Thread: UPDATE 1-Thai March exports plunge, trend to continue in Q2

UPDATE 1-Thai March exports plunge, trend to continue in Q2
(AFX UK Focus) 2009-04-21 10:39
By Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat

BANGKOK, April 21 (Reuters) - Thai exports fell for the fifth month in March while imports also dropped sharply, and analysts said the trend was bound to continue for a while, although some took heart from an improvement in trade with China.

Exports, worth around 60 percent of gross domestic product each year, fell 23.1 percent in March from a year earlier to $11.56 billion after an 11.3 percent drop in February, according to Commerce Ministry data.

"With demand conditions not likely to improve in any significant way, we see very little scope for upside in these numbers down the road," said Forecast economist Carl Rajoo in Singapore.

Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong at Kasikorn Research Center agreed. "We expect the average drop in the second quarter will perhaps exceed 20 percent for exports," she said.

Imports fell 35.1 percent to $9.46 billion after a 40.3 percent drop in February, Commerce Ministry official Siripol Yodmuangcharoen told reporters.

Exports in the first quarter fell 20.6 percent from last year and imports 37.6 percent.

The trade account showed a surplus of $2.1 billion in March after a $3.58 billion surplus in February..

Exports to major markets were lower in March due to the global slowdown although the trend in exports to China improved for the second month, suggesting to analysts that the world's third-largest economy may be heading for a recovery.

Orders from China, accounting for 10.5 percent of the total, slid just 14 percent after a 29 percent fall in February.

"Looking at the global trend, we think it's likely that the Chinese economy could see early signs of recovery starting in the second quarter, whereas major economies like the U.S. and Japan will probably take longer," said Pimonwan at Kasikorn Research.

Nuchjarin Panarode at Capital Nomura Securities noted that exports in February were distorted by unusually high gold sales.

"But if we exclude that item, March's figure looks more of an improvement, suggesting that exports did not deteriorate."

COLLAPSE IN DEMAND

Exports to the United States fell 28.4 percent in March on the year, those to Japan 30.1 percent and to the euro zone 37.8 percent.

Sales to five Southeast Asian neighbours fell 35.5 percent.

Elsewhere, Taiwan's exports fell 35.7 percent in March from a year earlier, while Singapore's exports fell 17 percent.

The sharp drop in imports was exaggerated by a 40.2 percent fall in the value of crude and petroleum products, but imports of capital goods were weak, dropping 24.7 percent.

Thailand's export-driven economy has been hit by the collapse in global demand, as well as sluggish consumption and investment after months of political unrest.

Following last week's violent anti-government protests, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Tuesday the economy could shrink 4-5 percent this year.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast a contraction of as much as 4 percent.

The economy grew 2.6 percent last year.

After a 6.1 percent contraction in the final quarter of 2008, Thailand is almost certainly experiencing its first recession since the Asian economic crisis 11 years ago.
($1=35.60 Baht) (Writing by Orathai Sriring, editing by Alan Raybould)

iii.co.uk

Every month we get these figures. Exports drop, 20%, 35%, etc.. If Thailand's GDP is 70% exports, how much of that still exists after the last 6 or 8 months. But that's probably wanting too much of a straight answer, ain't it.

I would like to see a chart showing the decline in exports vs. the increase in the number of girls going to the Soi 7 Biergarden.

Originally Posted by mellow

Every month we get these figures. Exports drop, 20%, 35%, etc.. If Thailand's GDP is 70% exports, how much of that still exists after the last 6 or 8 months. But that's probably wanting too much of a straight answer, ain't it.

Those figures usually are against the same month the year before. Maybe with that knowledge you can figure it out.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

Originally Posted by mellow

Every month we get these figures. Exports drop, 20%, 35%, etc.. If Thailand's GDP is 70% exports, how much of that still exists after the last 6 or 8 months. But that's probably wanting too much of a straight answer, ain't it.

Those figures usually are against the same month the year before. Maybe with that knowledge you can figure it out.

Why do I need to do that? I'm not getting paid to come out with the real hard facts. Why can't the ones who are doing this as a job, come out with concrete info?
Information such as, " in normal times we sell a 100 units/ day, last month we are only averaging 30 units/day, due to the global recession." You notice how much easier it is to understand?

Journalists like to make headlines, so they fuck up the numbers so it looks bigger than it is. That happened a few month ago with Japan GDP numbers, when they annualized (multiply by 4 the actual drop) the drop to make it bigger and make a nice story about it.

The issue of measurement methodology and statistics is a sensitive topics for analysts, only journalists can get away with such allegations and make up such numbers, so they can write a nice story.

Of course the public and the likes of bkkandrew who have no clue about anything so they get sucked in and start using those numbers as facts.

As I watch this depression unfolding and exports dropping drastically, I keep wondering why Thailand has not devalued the baht.

If she devalued, export trade would immediately increase, given that demand for food will always increase, and Thailand has a food surplus coupled to a current sluggish export price for rice, a primary product.

NZ $ devalued at the onset of the recession, resulting in an export increase in the agricultural sector this year.

Unemployment has not soared in NZ either, though it has increased. House market collapsed as elsewhere, but currently the drop seems to have bottomed out.
Small alternative energy industries are doing better than most.

Retail spending has increased.

A very recent poll indicated 95% NZers as content with their lives.

The US and Europe aren't going to exactly starve if they don't buy rice from Thailand. Now if they were the only source of potatoes, that may change things.

Originally Posted by mellow

The US and Europe aren't going to exactly starve if they don't buy rice from Thailand.

My wife might. How can she survive without Thai fragant rice?

Originally Posted by Takeovers

Originally Posted by mellow

Why do I need to do that? I'm not getting paid to come out with the real hard facts. Why can't the ones who are doing this as a job, come out with concrete info? Information such as, " in normal times we sell a 100 units/ day, last month we are only averaging 30 units/day, due to the global recession." You notice how much easier it is to understand?

They give correct figures. You just misinterpreted them. You wanted to add those figures which is not applicable.

The figures compared to the same month last year make sense, because many products have yearly cycles in sales with peaks and lows, so only comparing to the same month or quarter last year give comparable data.



Edit: Correct figures assuming they didn't lie. I wanted to say that the method of presentation makes sense.

They have been stating figures ranging from 25% to 35% in this manner since around November. If that's the case I would say Thailand is doing extremely well as compared to the rest of the world. Therefore I don't see why they are crying about lost taxes, nor how they can justify seeking these large loans from the IMF, their own banks, and the Japanese. They haven't even paid back the money from the last monetary crisis. Loosing on average of 30% of exports, which amount to 70% of Thailand's income is really not bad in the current global economic market.

The weirdest part of the whole scenario is that is if one is not of the mainstream, basically post-Thatcherite economic regime, one is ignored in debate in current economic fora.

Sadly, thus, for a non-paragmatic debate upon the subject might ensue upon proffering intelligent answer to a seemingly dichotomous process.

?

Bleeding pigs runin roun da summer sky
Donno wat dey tinnk nor Do I
Got no anser fo de populace
No salvation fo da human race
Omy
Omy
O my!
Sevrl people anser sum
No reel feeling cum

wadya tinkin in dis fry? lookin up an seein sky
Ablaze

So laze
Away da time

^(Crt.) E.T.

Rice and corn grows wildly in SE Asia, so stocks are nearly always high, except in seasonal phases(eg. rat infestation resulting from bamboo bloom etc.) or under duress from climatic changes(also seasonal).

So grain /flour producers are also do well in this region.
East Asian grain belt is largeoly under-referred to by economists, for, upon examination, the largest volume of food consumed in SE Asia is carbohydrate in the form of grain or of processed grain, with some added vegetable or animal protein in the form of weeds(yes! grasses! yes!) and rotted/sour milk, if fresh unavailable because of heat.

Who is holdin bk dA RicE!!!

^Aha!
An answer in today's Nation.

Article, "Bid to sell huge rice stock".

I m getting a headache