TeakDoor.com - The Thailand Forum - View Single Post

raycarey · 14-04-2008, 12:00 AM

here's an interesting analysis by the post's chris cillizza.

Quote:

Scoring "Bitter-gate" (So Far)

It's easy, amid the conference calls and surrogate statements that have flown back and forth over the last 48 hours, to lose sight of what is truly at stake in the battle over Sen. Barack Obama's (Ill.) comments about small town voters.
The Fix aims to provide some clarity on the issue even as the frenzy continues. So, below you'll find the pluses (yes, there are some) and minuses for Obama's political future. There are of course many unknowns -- the biggest being how long this hubbub lasts -- but here's our attempt to wrap our arms around one of the biggest events in the campaign to date.
What did we miss? Offer your own pluses and minuses in the comments section below.

PLUSES
* Friday Night Firestorm: The news of Obama's remarks at the fundraiser broke on Friday afternoon when many people were paying a lot more attention to their weekend plans than to the state of the presidential race (not, of course, the ever-vigilant Fix). That's not to suggest average voters won't become aware of the controversy, but the fact that it first unfolded on a Friday, Saturday and Sunday may lessen the damage. Of course, the Sunday talk shows are sure to be dominated by talk of Obama's gaffe -- a focus that will drive a series of stories Monday.

* No YouTube Yet: The fact that no video of Obama's remarks has emerged, yet, is a blessing for the Illinois Senator's campaign. (This clip, uncovered by Politico's Ben Smith, suggests that someone was videotaping the event and, if so, that the actual remarks are likely to emerge on video at some point.) Scoff if you will but video is FAR more powerful than audio in the political arena. And, the only extant audio we have heard -- captured by Huffington Post -- is scratchy and not of the best quality. That amounts to a blessing for the Obama campaign.

* Rapid Response: Sensing a potential problem, the Obama campaign responded swiftly to the growing controversy -- making sure reporters had transcripts and video of Obama's response to the flood of criticism that started Friday evening. Smart move. Some things are too big to effectively squelch within 48 hours but the Obama campaign apparatus again proved its mettle.

* General Election Practice?: Obama drew kudos for the way in which he handled the controversy over comments made by Rev. Jeremiah Wright -- bolstering the confidence of worried party strategists who wondered if he was ready for the big time. Should Obama successfully navigate this stormy sea (and that remains an "if"), he may well emerge stronger and better prepared for what promises to be a rough and tumble general election. Every crisis -- even this one -- provides opportunity.

MINUSES
* Double Barreled Assault: The "elitism" charge leveled at Obama fits nicely into the messaging of BOTH Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) in the primary battle and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), who is already waging a general election campaign. For every statement Obama puts out on the issue, two come in response. For every conference call his campaign holds, that number is doubled by Clinton and McCain. Fighting two-on-one makes for tough odds and is usually a recipe for a loss.

* Geography is Destiny: There couldn't have been a worse place for Obama to make these remarks. San Francisco is widely seen by those who live in so-called "fly over" country as an example of liberalism run rampant. Even Obama, who touts his willingness to speak truth to power, appears to have gotten caught playing to his audience.

* Republican Red Meat: Branding the Democratic nominee as an out-of-step elitist is something Republican strategists have some experience with. One needs only think back to 2004 when Sen. John Kerry's ordering of a cheesesteak with swiss cheese, expensive haircuts came to define him as someone unable to empathize with the average voter. Can Obama avoid a similar fate?
* Sorry is the Hardest Word: On Friday, Obama said that his political opponents were twisting his words out of context. On Saturday Obama said he regretted the words he chose but didn't back away from the sentiment. Will tomorrow bring a full-fledged apology? If so, Obama dragged out the inevitable apology for three days -- ensuring that the story will survive into the early part of next week (if not longer).

* The States to Come: Obama appeared to be on the rise in Pennsylvania in advance of the state's April 22 primary. It's hard to see how these comments (and the furor they have caused) don't slow that momentum considerably. And, both Indiana and North Carolina have a high number of small towns where religious faith and gun ownership are close to ubiquitous. It's hard to see Obama losing in North Carolina given the significant black vote, but could these comments cost him a win in the Hoosier State -- the last true battleground in the nomination fight? Could they also impact Montana and South Dakota, small-town heavy states set to vote on June 3?

i agree with him on the positive aspect of this happening on a friday, but disagree with him on the youtube effect. i think if we were to see the comments in context (and via video it would be clear what he said, was stated without malice) it would deflate the entire controversy.

and btw, i'm think that many of the people in question would prefer to be referred to as 'bitter' about how they've been manipulated rather than be labeled as 'uneducated'.

Scoring "Bitter-gate" (So Far) - The Fix