Thailand : PM to Decide on House Dissolution in 4 Months

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Originally Posted by Panda

The thing is that the "authoritarian billionaire" got into power and stayed on top by actually playing to the needs of the poor masses. Abhisit is now trying to out bid him for those same crucial votes. Which is a good thing for the people of Thailand. Thats the way democracy is supposed to work. Only fly in the ointment is of course the military who have the self appointed ability to come in and set the clock back if they and their ruling class partners dont like the way things are going.

"A deep socialist agenda" however is indeed unlikely to happen as you say. Just throw some crumbs to the hungry pigeons and they will flock around you. No need to treat them like equals. But its a process in evolution, and as the population become more educated and aware of their rights in a democracy, all politicans will have to move more towards a fairer and more equitable agenda.

Its a move that the military will not be able to stop. And I believe that their days of influence over politics by force of arms (coups) is virtually over. The corrupt judicary is the last line of defence the oligarchy has now. However, corrupt individuals within the judicary are more easily controled by governments than the military leaders who can actually put tanks on the streets and shoot people who dont agree with them. Most Thais, due to their culture, are basically cowards and will roll over when the tide turns against their favour. So, when the military arm of the oligarchy falters and weakens, its more than likely that the majority of the judicial arm will roll over and change sides to actually support a democratic government.

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Your comments are well taken Panda. Your references to the various "arms" of the Oligarchy are spot on. Calling the judiciary and the military arms of the Oligarchy is excellent imagery.

I would add another "arm"....that being the PAD.....In my view, the PAD is the 'protest' arm of the oligarchy. Some people are writing off the PAD, but I dont think so. The oligarchy created a protest capability as a facade of popular discontent with the elected Government they wanted out of the way. The way the PAD was formed from the top down and being an arm of this Oligarchy means they can be resurrected anytime street protests are required.

The oligarchy created the PAD....a coup created the Red Shirt Democracy Movement

^^ to "assume" that an authoritarian billionaire would create the conditions for greater democracy is beyond naive, it's plain stupidity

choosing your dictator is not an expression of Democracy,

xxxxx

Odds favour Thai PM in coming election, but unrest a worry | Reuters

Odds favour Thai PM in coming election, but unrest a worry

https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2011/04/2910.jpg

By Ambika Ahuja and Jason Szep
BANGKOK | Sat Apr 23, 2011 9:09am IST

(Reuters) - When television broadcasters suddenly went off the air in Thailand recently, many people thought it could only mean one thing: the start of a military coup.

Authorities were quick to assure the public the three-hour blackout on April 21 was the result of a faulty satellite, not a putsch. But the coup speculation in a country that has seen 18 military takeovers since the 1930s illustrates the depth of uncertainty ahead of elections in late June or early July.

The odds favour the Democrat Party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in the coming poll. But he's unlikely to win by a comfortable margin. And regardless of who prevails, neither side may respect the result.

If Abhisit loses, his royalist and military backers are unlikely to give way quietly, possibly using judicial intervention or a coup to restore the status quo.

But if he wins, the red-shirted supporters of his political nemesis, self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, could take to the streets in a new wave of anti-government protests.

Siripan Noksuan, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said Thailand's five-year political crisis could intensify if Abhisit fails and the Thaksin-allied opposition Puea Thai Party wins.

"If Puea Thai manages to form a government, against all odds, there would likely be a coup," she said. "If there is another coup, it will be a big turning point for Thailand. The resistance will be strong and would likely bring bloodshed."

The poll is 46-year-old Abhisit's first popular test, giving him a chance to answer accusations he came to power illegitimately in 2008 when a court dissolved the ruling pro-Thaksin party and the military helped to piece together his coalition.

His party has not won an election in nearly two decades and the British-born, Oxford-educated premier has always struggled to connect with Thailand's working-class masses.

But several factors are in his favour: the opposition is in disarray, Thailand's economy -- Southeast Asia's second largest -- is performing strongly, and Abhisit has rolled out a raft of populist economic policies and subsidies targeting the poor, the vast majority of voters.

His campaign staff say his strategy is to convince voters Thailand should look ahead rather than dwell on its troubled past, especially the weeks of unrest last year in which 91 people were killed, Bangkok paralysed and the government was nearly felled.

His victory could give Thailand a rare dose of policy continuity after four changes of government since 2006. That's encouraging for investors eager for a continuation of the status quo following a 41 percent rise in Thai stock prices last year. Stocks and the baht currency are up again this year.

But Abhisit is unlikely to win decisively. That means Thailand can expect another coalition government and more back-room deals with shady figures in smaller parties, a recipe for corruption.

"That is really what is pulling this government back, this kind of coalition government that relies on appeasing demands of smaller parties and giving them control of the Commerce Ministry and various other important ministries," said Danny Richards, Southeast Asia specialist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

"It really undermines the quality of policymaking. It is unlikely to change," he said.

Although the mostly working-class red shirts say they will honour the outcome, any perception of foul play or behind-the-scenes interference could trigger an ugly backlash.

"THAKSIN THINKS, PUEA THAI ACTS"

The opposition is launching its campaign on Saturday with the slogan: "Thaksin Thinks, Puea Thai Acts", hoping to tap the popularity of the 61-year-old ethnic-Chinese telecommunications tycoon whose party was the first and only one in Thai history to win two landslide elections before he was toppled in a 2006 coup.

He was later convicted of breaching conflict-of-interest laws and sentenced in absentia to two years in prison.

But he is still idolised by many rural and urban working-class voters, a figurehead and assumed financier of the red shirt protesters who occupied swathes of Bangkok for nine weeks last year and battled troops in clashes that killed 91 people. From his villa in Dubai, he is effectively running the opposition, mostly through webcam teleconferences.

Still, his party is in disarray and has no clear candidate for prime minister. Most reckon his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, would be in line for the job.

Internal power struggles that pit pro-Thaksin parliamentarians against red shirt protest leaders have driven at least 10 of the parliamentarians to defect this year, fueling speculation more could leave for other parties as the poll draws closer.

The party has also been on the defensive over accusations by the military that anti-monarchy comments were made from the stage of a red shirt protest that drew 40,000 supporters on April 10, a serious charge in a country with the world's toughest lese majeste laws and where 83-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej is widely revered.

"There is a bit of discomfort among some that the party's agenda is being driven by the street movement and not the other way round," said Pornthep Thepkarnjana, a former justice minister and close ally of Thaksin. "That is driving a wedge between different groups."

The resignation of political heavyweight and former premier General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh as opposition chairman on April 18 has also been a setback. His role was to build bridges to the military establishment and to show that the opposition was loyal <snip>

ECONOMIC TOLL

The broader question is whether the election can end a political crisis marked by two years of violent street protests, the takeover of Bangkok's two main airports in 2008 by royalist yellow-shirted protesters and questions <snip>

The unrest and frequent changes in government are taking a toll on Thailand's $320 billion economy, said Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Atchana Waiquamdee.

"Policy that has been accepted and improved by one government, when the new government comes, it becomes uncertain," she told Reuters. "Government officials who have some duty to deliver government policy, if they perceive this is a short-lived government ... projects are postponed."

The Democrat Party's campaign manager said a big election win would allow them to roll out infrastructure projects, raise wages by 25 percent over two years and strengthen strategic agro-business and tourism industries.

"We need an investment strategy to make Thailand more competitive, to raise the standard of living, and we cannot do that without a big win," Korbsak Sabhavasu, also the party's deputy leader, told Reuters.

Korbsak expects the Democrats to continue to dominate in the south, gain ground in the lower-north and lose some seats in the central region. Analysts say the polarised electorate makes it hard for either side to win a majority, but Korbsak says there may be a "tipping point" where Abhisit gains enough to dominate.

The two unprecedented landslides won by Thaksin in 2001 and 2005 on a wave of populist policies allowed him to push ahead with long-term spending programmes and formulate infrastructure plans, earning him support from foreign investors.

But Thaksin's exit led to a purge of most of the top technocrats, with plans either delayed, revised or scrapped. The worry for investors is that a Puea Thai-led government could bring another unsettling change of the guard, pushing Democrat spending plans off the table.

Finance Minister Korn Chatikavani said the unstable political environment was holding back investment and stifling the economy, which most expect to grow by 4 percent this year.

"Our natural rate of growth should definitely be something at least around 7 percent for the next several years," he told a recent Reuters forum. "We have been held back from realising our potential for obvious reasons for the past three or four years."

^ Edited out a couple of bits. Click the link to see the original.

Democrat: In case Pheu Thai wins the election, Thaksin will return


Democrat: In case Pheu Thai wins the election, Thaksin will return

Published on April 23, 2011 by TFP

BANGKOK, 23 April 2011 -Democrat Spokesperson MD. Buranat Samutarak said if the Democrat won the election, his Party would continue with its policy to address and solve public problems quickly. He said if the results suggested that the Pheu Thai Party won, he believed Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra would be nominated as the Prime Minister.

Dr. Buranat said the next poll would be important and that Thai people would vote for their favorite candidates rather than for their policy. If the Democrat Party receive the majority votes, its priority will still be to pay attention to the problem of the Thai public.

He forecasts that if Ms. Yingluck becomes the next premier, the first thing she will do is to grant amnesty for the Red Shirts and bring her brother who is an exiled leader, Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra, back to Thailand. He added that this will only bring another chaos to the nation, the most important question for Ms. Yingluck is what will she do for the Kingdom once she is elected and nominated Prime Minister.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255404230011

Thepthai slams Pheu Thai for copying Democrat’s policy

BANGKOK, 23 April 2011 (NNT) – Spokesperson to the Democrat Party Leader Thepthai Senpong has voiced suspicion over the similarity of the Pheu Thai Party’s policy to that of the Democrat while believing Pheu Thai is trying to push Ms Yingluck Shinawatra as the next premier.

Commenting on the opposition Pheu Thai Party’s policy unveiled today, Mr Thepthai pointed out that it barely differed from the policy of the Democrat Party made public earlier. Considering similarities, which ranged from the high-speed train to increases in salary and minimum wage, the Spokesperson remarked that the opposition party’s policy might as well be called a copycat. He also noted that it was interesting to see former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra presiding over Pheu Thai’s event to announce the policy.

Furthermore, Mr Thepthai said it was obvious that Ms Yingluck, as a younger sister of Mr Thaksin, would be fielded by the Pheu Thai Party in the upcoming general election, citing that movements within the opposition party had hinted much support for her. However, he challenged the prospective candidate of Pheu Thai to show some leadership, claiming that he had never heard any political opinions from her.

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Originally Posted by Calgary

Your comments are well taken Panda. Your references to the various "arms" of the Oligarchy are spot on. Calling the judiciary and the military arms of the Oligarchy is excellent imagery. I would add another "arm"....that being the PAD.....In my view, the PAD is the 'protest' arm of the oligarchy. Some people are writing off the PAD, but I dont think so. The oligarchy created a protest capability as a facade of popular discontent with the elected Government they wanted out of the way. The way the PAD was formed from the top down and being an arm of this Oligarchy means they can be resurrected anytime street protests are required.

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I think both your posts illustrate clearly what's happened and what is currently happening and it's clear the Thai chinese "ogliarchy" will not accept defeat easily or gracefully, but by definition they are the minority, so it's interesting to see what unfolds. Despite the so called free polls supposedly indicating Abishit winning by a narrow margin, that'll only happen if they can successfully corrupt the voting system.

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Originally Posted by Butterfly

to "assume" that an authoritarian billionaire would create the conditions for greater democracy is beyond naive, it's plain stupidity choosing your dictator is not an expression of Democracy,

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"pupa" as usual your consumed by your dislike of one man... Thaksin and to talk about stupidity is rich coming from someone like you.

Not one person with any brain is assuming anything, you are obsessed and with not one point worth listening to. Are you an ignorant belgy or are you Thai chinese by any chance because you certainly post like a ignorant chinese yellow supporter!

Thaksin was and is popular not lesst because he had and has vision and he got thing's done in Thailand whether you like it or not. If he made one mistake he under estimated the power of the elite and ignored their dislike, envy and hatred of him which of course brought about his downfall.

Jesus, Panda posts a few good thoughts of his own and SD makes a fool of himself so reverts to spambot mode to try and bury his stupidity.

Classic stuff.:deadhorsebig:

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Originally Posted by English Noodles

Jesus, Panda posts a few good thoughts of his own and SD makes a fool of himself so reverts to spambot mode to try and bury his stupidity.

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What's the matter "mid" wrong time of the month for you is it?

Godddddddddddddd you're one to talk, you haven't had an original thought of your own for thousands of posts.

Stick to copy and pasting your safe that way.

Wanker!

Your getting confused, Rodders. Do try to keep up, old bean.

Thaksin woos voters with promises, ready to return and 'serve the people'

Thaksin woos voters with promises, ready to return and 'serve the people'

By The Nation on Sunday
Published on April 24, 2011
https://teakdoor.com/images/smilies1/You_Rock_Emoticon.gif

Fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra expressed confidence yesterday that the Pheu Thai Party will win the upcoming general election and said he was ready to return and "serve the people" if he was needed.

Thaksin addressed a gathering for two hours via video link yesterday at an event to launch the party's political campaign platform and its candidates. The event was broadcast live through red-shirt satellite TV, Asia Update.

Most Pheu Thai bigwigs and a number of red-shirt leaders, including former chairman of the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship Veera Musigapong, were present at the event.

Introducing the slogan "Pheu Thai is ready to run the country, allow us to think again, work again, for all Thais once more", Thaksin stressed his loyalty to the throne and went on to try to defend his record at length.

The event, at Thammasat University's Rangsit Campus Convention Hall, began with video footage showing the "success" of Thaksin's previous policies, such as the Bt30 Medicare plan, the war on drugs campaign, village funds and more.

Thaksin later promised to increase the village fund by Bt1 million per village if the opposition Pheu Thai, of which he is the de-facto leader, wins.

Pheu Thai Party leader Yongyuth Vichaidit asked the thousands of attendees whom they missed the most and got a rousing response "Thaksin!" several times. In his address, Thaksin insisted that he still holds Thai citizenship and loves Thailand but needed foreign passports in order to travel around because his Thai passport had been confiscated.

<snip...edited out quote, check the link>

He added that he agreed with the latest regulation of the Election Commission (EC) barring all political parties from mentioning the monarchy for electoral gains.

Thaksin said Thai democracy had been on the decline since the Democrat Party came to power and people have become fearful of a possible military coup over and over again.

He urged the EC to ensure a free and fair election and asked all parties to accept the electoral outcome.

Thaksin said no one should try to interfere with the working of the legislative, executive and judicial branches.

He urged Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha to defend Thailand's sovereignty and not become a political tool.

Thaksin also urged the amendment of the current charter, which was sponsored by the military junta in 2007, and a return of justice to those affected by the coup in 2006.

Thaksin then vowed that the party, if elected, would solve the flood problem in Bangkok for good by building a mega-dyke some 30 kilometres in length as in the Netherlands.

Thaksin also vowed to reclaim some 300 square kilometres of land from the sea around Samut Prakan and Samut Songkram provinces and build a new city with an excellent environment and rail link to Bangkok and acting as an IT and financial hub.

The former premier also promised:

_ Ten new electric rail lines would be introduced in Bangkok with a fixed fee of Bt20 per ride.

_ New flats and houses would be built to allow students and poor people to rent at Bt1,000 per month.

_ Some 25 river-basin areas would also be improved and water channelled from Burma, Laos and Cambodia.

_ Build a bullet train line from Bangkok to Chiang Mai as well as to other cities like Nakhon Ratchasima, Hua Hin, Rayong

_ Building a two-track rail line linking Bangkok's vicinity together

_ Extend the airport link rail to Chachoengsao province and Pattaya

_ Construct a land bridge linking the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea.

_ Eliminate the drugs problem within 12 months and eradicate poverty within four years.

_ Debt moratorium to those owing between Bt500,000 to Bt1 million for three to five years.

_ Unmilled rice would be guaranteed at Bt15,000 per tonne.

_ Minimum corporate income tax would be reduced from 30 per cent to 23 per cent within the next year.

_ Fresh university graduates would be guaranteed a minimum monthly salary of Bt15,000 and the minimum wage will be set at Bt300 per day.

_ A Bt1-billion fund would be created to help state and private universities.

_ Tax deductions for those buying their first home or economy car.

_ The oil-subsidy fund would be managed reasonably and alternative energy sources such as wind, solar and water would be developed.

_ Thai food will be promoted abroad and Suvarnabhumi Airport will be developed into a regional travel hub.

Regarding the southern violence, Thaksin admitted he had been too hard when he was the premier and said dialogue is needed. He said the region should be turned into a special administrative zone like Bangkok or Pattaya.

PM may dissolve House on May 6

PM may dissolve House on May 6

By The Nation on Sunday
Published on April 24, 2011

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is likely to seek royal endorsement for dissolving the House of Representatives before he leaves for an Asean summit in Indonesia on May 6, a government spokesman said yesterday.

Panitan Watanayagorn, deputy secretary-general to the prime minister who also acts as the government spokesman, said that Abhisit is scheduled to leave for the Asean summit in the evening of May 6 and return on May 8.

"The prime minister said that he expected to submit the decree on House dissolution for royal endorsement before May 6. That will be within the first week of the month as has been scheduled," the spokesman said.

Bangkok Post : Thaksin launches platform

Thaksin launches platform

RECONCILIATION, MEGA PROJECTS PUSHED; NO WORD ON PUEA THAI CANDIDATE FOR PM

• Published: 24/04/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has announced the Puea Thai Party's policy platform under the "Thaksin Thinks, Puea Thai Does" campaign.

https://teakdoor.com/images/smilies1/You_Rock_Emoticon.gif
THE WORD FROM ON HIGH: Thaksin Shinawatra, former prime minister and de facto leader of the Puea Thai Party, addresses party members at Rangsit campus of Thammasat University through a video link system yesterday.

The package consists of seven policies for reconciliation, three mega projects and 24 social and economic development schemes.

Thaksin announced the package yesterday through a two-hour video link at a Puea Thai Party meeting at an auditorium in Thammasat University's Rangsit campus.

About 5,000 people attended the meeting, while thousands of party supporters gathered outside the auditorium. The meeting was broadcast on satellite television.

Thaksin said the policy platform was based on proposals submitted to him by key Puea Thai figures such as Olarn Chaiprawat, Mingkwan Sangsuwan, Chaturon Chaisaeng and Noppadol Pattama.

Under the seven policies for reconciliation, the opposition wants to see a fair general election that is free from intervention.

Observers from around the world should be invited to observe the election and all parties must accept the results, he said.

"Non-parliamentary power must not be used to form a government. Governments should no longer be formed in the military barracks, as in the past," Thaksin said.

He said powers outside of those of parliament should not be used to intervene in the operations of the executive branch, the legislature, the judicial process and independent bodies underpinned by the constitution.

These independent bodies must also strictly adhere to the principles of justice and equality.

<snip>

Thaksin said he has heard that there have already been attempts to interfere in the election.

He claimed members of the Internal Security Operations Command have been dispersed to urge voters to vote for the Democrat Party.

<snip

Thaksin, however, stopped short of naming the party's candidate for prime minister.

"Just wait for the moment the party files the application. The person is the party's first party-list candidate," Thaksin said.

<Edited out quite a bit, click the link, but lots of repetition, tried to keep it as intact as possible>

So, to save me wading through 50 pages of pontificating, did the PM decide on house dissolution within 4 months or not, yay or nay?

Great list of policies and it all sounds fantastic, hell, I'd vote for him....but then you look again...

"Eliminate the drugs problem within 12 months and eradicate poverty within four years."

"Minimum corporate income tax would be reduced from 30 per cent to 23 per cent within the next year."

"Fresh university graduates would be guaranteed a minimum monthly salary of Bt15,000 and the minimum wage will be set at Bt300 per day."


And you realise it is total rubbish....none of the above are viable. Needed yes, great policies, sure...but there's no way they can happen.

So then I am left wondering what else on the list of great policies is total garbage.

^^ LOL

No, but May the 6th is being mooted as the day. I guess we can finally close this thread then...

My wife protested against Thaksin early on when people turned against him. She just told me she will vote for his party. Thaksin is probably right about his party taking the nation. What is the invisible hand going to do about this?

well at least he has concrete ideas,

the 30 THB was a complete scam, and yet the public fell for it, getting poor service at higher price than they already used to pay. But in terms of marketing, it was a great success.

Thaksin is selling his policies like he is selling mobile packages. The sad thing is that Thai politicians are so blind, they can't do any better :p

that's the tragedy in all this, they keep choosing the wrong people because the alternative is even worse

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Originally Posted by Butterfly

to "assume" that an authoritarian billionaire would create the conditions for greater democracy is beyond naive, it's plain stupidity

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But of course- to support liberal democracy in Thailand we need only invite the Generals back in the door.

Bangkok logic. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by sabang

But of course- to support liberal democracy in Thailand we need only invite the Generals back in the door.

Bangkok logic.

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again, with the PAD, you are assuming the country was manageable with Thaksin proxy conspiring for his return

Issaan logic, even when it's wrong and the result is poor, keep doing it

also known as insanity (with the hard sun there, perfectly logical)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Calgary

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Panda

The thing is that the "authoritarian billionaire" got into power and stayed on top by actually playing to the needs of the poor masses. Abhisit is now trying to out bid him for those same crucial votes. Which is a good thing for the people of Thailand. Thats the way democracy is supposed to work. Only fly in the ointment is of course the military who have the self appointed ability to come in and set the clock back if they and their ruling class partners dont like the way things are going.

"A deep socialist agenda" however is indeed unlikely to happen as you say. Just throw some crumbs to the hungry pigeons and they will flock around you. No need to treat them like equals. But its a process in evolution, and as the population become more educated and aware of their rights in a democracy, all politicans will have to move more towards a fairer and more equitable agenda.

Its a move that the military will not be able to stop. And I believe that their days of influence over politics by force of arms (coups) is virtually over. The corrupt judicary is the last line of defence the oligarchy has now. However, corrupt individuals within the judicary are more easily controled by governments than the military leaders who can actually put tanks on the streets and shoot people who dont agree with them. Most Thais, due to their culture, are basically cowards and will roll over when the tide turns against their favour. So, when the military arm of the oligarchy falters and weakens, its more than likely that the majority of the judicial arm will roll over and change sides to actually support a democratic government.

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Your comments are well taken Panda. Your references to the various "arms" of the Oligarchy are spot on. Calling the judiciary and the military arms of the Oligarchy is excellent imagery.

I would add another "arm"....that being the PAD.....In my view, the PAD is the 'protest' arm of the oligarchy. Some people are writing off the PAD, but I dont think so. The oligarchy created a protest capability as a facade of popular discontent with the elected Government they wanted out of the way. The way the PAD was formed from the top down and being an arm of this Oligarchy means they can be resurrected anytime street protests are required.

The oligarchy created the PAD....a coup created the Red Shirt Democracy Movement

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I agree on PAD. But Red Shirt movement started all around the country. Now PAD is used off, except for Cambodia dispute which is a crazy one. 4 more people killed yesterday for what

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Butterfly

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sabang

But of course- to support liberal democracy in Thailand we need only invite the Generals back in the door.

Bangkok logic.

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again, with the PAD, you are assuming the country was manageable with Thaksin proxy conspiring for his return

Issaan logic, even when it's wrong and the result is poor, keep doing it

also known as insanity (with the hard sun there, perfectly logical)

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Isaan logic? Isaan people are as smart as BKK people (many of who come from Isaan) but Isaan people have come more resourceful in circustances. Ask hiso to boil your eggs.

Issaan logic doesn't mean they aren't smart, just that they lack a certain educated or fluid logic

they are extremely stubborn, and that usually leads to more problems than solving them

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Butterfly

Issaan logic doesn't mean they aren't smart, just that they lack a certain educated or fluid logic

they are extremely stubborn, and that usually leads to more problems than solving them

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Now you level with me. Which is nice. Suit you sir?

My point is if there was an end of the world or say current world order, Isaan people would survive while Bangkok people would die.