Thread: Teakdoors stock portfolio

Paragon Shipping PRGN, one of our picks, reported Q1 earnings today..... a 21 percent jump in first-quarter profit that beat expectations, sending its shares up 26 percent so far this morning

Not much change this week, some lost, some gained, and we finished the week about 2 grand better off. The dollar is showing weakness, which is sending up oil and other commods. This is good for this portfolio.



Total gains are about 65K.

Markets just closed witht he S&P500 at 940, theres a good chance it will hit 1050 soon., another big up day, 13,000$ came our way.

Total gains are now about 80,00U$D



This has been a great rally but there has to be some kind of significant pullback. Im considering selling the whole lot if I see 100K profit in the next few days and looking to buy back cheaper at a later date.

^ hey man, you are lagging the market

everyone is up 25% or more

you should be up 130,000 not 80,000

BUY 500 UNG at 14.88

This is an electronically traded fund that tracks the price of natural gas, which is very cheap right now but will rise towards the end of the year when US factory utilisation improves and winter sets in.

I'll take another 500 next week on any dips in the price.

speaking of ETF, I am looking for different ETF in commodities so I can short them. I am very new to ETF, just have been reading how they work technically and internally and it raised my interests.

I would need the followings in commodities Futures:

- a mainstream Oil ETF
- a mainstream Gold ETF
- a mainstream Copper ETF

any experience with those ?

Thanks,

Originally Posted by Butterfly

any experience with those ?

Yes, I sometimes tinker around with them intra day if things are volatile.

Basically there are three types. Ones that give unleveraged returns, one that give double returns and ones that give triple returns. The triple return ones are good for daytrading only as they suffer badly from decay. Its vital than anyone wanting to use these products is aware of what decay is, rather than me try and explain it, use this link for a better explanation than I could do

Originally Posted by Butterfly

a mainstream Oil ETF

For and unleveraged long trade USO is best. For a 2x return DXO is best.
You can short these ETF's in the same was as any other stock.
A 2x leverage short oil to check out is DTO

For a long term hold, when you want to short something, it is better to "short the long fund" for example. If I wanted to short oil now at 2x leverage I would short sell DXO as opposed to buying DTO. This is to avoid decay and to actually benefit from it.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

- a mainstream Gold ETF

Shorting GLD would be my choice or buying DZZ

Originally Posted by Butterfly

- a mainstream Copper ETF

I'm not sure if there are any, and if there are, they will be too thinly traded....no volume. Not good.

Better to go with the etf's for the "basic materials" sector. Long would be UYM and the short one is SMN

More info on the ones I mentioned here and here

I have pulled out of DXO , just taking my profits !

I reckon Oil is going to drop to $50 ish

Apart from Speculation there arn,t any reasons for $70+ per barrel

^ The weak dollar is the main reason for 70$ oil, that, and the fact that the world IS recovering from total collapse in world trade last september.
Oil overshot to the upside to 147$ and it overshot the downside to 36$.

The common perception seems to be that oil should "be" priced at like 50-60$ is in my opinion "fantasy".

Part of the reason this portfolio is commodity based is due to the fact the long term outlook for the dollar is bleak.

Originally Posted by TSR2

I have pulled out of DXO , just taking my profits !

Why? Are you aware that DXO returns are also linked to the monthly t-bill index and that any rises in interest rates will cause DXO to spike. It could go to 25-30 bucks in the next 12 months from its 4.50$ level now.
USA has to start raising rates soon!

^
True ,I expect oil to drop short term , then I will buy back into DXO !

Originally Posted by HermantheGerman

STO might go down to $17 but I'am sure it will be up in the $40 soon.
I call STO my family stock because its for the long run. You know the part with "buy a stock and take a sleeping tablet for 10 years".
Nothing to make a quick buck but now is defintely the time to buy this stock because it is way undervalued.

o.k. 10 years are not over yet, but waking up after 1 year ain't too bad

Nov.20 2008 $13,37
Okt. 24 2009 $24,69

fucking DOW is back to 10,000

and SET was close to 800, but it had fallen to below 700 in the last few days

Oil is back at 75 USD

This market is surreal,

Someone on the BBC was already calling it a bubble.

Time for an update.

First things first. The crude oil electronically traded fund I was holding "DXO" ceased trading about a month ago. Not sure why it was pulled, but pulled it was.

Performance for that was a 96% profit to the tune of 8500$, I'll leave it sitting in the portfolio page for now, but it ceased trading at 4.35$ I'll reallocate the money into a chinese company, ticker, RINO when it pulls back a little from its recent run up. Hoping to get in at around 18$






Don't forget there was 19,582 U$D made earlier (Teakdoors stock portfolio) to be added to the profit shown above

The fertilizer stocks are pissing me off a little, MOS and POT, but maybe there are better days for those stocks on the horizon soon.

In short, grains have started to rip, and have broken out from their long term down trend. Oil is going bananas off the back of the dollar flushing itself down the toilet. Next stop for oil 87$, probably before Christmas. All this will help the fert's bust higher (aided by a BHP Billiton takeover rumour) as you can see by the 7% move in POT today.

Buy 100 Rino 21.35$

The RSI and MACD indicate that RINO is on a downward trend... Under selling pressure today and down 6.5% as of now...

Also, you're still showing DXO on the Bberg portfolio... DXO was delisted and liquidated in the US markets...

I'll be buying RINO into weakness up to 1000 shares total between here and about 18$.....17.59 is where it might settle on this pull back but you cant be sure so why not start nibbling now.

I know also about DXO, did you read post 341?

Full update coming later today.

Sorry, missed the DXO bit on post 341... I'm still a bit light-headed from the AAPL after hours spike last night...

Originally Posted by Muadib

I'm still a bit light-headed from the AAPL after hours spike last night.

I hope you weren't caught short That might really have set your hair alight

Ok, I updated the realized profits list and moved the delisted DXO onto it. This is money in the bank available for DD to spend on clacker down Soi 6.



I'll add an update of the state of play for the unsold element of the portfolio later. looks like the market is heading lower today so there might be a lot of red ink on it.

Buy 100 Rino 21.20$

Originally Posted by Spin

Originally Posted by Muadib

I'm still a bit light-headed from the AAPL after hours spike last night.

I hope you weren't caught short That might really have set your hair alight

I'm long on AAPL having added positions to my portfolio back in July... New targets for APPL are $300, so I'm a happy camper...

Buy 200 Rino 20.36$

Buy 100 Rino 19.45$