Thread: Teakdoors stock portfolio

isn't there a report on US oil reserves out shortly ?

Ok, I want to bring this up to date, its been about three months and things have been bleak but now they are coming back up in a few sectors. Whether these levels are sustainable are open to debate given the worldwide economic conditions.

Heres the profits that were made dipping in and out last year....



To that we need to add the 8 grand that was made from the last trade on the Solar panel company, First Solar.

Originally Posted by Spin

Originally Posted by Spin

21-11-2008, 08:28 PM BUY 200 First Solar FSLR at 90.50 USD

Originally Posted by Spin

04-12-2008, 03:44 PM SOLD 200 First Solar FSLR at 133.21$

Taking profit on this one. Quite a nice run up on this one in just 2 weeks sees 8,542$ profit.

So thats 11,040 + 8,542 which = 19,582 U$D

Heres the portfolio right now, many of the stocks are in the middle of a strong rally right now. Overall its showing 66,000 U$D negative so thats about 46,000 down if you take out the 19,582$ mentioned about. So I'm down about 10% overall which isnt too bad really given the chaos in the markets / economy.

What was your total initial investment in this game? 105,000 US$?

can you explain how total value is 413,000 USD ? are you shorting too ? if you are long only, you are obviously buying with money you do not have, hence making the whole performance numbers out of line, and incorrect.

Originally Posted by Rattanaburi

What was your total initial investment in this game? 105,000 US$?

This is Teakdoors stock portfolio, we are monied, 105K was just for starters to get warmed up. We got plenty of wonga to toss at things that might make a few $

Originally Posted by Butterfly

you are obviously buying with money you do not have

Yes thats right, I made this pretty clear on the first page of this thread. Its a game, with pretend money, taking pretend positions in stocks on the US markets. I thought I was making myself quite clear on that.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

hence making the whole performance numbers out of line, and incorrect.

Nonsense, all the buys and sells add up to the penny, unless you can prove otherwise, which you cant

Another one of our fert picks, CF industries had a record year according to forth quater results published yesterday.
Operating earnings totaled $343.9 million, up substantially from $214.2 million in fourth quarter 2007
Net earnings were record $190.1 million, or $3.59 per diluted share, up from $135.4 million, or $2.38 per share, in fourth quarter 2007
Fourth quarter results included inventory write-downs of $57.0 million, or $0.70 per diluted share on an after-tax basis, associated with phosphate and potash inventories
Fourth quarter results included $34.4 million in non-cash, pre-tax unrealized gains, or $0.42 per diluted share on an after-tax basis, from mark-to-market adjustments on natural gas derivatives. The gains compare to $12.9 million in non-cash, pre-tax unrealized gains, or $0.15 per diluted share on an after-tax basis, from mark-to-market adjustments included in fourth quarter 2007 results
Per share results for fourth quarter and full year reflect weighted average effect of company’s repurchase of 8.5 million common shares during fourth quarter 2008.

I might pick up some more at the open today, if thats ok with you Butterfly, as you obviously think you are in charge

Right then, the next couple of weeks are going to be very telling for the US markets.

Its make or break time, so if you are holding stocks or 401k then do please keep an eye on your investments next week.

Take a look at the chart below which is the S&P500 index.



I've drawn on there some pretty significant trend lines in black that you can see form a falling triangle. The market has been trading in this range for some time and that trading range is becoming compressed as the trendlines meet. The result of this "pent up energy" will be a sharp move outside of the trendlines.

One of two scenarios will be presented:

1, The market breaks out up and through the upper trendline and follows the green arrow upwards. This means that we can call the "bottom".
Everybody has been listening to the news and heard the question "have stocks bottomed?" They are referring to the lows you can see in the chart around November 20th at the 750 level. You can see how the market has not fallen through that bottom trendline, its been pretty resiliant, in the event of any breakthrough the trade quickly moved back above the trendline each time.

2. Of course, scenario 2 is the one nobody wants because it means the market will be in a world of pooh. If we break and close a day below this trendline, the market will fall to test the 800 level. There is stong support for the market at 808 and again 801. If they both fail the psychological level of 800 will probably fail.
This is bad becuase it will trigger huge automatic selling and create a similar scenario to November 20th. There is small support at 775 and the big support at 750.

If 750 doesnt hold then all bets are off. The next support level is down around 700 and then nothing until 650. Those are panic levels, and unfortunatley there is a very real chance that the 750 level will fail considering the absolutley shocking macroeconomic situation in America.

I'll be watching this closely and will update the thread with charts to document the action

Originally Posted by Spin

Yes thats right, I made this pretty clear on the first page of this thread. Its a game, with pretend money, taking pretend positions in stocks on the US markets. I thought I was making myself quite clear on that.

I know it's fake money, that's not what I mean. You didn't start with a fixed cash base so you could evaluate your performance properly in percentage terms. Instead you are adding cash as you go, which is a very bias way to do a portfolio simulation, you are distorting performance, making the whole exercise even less realistic.

Originally Posted by Spin

unless you can prove otherwise, which you cant

In dollars terms, it does add up, but not in performance percentages, your numbers are completely off. You don't include the impact of cash injection, and the negative impact of a cash balance. Of course, adding cash without any rebalancing is just adding to your performance distortion numbers in percentages.

Originally Posted by Spin

if thats ok with you Butterfly, as you obviously think you are in charge

Well I am just trying to help by pointing out some important mistakes and assumptions you are making, but as you said, it's you thread, your mistakes to make, and your losses to take

^ Teakdoors peanut Gallery has spoken! Its no wonder Andrew threw the towel in after having you following him around like a fooking Mr Know-it-all.

If the price of a stock falls you can do one of three things.

1. shit yourself and sell at the bottom like most retail investors.
2. ride it out in the hope it comes back up.
3. Buy more on the dip, average down and wait for the bounce. This is the method I'm using.
You can waffle on me making important mistakes and not making it realastic all you like

Originally Posted by Butterfly

but not in performance percentages, your numbers are completely off.

I dont doubt you knowledge on many economic topic but at times you talk total bollocks and right now is one of those times. All the percentages on this thread are accurate relative to the total invested, the numbers are there to see.
Give me one example of any instance where a percentage is complete off, you cant, thanks for playing, now hurry back to mkp and play in the dirt with your friends

^ The Dow actually closed at 7,552.60 today... Not good... Long slide coming...

Fasten your safety belts because it's going to be a bumpy ride...

Originally Posted by Muadib

Fasten your safety belts because it's going to be a bumpy ride...

With the free fall of GDP from G7 nations, it's not going to be pretty for the coming months in the Real economy

Markets are going to be miserable, that's usually flat with no upswings. At least when markets are crashing, you can pickup bargains at the bottom and hope for a rebound. But when it's flat, and going nowhere, why bother ?

Whats next?

Yesterday the S&P500 didnt really know what to do with itself. It found some support at the 783 level but how long that holds is open to debate, theres lots of macro economic data coming out today which is almost sure to be crap.
A move lower would be nice because it presents a buying opportunity of solid companies who will come out of this mess on the other side unscathed.

BUY 1000 DXO 2x long oil fund at 1.75$

After an early morning rally the optimism was killed by the incredibly bad Philly manufactirng numbers. SP500 fell throughout the day from 795 to close at 780.
Obama was in Canada chatting shit whilst the two biggest and most insolvent "banks" messrs Citigroup and Bank Of America inched a little bit closer to nationalisation. Citigroup shares, once priced at 50$ can now be had for 2.50$, not many buyers though, bargepole, touch, wouldn't.
The market is sending a clear message to Obama thats says "So far, we think you and Geithner have been shit"
Dark days ahead.

Hmm, I wonder if the banks are nationalized, will all the bank employees revert to Government Services pay grades??? Nah, that would be too good to be true...

Just a quick update on the markets have been doing, below is a chart of todays action so far. The top half is the Dow and this morning it fell below critical support at 7148 fortunatley it pulled above but later tested that level again at 12.10.
The bootom half is the S&%500 index, touching 745 this morning had me sweating as its critical that the 741 level holds. If the market moves through that level, god know where it will stop, possibly near 640-690.

Ben Bernanke has been talking all day live on cnbc and Bloomberg tv, the large move up at lunchtime is the exact moment when he shut up and they took him off the telly

US futures are now testing the 741 level on the S&P500. This is on the back of news that Citigroup has been bailed out, again, whats this? the third time? fouth time? answers on a postcard please....

Originally Posted by Spin

The next few days will see the 741 area tested on the S&P500

Well, that was what I said on the 18th and today was the day that magic number 741 had its day in the sun. And what a day it was.

Just to recap, the 741 number is important because it was the days low on November 20th. That low was the lowest since something like 1998, certainly lower than the tech crash of 2001-2002 which was 775.

The US markets just closed and here is a simple chart of todays action, now this chart is a cracker, it demonstates perfectly the way the stock exchange behaves technically, you can see that we opened the day below 741 and put in a new low at 735. Then during the morning trading moved higher but 741 was always the centre of attention.
Look at the action just before 13.00, the market came down and touched 741, moved up to 750 and then came back down to test to see if everybody was happy above 741
The last hour was a nightmare falling below and then coming up and testing, getting pushed back, coming up again and moving higher.....then falling below again! Bastard!



So we closed at S&P500 734.95 this is the lowest level since December 1996

This market is clearly heading to the 600 - 650 level, I think we will see a bear market rally to 800 before 650 but the market right now is sending out signal that it is happy to move lower.

Welcome to 1996!

Good times eh?

Gazzas goal for England against the jocks in the Euro '96



Deion Sanders of the Dallas Cowboys gets inside Willie Williams of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Superbowl 1996


Stocks at 1996 prices!, yes thats right boys an girls. Those super-smart chaps that run wall street have conspired to destroy your wealth but they're not happy with that! They now will take your money to pay themselves so that they continue their egregious lifestyles with impunity!

Its a wonderful world we live in isnt it?

According to Bloomberg the S&P is at 705.

^ Hello stranger

The markets just closed in New York, following on from this mornings chart above the selling continued throughout the day and for a moment we fell below the 700 level but came off it to close at 701.17, down 33.92 points for the day or -4.62%
That horizontal white line is a support level at 701, its good that we closed above it, lets see what happens tomorrow.



Heres the bigger picture, clearly showing where things are headed.



The Dow Jones is also a basket case, today it opened just below 7000 for the first time since 1997, however it went on to scrub a total of 300 points off to close at 6763 -300 points, -4.24%.

Even Buffet has made booboos (dam that Conoco investment!). Bladdy economy and the banks are pushing this down now. And Obama's wild spending sprees aren't helping either.

^ Yep, the market has now realised that he Obama honeymoon is over and that he and his team dont have any better solutions to problems within the financial system.
I admire Buffet for his honesty, he said some interesting things today but his comments regarding the US economy were unwelcome. Guy with his profile should choose their words carefully, his comments today helped move the markets lower and everybody is already taking a spanking.