RIP Bitcoin

**Ukan Kizmiaz** · 04-01-2021, 05:25 AM

34% up overnight -

**jabir** · 04-01-2021, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by ChalkyDee

I had 5x BTC 3.5 years ago but only got x now. I remember buying at 88,000 baht.
Most of my portfolio is DOT, UNI, OMG, BNB, LINK, ZIL, COSMOS

Your money, and of course you have reasons to invest hopefully not too much in some of those, but if you put a gun to my head I would say stay with BTC and the premier league (BCH, ETH, etc. even XRP once their case is settled, which it should be, out of court, otherwise among other things the SEC will need to explain why they sat on it for so many years - to the detriment of investors they are paid to protect).

BTC halved last May, and just like 2012/13 and 2016/17 this lead to a price spike with fewer being issued, now 6.25/10m or 900/day; it has halved 3x from 50/10m, and by the time of its next halving to 3.125/10m in 2024/25, 33k will look cheap.

From its current 33k it could quickly run to 50, or correct and consolidate around 24-20; some say 15-17, though I doubt it will drop below its previous high of 20. When it does correct that's when the alts should kick in but only for a short while because once rested BTC will be going places. Stay with grandpa.

Few reasons in brief, aside from political/economic woes: Paypal are looking for 70% of mining capacity, Square (Jack Dorsey) claim 40% of mining capacity; obviously they can't both hit their target, but that takes care of everything that hasn't yet been mined. Meanwhile, generally conservative big money is waking up, some 20-25% of US currency in circulation was printed last year, much of which is looking for a home, as retail and institutional black holes are quietly appearing all over the place; Grayscale (institutional, bought 3x mining capacity in Nov/Dec, and have unfilled orders for more while charging a 25-34% premium!), Skybridge, Ruffer, a slew of hedge funds, mayor of Maimi is considering a raid on his treasury, banks and institutions are certainly collecting discreetly at these low prices (that's right), while some companies will be looking very healthy indeed when they start adding their crypto holdings to the balance sheet.

Supply and demand; who is selling? Of 18m circulation, an estimated 10% has been lost forever, while the founder Satoshi (group or individual) probably has a million stashed away. Hodlers are up from 50m to 200m and counting from 2016/17, a major spike in addresses, addresses hodling <10 BTC, and addresses with no movement in a year (many reasons for that, including zero intent to sell), while exchange holdings are severely down which says people have pulled their BTC offline and into storage; iow, they're not selling.

And as ever, something for the hecklers: Maybe they can live together, but BTC could in time pose a dominance challenge to gold, which has a market cap of c$12-14tr, and wins in many areas; durability, accessibility, acceptability, divisibility (100m units, try paying $26.43 in gold), scarcity, privacy, portability, ease of transfer and storage...

Am I predicting a runaway 200-300k by end of next year? First things first, we can discuss that at 50 this year.

Stay safe, have fun, lots to choose from but stay with the brand.

**Edmond** · 04-01-2021, 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by jabir

Am I predicting a runaway 200-300k by end of next year? First things first, we can discuss that at 50 this year.

Have one set of 3 put away for 333k each.

No rush.

**lom** · 04-01-2021, 01:27 PM

Originally Posted by Edmond

Have one set of 3 put away for 333k each.

virtual hodling..

**Edmond** · 04-01-2021, 01:31 PM

Like my shadow, there 'e is. :-)

**Ukan Kizmiaz** · 04-01-2021, 01:44 PM

eth +48% - fuck a doodle doo.

**Edmond** · 04-01-2021, 03:42 PM

There's a correction a comin'

Buy back in at the 60% bounce.

**baldrick** · 04-01-2021, 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by Bozo633

Will end in tears for most.

what part of blockchain and distributed ledger can you explain to the rest of us ?

**jabir** · 04-01-2021, 05:49 PM

Originally Posted by Bozo633

Many many sheeple wanting to jump on the get rich quick bandwagon. Will end in tears for most.

It often does end in tears for most, but the world is changing and blockchain is part of that change, no less than the internet and smart comms were a couple of decades ago. Those who got in early are larfing, and imo the latecomers will be joining them soon.

Not difficult, do the math relating to supply and demand, link that to BTC scarcity, and tell us which kind of people controlling hundreds of billions are prepared to chuck it all away on an emotional pipe dream.

**jabir** · 04-01-2021, 05:55 PM

Originally Posted by Edmond

There's a correction a comin'

Buy back in at the 60% bounce.

20% in a day (34600 - 28000) is some correction, but a third of that was recovered in 10 minutes and no hurry for the rest, today or next week.

**Edmond** · 04-01-2021, 06:05 PM

Originally Posted by jabir

20% in a day (34600 - 28000) is some correction, but a third of that was recovered in 10 minutes

Sanook

December '17 already turned my stomach to iron.

Originally Posted by jabir

20% in a day

1st new crash

Originally Posted by jabir

a third of that was recovered in 10 minutes

1st new bounce.

Let's see what the third is

We want blood, we want blood

**baldrick** · 04-01-2021, 06:29 PM

I think BTC will be between a rock and a hard place soon enough and its inability to produce a consensual fork will be an epiphany

**jabir** · 04-01-2021, 06:54 PM

I'm no expert, but lookadat!

**jabir** · 05-01-2021, 11:59 AM

Originally Posted by Edmond

Have one set of 3 put away for 333k each.

No rush.

We can meet at the trough when that happens.

**OhOh** · 05-01-2021, 03:57 PM

Originally Posted by jabir

ell us which kind of people controlling hundreds of billions are prepared to chuck it all away on an emotional pipe dream.

I suspect some "controllers" are more interested in stoking the frenzy, thus recruiting more sheep into the game.

Pulling rugs once their profit target is hit. SOP

Those who already have their stack are happy. Good luck to you all.

**jabir** · 05-01-2021, 07:08 PM

Well, let's see how accurate the 'experts' are; my pet vulture says btc is heading for breakout tonight/tomorrow, to new highs (>36k) or down to 25-26 and likely toward 22 over the next week or two.

Dumb as it sounds, and it tool a while to comprehend, down is much better; it's due to retrace anyway so let's release some of the steam, and consolidate for the next push. If breaking up, already overheated and with an overdue correction, it could quickly soar beyond 40 (unlikely but possible), and then go EU-style pop to below 20.

The good news is there doesn't appear to be too many traders here, and no matter how stiff the correction it makes zero difference to hodlers.

**baldrick** · 06-01-2021, 04:18 AM

Bitcoin mining pools in the US will need to comply during audits

“Clean block mining” that adheres to the Office of Foreign Asset Control’s (OFAC’s) compliance standards and reduces the risk of mining blocks that include transactions linked to nefarious activities

is you corn clean ?

**jabir** · 07-01-2021, 07:09 AM

Target met comfortably, next is 38400, and then 40000.

Anyone following the US$ index? Those notes have been printed into oblivion, with more to come, and the effects are clear; add to that unhealthy news that's filtering through, if civil unrest breaks out in the US we could be at 80-100k sooner than expected.

Are holders holding, or is anyone trading?

**Edmond** · 07-01-2021, 08:06 AM

ETH looking damn nice too.

**Edmond** · 07-01-2021, 08:39 AM

^^ Just switched some profits into ETH and XRP for longterm (3-5 years).

**jabir** · 07-01-2021, 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by Edmond

ETH looking damn nice too.

ETH is doing well in $ terms, but waay underperformed btc; good news is it's aiming for the ATH and if gets there could make a serious move to close the btc-eth gap.

Not financial advice, but imho we're going to see a $1.5k eth soon, then 2 toward 2.5k.

Edit: My pet vulture says ETH could see 10k, not tomorrow, but possibly within a couple of years, and here's the kicker which ought to be a clue, much depends on where btc goes. Anyway, it can never reach 10k or even 5k without taking on 3k, so let's revisit when it hits the easier targets.

**jabir** · 07-01-2021, 11:58 AM

Originally Posted by Edmond

^^ Just switched some profits into ETH and XRP for longterm (3-5 years).

Good luck with xrp, it'll probably rise in $ value on the back of btc and eth, but nowhere near to scale. The past couple of months I've been trying to coax my nephew into accepting his massive xrp losses and move into btc; in Nov he would've got 2.1-2.2 btc, now about 0.2 but still better than staying emotional.

Not confirmed, but I hear some big hands have or are in the process of dumping their xrp, while many smaller fish are switching to xlm.

**Edmond** · 07-01-2021, 12:22 PM

Currently prepping a last 5-10year hodl play.

**baldrick** · 07-01-2021, 02:02 PM

Originally Posted by jabir

Not confirmed, but I hear some big hands have or are in the process of dumping their xrp, while many smaller fish are switching to xlm

not me - I got rid of both years ago

bitcoin will have fork issues again soon enough - it has an inability to really upgrade as the miners have shown they cannot reach consensus

ETH is still fully centralised - upgrades happen when decided upon by vitalik and they have shown in the past that even though they say code is law , they are happy to break it when it suits them

**Ukan Kizmiaz** · 07-01-2021, 08:42 PM

i've held a small bag of nano for years so its been a helluva couple of days

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