Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

^^ I think 45-50 Brigades is a tad optimistic. More likely 12-15 will be used for the counteroffensive. This is the number being used by most western sources.

Originally Posted by Troy

I think 45-50 Brigades is a tad optimistic.

It is not, and I have that information directly from a Ukrainian source.

Originally Posted by Troy

More likely 12-15 will be used for the counteroffensive.

Way off the mark. There will be 15 mechanized brigades alone, as well as 3 tank brigades. The rest will be a mix of other units such as artillery, air assault, marines etc.

Originally Posted by Troy

This is the number being used by most western sources.

May I ask which sources?

As Ukrainian commanders gear up for a pivotal counteroffensive to push Russian forces back in Ukraine’s war, 23-year-old Vadym, a military recruit from Kyiv, says he wants to be on its front lines, even if it means losing his life.

“We’re going to die, probably,” Vadym said bluntly, as he trained on Friday at a military camp in Yorkshire, England. He was one of several hundred Ukrainians who volunteered for a five-week crash course in basic training, as what could be one of the bloodiest phases in the 15-month war is set to begin. Like other recruits, he asked to be identified only by his first name.

Vadym said his bleak view of his chances of survival was widely shared among his fellow recruits, all of whom are now halfway through the course.

“They want to fight, and being in hell on the front lines is part of it,” Vadym said, his boyish face covered in camouflage paint. “I realized all the dangers. It just doesn’t matter.”

He stopped himself: “It does matter of course, but still, it is the price we pay.”

It may still be weeks, if not months, before Vadym and others currently going through basic training find themselves in actual combat. The timing of Ukraine’s promised counteroffensive has been kept a closely guarded secret, although Ukrainian leaders have said in recent days they are ready for it.

That young Ukrainians are enlisting now, in time to join a military operation that could slog on indefinitely, evokes comparisons to American men and women who signed up for military duty after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

There is, however, a key difference: The survivors of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan returned to a relatively safe homeland. The Ukrainians who crawled through muddy trenches and stormed a makeshift hotel in training exercises on Friday may be forced to fight for their country’s territory against neighboring Russia for years to come.

And while Western forces generally spend years training, and many who enlist are professional soldiers who want to make the military a career, the Ukrainians have “a different mentality,” said Second Lt. Jordan Turton, a British infantry officer who has been working with the recruits.

“Five weeks ago, one of them was a translator, one of them worked in sales, one of them was a barber,” Lieutenant Turton said. “The overriding feeling is that they want to defend their country, to defend their loved ones, to defend their friends, their family.”

The military exercises in Yorkshire’s rolling green and yellow dales — not unlike the steppe of southeastern Ukraine where parts of the offensive are expected to unfold — were the latest in a mission that has trained almost 15,000 recruits over the last year.

It was carried out Friday by British and Norwegian troops who recently began showing the Ukrainian recruits how to disable drones — a nod at their growing importance on the battlefield, particularly in the trench warfare that has become a hallmark of the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian infantry.

Lieutenant Turton, who underwent his own basic training not too many years ago, said the Ukrainian recruits have been aggressively eager to learn.

“If I’m honest, in terms of looking back at this stage in my training, they’re far better than I was,” he said.

Just a little over six weeks ago, one of the recruits, who gave only his first name, Ihor, was working as a stonemason in Lviv. He said his wife and two children were shocked when he announced he was going to volunteer for the war.

“And when they calmed down, they understood,” said Ihor, who was born in 1990 — the last year Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union. Even though democracy and other Western ideals have always been a part of his values, it was not until recent years that he began to see Russia as a threat, Ihor said through a translator.

“The Russian narrative states that we are brother nations,” Ihor said. “But a brother doesn’t come to a brother with a weapon in his hands.”

Ukrainian Recruits, Wanting to Fight, Train in the U.K. for Counteroffensive - The New York Times

It wouldn't surprise me if Putin went nuclear just over the border if Ukraine get close to Russian territory.

Originally Posted by malmomike77

It wouldn't surprise me if Putin went nuclear just over the border if Ukraine get close to Russian territory.

Dude, where have you been? A day late and a dollar short. Belgrade oblast has been under constant attack by the Ukrainians for days now.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...63794021646337

Stop with the entire nukes BS. It will not happen, if it did the US would open a massive can of whoopass on the ruzzians. Biden already said that the US would smoke the Black Sea fleet and decimate what is left of the ruzzian army in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s cross-border tactics are aimed at destabilizing Russia. Judging by the response, they’re working

Ukraine has opened a new front in its battle to drive out the Russian invader - in Russia. But it is oddly coy about admitting that it has sent troops, fired artillery, and flown drones into its neighbor’s territory.

The operations of Russian citizens, carrying Ukrainian military ID, wearing Ukrainian uniforms and attacking from Ukraine, remain officially opaque. It is Kyiv’s contribution to what’s become known as “hybrid warfare” in the “grey zone” of contemporary conflict.

The two terms provoked books and a tsunami of excited opinion from an army of pundits when Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014.

Back then, “Little Green Men” in peculiar two-tone sport-hunting uniforms – and Russian military fatigues – appeared in Crimea.

When it was suggested that maybe, just maybe, these men were actually Russian troops, Vladimir Putin quipped “You can go to a store and buy any kind of uniform”.

Moscow’s official line was that the men who raised the Russian flag over Simferopol and stormed Crimea’s local parliament were “self defense units” of pro-Russian Ukrainians anxious to bring their territory under Moscow’s rule.

By the time Moscow admitted that its troops were actually in Ukraine, a large chunk of the 23-year-old, former Soviet nation was under Putin’s control.

Now, on a small scale, Ukraine is adapting those same tactics to try to secure strategic effect.

The Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom for Russia Legion – which fall under Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence structure – have been conducting short cross-border raids into Russia.
The principal aim? Destabilization.

While the terminology and methods may have evolved, there’s nothing new about the tactic. Aside from Russia, South Africa’s apartheid regimes used similar techniques through the 1970s and 1980s, attacking the Frontline States of Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

Pretoria sent troops on cross-border raids to destabilize the independent African nations opposed to its racist rule. They often posed as local liberation fighters in classic “false flag” attacks against civilians, trying to undermine support for liberation movements.

These groups were frequently formed of fighters from Angola, or Zimbabwe, to add “authenticity” to the atrocities they hoped to attribute to others. They were often led by white men in blackface camouflage.

The long term aim – and many times, the result - was to keep the nations supporting South Africa’s internal liberation struggle permanently off-balance.

Russia rattled

In Ukraine, it suits Kyiv to have Russians invade Russia on its behalf.

The tactical results may be limited. Brief incursions into small border villages. But the desired effect of destabilization in Russia is achieved.

Russian TV has been awash in breathless, and terrified, reports by local journalists on the artillery attacks against Russian towns.

The governor of Belgorod – the region worst hit by the latest Ukrainian campaign – has evacuated hundreds of civilians, has been in personal telephone contact with Putin, and has already picked up a bravery gong for his efforts.

Meanwhile the Freedom for Russia Legion is posting advertisements on its Telegram channel for drone pilots to join its ranks.

It may, or may not, be behind the growing numbers of drone strikes that have hit Russian territory, from the Kremlin and the upscale Moscow suburbs favored by Putin’s allies, to the cities of Kursk, Smelensk and Krasnador.

The point is to make the attacks inside Russia feel like they have a significant Russian flavor - to suggest that more Russians are heeding the dissident “Cry Freedom” and joining in a homegrown effort to depose Putin.

Both the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom for Russia Legion claim to have supporters in their home country.

They may indeed. Someone unleashed the blue and white flag of the Russian opposition movement over Moscow last week. Someone’s helping with either flying, or training, drones onto Russian targets.

As far as Ukraine is concerned, the more Russians think that their compatriots are involved in attacking the Russian regime the better. Doubt itself is destabilizing.

Judging by the rhetoric coming from Russia, it’s working.

Opening a meeting with his Security Council on Friday, Putin said “ill-wishers” must be prevented from destabilizing Russia.

He said the council would focus on ensuring domestic political security, taking into account the enemy’s intensified efforts “to stir up the situation within the Russian Federation.”

“We must exert every possible effort not to allow them to do this under any circumstances,” Putin added.

War coming home

Ukraine could ask for no greater ally in this strategy than Yezgeny Prigozhin, the outspoken leader of Russian mercenary group Wagner.

“Wagner PMC wants at least of one month of recovery as it was a tough job, tough year… And then there will be the next scuffles, I think, most likely this time on Russian territory,” he said after the incursions and drone attacks against Russia.

As a bonus for Kyiv, Prigozhin went on to lambast Russia’s military leadership. The Russian chain of command was “controlled by clowns who just treat men as cannon fodder,” he said, adding, “then we won’t be part of this chain.”

On the drone attacks on Moscow over the past week, he had this to say to Russia’s generals: “You stinking animals, what are you doing? You are swine! Get up off your asses from the offices you’ve been put in to defend this country.”

Dmitry Medvedev, a close Putin ally, was similarly rattled by the extent to which war has come to Russia. He reacted with something close to hysteria.

“It’s clear what response is needed: They need to be annihilated, not just in a personal capacity, but we have to destroy them in the hornets’ nest itself. The regime that has developed in Ukraine should be exterminated,” said Medvedev.

He may sound like a Nazi but his words contained sinister echoes of the genocidal Holodomor of the 1930s, when, under the Soviet Union, an estimated three million Ukrainians were deliberately starved to death, middle class farmers were eradicated and the Ukrainian language banned.

But such fulminations may not impress ordinary Russians.

The Belgorod governor says dozens of strikes hit border districts inside Russia over last day or so.

In a long post on his Telegram channel, Vyacheslav Gladkov said that much of the incoming fire was artillery and mortar against border districts. There had been damage to roads, property and vehicles, he added, while 12 people had been injured in 24 hours in the border town of Shebekino.

One woman who spoke to a pro-Russian Telegram channel said Shebekino was “on fire, the battles there are ongoing,” adding: “We have fled the city. “

“There are very few of our people there. Previous days with all the shelling - there was almost no response, no (Russian) military. We were left on our own,” the unnamed woman said. CNN is unable to verify her account of events.

But her views may spread. And Russia’s response to the campaign on its soil may destabilize its military campaign inside Ukraine - and with it the politics at home.

Ukraine's cross-border tactics are aimed at destabilizing Russia. Judging by the response, they're working | CNN

^ It is a good tactic by Ukraine. Send Russians to fight Russians so only Russians will die. A suicide mission really but it will test the response of the Russian military and give Russia a small taste of what Ukraine is getting.

Originally Posted by Stretchy

A suicide mission really but it will test the response of the Russian military

It is not a suicide mission as none of these incursions have resulted in large loses aside from one KIA. The response is clear. It was chaos with no real forces being sent because the ruzzians have no troops internally.

Originally Posted by Stretchy

Russian military

The "best" died last year now we are deep into the conscripts. All the "trainers" have been sent, they died, All of OMAN was sent they got smoked, Spetnaz is totally smoked. What is left?

Originally Posted by bsnub

The "best" died last year now we are deep into the conscripts. All the "trainers" have been sent, they died, All of OMAN was sent they got smoked, Spetnaz is totally smoked. What is left?

You could be right, but are guessing

is not a suicide mission as none of these incursions have resulted in large loses aside from one KIA

Are they still in Russia now? Or did they retreat back to Ukraine? If only one killed, why retreat?
What is your source of only one killed?

^ They are skirmishes, which often move back and forth to probe and cause problems. However, I think one killed is just BS. Even the RVC announced 2 killed. I doubt it was as many as the Russian estimate of 70 but there must have been casualties.

Originally Posted by bsnub

The "best" died last year now we are deep into the conscripts.

Many of the best Russian troops were killed last year but quite a few survived and they have been behind the front line with conscripts being used since then.

However, you fail to understand that numbers eventually win a war of attrition. Just ask the Americans or French in Vietnam.

Originally Posted by pickel

Can you name an invading country that won a war with low morale?

Let's put this in the correct context, can you name a country that won a war of attrition with less men?

Ukraine needs to win the political battle, it can never win in terms of attrition, not even with the help of the West unless a full scale war is declared.

Originally Posted by Troy

Let's put this in the correct context, can you name a country that won a war of attrition with less men?

You're being a bit presumptious in thinking Russia has already introduced the men required to win a war of attrition to the battlefield.

Like I said:

Originally Posted by pickel

Do you think the Russian people would be okay with another massive mobilization?

Not to mention the materiel required for those men to use. Russia is depleting their inventory, and Ukraine is replenishing theirs.

^ Well, that's not quite true is it. Russia still has the means and is building more military equipment. Ukraine is relying on supplies from the West.

There needs to be a breakdown in Russia, one that topples the current Putin regime. Ukraine cannot rely on the West forever.

Originally Posted by Troy

Many of the best Russian troops were killed last year but quite a few survived and they have been behind the front line with conscripts being used since then.

Yet you say my posts are BS. Over the course of this war all the "quality" units the ruzzians had have been attritted and in some cases many times over. I doubt you can name one specific ruzzian unit that has not been ground into dust by the Ukrainians. Just as an example, the first guards tank army (ruzzia's most "elite" tank army) has been smoked 3–4 times.

Beaten Twice In Ukraine, Russia’s Elite 1st Guards Tank Army Is Poised To Attack Yet Again

The ruzzians are down to just conscripts.

Originally Posted by Troy

can you name a country that won a war of attrition with less men?

Vietnam did it in 1979 against China, Finland did it against the ruzzians during the winter war of 39-40. Just two examples.

Originally Posted by pickel

You're being a bit presumptious in thinking Russia has already introduced the men required to win a war of attrition to the battlefield.

The ruzzians are scraping the bottom of the barrel for manpower.

Originally Posted by Troy

Russia still has the means and is building more military equipment.

Barely. The sanctions have crippled production, and the ruzzians have a fraction of the manufacturing capacity of the old Soviet Union. Production of new units is barely a trickle and is hardly enough to sustain the ruzzian war machine.

I think you are applying a very dated metric to this war by thinking that the Soviet model is still intact. It isn't, it dissolved in 1991 and the old Soviet industry has been deteriorating and/or been dismantled since.

Originally Posted by Troy

There needs to be a breakdown in Russia, one that topples the current Putin regime.

And that's exactly what would happen if Putin tried to do another massive mobilization to reach the attrition levels you speak of. Their modern war systems also require a lot of Western parts and electronics, parts that are no longer available to them.

Originally Posted by Norton

10 times the economy to sustain the war.

Absolutely incorrect. The ruzzian economy is the size of Spain's, and it is currently reeling due to sanctions. It is not sustaining the war now let alone in the future, as I stated before its production capacity is a fraction of its wartime consumption and that is why it has almost completely exhausted its war stocks even recently sending T-55's to the front.

Originally Posted by Norton

No way can the Ukraine achieve their stated "win" objectives of retaking and holding all territory occupied by Russia, including the Crimea.

A lot of distinguished Generals and experts would disagree with you.

Originally Posted by Troy

There needs to be a breakdown in Russia, one that topples the current Putin regime.

Exactly why Prigozhin moved Wagner back into ruzzia proper. He even said so himself.

Originally Posted by Norton

Depends who replaces Putin. Possible a regime far worse than Putin's will take control. There are a couple waiting in the wings.

There's also a couple waiting in jail.

Russian TV airs apparent deepfake video of Putin ordering martial law amid reports Ukraine is on the attack

A fake Putin declared in a video address that Ukraine's army invaded Russia and he's ordering martial law.


The fake video was aired, due to a reported hacking, in border areas where anxiety is already high.


Russian sources reported increased Ukrainian attacks at positions along the front lines on Monday.


Something was slightly off about the Russian President Vladimir Putin whose emergency address was broadcast into some Russian homes on Monday. The deep lines in the 70-year-old leader's furrowed brow seemed to disappear too smoothly as his expression changed.


That's because it was apparently a fake, and a stunning one at that.


Appearing with the caption, "President's emergency appeal," the seemingly digitized Russian leader says that Ukraine's army has entered three border regions where he's declaring martial law and urges listeners to "evacuate deep" into Russia. Some TV and radio stations in these areas aired it due to what Russian officials called a hack; they did not identify any culprits.


"Definitely there was no address. It is true that there were hacks in some regions," said Putin's chief spokesman Dmitry Peskov, according to the state-run TASS news agency. "In particular, I know that there was a hack into Radio Mir and into some networks. Now all this has been eliminated and taken under control."

Unease has been growing in Russia's border areas in recent weeks as small groups of armed anti-Putin Russian militants have stormed past border guards, forcing heavy military responses to expel them. The message delivered by fake Putin via television and radio seemed to play to these anxieties.


"Russians, brothers and sisters, today at 4 am, Ukrainian troops armed by the NATO bloc with the consent and support of Washington invaded the territories of the Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions," the announcement begins, according to a Russian account of the fake address. As it continues, Putin supposedly then goes on to order a mass mobilization, a step sure to trigger widespread concern that he's so far resisted taking in full.


The timing of the fake broadcast is also notable because Russian sources reported increased Ukrainian attacks at multiple positions along the long front lines on Monday. US satellites also detected movements and more activity from Ukraine's forces, The New York Times reported. Only time will tell if these moves are part of their looming counter-offensive to retake stolen land.

Russian TV airs apparent deepfake video of Putin ordering martial law amid reports Ukraine is on the attack

Originally Posted by Norton

“There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.”
― Lao Tzu

Reading through this thread clearly many need to heed Lao Tzu's advice.

None more than Putin.

Originally Posted by bsnub

A lot of distinguished Generals and experts would disagree with you.

Good for them. Guess as just a non expert old git with a fair amount of war history knowlege and first hand experience has it all wrong.

Russia is already defeated and will give up and withdraw from all occupied areas in short order. Got it!

Originally Posted by pickel

None more than Putin.

Definately!

Originally Posted by Troy

can you name a country that won a war of attrition with less men?

Originally Posted by bsnub

Vietnam did it in 1979 against China, Finland did it against the ruzzians during the winter war of 39-40. Just two examples.

?....