Thread: Seeking the truth on Thai tourism

To be honest, I don't think a lot of Thais give a toss about tourism, or if we come or not, and if we don't come then many would be happy. It's certainly not as important as their childish arguments about interior matters. The only people here that lose their jobs because of this are not important in the Thais eyes that are instigating the current implosion of sanity.

The truth? In Thailand!!

Thailand Tourism Report Q4 2009 - new research

H109 Arrivals Figures Slump Bearing out our gloomy prognosis for the Thai tourism industry in 2009, tourist arrivals have fallen sharply in the first half of 2009. Figures released by the Office of Tourism Development (OTD) showed that tourist arrivals fell by 16.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), to arrivals of only 6.6mn. This followed a decline of 2% y-o-y in 2008 as
a whole, with Thailand being one of the first countries to be affected by the global economic downturn.

Thailand’s tourism attractiveness continues to be damaged by external and domestic factors. With regards to the former, the economic slowdown continues to act as a deterrent to international visitors, although domestic tourism benefits during a downturn. The industry, in common with many other countries in Asia, has suffered following the outbreak of the H1N1 (swine flu) virus in Mexico in April, which swiftly spread to Asia and further discouraged visitor arrivals. It is notable that visitor arrivals fell particularly strongly in Q209 even though the industry might have been expected to benefit from the spring holiday season. Arrivals fell by 16.6% y-o-y in Q209 to 2.96mn, an 18.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) decline.

Tourist arrivals totalled 3.64mn in Q109.

As well as the swine flu outbreak, this sharp decline is also linked to a resurgence of political protest in Thailand, which is has disrupted transport, including the blockade of Suvarnabhumi International Airport Bangkok in November 2008. In particular, riots in Bangkok in April led to the declaration of a state of emergency in the capital and five other provinces by the government. Given these negative factors, we believe that Thailand will continue to be one of Asia’s poorest performing tourist industries in 2009, and maintain our full-year arrivals forecast of 12.9mn.

Thailand Turns To Domestic Tourism With international arrivals slumping so dramatically, the government is turning to domestic tourism as a means of shoring up revenue during the downturn. Domestic tourism has been steadily growing and in 2008 totalled more than international visitors. However, Thai tourists tend to make shorter visits, such as weekend breaks, and spend less. In order to bolster domestic tourism, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) have launched a number of marketing campaigns to attract tourists to less well known parts of the country. For example, in mid-2009, TAT launched the 5 Region Thai Travel Fest, a touring travel fair targeting the provinces of Chonburi, Ubon Ratchathani, Phitsanulok, Nakhon Si Thammarat and Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya.

Thai Airways Experiences Positive Q1 Despite the slowdown in tourist arrivals, national carrier Thai Airways International succeeded in posting a profit in Q109. Net profit totalled THB7.87bn (US$228mn), up from THB2.22bn in Q108. This follows the airline’s significant losses in Q408, when it posted a loss of THB14.8bn (US$411mn). Thai Airways has managed to turn this situation around by implementing a wide-ranging restructuring and cost cutting plan, as well as by agreeing a US$1bn [COLOR=#0000CC ! important][COLOR=#0000CC ! important]loan[/COLOR][/COLOR] from financial institutions. One sign of the airline’s determination to reduce costs was the reaching of an agreement with Airbus to delay the delivery of six Airbus A380s from 2010 until 2012. However, the [COLOR=#0000CC ! important][COLOR=#0000CC ! important]airline[/COLOR][/COLOR] is unlikely to repeat such a positive performance in Q209, with the impact of swine flu and political unrest continuing to weigh on revenues.

Special Focus: Thai Political Crisis Thailand has experienced extreme political instability since the military coup in September 2006 that deposed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. This appeared to briefly resolve the conflict between Thaksin supporters and opponents, which had spilled over into frequent protests and violence, particularly in Bangkok. However, subsequent elections returned Thailand to its pre-coup situation, with Thaksin supporters winning a majority under new leader Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law.

The conflict reignited in 2008, with opposition to the government coalescing behind an umbrella group known as the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), led by Sondhi Limthongkul. The PAD have organised repeated anti-government protests, which worsened in H208 and became more violent. While this did not physically affect tourism, which is largely away from Bangkok on the coast, it further damaged Thailand’s international reputation. Travel advisories issued by countries, including the US and the UK, warned against travelling to Thailand, providing a significant disincentive for potential tourists.

The protests peaked with the occupation of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport on 26 November 2008, which left about 3,000 passengers stranded. No tourists were hurt in the protest, which was largely peaceful. The PAD protesters were demanding the resignation of Somchai, prompting rumours of a fresh coup. Somchai resigned on 2 December. Abhisit Vejjajiva became Prime Minister’s on 17 December after winning a special parliamentary vote.

This airport protest will have a major negative effect on Thailand’s tourism prospects. This was the first time that the industry had been directly targeted, and the protesters’ use of this tactic suggests that they consider attacking the lucrative industry as a highly effective way of putting fiscal and political pressure on the government. Despite the eventual peaceful resolution of the occupation, the direct effort to disrupt travel sets a worrying precedent and will act as a disincentive for tourists considering a holiday in Thailand in 2009.

Special Focus: Southern Insurgency Continues Despite speculation that the tenure of the military government in 2006 might herald a shift in policy towards the disturbed southern region, little change was initiated. Since early 2004, the southern provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat have experienced bouts of significant unrest, which are often attributed to Islamist secessionists seeking to win independence for the region. This conflict has claimed more than 3,500 lives since 2004 and is characterised by the use of co-ordinated bombings and direct attacks on police and military bases.

Initial suggestions that the military government might attempt to open negotiations with insurgent groups – who are primarily seeking autonomy or independence – were abandoned as it became clear that neither side had any real incentive to begin talks. Instead, the military government followed the Thaksin administration’s policy of launching security initiatives in the south as a means of shoring up domestic support. In June 2007, the military launched a programme of security sweeps on areas in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat as part of Operation Defend the Southern Border. The security operation was intended to reduce violence in these areas ahead of the December elections. Although there have been some improvements, such as a decrease in bomb attacks on military patrols, the level of violence has not decreased significantly.

For some time the report has warned of the possibility that militants could attempt to strike targets in Bangkok or key tourist areas to pressure the government, and there were widespread concerns that the Bangkok bomb attacks on December 31 2006 marked an escalation of the insurgency. However, no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attacks and there have been no further suggestions that the insurgency has spread. Also, targeting areas such as Bangkok or major tourist sites would be counterproductive for insurgents, since this would strengthen public opinion against the secessionist movement.

Instead, insurgents are continuing to target areas in the south that are not major tourist destinations. This regional concentration of activity lends weight to argument that the southern insurgents were not responsible for the New Year’s Eve bombings and should reduce fears of an expansion of the southern bombing campaign across the country in the medium term.

However, the strength of the insurgency remains a low-level threat and will continue to act as a drag on the performance of Thailand’s tourism sector. Although the south is relatively tourist-free, heavily publicised bomb attacks in the south would have negative implications for the sector as a whole. In this regard, an attack in March 2008 demonstrated that the insurgents retain a strong military capability. A car bomb was set off outside the CS Pattani Hotel in the southern province of Pattani, where tourists and local politicans are frequent visitors. This may have been a response to the military government’s crackdown on the insurgency in 2007, which has been maintained by the civilian government. The shift towards attacking commercial premises, as well as the more usual clashes between insurgents and security forces, may act as a further deterrent to potential visitors despite the south’s relative unimportance to tourism.

^^^ I would wager that those Thais that do rely on the tourism industry would differ with your opinion...

Originally Posted by Muadib

^^^ I would wager that those Thais that do rely on the tourism industry would differ with your opinion...

Yes but spitfire is right when he says

The only people here that lose their jobs because of this are not important in the Thais eyes that are instigating the current implosion of sanity.

I assume he is referring to PAD and the people behind them.

The rich here don't give a shite about the tourists and the plight of the average Thai.

They just build yet another mall or hotel and the poor work for them until they loose their job.

As for the tourist trade its heading else where.

It seems I've read the same article for years now, proclaiming the dropoff in tourism numbers due to this or that (SARS, Gulf War part duex, coup, tsunami, etc) but just try to find a room during high/peak season.

That's where the rubber meets the road, over-priced rooms are chock full during peak times, so they can afford the slow down in off season. Until I see vacancies and discounts during high season, I'm skeptical about these "sky is falling" reports.

Originally Posted by crippen

The truth? In Thailand!!

great post

back to TV and try it there

Originally Posted by Smug Farang Bore

The rich here don't give a shite about the tourists and the plight of the average Thai.

They just build yet another mall or hotel and the poor work for them until they loose their job.

As for the tourist trade its heading else where.

and who will stay in these rich peoples hotels?

why would they build them?

strange

Originally Posted by Bexar County Stud

It seems I've read the same article for years now, proclaiming the dropoff in tourism numbers due to this or that (SARS, Gulf War part duex, coup, tsunami, etc) but just try to find a room during high/peak season.

That's where the rubber meets the road, over-priced rooms are chock full during peak times, so they can afford the slow down in off season. Until I see vacancies and discounts during high season, I'm skeptical about these "sky is falling" reports.

well, the numbers are down, year on year

we will just have to wait and see

the flights seem pretty full so far

Originally Posted by Spitfire

To be honest, I don't think a lot of Thais give a toss about tourism, or if we come or not, and if we don't come then many would be happy. It's certainly not as important as their childish arguments about interior matters. The only people here that lose their jobs because of this are not important in the Thais eyes that are instigating the current implosion of sanity.

Yep. Occasionally, the truth pops it's little lost head out of the sand. 75% of Thais are indifferent about the tourism reality and related issues {good, bad, indifferent}. This is a outside consciousness that is attentively repeated.

[quote=DrAndy;1218286]

Originally Posted by Bexar County Stud

It seems I've read the same articl


the flights seem pretty full so far

but theres not as many flights as before thats why ...

Dangerous Ground

^thats not the reason,

Originally Posted by DrAndy

well, the numbers are down, year on year

we will just have to wait and see

the flights seem pretty full so far

Less flights?

Flights, Camera, Action! Phuket's Reality Check

By Alan Morison
Thursday, November 5, 2009
IT WOULD be easy to talk up the latest figures for passengers and flights to Phuket. We could jump in the air and say: ''Have a look at these! Everything is wonderful!''

And we are willing to bet that the people at the Tourism and Sport Ministry who claim there is now ''full occupancy'' at all resorts in Phuket, Krabi, Phang Nga and Samui will continue to look at the world in that rosy fashion.

''Full occupancy,'' as everyone on Phuket knows, is a long way from the truth. And while the latest figures show that Phuket had a 14.5 percent increase in arrivals and departures for October, following on from the 36.48 percent increase in September, everything is not really wonderful.

You see, there were no departures or arrivals at Phuket International Airport for about 72 hours in late August 2008, apart from the comings and goings of the yellow-shirt invaders.

And that's the reason why we are not jumping for joy about the latest large and seemingly wonderful year-on-year rises. September and October last year were disastrous. Come to think of it, so were November and December.

And someone better tell the Ministry of Tourism and Sport and the TNA soon. Being positive is one thing, being totally inaccurate is another.

A more realistic comparison can be made by looking at how 2009 figures stand with 2007, when Phuket was heading towards its best-ever high season.

In October 2007, Phuket had 448,301 arrivals and departures. This compares with 488,474 last month. So that's a healthy improvement. In 2007, the good news kept on coming, with a total of 506,879 in November rising to 600,850 in December.

While a lot of airline activity is returning and signs are good, forward bookings at resorts leave much to be desired.

But if, as the ministry and TNA tell us, all the resorts are already full, where are these people going to stay anyway?

The bottom line is that Phuket's visitors are paying less for their accommodation and spending less while they are here.

WHILE ON the topic of the record high season of 2007-2008, we now have accommodation figures for the January-March period of 2009 that show a 20.44 percent drop by comparison.

Nation by nation, the decline won out with the Swedes (75,607 down 7.76 percent) towering head and shoulders above others in the quarter. Finland (47,685, up 4.92 percent) Australia (40,613, down 19.26 percent) Russia (37,685, down 4.60 percent) Britain (35,688 up 21.05 percent) Germany (33,880, up 10.24 percent) Denmark (26,893, up 14.66 percent) France (22,767, steady) and Japan (19,893 up 72.40 percent) were the other large contributors.

phuketwan.

Okay. I was thinking about going to Phuket becuase it would be quiet and I could get a good deal. Apparently not. So now, according to this, I'll be driving to either Jomtien or Hua Hin.

Thai PM: Tourist Arrivals Target For 2009 To Be Met
-By Bangkok Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires

BANGKOK -(Dow Jones)- Thailand is likely to meet a target to receive 14 million foreign visitors this year due to improving economic sentiment, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said.

The number of tourist arrivals has gone up significantly since August, he told reporters without elaborating.

Last year, Thailand attracted 14.5 million foreign tourists.

The tourism industry accounts for around 6% of the country's gross domestic product.

easybourse.com

Originally Posted by Spitfire

To be honest, I don't think a lot of Thais give a toss about tourism.

Oh no. Ask any Thai - Thailand is the best country in the world and everyone wishes they could come visit paradise.

They think it is a world class destination. They hate to hear it is not and can't hardly stand the loss of face.

I mean gee whizz, they have the nerve to name a crappy hilltop near Korat the Swiss Alps of Thailand.

Originally Posted by chitown

Oh no. Ask any Thai - Thailand is the best country in the world and everyone wishes they could come visit paradise.

They think it is a world class destination. They hate to hear it is not and can't hardly stand the loss of face.

I mean gee whizz, they have the nerve to name a crappy hilltop near Korat the Swiss Alps of Thailand.

Thais are, delusional? sorry wrong thread

Thais ask me why I left Europe to come to live in Thailand with it's many problems.

Funny what ideas farangs get in their heads about what all Thais think.

Originally Posted by kfjvkjvk

Thais ask me why I left Europe to come to live in Thailand with it's many problems.

What do you tell them?

Originally Posted by Mid

ast year, Thailand attracted 14.5 million foreign tourists.

Bollocks.

Originally Posted by Mid

Thailand is likely to meet a target to receive 14 million foreign visitors this year due to improving economic sentiment, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said.

Very hard to believe.