passed nor attempted to be passed to exclude certain groups from voting.

Now you - show the evidence of that.

Voter ID laws and Restrictions on Early Voting are both attempts by the Republicans to put off certain demographics from voting, and Republicans have admitted as such:

After the election, former Florida GOP chairman Jim Greer told The Palm Beach Post that the explicit goal of the state’s voter-ID law was Democratic suppression. “The Republican Party, the strategists, the consultants, they firmly believe that early voting is bad for Republican Party candidates,” Greer told the Post. “It’s done for one reason and one reason only ... ‘We’ve got to cut down on early voting because early voting is not good for us,’” he said. Indeed, the Florida Republican Party imposed a host of policies, from longer ballots to fewer precincts in minority areas, meant to discourage voting. And it worked. According to one study , as many as 49,000 people were discouraged from voting in November 2012 as a result of long lines and other obstacles.

In the debate over new laws meant to curb voter fraud in places like Florida, Democrats always charge that Republicans are trying to suppress the vote of liberal voting blocs like blacks and young people, while Republicans just laugh at such ludicrous and offensive accusations. That is, every Republican except for Florida’s former Republican Party chairman Jim Greer, who, scorned by his party and in deep legal trouble, blew the lid off what he claims was a systemic effort to suppress the black vote. In a 630-page deposition recorded over two days in late May, Greer, who is on trial for corruption charges, unloaded a litany of charges against the “whack-a-do, right-wing crazies” in his party, including the effort to suppress the black vote.

In the deposition, released to the press yesterday, Greer mentioned a December 2009 meeting with party officials. “I was upset because the political consultants and staff were talking about voter suppression and keeping blacks from voting,” he said, according to the Tampa Bay Times. He also said party officials discussed how “minority outreach programs were not fit for the Republican Party,” according to the AP.

Nearly two years ago local pollster, Bruce Merrill predicted that within five years Arizona would have twice as many independent voters as Republicans or Democrats. The rate at which independent voters has increased it may not take that long to come to fruition.

Since 1998 Independents have been voting in Primary elections. The big showdown between U.S. Senator John McCain and former Rep. J. D. Hayworth has Republican Party leaders trying to find a legal way to prevent independents, a third of the voters from participating.

Matt Roberts, spokesman for the state Republican Party said, “The Party believes that shutting out registered independents from their primary is a way “to encourage independents to join the Republican Party.”

So the most basic right in a democracy—the right for citizens to vote for candidates of their choice—fell under the persistent jackhammers of Republicans claiming to be worried about voter-impersonation fraud, although not a single case was brought forward. On the contrary, there is substantial evidence that 4 million to 5 million voters did not cast a ballot in the 2008 presidential election because they encountered registration problems or failed to receive absentee ballots, according to a study by experts in voting. An additional 2 million to 4 million registered voters—or 1 percent to 2 percent of the eligible electorate—were 'discouraged' from voting due to administrative hassles, like long lines and voter identification requirements.

Thus, the Wisconsin Republicans, acting on the basis of an unproven threat, ignored an authoritative study showing the very real problem of people being obstructed from voting. In total, the study estimated that up to 9 million Americans were unfairly denied the right to vote because of bureaucratic barriers. But the Wisconsin Republicans then proceeded to create as many barriers as they could.

And of course we all know why the Republicans are scared shitless of immigration reform.



I could keep on posting examples, but you get the point I'm sure.

[RPETER65]

[quote=harrybarracuda;2720874]

And would it not support the Republican argument that when they try and pass legislation to stop certain groups voting that they are doing it for any other reason than to give themselves an advantage.

There was never legislation passed nor attempted to be passed to exclude certain groups from voting.

Now you - show the evidence of that.

Voter ID laws and Restrictions on Early Voting are both attempts by the Republicans to put off certain demographics from voting, and Republicans have admitted as such:

After the election, former Florida GOP chairman Jim Greer told The Palm Beach Post that the explicit goal of the state’s voter-ID law was Democratic suppression. “The Republican Party, the strategists, the consultants, they firmly believe that early voting is bad for Republican Party candidates,” Greer told the Post. “It’s done for one reason and one reason only ... ‘We’ve got to cut down on early voting because early voting is not good for us,’” he said. Indeed, the Florida Republican Party imposed a host of policies, from longer ballots to fewer precincts in minority areas, meant to discourage voting. And it worked. According to one study , as many as 49,000 people were discouraged from voting in November 2012 as a result of long lines and other obstacles.

In the debate over new laws meant to curb voter fraud in places like Florida, Democrats always charge that Republicans are trying to suppress the vote of liberal voting blocs like blacks and young people, while Republicans just laugh at such ludicrous and offensive accusations. That is, every Republican except for Florida’s former Republican Party chairman Jim Greer, who, scorned by his party and in deep legal trouble, blew the lid off what he claims was a systemic effort to suppress the black vote. In a 630-page deposition recorded over two days in late May, Greer, who is on trial for corruption charges, unloaded a litany of charges against the “whack-a-do, right-wing crazies” in his party, including the effort to suppress the black vote.

In the deposition, released to the press yesterday, Greer mentioned a December 2009 meeting with party officials. “I was upset because the political consultants and staff were talking about voter suppression and keeping blacks from voting,” he said, according to the Tampa Bay Times. He also said party officials discussed how “minority outreach programs were not fit for the Republican Party,” according to the AP.

Nearly two years ago local pollster, Bruce Merrill predicted that within five years Arizona would have twice as many independent voters as Republicans or Democrats. The rate at which independent voters has increased it may not take that long to come to fruition.

Since 1998 Independents have been voting in Primary elections. The big showdown between U.S. Senator John McCain and former Rep. J. D. Hayworth has Republican Party leaders trying to find a legal way to prevent independents, a third of the voters from participating.

Matt Roberts, spokesman for the state Republican Party said, “The Party believes that shutting out registered independents from their primary is a way “to encourage independents to join the Republican Party.”

So the most basic right in a democracy—the right for citizens to vote for candidates of their choice—fell under the persistent jackhammers of Republicans claiming to be worried about voter-impersonation fraud, although not a single case was brought forward. On the contrary, there is substantial evidence that 4 million to 5 million voters did not cast a ballot in the 2008 presidential election because they encountered registration problems or failed to receive absentee ballots, according to a study by experts in voting. An additional 2 million to 4 million registered voters—or 1 percent to 2 percent of the eligible electorate—were 'discouraged' from voting due to administrative hassles, like long lines and voter identification requirements.

Thus, the Wisconsin Republicans, acting on the basis of an unproven threat, ignored an authoritative study showing the very real problem of people being obstructed from voting. In total, the study estimated that up to 9 million Americans were unfairly denied the right to vote because of bureaucratic barriers. But the Wisconsin Republicans then proceeded to create as many barriers as they could.

And of course we all know why the Republicans are scared shitless of immigration reform.



I could keep on posting examples, but you get the point I'm sure.[/quot

None of the above explains exactly how needing an ID to vote keeps any one from voting from voting.

[harrybarracuda]

Could you not quote properly or even edit if you're only going to add one line?


Anyway:

September 04, 2012
On Thursday, a federal court blocked a Texas voter-identification law that the three-judge panel said would unnecessarily burden poor, minority citizens from exercising their right to vote. The court cited the fact that many Texans would have to travel up to 250 miles round-trip to get a free “election-ID certificate” and that the $22 cost to obtain an ID without a birth certificate was too much of a burden. The judges said , “A law that forces poorer citizens to choose between their wages and their franchise unquestionably denies or abridges their right to vote. … Simply put, many Hispanics and African Americans who voted in the last election will, because of the burdens imposed by [the voter-ID law], likely be unable to vote in the next election.”

Voter-ID laws are written and passed on the premise that voter fraud is a widespread problem. But it isn’t . A recent study showed that you’re more likely to get hit by lightning than to commit voter fraud. Even after a five-year U.S. Justice Department survey and the slew of new laws, “the number of prosecutions [for voter fraud] have been practically nonexistent,” says Elisabeth Genn, counsel for the Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program .

These laws don’t demonstrably protect against fraud and certainly don’t provide the legal basis for significant prosecution of fraudulent voters, yet the laws have the potential to disenfranchise many voters this November. An Associated Press study found that in Indiana and Georgia — which have some of the most stringent voter-ID laws — more than 1,200 legitimate votes weren’t counted in the 2008 presidential election, and hundreds more ballots were blocked in this year’s primaries in those states and Tennessee.

[barbaro]

To say it again: voter fraud is not about partisanship.

Remember the Diebold electronic voting machines? Producing results in 2 Congressional districts in 2 separate states that were considered statistically possible in the 1 to millions, ratio?

King County, WA.

Presidential election in 1960 in Chicago.

Presidential election in 1984 in MN, where many dead people showed up at the polls.

Good ol' Tamany Hall in NYC in the 19th Century.

Yes, and I remember the Chads.

But you haven't answered my question.

You claim to have an example of where voter fraud actually influenced a result.

I'd like to hear it.

You just heard it - above.

You just said instances where voter fraud was found. Now I asked for examples where it influenced the result. Could you identify the ones above where that happened?

How about GWB winning Ohio in 2004?

Why don't YOU show me where it did NOT happen?

Google is your friend.

[harrybarracuda]

You seem to be doing everything you can to avoid answering my question.

I wonder why?

Added: I see some blogs insinuating that voter fraud was the reason Bush won Ohio, but no definitive evidence.

[barbaro]

You seem to be doing everything you can to avoid answering my question.

I wonder why?

Added: I see some blogs insinuating that voter fraud was the reason Bush won Ohio, but no definitive evidence.

Is this a "show me the proof" game show?

[raycarey]

You seem to be doing everything you can to avoid answering my question. I wonder why?

i'm not wondering why.

i know why.

because there is no evidence of 'voter fraud' at polling stations affecting the outcome of an election.

[barbaro]

Ray,

How about diebold electronic voting machines with the Repubs?

[Rainfall]

[And of course we all know why the Republicans are scared shitless of immigration reform.

What are you so happy about? There won't be an immigration reform, just another lie by uncle Tom. What's happening is that he deported more immigrants than any president before him, and his two terms of demagoguery aren't over yet. More than 2 million so far.