Predictions for the economy 2009 and beyond?

**Rattanaburi** · 23-12-2008, 10:22 AM

Things aren't looking too good out there. The bad news just keeps coming. Is it a strange new economic world or just a bump along DOW 20,000. What do you think is in store for the economic world / investors in the coming year? Share your opinion. Let's see who will get it right. Make some picks for the coming year if you dare.

**good2bhappy** · 23-12-2008, 10:28 AM

USA will follow an Isolationist policy!

**Zephod** · 23-12-2008, 10:30 AM

I see a 3+ year global recession and we have yet to get anywhere near the bottom.

Peace..
Zephod

watterinja · 23-12-2008, 11:18 AM

Some analysts are already calling it one of the 3 worst years in financial history - 1931, 1937, 2008 - with 2008 being the worst by far in terms of wealth destruction. 1931,1937 were in the times of the Great Depression.

Interesting times lie ahead.

**Mid** · 23-12-2008, 11:22 AM

best option currently appears to be to return to bed till 2010

**Rattanaburi** · 03-01-2009, 03:45 PM

^ I kind of agree with that Mid. Friday markets were up but I don't think this is going to last. I just don't see too much working for the US economy at least.

**Thormaturge** · 03-01-2009, 04:04 PM

With the current head in sand approach to economic policy in the West, what I see is looming inflation.

The USA in particular, but also Western Europe, have to learn to reduce consumption in order to accommodate the rise of China and India. There isn't enough of everything to go around and the two emerging economies are sucking resources away from the developed ones.

Western governments will continue the illusion of wealth by allowing asset values to rise, and by even encouraging it. House prices will rise again and stock values will climb, all on the back of ludicrously cheap credit. This time the credit will be backed by the State since the banks aren't this stupid.

Inflation will rise spectacularly thereby stripping any true value out of the assets and leaving everyone worse off in real terms. The Dollar, the Euro and Sterling will all drop through the floor as interest rates are deliberately depressed in order to continue the illusion.

This is the world Obama is promising everyone, and it is what America voted for. Everyone else is following the new Messiah like sheep. O baa ma, O baa ma, O baa ma.

There are going to be an awful lot of very very poor pensioners in the next decade.

**klongmaster** · 03-01-2009, 05:16 PM

^Interesting analysis Thorms: where does SEAsia fit into this...is it possible for small countries like Thailand to steer their own course or will they be part of the flock?..

bkkandrew · 03-01-2009, 05:22 PM

I don't think I need comment as most know where I stand on this.

**MeMock** · 03-01-2009, 05:24 PM

Gold and Oil way way up.

**Thormaturge** · 03-01-2009, 05:35 PM

I think China will be back on a roll soon, fuelled by the funny money from the USA which will continue consuming the trash China has been manufacturing with money borrowed from the Fed. This time the US will be selling the family silver to buy rubber dog toys. US Treasury bonds will be the next worthless asset.

The USA has to eat and Thailand will happily continue exporting agricultural produce, so the Thai economy should hold up although with the Thai economy so closely tied to that of the US we will see inflation being exported here too. Price increases in the USA will cause prices to rise in Thailand correspondingly.

This should ensure the Baht - Dollar ratio remains broadly stable The question for Asia is whether small currencies such as the Baht can survive, and I do not believe they can. Speculators have shown us in 2008 just how much damage they can do, whether it be to commodities, banking institutions or economies. There must be a common ASEAN currency and I think it will be forced upon Asia to develop one. Meanwhile it may well become common to formally link currencies in Asia to the Dollar.

I look forward with eager anticipation to the eventual launch of the "Asean" as a currency to replace the Baht.

I will add coal to Memock's list. The USA generates half of its electricity from coal and China is building scores of new coal fired power stations. The rising price of oil will make it economicallyviable to clean up coal fired power plant emissions.

bkkandrew · 04-01-2009, 02:36 PM

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

I think China will be back on a roll soon.

Good luck with that...

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

**Thormaturge** · 04-01-2009, 02:53 PM

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

I think China will be back on a roll soon.

Good luck with that...

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

China’s economy expanded 9 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2008, the least since 2003. The World Bank forecasts a 7.5 percent increase in 2009, the smallest in almost two decades.

When Obama gives everyone the money for their replacement rubber dog toys China will have avoided a recession and will be growing in double digits gain.

No problem.

bkkandrew · 04-01-2009, 02:57 PM

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

No problem.

Apart from the teeny weeny one about the US Dollar reaching parity with its Zimbabwean namesake as a result.

**Panda** · 04-01-2009, 03:52 PM

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

When Obama gives everyone the money for their replacement rubber dog toys China will have avoided a recession and will be growing in double digits gain.

No problem.

US government borrows money from China to give to its citizens to buy goods from China. Does anyone see that there could be a slight problem here in the long term?

**mellow** · 03-01-2009, 06:12 PM

^ Do you really believe that the USA depends on Thailand for food?

**Thormaturge** · 03-01-2009, 06:21 PM

^
That isn't what I said. The USA does import agricultural produce, especially seafood, from Thailand and that is likely to continue. If anything Thailand has been increasing its agricultural exports by expanding into new markets so Thailand won't sink. The USA exports wheat which is of no interest to Thailand whatsoever. If the USA sucks money in from Russia and pays some of it to Thailand then nobody should be too upset.

In a perverse way I believe political instability suits Thailand since politicians don't have enough time to exert any real influence and commercial considerations fuel the economy instead.

**mellow** · 04-01-2009, 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

^
That isn't what I said. The USA does import agricultural produce, especially seafood, from Thailand and that is likely to continue. If anything Thailand has been increasing its agricultural exports by expanding into new markets so Thailand won't sink. The USA exports wheat which is of no interest to Thailand whatsoever. If the USA sucks money in from Russia and pays some of it to Thailand then nobody should be too upset.

In a perverse way I believe political instability suits Thailand since politicians don't have enough time to exert any real influence and commercial considerations fuel the economy instead.

The US imports about 3% of its seafood from Thailand. Agricultural imports and exports : ERS/USDA Data - Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS)

**britmaveric** · 03-01-2009, 10:30 PM

Economy will be back in order around 6-1yr. Then it will be boom time once again for the yank economy... lower oil, and low gold prices. (teeraks beware)

bkkandrew · 04-01-2009, 01:21 AM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

Economy will be back in order around 6-1yr. Then it will be boom time once again for the yank economy... lower oil, and low gold prices. (teeraks beware)

When Brit speaks, we all know the opposite will happen.

**Lynn** · 04-01-2009, 02:09 AM

After reading the majority of the replies, I can tell that most of you don't have a clue of what is going to happen in the near (12 months) future. All I will say is to start saving money if you haven't yet and make a real budget for your living expenses...it is going to be rough for a while until the governments sort out their economies and things get back on track.

**britmaveric** · 04-01-2009, 02:22 AM

Should spend spend spend - squirreling away your dosh won't help the economy.

bkkandrew · 04-01-2009, 02:25 AM

Originally Posted by britmaveric

Should spend spend spend - squirreling away your dosh won't help the economy.

You carry on and help uncle Tom Cobley and all. I'll just take care of my family thanks

bkkandrew · 04-01-2009, 02:23 AM

^^Lynn, with respect, I see little point in reposting vast amounts of information on this thread when it can be found here:

https://teakdoor.com/us-domestic-issu...-us-banks.html

**britmaveric** · 04-01-2009, 02:34 AM

That is the usual way - help thy self not others.

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