Baht to Dollar: The Dollar index

**Airportwo** · 24-08-2008, 08:39 PM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

Well it is moving in that direction, and I stand by my predictions. By the way my opinion is no more valid than the supposed financial experts. (including yourself which you are hardly an expert)

Predicting or hoping?

In both cases I think you will be disapointed!

**Butterfly** · 24-08-2008, 09:47 PM

all this financial collapse end of the world predictions are silly,

if it was to happen, then the price of gold would go to the roof, maybe 20,000 per ounce

and guess who own the majority of Gold or at least quite a lot, the good old USA

at 20,000 an ounce that could be enough to payback all the outstanding debt, and maybe even more, bringing back the balance and rebooting the Matrix

**britmaveric** · 24-08-2008, 09:53 PM

^Sensible post Butterfy!!!

bkkandrew · 25-08-2008, 01:00 AM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

Well it is moving in that direction, and I stand by my predictions. By the way my opinion is no more valid than the supposed financial experts. (including yourself which you are hardly an expert)

You still stand by your prediction at B44 to USD that it will be 50? You made that prediction on ThaiVisa a few years ago if you recall. I called the prediction rubbish then and it is rubbish now.

bkkandrew · 25-08-2008, 01:08 AM

Originally Posted by Butterfly

all this financial collapse end of the world predictions are silly,

Who is predicting the end of the world?

We are close to a US debt default. Yu (acting as proxy for Premier Wen) was warning the US of its displeasure at the thought of $367 Billion 'investment' in Fanny and Freddie going up in smoke (along with all the rest of the US debt it owns). As you do.

The Chinese lose a lot of money they never really had, the US don't have the ability to borrow trillions to finance new wars and have to rediscover the art of paying for things. Why would this be the end of the world? Some would argue that is might be beneficial in the long run...

bkkandrew · 25-08-2008, 04:09 AM

This is from:

Bloomberg.com: Exclusive

<snip>

Taylor's International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the biggest currency hedge fund company in the world, is navigating through some of the wildest fluctuations the currency market has seen since the dot-com crash in 2002.

Now, this is a serious guy, who serious people take seriously...

<snip>

In the year ended in July, one of Taylor's most frequent bets has been on the euro against the dollar. Adjusting to the zigzagging market, he shifted from owning the euro to selling it, to owning it again, up to 15 times in his various funds as the European currency advanced 15.7 percent against the dollar, Taylor says. In trading Aug. 21, the euro stood at $1.4894, up 2 percent against the dollar this year.

Taylor says his models are telling him to continue to bet against the dollar. He predicts the dollar might lose about 40 percent of its value in the next three years against the Federal Reserve's trade-weighted currency index, which measures trade with 38 countries including Canada, China, Mexico and members of the European Union.

The prediction is partly based on his charts of the U.S. real estate cycle, which he says has a major impact on the dollar and will continue to point south for the next couple of years, dragging down the currency with it. He also says the price of a barrel of crude oil might reach $250 in 2011, further eroding the strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar.

**Begbie** · 25-08-2008, 06:25 AM

No arguements on the real estate front. However the oil case is specious. Oil will only reach US$250 a barrel if the dollar falls massively for other reasons. With an industrial downturn worldwide already here there is now an oversupply of oil and signs of an eighties style collapse in the price of oil. Taylor should stick to real estate.

**Butterfly** · 25-08-2008, 07:32 AM

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Now, this is a serious guy, who serious people take seriously...

I wouldn't take seriously a hedge fund manager, they have tendencies to make wrong predictions over the long run, and go bust,

Hedge fun managers come in all size and colors, if you get my drift, and frankly if I had any prediction power as a hedge fund manager, I would keep my mouth shut and serve my clients first instead of publicizing my silly announcements,

and yeah "Taylor should stick to real estate."

**ray23** · 25-08-2008, 08:17 AM

1997 crash Google Thailand 1997 financial crash and that should keep you busy. You will see many things similar, but they were trying to prop us the dollar, not what they are doing today.

Looking at the baht rate on Bloomberg this morning dollar prety much went up everywhere but here, where it lost a very small amount. The article does support the export growth I tend to believe Bloomberg more then the local news. Gee wonder why

But on the other hand dometic consumption has went down and doesn't appear to will do much better for the year. Bringing the true GDP down.

Interest rates BOT got some very strong direction both ways. I think they will raise them. The reason the hint to raise them came from the strongest person in this country.If so they can quit manipulating the dollar for a bit, But eventually that will be the avenue of approach if they continue on the current course.

I wish I could say this information is mine, but it is from another forum, that I have discussing this topic in for the past two years, I would say this guy prettiest close the majority of the time,. It give a petty clear picture of what ha happened recently since the dollar began to gain strength.

As you can see all of them, apart from the THB, experienced substantial falls of about 8% or more, these were as follows:

"
THB - max fall of 1.9% - today 1.3%

GBP - max fall of 7.6% - today 7.3%

EUR - max fall of 8.4% - today 7.2%

AUD - max fall of 11.9% - today 10.8%"

QUOTE
Thailand Economic Growth Probably Slowed, Easing Rate Pressure

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Michael Munoz

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's economic growth probably slowed for the first time in more than a year as increased exports of rice and rubber failed to offset weak local demand.

Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy expanded 5.8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after gaining 6 percent in the previous three months, according to the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due today at 9:30 a.m. in Bangkok.

Slowing growth means the Bank of Thailand may be on the verge of its last interest-rate increase this year, according to a Bloomberg survey. Governor Tarisa Watanagase is coming under pressure from the government to keep borrowing costs on hold and spur the economy amid signs inflation may be easing.

``Putting politics aside, I see a lot of room for the central bank to increase its key rate by 25 basis points this time,'' said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Forecast Singapore Ltd., who expects the Bank of Thailand to keep its benchmark unchanged at its meeting on Aug. 27. ``But things are quite messy. The government has tried to politicize interest rates.''

The Bank of Thailand will raise its one-day repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75 percent, the second increase in two months, according to eight of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest expect borrowing costs to be left unchanged. Of the eight predicting an increase this week, four say it will be the last for this year and the others forecast at least a further quarter-point rise.

Inflation to Peak

``The central bank needs to raise rates another time to anchor inflation expectations and it should be the last time,'' said Usara Wilaipich, a Bangkok-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc., who predicts borrowing costs will start to fall next year. ``Inflation will peak in a couple of months before easing off as growth eases in the second half. The central bank needs to take care of growth.''

Lower fuel costs will start to slow inflation from October onwards, Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said Aug. 15.

The central bank last month raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.5 percent, the first increase in two years, after inflation hit a decade-high 9.2 percent in July. The move has been criticized by members of the government.

Thailand shouldn't raise interest rates because it will lower economic growth, newly-appointed Deputy Finance Minister Suchart Thadathamrongvej said on Aug. 7. Governor Tarisa should resign if the central bank's policy differs from the government's position, he added.

`Stand Straight'

Governor Tarisa on Aug. 21 vowed to ``stand straight'' and continue to act in ``the best interest of the country'' after King Bhumibol Adulyadej praised the Bank of Thailand for its handling of monetary policy and its concern with inflation.

The central bank and the finance ministry agree that Thailand's economic growth may ease in the second half as a global slowdown reduces demand for the nation's exports, even as their views on interest rates differ.

Thailand is ``relying a lot on exports,'' said Sebastien Barbe, a Hong Kong-based strategist for the investment banking unit of France's Credit Agricole SA. ``With the U.S., Europe and Japan decelerating, the rest of Asia will weaken in the next few months. It is a very challenging backdrop for Thailand.''

Exports from Thailand, which account for about 70 percent of gross domestic product, rose 26.3 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. That was faster than the 22.9 percent pace recorded in the previous three-month period.

Consumer Confidence

Spending by local consumers and companies hasn't been that strong. An index of consumer confidence fell from April through June in line with surging oil costs, and protests and court cases against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's government.

Prime Minister Samak reshuffled his cabinet on Aug. 2, removing five ministers, after court rulings forced out key members of his administration. Allegations that Samak is a proxy for former premier Thaksin Shinawatra have led to protests since May urging the prime minister and his team to resign.

Thailand's Supreme Court on Aug. 11 issued an arrest warrant for Thaksin after he skipped bail and fled to the U.K. instead of attending a court hearing on corruption charges. The election commission will also decide next month whether to seek a court order to disband the ruling People Power Party because of alleged vote-buying.

The following tables show economists' estimates for economic growth and interest rates:

Thailand GDP Estimates
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----

2Q 2Q 3Q 4Q GDP GDP
Firm YoY QoQ SA YoY YoY 2008 2009
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Median 5.8% 1.0% 4.6% 4.1% 5.0% 5.3%
Average 5.8% 0.9% 4.6% 4.1% 5.1% 5.1%
High 6.2% 1.0% 5.0% 4.8% 5.4% 5.8%
Low 5.5% 0.8% 4.3% 2.9% 4.6% 4.5%
Number of Estimates 10 3 8 8 10 9
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Action Economics 5.8% 1.0% 4.8% 3.6% 5.0% 4.5%
Capital Nomura 5.8% 0.8% -- -- 4.6% 4.8%
CIMB Securities 5.9% -- 5.0% 4.4% 5.3% 5.5%
HSBC 5.6% -- 4.3% 4.2% 5.0% 5.0%
Kasikorn Research 5.8% 1.0% 5.0% 4.6% 5.3% 5.8%
KTB Securities 5.5% -- 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 5.3%
Moody's Economy.com 6.2% -- -- -- 5.4% --
SCB Securities 5.7% -- 4.7% 4.0% 5.0% 5.5%
Standard Chartered 5.8% -- 4.3% 2.9% 4.7% 4.5%
Tisco Securities 5.6% -- 4.5% 4.8% 5.2% 5.4%
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----

Thailand Benchmark Interest Rate Estimates

<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Aug. Oct. Dec.
Firm 27 8 3
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Median 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
% Estimates at Median 62% 50% 50%
High 3.75% 4.00% 4.00%
Low 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
Number of Estimates 13 10 10
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Action Economics 3.50% 3.75% 3.75%
Capital Nomura Securities 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
CIMB Securities 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
Credit Suisse 3.75% -- --
HSBC 3.75% 4.00% 4.00%
Kasikorn Research 3.50% -- --
KTB Securities 3.50% -- --
Moody's Economy.com 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
SCB Securities 3.75% 4.00% 4.00%
Standard Chartered Bank 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
Reuters IFR 3.75% 4.00% 4.00%
Tisco Securities 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
Westpac Banking Corp 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
To contact the reporters on this story: Suttinee Yuvejwattana in Bangkok at suttinee1[at]bloomberg.net; Michael Munoz in Hong Kong at mjmunoz[at]bloomberg.net"

<hr><hr><hr><hr>

I reserve the right to be wrong, to mispell words, too type badly, leave words out in sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers

bkkandrew · 25-08-2008, 02:28 PM

Originally Posted by Begbie

No arguements on the real estate front. However the oil case is specious. Oil will only reach US$250 a barrel if the dollar falls massively for other reasons. With an industrial downturn worldwide already here there is now an oversupply of oil and signs of an eighties style collapse in the price of oil. Taylor should stick to real estate.

Begbie, forgive me, but I think you missed his point on oil. He was extrapolating the post-crash collapse of the dollar to oil pricing in dollars. It therefore stands that oil pricing (in this scenario) in Euros, Sterling, et al, would remain roughly at current levels.

bkkandrew · 25-08-2008, 02:32 PM

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Now, this is a serious guy, who serious people take seriously...

I wouldn't take seriously a hedge fund manager, they have tendencies to make wrong predictions over the long run, and go bust,

Hedge fun managers come in all size and colors, if you get my drift, and frankly if I had any prediction power as a hedge fund manager, I would keep my mouth shut and serve my clients first instead of publicizing my silly announcements,

and yeah "Taylor should stick to real estate."

Yes, don't take anyone seriously that has knowledge of the subject at hand. That seems to be you modus operandi on all subjects.

Anyway, another snippet from the article:

``Taylor is up there with George Soros,'' says Maxime Tessier, head of foreign exchange at Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, a pension fund that manages about $258 billion from Montreal and is not Taylor's client. ``He's a beautiful example of how someone can be a successful investor in the foreign exchange market.''

**Butterfly** · 25-08-2008, 02:41 PM

George Soros is a wonderful investor, and did a few bold bets and won, and also lost a lot of them. He is not as hot as he used to. I refer to his Quantum fund and many FoF he had. Still love the guy, him and Warren Buffet, are two visionary.

The head of foreign exchange at "Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec" is just making an opinion, hardly evidence that is true. I could say that GW Bush is the greatest President of all, and Putin could say the same thing, and it wouldn't make it the more true.

bkkandrew · 25-08-2008, 03:31 PM

Originally Posted by Butterfly

George Soros is a wonderful investor, and did a few bold bets and won, and also lost a lot of them. He is not as hot as he used to. I refer to his Quantum fund and many FoF he had. Still love the guy, him and Warren Buffet, are two visionary.

So glad you like him. I glad he agrees with me:

I think this is probably more serious than anything in our lifetime,” he says. In short, his feeling is that the United States and Britain are facing a recession of a scale greater than the early-1990s, greater even than the 1970s.

From interview given here:

George Soros: ‘We face the most serious recession of our lifetime’ « Dissent Mag

Originally Posted by Butterfly

The head of foreign exchange at "Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec" is just making an opinion, hardly evidence that is true. I could say that GW Bush is the greatest President of all, and Putin could say the same thing, and it wouldn't make it the more true.

Indeed, but I'll place the views of the head of the largest hedge fund manager in the world before yours. Thanks all the same.

**Butterfly** · 25-08-2008, 04:24 PM

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

From interview given here:

George Soros: ‘We face the most serious recession of our lifetime’ « Dissent Mag

I am very well aware of his gloom theory about the USD and a financial collapse. Hopefully he will be proven wrong, not to say that everything is fine in the financial world.

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Indeed, but I'll place the views of the head of the largest hedge fund manager in the world before yours.

Not saying you shouldn't, but believing every piece of speculative news bits to support a theory is a bit silly though.

bkkandrew · 25-08-2008, 04:29 PM

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Not saying you shouldn't, but believing every piece of speculative news bits to support a theory is a bit silly though.

Then why do you do it then?

bkkandrew · 25-08-2008, 04:31 PM

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

From interview given here:

George Soros: ‘We face the most serious recession of our lifetime’ « Dissent Mag

I am very well aware of his gloom theory about the USD and a financial collapse. Hopefully he will be proven wrong, not to say that everything is fine in the financial world.

So, on one hand you think he is a "visionary", but on the other you disagree with him. That follows in a logical sense I suppose.

**Butterfly** · 25-08-2008, 04:34 PM

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Then why do you do it then?

I don't but you do though

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

So, on one hand you think he is a "visionary", but on the other you disagree with him. That follows in a logical sense I suppose.

He is a visionary, it means his long term vision of society, betting on a financial collapse or a correction is short term. Do you know what the word visionary means ?

**ray23** · 25-08-2008, 05:23 PM

Lets see Soros don't think he would like things lower so he could simply buy them for less do you?

bkkandrew · 25-08-2008, 09:54 PM

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

So, on one hand you think he is a "visionary", but on the other you disagree with him. That follows in a logical sense I suppose.

He is a visionary, it means his long term vision of society, betting on a financial collapse or a correction is short term. Do you know what the word visionary means ?

Yes, I do, I was pointing out that you admired him on one hand, yet diagreed with his vision on the other. For most people this would be considered odd, but we are used to it when you are concerned...

**Butterfly** · 25-08-2008, 10:10 PM

I agree with his vision, not his short term predictions, 2 different things, not sure how it's odd, all very logical

people are not black and white, he is not god, and he is not the gospels, he can be wrong like everyone else, it doesn't mean I don't respect some of his views or his visions because I have a different opinion from him on a specific prediction,

**Spin** · 04-09-2008, 10:25 PM

Prepare for 35 baht to the dollar with the next 48 hours

**chinthee** · 04-09-2008, 10:28 PM

Originally Posted by Spin

Prepare for 35 baht to the dollar with the next 48 hours

Yup, next step 40-42 for the long term. Many of us have predicted this over the long term. I think 40 is a long term right level for the Baht.

**jim1176** · 04-09-2008, 10:39 PM

Originally Posted by chinthee

Yup, next step 40-42 for the long term. Many of us have predicted this over the long term. I think 40 is a long term right level for the Baht.

Agreed, things are just too expensive at 34. I suspect visitors are down due to Thailand becoming so expensive so quickly.

Thailand is not a high end destination. Low quality demands low prices.

**chinthee** · 04-09-2008, 10:41 PM

^And, that is the right level. 40-42 is the proper level.

bkkandrew · 04-09-2008, 11:43 PM

^There is no 'proper level' in forex CT...

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