Thailand : PM to Decide on House Dissolution in 4 Months

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Originally Posted by Calgary

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Originally Posted by Panda

The thing is that the "authoritarian billionaire" got into power and stayed on top by actually playing to the needs of the poor masses. Abhisit is now trying to out bid him for those same crucial votes. Which is a good thing for the people of Thailand. Thats the way democracy is supposed to work. Only fly in the ointment is of course the military who have the self appointed ability to come in and set the clock back if they and their ruling class partners dont like the way things are going.

"A deep socialist agenda" however is indeed unlikely to happen as you say. Just throw some crumbs to the hungry pigeons and they will flock around you. No need to treat them like equals. But its a process in evolution, and as the population become more educated and aware of their rights in a democracy, all politicans will have to move more towards a fairer and more equitable agenda.

Its a move that the military will not be able to stop. And I believe that their days of influence over politics by force of arms (coups) is virtually over. The corrupt judicary is the last line of defence the oligarchy has now. However, corrupt individuals within the judicary are more easily controled by governments than the military leaders who can actually put tanks on the streets and shoot people who dont agree with them. Most Thais, due to their culture, are basically cowards and will roll over when the tide turns against their favour. So, when the military arm of the oligarchy falters and weakens, its more than likely that the majority of the judicial arm will roll over and change sides to actually support a democratic government.

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Your comments are well taken Panda. Your references to the various "arms" of the Oligarchy are spot on. Calling the judiciary and the military arms of the Oligarchy is excellent imagery.

I would add another "arm"....that being the PAD.....In my view, the PAD is the 'protest' arm of the oligarchy. Some people are writing off the PAD, but I dont think so. The oligarchy created a protest capability as a facade of popular discontent with the elected Government they wanted out of the way. The way the PAD was formed from the top down and being an arm of this Oligarchy means they can be resurrected anytime street protests are required.

The oligarchy created the PAD....a coup created the Red Shirt Democracy Movement

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Somebody more knowledgable than me on these matters, corrected my POV, that the PAD is the protest arm of the oligarchy.

In her opinion, The PAD can very easily be resurrected by the oligarchy, because their underpinning is the military. It is her view that beneath all that yellow PAD garb, are actually soldiers posing as normal protesting citizens..... Not all, but many...... So to call the PAD a separate arm of the oligarchy as I did, is questionable. It was her POV that the PAD is just the military in another form....Hmmmmm.

The one piece of evidence that would support this POV are those PAD encampments during their heyday. If you recall, they were professional military style encampments. Occasional bomb blasts (for effect) were also miltarily induced.

Just some added historical perspective perhaps.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255404240004

Democrats: Pheu Thai political campaign is a tool for Thaksin.

BANGKOK, 24 April 2011 (NNT)- Democrat Party Spokesperson MD Buranat Samutrak stated that the debut of the Pheu Thai Party political campaign was mainly to meet the expectations of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

He pointed out that despite severe repercussions of political conflicts, several mass protests and conflicts of interest on the country, the Pheu Thai remained firm in its objective to grab state power in order to secure the return of self- exiled Thaksin Shinawatra.

Dr. Buranat also alluded that Pheu Thai’s political campaign had been designated by Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra himself in order to gain a stronger role in the government. This campaign trail is highly reliant on the efficiency of each party leader rather than selling policies.

Therefore, the nomination of Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra as a potential candidate for Prime Minister should be interpreted as a move for Pheu Thai’s own gains rather than national benefits.

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Originally Posted by sabang

It really does seem to me that this Thaksin obsession is every bit as chronic with the Dem supporters as it is with the most fervent Thaksin 'loyalists' in PT & the UDD.

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It's bizarre enough that a fugitive can run a proxy govt., but now he's taken center stage campaigning and making promises himself as if it was him running for PM.

As I asked before; does anyone know how a govt. would be able to grant amnesty for ppl charged with terrorism and corruption? Surely it's a judicial matter?

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Originally Posted by Buksida

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Originally Posted by sabang

It really does seem to me that this Thaksin obsession is every bit as chronic with the Dem supporters as it is with the most fervent Thaksin 'loyalists' in PT & the UDD.

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It's bizarre enough that a fugitive can run a proxy govt., but now he's taken center stage campaigning and making promises himself as if it was him running for PM.

As I asked before; does anyone know how a govt. would be able to grant amnesty for ppl charged with terrorism and corruption? Surely it's a judicial matter?

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yeah, especially when he's banned from politics...

I guess the judiciary will have to be 'reformed' :)

I expect lots of boxes with pastries to be sent....

One wonders how someone convicted of a crime, with an outstanding prison sentence is going to overturn that conviction. I imagine the Thaksin fan club wont be complaining about it if/when it happens.

He's had plenty of time to appeal the sentence, but I guess he views the judiciary as corrupt (which of course it is) and liable to go with the present government (despite a couple of cases that he had being dropped by the same current "corrupt" judiciary). So I guess his only option is to get his sister in, 'reform' the judiciary (read; put in people that are his friends) and then he will be able to get the charges dropped and resume his political career.

Got to win the election first though.

Interesting times ahead.

^ But that would mean the judiciary isn't a tool of the Evil Amart and instead just another corrupt bunch who can be bought.

^ Indeed, but I think the judiciary can be acquired by whoever is in power at the time it seems....

Anyway, I am sure they will want to 'reform' the judiciary if they get back in power...

indeed, and Democracy will flourish in Thailand, with peasants making millions, and the poor driving expensive cars

it's all going to be a big happy family according to our conservative fascist friends :)

haven't we heard that shit before ?

terryfrd Terry Fredrickson

Chavalit, Sanoh and, interestingly, Mingkwan did not attend PT's big event yesterday / CH3

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Originally Posted by Calgary

Somebody more knowledgable than me on these matters, corrected my POV, that the PAD is the protest arm of the oligarchy. In her opinion, The PAD can very easily be resurrected by the oligarchy, because their underpinning is the military. It is her view that beneath all that yellow PAD garb, are actually soldiers posing as normal protesting citizens..... Not all, but many...... So to call the PAD a separate arm of the oligarchy as I did, is questionable. It was her POV that the PAD is just the military in another form....Hmmmmm. The one piece of evidence that would support this POV are those PAD encampments during their heyday. If you recall, they were professional military style encampments. Occasional bomb blasts (for effect) were also miltarily induced. Just some added historical perspective perhaps.

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It's an interesting angle, but I doubt it could ever be satisfactorily proved/disproved. For sure, all long-term rally/protests cost substantial money to mount and sustain - and I don't recall seeing credible claims that the expenses of the PAD operations were all met by what went into collecting tins or the profits from selling ASTV-branded goods etc. Plainly, the money and other necessary support has to come from somewhere. Naturally, much the same is said of "red" protests.

Freelance photographer Nick Nostitz has often commented that he saw the same faces at both yellow and red protests - usually functioning as "guards", stewards etc - "foot soldiers" in a way. The implication, of course, is that these individuals were not ideologically motivated but paid to be there. That many would have military experience is not surprising given Thailand's conscription policy and arguably the (let's say) strata from which many if not all these individuals come.

I also wouldn't make too much of "professional military style encampments". It's a description that could be equally well applied to a scout jamboree - and, in any case, no side has a shortage of senior ex-military personnel in its "ranks".

As to the bomb blasts, there are as many unproven theories as to who was responsible on one side as on the other; perhaps I should say "others" - given so much talk/speculation about "third hand" involvements. People tend to come down on their choice of interpretation according to their existing political viewpoint/prejudice. Given that so much of all this resembles nothing so much as smoke and mirrors, I'd say it's nigh on impossible for us non-players/non-insiders to get at the real truth(s) of the matter. Unless/until that changes somehow, I find myself generally in the "undecided" camp. Wild claims are made from both/all sides; when examined, some are easily exposed as being less than substantial or credible - others aren't.

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Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

^ Indeed, but I think the judiciary can be acquired by whoever is in power at the time it seems.

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Of course, that's why there was no 'judicial coup' in 2008 because PPP acquired the judiciary and PAD had no influence over it. :rolleyes:

What drugs do you smoke?:confused:

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Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

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Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

"Eliminate the drugs problem within 12 months and eradicate poverty within four years."

"Minimum corporate income tax would be reduced from 30 per cent to 23 per cent within the next year."

"Fresh university graduates would be guaranteed a minimum monthly salary of Bt15,000 and the minimum wage will be set at Bt300 per day."

[...]

So, Thaksin fans....how are these wonderful promises going to be accomplished?

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Getting rid of the drugs problem in 12 months may be a stretch and guaranteed wages of 15,000 for new Uni grads might be difficult. But more or less all of these are possible in a country where even Korn-head says is growing by 7% annually. So - what are you talking about?

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It is fairly easy to understand Tom. In fact I thought it was self-explanatory.

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Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer https://teakdoor.com/images/td_defaul...s/viewpost.gif
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Originally Posted by StrontiumDog https://teakdoor.com/images/td_defaul...s/viewpost.gif

"Eliminate the drugs problem within 12 months and eradicate poverty within four years."

"Minimum corporate income tax would be reduced from 30 per cent to 23 per cent within the next year."

"Fresh university graduates would be guaranteed a minimum monthly salary of Bt15,000 and the minimum wage will be set at Bt300 per day."

[...]

So, Thaksin fans....how are these wonderful promises going to be accomplished?


Getting rid of the drugs problem in 12 months may be a stretch and guaranteed wages of 15,000 for new Uni grads might be difficult. But more or less all of these are possible in a country where even Korn-head says is growing by 7% annually. So - what are you talking about?

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So we have a country where:
The judiciary can be bought
A fugitive can run a proxy govt and campaign while in exile
An army that frequently comments on politics and thinks it's OK to take control
Color coded political groups with shifting agendas, armed militants
Insurgency in the south and an on again off again war with Cambodia

With all this going on the Proxy Thaksin Party may have a hard time fulfilling their promises.

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Originally Posted by English Noodles

Of course, that's why there was no 'judicial coup' in 2008 because PPP acquired the judiciary and PAD had no influence over it

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so you are saying that the judiciary acted independently ? thanks for proving our point :)

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Originally Posted by English Noodles

Your getting confused, Rodders. Do try to keep up, old bean.

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Sorry about that "noodless" you're right... it's just on occasions I subconciously consider you and "mid" to be like a siamese twin fan club! :)

In future I'll pay less attention and try to keep up at the same time, tally ho old boy! :england:

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Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Try to be honest.

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Sure, heres some 'Honest for Dummies' then-

https://teakdoor.com/Gallery/albums/u...ndi_th66ex.jpg

This is a chart of Real (Google it:rolleyes:) GDP growth in Thailand from 2000 - 2009 inclusive.
Thaksin was in office 9 February 2001 – 19 September 2006
The chart is from a site called Indexmundi.com- Thailand - GDP - real growth rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year

From where did you concoct the fact his tenure was during a period of "unprecedented economic growth'? PAD propaganda :rofl:- it is clearly nonsense.
As the graph clearly shows, 2000 and 2001 the Thai economy was weak.
Asia in general, Thailand in particular, was still suffering from the effects of the Asian financial crisis- which it in fact precipitated. During this crisis, the bht devalued by over 50% to the USD, and the SET lost around 70% of it's value. There was a massive exodus if expats from Thailand, and from the city back to the moo ban- as millions were thrown into unemployment. Basically, Thaksin took over during the aftermath of the economic collapse, and with Thailand still very much suffering from a crisis of confidence, massive debt and massive unemployment. His Keynesian stimulus package was a success on many levels (not least for me because I was managing an Asian fund). Interesting days.

Feel free to check this for yourself. The IMF had to bail out Thailand- and the debt was actually paid back four years early, in 2003 from memory. Guess who was PM then?
You are certainly entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. I am sure you can find plenty of things of substance to criticise your preferred hate figure without concocting them, or naively swallowing Bangkok manufactured propaganda which, speaking as one who was there at the time, is in several cases nothing short of lies.

If you believe the nonsensical, manufactured 'yellow' stuff now, Thailand under Thaksin was a grim place, and heading towards financial collapse. Actually, the opposite is the case- the difference in business optimism approaching the mid 00's was the polar opposite of the late 90's & early 00's. Check any indicators you want during this period- currency, stock market, employment growth, repayment of debt etc, they were all very good. That seems to have evaporated around 2005, as the PAD protests geared up, and Thai economic growth slowed.

It is really quite amazing what people will believe, or agree to believe, to support their political view.

A quick glance at the graphs for Malayasia, Indonesia and Vietnam shows similar patterns (I'm not clever enough to post the images).

Maybe it was Thakki's leading role in ASEAN that helped it's fellow members, things like promoting regional tourism through an 'open skies' policy. Now that was a bold move.

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Originally Posted by English Noodles

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Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

^ Indeed, but I think the judiciary can be acquired by whoever is in power at the time it seems.

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Of course, that's why there was no 'judicial coup' in 2008 because PPP acquired the judiciary and PAD had no influence over it. :rolleyes:

What drugs do you smoke?:confused:

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I've always found it useful to think of PPP's 2008 tenure as very much a "short-term let" - with the "notice to quit" being prepared very early on..... even if it was only served piecemeal through the year by a combination of supposedly separate actors. Obviously enough, being in office doesn't automatically equate to being in power and having the key levers of power at your disposal.

^^ As is the way with these things, there was a load of hype and nonsense about too. Such as Thailand (and Thaksin) becoming a 'potential Asean leader'. Takkie's corruption and nepotism was already well known, and very much high profile because of the massive infrastructural projects happening at the time. I can tell you he was not popular in HK- but at least we didn't fabricate nonsense about his stimulus package, which was overall an unquestioned success, and exactly what Thailand needed at that time.

^ I'm not doubting his stimulus packages helped, they also came at the right time, which I think is what SD is getting at.

If you can post the graphs for other SEA countries (I can't), the pattern of decline and growth is similar.

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Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255404240004

Democrats: Pheu Thai political campaign is a tool for Thaksin.

BANGKOK, 24 April 2011 (NNT)- Democrat Party Spokesperson MD Buranat Samutrak stated that the debut of the Pheu Thai Party political campaign was mainly to meet the expectations of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

He pointed out that ...

Therefore, the nomination of Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra as a potential candidate for Prime Minister should be interpreted as a move for Pheu Thai’s own gains rather than national benefits.

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The fact the PRD (Government's Public Relations Dept) keeps posting these partisan news reports on its site is just a hoot. Are there no rules or codes of conduct? Isn't the PRD's role just to pass on info about government programmes and govt press releases, etc? Now they are they press agents for the Democrat Party as well!

Why am I not surprised though.:rolleyes:.

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Originally Posted by Buksida

I'm not doubting his stimulus packages helped,

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it didn't really help actually, it fueled inflation and started to give certain class of citizens a sense of entitlement with all the "welfare" they were getting

it was basically cash given with nothing in return, the worst possible use of financial resources, as they were all buying booze, DVDs and mobiles of course

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Originally Posted by Butterfly

it was basically cash given with nothing in return, the worst possible use of financial resources, as they were all buying booze, DVDs and mobiles of course

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Mobile phones are a useful economic tool and increase production and save time.
This was the refrain of the PADists: "Thaksin's giving the peasants money to squander on motorcycles and mobiles." Particularly nauseating given that it came from status-conscious hypocrites who made sure they had the latest car and phoner/

^^ I genuinely find it hard to believe you are actually in the investment business BF, it just doesn't ring true.

What about the strong performance of the BHT, SET, real estate prices, economic activity in general (eg GDP growth), employment figures, average wages. FDI, and the impressive paydown of Thai government and even corporate debt? It's all there, on paper.

Vs. that, your 'point' is that the peasants got a sense of entitlement :rolleyes:. They always had one actually (since 1932, off and on), it is described as the right of universal suffrage. But yes, they learnt it's value under Thaksin. Disgraceful- when did the French peasants learn it themselves incidentally?

Furthermore CPI inflation is much worse now than it ever was under Thaksin. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by sabang

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Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Try to be honest.

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Sure, heres some 'Honest for Dummies' then-

https://teakdoor.com/Gallery/albums/u...ndi_th66ex.jpg

This is a chart of Real (Google it:rolleyes:) GDP growth in Thailand from 2000 - 2009 inclusive.
Thaksin was in office 9 February 2001 – 19 September 2006
The chart is from a site called Indexmundi.com- Thailand - GDP - real growth rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year

From where did you concoct the fact his tenure was during a period of "unprecedented economic growth'? PAD propaganda :rofl:- it is clearly nonsense.
As the graph clearly shows, 2000 and 2001 the Thai economy was weak.
Asia in general, Thailand in particular, was still suffering from the effects of the Asian financial crisis- which it in fact precipitated. During this crisis, the bht devalued by over 50% to the USD, and the SET lost around 70% of it's value. There was a massive exodus if expats from Thailand, and from the city back to the moo ban- as millions were thrown into unemployment. Basically, Thaksin took over during the aftermath of the economic collapse, and with Thailand still very much suffering from a crisis of confidence, massive debt and massive unemployment. His Keynesian stimulus package was a success on many levels (not least for me because I was managing an Asian fund). Interesting days.

Feel free to check this for yourself. The IMF had to bail out Thailand- and the debt was actually paid back four years early, in 2003 from memory. Guess who was PM then?
You are certainly entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. I am sure you can find plenty of things of substance to criticise your preferred hate figure without concocting them, or naively swallowing Bangkok manufactured propaganda which, speaking as one who was there at the time, is in several cases nothing short of lies.

If you believe the nonsensical, manufactured 'yellow' stuff now, Thailand under Thaksin was a grim place, and heading towards financial collapse. Actually, the opposite is the case- the difference in business optimism approaching the mid 00's was the polar opposite of the late 90's & early 00's. Check any indicators you want during this period- currency, stock market, employment growth, repayment of debt etc, they were all very good. That seems to have evaporated around 2005, as the PAD protests geared up, and Thai economic growth slowed.

It is really quite amazing what people will believe, or agree to believe, to support their political view.

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Gee-whiz, it looks almost the same as this graph, but this is for the USA...and if you know anything about the global economy, then the worlds fortunes are tied very closely to America's.

https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2011/04/3004.jpg

You see Sabang, economies don't tend to operate in isolation. Unless you were asleep you will have been aware of a massive global economic expansion in the years 2000-2008 (not PAD propaganda, but I thought it was common knowledge, apparently not!), followed by a massive slowdown afterwards. Thailand is an export led economy and thus it is particularly sensitive to global fluctuations. Something which again should be obvious. Again, it seems it is not.

See a graph from the very site you linked to for global GDP growth 2003 to the present. Can't post it as it is a Flash image.

World GDP - real growth rate - Economy

I'm a little surprised you've resorted to defending Thaksin over his economic performance. He was in the right place at the right time and reaped the benefits, both to his reputation and personally! Although both were arguably ill-gotten.

Finally, from the site you linked to, which explains things which appear to have passed you by....(oh, and Panda....)

Thailand Economy - overview - Economy

Economy - overview: With a well-developed infrastructure, a free-enterprise economy, generally pro-investment policies, and strong export industries, Thailand enjoyed solid growth from 2000 to 2008 - averaging more than 4% per year - as it recovered from the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Thai exports - mostly machinery and electronic components, agricultural commodities, and jewelry - continue to drive the economy, accounting for more than half of GDP. The global financial crisis of 2008-09 severely cut Thailand's exports, with most sectors experiencing double-digit drops. In 2009, the economy contracted 2.2%. In 2010, Thailand's economy expanded 7.6%, its fastest pace since 1995, as exports rebounded from their depressed 2009 level. Antigovernment protests during March-May and the country's polarized political situation had - at most - a temporary impact on business and consumer confidence. Although tourism was hit hard during the protests, its quick recovery helped boost consumer confidence to new highs. Moreover, business and investor sentiment remained buoyant as Thailand's stock market grew almost 5% during the three-month period. The economy probably will continue to experience high grow well into 2011.

I guess you'll be acknowledging your error in judgment then :)

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255404240011

Pheu Thai claimed it did not copy the Democrat´s policy

BANGKOK, 24 April 2011 (NNT)-Pheu Thai Spokesperson Mr. Prompong Nopparit denied his Party had ever copied the Democrat Party’s policy. He has also called on the government to come through with its promise to solve problems for the Thai people before dissolving the House.

Following a remark by Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij which accused the Opposition Party to have used the same policy on the speed train line and minimum wage rise, Mr. Prompong claimed those belonged to his Party from the beginning.

Meanwhile, he proposed that his party’s approach on minimum wage increase was to raise it by offering tax reductions to businesses. He urged the Government to ease the rising costs of living for the Thai people as well as border issues and political matters before dissolving the House.