Thread: Teakdoors stock portfolio

Where is all this 'money' going anyways? Was it all virtual money? Or did the great sell off put all that money into people's pockets. If it was virtual money than no one is a millionaire until they have cash in hand. There are only virtual millionaires. Spin its all an illusion!

Actually, I hear the same stuff you are saying about a bearmarket rally that will fade. But I can't help but think this is the time to get into the market. I wonder if this movement is going to stump the (I hate to say this nowadays) 'experts' and 'analysts'? Afterall, these people turned out to be wrong wrong wrong about the economy we are in now. So the current logic would say that the experts who now are calling this a bearmarket rally could very easily be totally off the mark. JMHO

Charts from Friday, sideways movement saw the close near where the open was.

Originally Posted by Rattanaburi

But I can't help but think this is the time to get into the market

The mainstream media would love all retail investors to believe that now is a good time to buy. Unfortunatley the mainstream media comes from satan himself. Take a look at the macro economic situation and tell me if you see any improvement that would warrant a continued move upwards?
A good time to put a little into the market was last week with the S&P at the 666 level. Today its 756, that boat is missed. Buying now would be a very bad move indeed. The worst is yet to come, I'm 100% convinced of that.

Well the wheels fell of this rally today, I did say a couple of days ago that the 756-775-800 level would be difficult to crack and today saw things reverse significantly at 775. At that point the dow was up 160 points to 7375 which is a big gain from its lows at 6500 just last week.

The S&P500 had risen 16% from 666 to 775 in just 5 days, that typical of bear market rallies which are notable for their strenght and rate of climb.



The big question is whether this pullback is the end of this "bear market rally" or is it just a healthy pullback before we move higher?

My gues is that the market rolls over here and goes lower, the real estate sector took a real beating today and financials joined in later also. Going on recent history, those two sectors dont change directions too often. The long term trend for both of them is long term is down and theres no development out there that I'm aware of which has changed for me to think a corner has been turned.

Ok, update on the action for the last two days. The rally continues skyward, driven by 100% hope and some flimsy "positive" news.

Tuesday saw gains across the board of about 3%



Today was heading is the same direction until the market get supercharged by news from the Federal reserve that they now had printing machines that could churn out a billion dollars an hour



So last weeks lows at 666 for the S&P500 seem like a distant memory, thats a shame because the worlds economic problems are deffo not a distant memory. That means that the there is plenty more pain to come in the markets, its just a question of, when.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting, the S&P500 is now at a point where it can break out of its long term downtrend. If it moves above 803 and closes above that level then anybody remaining in the market who is short is going to have their ass handed to them on a shiny silver platter.

Meanwhile, the TD portfolio still licks balls at around 20% down

Well the 800-803 level didnt hold and the market drifted lower aided by chatter that the governments plan to print ridiculous amounts of money will not actually solve any of the problems.


Basically, this rally has been driven by hope and not much else, but it is over. Fridays action confirms this as the market has made a "lower low" (meaning todays trading moved below 782) than the previous day.
The day isnt over yet but its clear where things are headed.
The next few days should see that "741" level tested again. That should be interesting.

Its been quite a day.

One of the first things you need to learn as an investor is to ignore news.

News is bullshit, todays action is the greatest example of bullshit news you will ever witness.
The dow ended the day up over 450 points from 7278 to 7745 or a gain of 6.42%
The S&P500 moved up an incredible 51.4 points or 6.94% to 820.

All of this is based on absolute 100% bullshit news that consists of 2 parts:

Bullshit element number 1: Sales of existing homes rose 5% in February.
This number is bollocks, the year on year number was horrific. The 5% gain comes from Januarys number which was ghastly due to most of America being covered in snow and nobody buying houses. 45% of that 5% was banks selling off houses for next to nothing.

Bullshit element number 2: Timmay Geithner announces a hideous plan to team up with private investors to buy toxic bank assets from toxic banks. The entire basis of this plan is pivoting on them finding people to toss up scarce cash for absolute shit assets. Bill Gross from Pimpco and other raging homos might get involved with this. This plan may take months to happen. Dont expect anything overnight.
It might work, then again, it probably wont.
All day CNBC and Bloomberg TV rolled out an endless supply of fully paid up assholes to decalre the start of the "next bull market" Millions of retails investors, have jumped into stocks today. This is a gross error for they will be raped of that investment in due course by the fuckery that is, NYSE.

Meanwhile, the Teakdoor portfolio made 30,000$ today and is now about 17% in the red, much to my eternal shame and chagrin.

Expect this bulllshit rally to continue up towards 865 on the S&P. But just dont forget one thing. There is much more fcukery to come from the US governmint. Expect bad things from this market in the future!

Oh, One thing I forget to add is that Oil now appears to be a stock that trades with the Dow Jones. Today is hit 55$ per barrel even though demand is currently diving from the tp board into an empty swimming pool.

Expect to see diesel at 24 baht per litre any day now. Thats up something like 20% in the last 5 days.

Originally Posted by Spin

Meanwhile, the Teakdoor portfolio made 30,000$ today and is now about 17% in the red, much to my eternal shame and chagrin.

Thats the reason after 5 years of online trading I decided to give it away and go safe.
Now our family cash is with a guy at home who invests the money in commercial properties and A grade secured mortgages.
He doesn't make spectacular gains but has NEVER lost a brass razzo of capital either. While this year earnings are SHITE at around 4.5%, over the last decade hes managed an average return of 12.5%.

Originally Posted by peterpan

While this year earnings are SHITE at around 4.5%

4.5% right now is great. I was getting that on my savings in Uk bank accounts about 6 months ago. Today I get about, erm, sweet FA

I went from getting my rent and lecky and water paid for me to having to shell out myself in less than 4 months

The only time I actually made money consistently was when I followed the procedures of a guy name of D Guppy who had a series of buy indicators and a rigid 2% stop loss policy.
It worked but you spent a lot of money on brokerage fees complying with the stop loss rules.

Originally Posted by peterpan

It worked but you spent a lot of money on brokerage fees complying with the stop loss rules.

Yes, stop losses are essential these days. Losses incurred from hitting stops should be viewed as wins, I think. It shows you that your trade didnt work and that you got out before your shirt went. The broker I use charges 1 U$D per 200 shares bought or sold so theres no reason to hesitate when buying or selling.

Getting stopped out is no problem, in this market another opportunity pops up a couple of hours later

Originally Posted by Spin

Expect this bulllshit rally to continue up towards 865 on the S&P.

Thats what I said on the 24th March over a month ago and exactly that has happened. The market has hit 875 and there currently exists a huge battle between "bulls" and "bears" to drive the market higher, or lower from here. There are a lot of folks out there who believe things are improving, personally I'm not in this camp just yet but might get enthusiastic again in the thrid quarter. Now is too early, especially as the traditional summer slump in stock prices begins in soon, "Sell in May and go away" is the term used. This is the time when many of the big hitters on Wall Street retreat to their Hamptons retreats to sniff coke for a few months. It might present a good buying opportunity to top up the port before the world economy eventually starts to improve for real, (I think) in the fourth quarter of this year.

The portfolio hasnt moved much as the recent rally has been mostly about insolvent financial companies shares gaining about 300%. We're nicely placed to make plenty of coin later this year though, about 10% as of now, the print below shows losses of 70,000 but we banked 20K U$D already as shown in post number 253 here (Teakdoors stock portfolio)



Heres a chart of the S&P500 showing its blistering run up from the "666" lows, its open to huge debate whether these 850-875 levels will hold over the summer though.

UPDATE on FSLR First solar....

First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) reported Q1 EPS of $1.99, far ahead of the $1.51 analysts were expecting. Revenues for the quarter more than doubled year-over-year to $418.2 million, beating consensus estimates of $399.9 million. The company noted that it reached two key production milestones this year; building a total of 1 gigawatt of photovoltaic modules, and its manufacturing costs have dropped below $1 per watt. First Solar also said that the global recession and tightened bank lending will squeeze profit margins for full year 2009 despite federal stimulus grants and loan guarantees for renewable energy.

This traded in the 150$ range before this news broke, in after hours trading yesterday, it jumped to 175$. lets see how it moves today as TD has 600 shares in this company.

^ FSLR now trading at 181.00$ whicj means TD portfolio banked 22,000 U$D.

Decent week in the end, various bits of US economic data painted the picture that the economy is improving. I'm not getting carried away because it could be just the grubbermint messing with the numbers but one thing for sure I noticed this week was that the rally from the 666 S&P500 lows, which has been driven by financials, was led by commodoties for the last 2 or 3 days. Its an interesting development, for sure.

As for the the portfolio, all told, about even now taking into account the 20 grand previously banked. Well maybe ten grand underwater, nothing really.

Once you change Mark to Market in favour of Mark to Fantasy, the numbers can say anything you like. This does not alter the fact that the debt is still real and either has to be defaulted on or (hyper)inflated away.

^ The worlds problems are over! The markets are up so everything is fixed right?


The TD portfolio has risen about 75 thousand dollars in the last few sessions, with a move of over 31 thousand bucks today.



The S&P500 ripped 3.2% higher today to 905 on news that the Chinese economy is improving and some slightly better housing data in the US.

This rally has legs, I'm thinking it could go on to see 1040 / 1100 level on the S&P500.....or 10,000 on the Dow Jones.

The next test is the 940 area which might get hit in the next 48 hours.

Lets see how things pan out........

Another up day for the markets Dow moved up 115 points to 8526 and S&P500 up 17 points to 920.

A little bit more red ink was scrubbed from the TD portfolio, ten grand to the good today so now up 30 grand overall.

Take a peep at this chart for one of our stocks, Freeport McMoran, FCX.

Freeport produces copper, copper is seen as a barometer for world economic condition.
The chart gives you an idea of where the world has been and where it is now with regard to demand for copper, demand for copper dictates copper price, the daily copper price will affect the daily price of Freeports stock. There are other factors involved but the concept is valid.
I've included the buy in points for the TD shares we hold, 1100 in total.
As you can see, some I bought at the top, which were terrible buys, when viewed with hindsight. At that time though, not many people could have predicted that the price would fall from 125$ to 17.50$
Fortunatley for me, I bought 400 shares at 18.60$ which are now 300% to the good.
The average price we hold at is 60.14$.
Recently there are signs that the worlds economy is waking from the coma that Lehman Brothers failure in September last year brought on. It probably wont be a rapid recovery, it might take 2 years to get buzzing again, but things are improving.

^So much to learn.

Some key words:

Deflation trap;
Monetary decoupling;
Tangibles inflation.

You are fond of charts. Google the Weimar charts 1928-1935. Same entry-point paradign, similar policy response, inevitable outcome.

^ is that what you learn from your dodgy "downtown" Seminar ?

come on bkka, be a man, and re-register, you are a bit of a coward to hide behind that new moniker !!!

Not much red ink now, plenty of green not sure how long that will last though because popular consencus is that the market will reverse and move much lower.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the 875-880 level on the S&P500, that could be a key area of support for the market.

So far we're up about 45,000 U$D (including the 19$K banked previously)



Out of all the companies that I bought, only one, "Dryships" (DRYS) has not weathered the world economic downturn well. It has all kind of debt problems and Im not sure what the furture holds for the share price.

The rest of the companies are absolute corkers and will bank us egregious amounts of imaginary coin sooner or later

Most of these companies had the living shite kicked out of their share prices, most are up 100% or more off their lows.
This whole crisis had ruined many folks financially but for the smart ones that bought wisely at the bottom, there will be fortunes made thats for sure.

Best pick so far, ACH, they make Aluminium in China, its up 100% + since I bought it, problem is, I only bought 200 shares, I should have taken 1000.

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

this fella seems quite good well worth a look

Ten grand to the good today.