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Originally Posted by Butterfly  Quote: |
Originally Posted by bkkandrew Now, we can see that the number of cars in China has increased 53% from 2005 to 2007. Yet in the same period oil production has decreased by 0.036%. This significantly is the period of the large rise in oil prices.
So is Butterfly right that production is rising in tandem with demand? | great now you are confusing growth rate of supply and demand, with quantities of supply and demand, you can't make that shit up  |
No confusion. Unless you are suggesting that the 53% increase doesn't, er, represent an in increase. Perhaps in Butterflyworld...
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Originally Posted by Butterfly The growing supply of oil (note, it doesn't say rate) match growing demand. Is demand served by supply ? yes, is demand growing faster than supply, probably, but as long as supply serves demand, everything is fine. A growth rate is NOT quantity, and is irrelevant in the price equilibrium of demand and supply. That's what you are failing to understand, and you keep barking at the wrong tree. |
What a load of nonsense. Typing 1000 random words will not get round the fact that between 2005-7 oil supply dropped.
The only actual disagreement you could logically have is that the figures are wrong. Have you got any evidence to support this?
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Originally Posted by Butterfly Quote: |
Originally Posted by bkkandrew So are the cars 'real' or 'imaginary'?
Will they produce 'real' or 'imaginary' demand for oil? | See my post above, you are confusing growth rate and quantities. As long as all those cars are being served, |
No, I'm not confusing anything. I was asking whether the cars were real or imaginary. I note you have not answered this.
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Originally Posted by Butterfly there is no problem. Forecasting price based on growth rate is exactly the problem here, and explain the speculative moves we are seeing on the oil market. At the current rate, the "insignificant" downfall could become significant in the FUTURE. But speculators forget about price elasticity and how demand and supply reacts and adjust to higher prices. This will lead eventually to a revision of the growth rate and lower expectations of future oil price. And this is probably what we are seeing already. |
You would talk about anything than addressing the points raised. Ladyboys anyone?