Dollar vs. Baht and other currencies...

[man with no head]

From March 2006 -> March 2007:

Down 4% against the Renminbi
Down 11% against the Pound
Down 1% against the Euro
Up 1% against the Yen
Down 8% against the Phillippine Peso
Up 1% against the NT$

Down 16% against the Baht (in comparison the Pound is 6% down against the Baht from a year ago).

[William]

^the Baht may be a glitch thou as there was a lot of fx inflow in that period. I really hope they (the US$ and Baht) correct themselves as I'm getting killed at the moment.

[Wallace]

You're not the only one. A strong pound is good if you live in the UK, not so good if you're over here.

[Airportwo]

correct themselves as I'm getting killed at the moment.

Me too! can't understand why the baht is so high!

[William]

you have to laugh, or you'll cry:

Part of my earnings are generated in $ss, paid into a GBP account in the Channel Islands, for utilisation in THB.

Boy am I feeling the pain

[lom]

Boy am I feeling the pain

With that Channel Island account, surely you don't feel the tax pain

[William]

^ true, true But under the new EU regulations, interest earnings have to be declared by my bank to the Inland Revenue

Might be time to visit the Cayman Islands

[Skulldigger]

Might be time to visit the Cayman Islands

We'll be waiting for you...

[William]

^hmmm, maybe give that a miss

Actually, it was much better in the days when I had no money at all, at least I didn;t have to worry about things like exchange rates

Oh to be a hippie again...

[ChiangMai noon]

Sounds like poor William is suffering pretty badly.
Anyone got any good fund raising ideas?

[William]

^if things carry on the way they are, it'll soon be more economical just to put my feet up and do bugger all

[Mr Earl]

^ I tell ya I'm hoping for some kind of turn around in the next 6 months.
I can hold out till then. I hope.

This downward slide of the dollar combined with an artificially high baht is going to kill me too if it goes too long!

We should have seen the baht drop with all the political instability here!
I hate seeing a new low for the dollar every time I've checked for the past couple of weeks. I cant believe it!

[William]

^I feel you...

B'stard

[William]

also, try explaining to the missus that your living expenses just got 20% more expensive (or so), when nothing has changed in Baht terms. She just looks at me blank and says "what do you mean we have to be more careful with our spending"

[ChiangMai noon]

^
my living expenses dropped 87% when i quit drinking.
If I can quit smoking too, living will be nearly free.

[William]

^yeah but if I recall you said you could live in CM on 40k a month when you were drinking. So, by my calculation, the most expensive thing you have to budget for each month is your sodding golf - you git

[Mr Earl]

^ I've cut back on my whoring as well. Being sober has reduced the attractiveness of the skanky hoes..

Hopefully improving my Thai will put me in a different league.

I'm lucky too because I'm making enough money here to cover my expenses.

I've got some condo balloon payments coming and a low dollar is going to hurt.

[GooMaiRoo]

Marc Faber, a conservative economist (Austrian School) who correctly called the crashes in the USA in '87, Japan in the 90's and Pacific Asia in 1997, has the following to say about the dollar. It doesn't exactly give me a warm and fuzzy feeling about our greenback: "we are in a global boom but it doesn't change the fact that it is an imbalanced boom and it's driven largely by credit creation in the US, leading to overconsumption, leading to a growing trade deficit, current account deficit, the accumulation of reserves in Asia and a global boom. But it is nevertheless an imbalanced boom and one day there will be a problem, certainly with the US dollar. The US dollar is a doomed currency. Doomed? Doomed. Will be worthless. Actually each one of your listeners should buy one US Treasury bond and frame it - put it on the wall so they can show their grandchildren how the US dollar and how US dollar bonds became worthless as a result of monetary inflation."

[lom]

^ Don't worry, federal reserve just bought a new hi-speed printing machine

[Butterfly]

well, the bad news is that the THB will get stronger, probably to 30

I am getting killed also, like everyone else.

apparently this is normal, Thailand is victim of its own export success.

[Dougal]

apparently this is normal, Thailand is victim of its own export success.

But...but....but..... I don't understand. I thought that the Thai export economy was going to die if the Baht rose above 36 to the dollar.

[Anonymous Coward]

I think the problem is that the baht looks good to investors because of Thailand's foreign reserve position which is a result of its export success.

[Butterfly]

this is basically the problem, Thailand has a huge trade surplus like Japan used to have 40 years ago.

With their strong "protectionism" against imports (we all know the corrupt mafia of customs officials here for imposing import duties on anything, even beyond the law), and export being the life blood of Thailand, it was a question of time for the THB to re-adjust. Since everyone is buying THB to pay for those exports, and there is not enough imports, then the THB go up. FX speculators saw this and now we have momentum, and it keeps rising.

The good news is that a stronger THB will "slow down" exports, then it will regulate itself. The problem is the timing and speculators betting on the trade surplus.

But even with slow exports, all those retirees, inflow of expats moving here, and the Japanese speculating against their YEN, it doesn't take much to wreck the currency market for the THB on a continuous basis.

[Butterfly]

So the conclusion is that we can't look at the THB appreciation from a local standpoint, we are too bias. We know the local problems of the country, the limit to growth etc... but that's not the issue. Financially, the country is in better shape and successful, at least today.

The only way for the government to stop the THB from rising is to let import flow in, with no restrictions. Basically taking advantage of the low USD to import goods here.

The only ones bitching are the rich exporters and the expats. They are losing revenues.

[man with no head]

Looks like it's hitting around 36 again. Yes?