Why the British economy is in very deep trouble
Posted by
Neil Hume on May 26 16:11.
Here’s something for the Chancellor and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to chew on: a warning from Dr Tim Morgan, the global head of research at Tullett Prebon, that the deficit reduction plan won’t work and the UK is headed for a debt disaster.
Morgan says sectors that account for nearly 60 per cent of UK economic output are critically dependent on debt (public or private) and set to contract rather than expand. This will render economic growth implausible and means the burden of public and private debt will prove too heavy for the nation to carry:
Over the past decade, the British economy has been critically dependent on private borrowing and public spending. Now that these drivers have disappeared – private borrowing has evaporated, and the era of massive public spending expansion is over – the outlook for growth is exceptionally bleak.
Sectors which depend upon either private borrowing or public spending now account for at least 58% of economic output. These sectors are now set to contract rather than expand, which renders aggregate economic growth implausible. And, without growth, there may be no way of avoiding a debt disaster.
Crikey.
So what are these debt addicted sectors?
Unsurprisingly they are real estate, finance, health, education, construction and public administration. And the outlook for each of them is grim says Morgan because:
- Public sector spending cuts are modest, but growth is now a thing of the past.
- Net mortgage borrowing, critical to the real estate and construction sectors, has crashed, from £113bn in 2007-08 to a derisory £3bn last year.
- The aggregate of private (mortgage and credit) borrowing has now turned negative.
Indeed, it’s hard disagree with Morgan who reckons the likelihood of mortgage borrowing increasing materially is close to zero until property prices return to a reasonable level, which he puts at 22 per cent below their 2010 average.
Or with his view that unsecured lending will remain weak, unless consumers are sucked into using credit to pay for necessities as real income decline.
And with real disposable incomes declining, retailing — another 11 per cent of output — will struggle even to stand still, lifting the ‘ex-growth’ proportion of the economy to 70 per cent, says Morgan.
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The leads him to believe the fiscal and economic outlook is drastically worse than is generally assumed. Of course, that’s something of a problem because the government’s fiscal rebalancing plan, which he agrees with, is dependent on something more than feeble growth — i.e .less than 1 per cent a year.
The mathematical implausibility of growth poses major problems given that the government’s fiscal rebalancing plan is entirely dependant upon growth reaching at least 2.8% in less than two years from now.
If this doesn’t happen – and we are convinced that it can’t – the deficit reduction plan will come apart at the seams.
Time for a Plan B then.
The trouble is, it’s somewhat unpalatable.
Short of almost unthinkably drastic restructuring, there may be no way out of Britain’s low-growth, high-debt trap.
Gulp.