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Yeah, agenda galore.Quote:
Originally Posted by Buksida
It continues to amaze me how many Farangs get caught up in the agenda of this State Media, when that is all they can read.
They adopt that agenda, and think they have insight.
I admit this is an overgeneralization, but not by much.
Good point about the Nuremberg thing Buksida.
^
Good observation on both above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buksida
Oh, I'm sure it's only because BP's art editor didn't like the shirt colour..... :rolleyes: Still, others have done the same with pics of Sondhi L - and that's a target where the mud is more likely to stick.
Wonder how long they spent deciding whether to flip it horizontally.
For those of you who are limited to the State media, be aware that huge UDD/PT rallies are occurring almost every evening in many locations other than Bangkok.
The other night it was in RoiEt, before that in Khon Kaen and Chiang Mai. Tonight in two locations, in Ubon Ratchantani (sp?) and the other in Surin.
What distinguishes these rallies from exclusively UDD rallies, is that they are a combination of the Red Shirt Democracy Movement and the Phua Thai Party.
What also sets them apart is the massive attendance. If these rallies were sponsored by the other side of the political divide, they would be splashed all over the State Media.
So just because they studiously avoid referencing them, be aware they are happening.
Bangkok Post : Pheu Thai strong in Northeast
Breakingnews >
More than sixty per cent of people in the Northeast would vote for the opposition Pheu Thai Party, according to an opinion survey by Esan Poll released on Thursday.
- Published: 5/05/2011 at 03:57 PM
- Online news: Local News
The Esan Centre for Business and Economic Research (ECBER) at Khon Kaen University conducted a survey on “The Coming Election: Who will be elected by Isan People?” by seeking opinions from 2,354 people in 20 provinces of the Northeast from April 28 to May 3.
The pollsters said 63.9% said they would vote for Pheu Thai, 20.7 per cent of respondents said they would support the Democrats, 9.1 per cent of them backed Bhumjaithai, 5.3 per cent supported Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, 0.7 per cent said New Aspiration (Kwamwang Mai), 0.3 per cent pointed to Matchima Thipatai and 0.1 per cent were for Pracharaj.
Asked whether they already had a political party in mind, 58.9 per cent of the respondents said yes, 33.3 per cent of them had not yet made the decision and 7.7 per cent did not want to exercise their voting right, Esan Poll head Prasert Wichitnopparat said.
^
From Twitter today:
bangkokpundit bangkokpundit [at]
[at]thethaireport [at]tri26 ABAC Poll included undecideds. Esan poll excludes them so skewed slightly. If included PT support drops to around 40%
1 hour ago
Stats are not my strong point, but doesn't the above also indicate one has to take off a third from the reported 20.7% Dem support (if one includes "undecideds" in the total) - revising it to, say, 13-14%? Better than before maybe, but just a tad :mid: different from Abhisit's claim to Forbes Magazine this March:
[my emphasis above]Quote:
Originally Posted by Mid
More detail on the above...
Poll shows strong Pheu Thai support in Northeast
Poll shows strong Pheu Thai support in Northeast
By The Nation
Published on May 6, 2011
The opposition Pheu Thai Party emerged victorious in a poll on voters in the Northeast conducted by Khon Kaen University with 63.9 per cent of respondents saying they backed the party, while 20.7 per cent said they would choose the ruling Democrat Party.
The university's Centre for Business and Economic Research surveyed 2,354 people across 20 provinces in the Northeast, including Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Maha Sarakham, Roi Et, Kalasin, Nong Khai, Chaiyaphum, Loei and Buri Ram.
Prasert Vijitnopharat, who led the study, which was conducted from April 28 to May 3, said 58.9 per cent of the respondents said they had already decided on who would win their vote, while 33.3 per cent remained undecided. Only 7.7 per cent of the respondents said they would not be casting their ballot.
Bhum Jai Thai emerged as the third party with support from 9.1 per cent of the respondents.
Interesting points came up when results were broken down to the provincial level. In Khon Kaen, for example, 65.1 per cent said they would vote for Pheu Thai and 28.2 per cent said they would go for Democrat Party, while support for Pheu Thai dwindled to 41.3 per cent in Nakhon Ratchasima province compared to 28.4 per cent for the Democrats.
Also, in Buri Ram province - Bhum Jai Thai's stronghold - Pheu Thai emerged second with 36.4 per cent support as opposed to 41.3 per cent for Bhum Jai Thai, while the Democrats fell to a mere 19.2 per cent.
In Udon Thani, Pheu Thai proved most popular with 84.6 per cent support and 14.7 per cent for the Democrats. Ubon Ratchathani reported 71.2 per cent support for Pheu Thai and 25.6 for the Democrat Party.
Pheu Thai clearly remains a force to be reckoned with, though 33.3 per cent of the respondents still haven't made up their minds, Prasert said, adding that electoral platforms would still be significant, especially in relation to economic issues.
Abhisit to address nation this afternoon
Abhisit to address nation this afternoon
By The Nation
Published on May 6, 2011
https://teakdoor.com/images/smilies1/You_Rock_Emoticon.gif
PM says he has made enquiries about King's health before seeking Royal Decree on House dissolution
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is scheduled to make a televised address this afternoon, dispelling doubts about his plan to dissolve the House of Representatives and pave the way for a snap election within 45 to 60 days.
"Don't try to interpret my words," he said yesterday. "I have previously said I would submit a Royal Decree on House dissolution by the first week of May and I still intend to carry out my plan."
Abhisit said his televised address would take place before his departure at 4.25pm to attend the Asean Summit in Jakarta.
He said he had yet to submit the decree on House dissolution for royal endorsement.
With regard to the health of His Majesty the King, he said he had made a "discreet inquiry" with the Royal Palace about the appropriate time to bring the decree to the King's attention.
On Tuesday, the Palace announced that a team of doctors had advised His Majesty to refrain from any royal activities after surgery to drain excess spinal fluid. Abhisit pointed out that on that night, a royal command had been issued approving the appointment of Senate Speaker Teeradej Meepien.
The prime minister said he wanted to make it clear he would not impose any strain on His Majesty and that a slight delay would not disrupt the timing of the poll. According to the Election Commission, should the House be dissolved this week or early next week, the balloting can still be held on June 26.
In a final step to prepare for the poll, the Constitution Court is scheduled on Monday to rule on whether the three organic laws on the revamped electoral system comply with the Constitution.
Judge Jaran Pakdeethanakul ruled out speculation that the court might advance its ruling to today, saying the judicial review on pertinent provisions could not be compromised.
In two recent Cabinet meetings, the government has issued specific instructions on the neutrality of civil servants during the campaigning.
The prime minister and Cabinet members pledged to comply with the guidelines of the caretaker government in order to avoid any campaign violations.
Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said he welcomed the campaigning guidelines, specifically the ban on involving the monarchy in campaign speeches.
Suthep said he had instructed police to remain on maximum alert to prevent any campaign-related violence. He understood all major police units had been mobilised to watch for gunmen and any suspicious activities.
Pheu Thai Party spokesman Prompong Nopparit said he was uncertain about the exact date on which the House would be dissolved.
In this paragraph you have over 90% of ppl saying who they plan to vote.Quote:
The pollsters said 63.9% said they would vote for Pheu Thai, 20.7 per cent of respondents said they would support the Democrats, 9.1 per cent of them backed Bhumjaithai, 5.3 per cent supported Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, 0.7 per cent said New Aspiration (Kwamwang Mai), 0.3 per cent pointed to Matchima Thipatai and 0.1 per cent were for Pracharaj.
Then in the following paragraph you have 40% saying they either hadn't made up their mind or didn't plan to vote for.Quote:
Asked whether they already had a political party in mind, 58.9 per cent of the respondents said yes, 33.3 per cent of them had not yet made the decision and 7.7 per cent did not want to exercise their voting right, Esan Poll head Prasert Wichitnopparat said.
Don't these results seem conflicting?
Thai Premier Takes a Risk on Early Elections - WSJ.com
Thailand's Premier Takes a Risk on Early Elections
By JAMES HOOKWAY And ALMAR LATOUR
BANGKOK—Thailand's young, British-born leader is betting that new elections will break the cycle of political violence plaguing one of Southeast Asia's linchpin economies and propel it back into the ranks of the world's most promising emerging markets. His first hurdle is achieving a peaceful vote.
https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2011/05/792.jpg
for the Wall Street Journal Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva
Over the past few years, Thailand's carefully crafted image as a paradise of tropical beaches and investor-friendly industrial zones has taken a beating. Its vibrant economy has been overshadowed by a military coup, raucous street protests and blockades at its international airports. Strict laws stifle antigovernment criticism while the army's leaders sometimes play a royal trump card by accusing dissenters of being disloyal to 83-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej, whom some Thais consider to be almost divine.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, however, says new elections can wipe the slate clean and enable Thailand to go about the business of putting itself at the forefront of a new wave of emerging economies.
He plans to dissolve the country's Parliament as soon as this week, six months before his term ends, and begin preparing for elections late June. The vote will push Thailand "beyond the conflict, move it beyond the protests and really help us reach our potential," he told The Wall Street Journal in an interview at Bangkok's elaborate, Italian-designed Government House.
It is a risky strategy. Mr. Abhisit acknowledges it will be a close-fought election between his Democrat Party and a well-funded opposition backed by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, the man the army kicked out of power nearly five years ago.
https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2011/05/793.jpg
MADAREE TOHLALA/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Mr. Abhisit greets well-wishers during a visit in the restive southern province of Narathiwat on April 30.
Conservative royalists argue that Thailand isn't ready to hold peaceful elections. Some of their members are camped outside the main government complex demanding Thailand wait four or five years before holding a vote. They point to last year's violent street protests, which killed 91 people, as evidence the country still hasn't recovered from the aftermath the 2006 military coup that ousted Mr. Thaksin, the most recent of the many coups Thailand has seen in nearly 80 years since the end of absolute monarchy.
On the other side, the left-leaning Red Shirt protesters have been agitating for a fresh election since taking to Bangkok's streets last year in an effort to bring Mr. Thaksin back from his self-imposed exile. They accuse military leaders of plotting to block the election.
Meanwhile, a border conflict with Cambodia that has so far claimed 17 soldiers' lives is fueling widespread rumors the vote will be called off.
Some observers say an election might not draw as decisive a line under Thailand's recent past as Mr. Abhisit hopes. Michael Montesano, an expert on Thai politics at Singapore's Institute for Southeast Asian Studies, says that even among Thailand's anti-Thaksin establishment, there are doubts that elections are the best way to stabilize the country.
"There are a lot of people who don't think it is the silver bullet he seems to think it is," Mr. Montesano says.
Mr. Abhisit, however, is adamant that the election will go ahead, and that it will represent a political landmark. "I think there are groups of people who may not feel that the elections will solve anything, who are fed up with politicians, but you get that all over the world," he said. "I think an overwhelming majority of Thais want the elections to be a clear process through which we achieve stability and move the country forward."
The prime minister plays down rumors of a coup by the military. "I find it odd that people talk about more military presence or influence in the policies we've adopted," he says. "On the contrary, I think we see the military is now playing its role according to the constitution, and supports an elected government and the policies we adopt."
The election campaign will test the leadership credentials of this 46-year-old, Oxford-educated economist. Thailand is passing through one of the most volatile periods in its complex history, beginning in 2001 with the landslide election of Mr. Thaksin, a telecommunications billionaire with a street-savvy populist streak and a blueprint for remodeling this conservative Buddhist kingdom in his own image.
Mr. Thaksin crafted a series of popular policies that appealed to millions of Thais left behind during the country's economic boom. Affordable health care and better access to credit created a huge constituency that enabled Mr. Thaksin to become the only elected Thai leader ever to complete a full term, let alone be re-elected.
The business mogul's shoot-from-the-hip, CEO-style of leadership, however, rubbed many conservative Thais the wrong way.
Powerful civil servants and army chiefs, in particular, worried his sway over large, rural voting blocks granted Mr. Thaksin almost unchecked power. Some top generals accused him of corruption and of using his populist appeal to undermine the authority of the world's longest-serving monarch, King Bhumibol—something Mr. Thaksin always has denied.
Once the momentum shifted, the coup came quickly. The army ushered Mr. Thaksin from power while he was attending the United Nations' annual meetings, and a new army-appointed government set about dismantling his political machine before restoring democracy in late 2007.
Since then, Mr. Thaksin's support base has expanded into a broad coalition of Red Shirt activists. In 2008 alone, Thai courts removed two of Mr. Thaksin's supporters from the post of prime minister. One was dismissed for accepting token payments to appear on a television cooking show. The other, Mr. Thaksin's brother-in-law, was removed in December 2008 for alleged vote-buying, while royalist protesters blockaded Bangkok's international airports.
Enter Mr. Abhisit, a trim, handsome member of Thailand's old ruling classes. His first move was to set about reviving an economy threatened by events elsewhere in the world.
"When we came in it was right at the height of the global financial crisis," Mr. Abhisit said. "The biggest fear was that we would see a prolonged recession or depression and mass unemployment. That didn't happen. We swiftly put in place stimulus packages and we were able to achieve close to 8% growth last year, and we continue to have a very strong expansion of exports and tourist income."
Mr. Abhisit says he feels his government's economic record should put it in good standing with the electorate at election time. Mr. Abhisit is positive about Thailand's position in the region and says the country stands to benefit from China's growth in years to come.
"People, when there is a rapidly rising economic power, they always feel threatened," he says of his constituents, "but I see opportunities."
Mr. Abhisit welcomes greater engagement from the U.S. in the region. He said he wished that the U.S. weren't as distracted with the Middle East and its own economic troubles, but added that he has picked up signals from the U.S. and President Barack Obama that it wants to engage.
Mr. Thaksin also is focusing the opposition's election campaign on the economy—directing the effort from his home in Dubai.
In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Thaksin said he is pledging large salary increases and cuts in corporate taxes to help invigorate consumer spending. Mr. Thaksin is promising to return home to personally manage Thailand's economy and turn back the clock to the country's boom years—if his allies in Parliament can pass an amnesty law freeing him of an earlier corruption conviction, in addition to terrorism charges for his role in instigating last year's rioting.
The big concern is whether street protesters will accept the results of the polls. Neither Mr. Abhisit's Democrat Party nor the For Thais Party, which is pro-Thaksin, will likely win a majority of the seats in the new Parliament, leaving them to rely on Thailand's unpredictable smaller parties to form a coalition government. That could feed current accusations by some Red Shirt supporters that Thailand's generals already have brokered a series of defections in Parliament to bring Mr. Abhisit to power.
Mr. Abhisit acknowledged the risks. "What's important is to make sure there are no conditions that would spark off a series of protests," he said.
Bangkok Post : Food or tablet computer, which should come first?
Food or tablet computer, which should come first?
While many children in rural schools can barely read and write and, worse, their families cannot afford proper food and rely on the free lunch programme, a Pheu Thai MP has bragged about promising them each a tablet computer - to improve their learning capability.
The opposition Pheu Thai Party is obsessed with computers.
Whenever the general election may be, free tablet computers for all students will be part of the party’s campaign policy platform.
At the last general election, four years ago, one of the party's populist policies was “a notebook computer for every student”.
With the next election expected in July, the party has come up with a "new" idea -- “a tablet computer for each student”.
This amazing idea was thought up by Pichai Naripthapan, a Puea Thai MP and a member of the party’s economic working group.
He proposes that each Thai student, from first grade (Prathom 1) up, will be given a tablet computer free of charge - courtesy of the taxpayers - with ADSL connection or wireless high-speed internet (WiFi).
Mr Pichai explained that a tablet computer would give Thai youngsters from a very tender age access to information and the ability to communicate with others over the internet. This, he said, would enhance their learning potential.
In a modern society the future is an information society and Thai youngsters will be left behind if they do not have computers and are denied access to the internet, he argued.
The Pheu Thai MP also criticised the Democrat Party’s national broadband access policy which, he said, is still just hot air -- nothing at all like his party’s idea of one tablet computer for each student, which would definitely be implemented should be party win government.
Mr Pichai is definitely right about the usefulness of tablet computers, and the internet, in providing access to information which would help our young people's learning curve.
But I ask him one important question: “What makes him think that a Prathom 1 pupil needs a tablet computer?”
How many first graders, on average six or seven years old, in rural schools can read and write the entire Thai alphabet, from Kor Kai to Hor Nok Hook, let alone use a tablet computer to surf the net to look up information?
Of course, first graders in Bangkok and big cities normally do better than their rural brethren in reading and writing. But is it appropriate to give them each a tablet computer in the hope that they will just surf the net for information, and not just stray away into the other more tempting and attractive areas?
Besides the fact that most first graders cannot read or write, many rural areas are still without internet services. This reminds me of an ambitious project of General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh’s New Aspiration party government over a decade ago, to put desktop computers in every government school throughout the country free-of-charge.
It turned out that many rural schools then did not even have electricity, so the computers handed out by the government were simply put on the desks, covered with plastic sheets, and never actually used. Worse still, many of the teachers had never used a computer before, let alone taught children how to use one.
The only beneficiaries of the computer project were the companies which sold the machines to the Education Ministry and the corrupt bureaucrats and politicians who received huge commissions from the deal.
Now we have the tablet computer idea. Those who stand to benefit from it will definitely be the computer companies awarded the contracts and, of course, some of the politicians and bureaucrats involved in the deal.
I fully agree with Mr Pichai that a tablet computer would be very helpful for our youth, but definitely not for kids as young as five. If you give one to any kid, he or she will love it for sure but whether they would be used in the way the Puea Thai MP claims they would be is another issue.
Surely there other things which are far more important and need to be attended to than giving a tablet computer to every child, especially in the rural schools.
Free school lunches for example. Does Mr Pichai have any idea what school kids eat each day? Does the lunch they are provided with have enough protein and nutrients to nourish their physical and mental growth?
How much money per head has been allocated for each child's lunch, and how much of this funding has been stolen by corrupt politicians and officials along the way until the actual money-benefit finally reaches each child?
I know of a rural school in Tha Pla district of Uttradit province. The school has about 200 students and it was reported it received a budget of some 2,000 baht for the lunch programme each week. Now -- 2,000 baht for 200 students' lunches five days a week amounts to just two baht a day for each student.
What can be bought with two baht these days. A glass of iced water, perhaps.
Will our rural youth grow up to become healthy, contributing citizens if their families still cannot afford to feed them properly, even though they may have a tablet computer?
Bangkok Post : District chiefs refuse transfer orders
District chiefs refuse transfer orders
Mongkol's move seen as a political gambit
A number of district chiefs have rejected transfer orders issued by the Provincial Administration Department (DPA) head, saying the directives are unlawful.
Department director-general Mongkol Surasajja on Wednesday signed an order transferring district chiefs and division directors, but some district chiefs will likely disobey the edict and are unlikely to report for their new assignments.
There was also a question of whether Mr Mongkol had the authority to issue any directives. That is because the Office of the Civil Service Commission's merit system protection committee had earlier ordered the interior permanent secretary to cancel Mr Mongkol's appointment as chief of the department, which oversees local bodies.
The committee told the ministry to reinstate Wongsak Sawasdipanich, inspector-general of the Interior Ministry, to the post of department chief.
Mr Wongsak was removed as DPA chief last April over his refusal to endorse the department's 3.5-billion-baht computer leasing deal and the 900-million baht "smart" ID card project.
Observers believe the Interior Ministry's move to transfer district chiefs before the general election will help the Bhumjaithai Party in the polls. The ministry is supervised by Bhumjaithai.
The Election Commission assigns district chiefs to act as election directors in the municipalities which come under their control.
"The order to transfer district chiefs is not in the interest of the civil service administration. It is intended to prepare for the general election," a ministry source said.
Some district chiefs may not report for duty on Monday as required by the transfer order.
The source said Mr Mongkol effectively was no longer the department's director-general after the merit system protection committee had issued its order.
The source added that if a large number of district chiefs did not report for duty, it could hamper preparations for the election.
The source said the transfers are meant to prepare for the general election, particularly in provinces which are strongholds of Bhumjaithai, such as Surin, Si Sa Ket, Buri Ram and Nakhon Ratchasima.
Some division directors, especially those with election duties and working in agencies under the authority of the Registration Administration Bureau and the Internal Security Affairs Bureau, have also been transferred.
Wichian Chidchanoknart, a computer specialist in the registration bureau, who had exposed alleged irregularities involving the department's 3.5-billion-baht computer leasing deal, has been transferred to the post of deputy rector of the Institute of Administration Development.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday said he would call a press conference to provide details of the House dissolution before leaving today for Indonesia to attend the Asean Summit in Jakarta.
Mr Abhisit reiterated that he would keep his promise to submit a royal decree to dissolve the House for royal endorsement in the first week of this month.
http://www.tannetwork.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1043449
Democrat Slams Red-Shirt Movement as Election Approaches
UPDATE : 6 May 2011
The personal spokesman for the Democrat Party leader has stated that the pro-Thaksin red-shirt movement may breach the Royal Decree on Election, as its role is intended to gain something about politics.
Thepthai Senapong, a personal spokesman for Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, lashed out at the former prime minister and the red-shirt movement over instigation ahead of the snap poll.
He explained that the red-shirt Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship or DAAD has nothing to do with the election, and it is not a political party as it is the tool of a politician.
He went on to say that the upcoming mass rally planned for May 19 to mark the anniversary of the 2010 mayhem could violate the Royal Decree on Election, as the protest is politically motivated.
He urged the Election Commission to probe this issue.
Concerning the role of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Thepthai said Thaksin's strategies to gain success in the forthcoming poll involve the Phue Thai Party, the red-shirt people, and an attempt to smear the opposite party via his media.
The spokesperson insisted the Democrat Party will win at least 200 MPs, not just 160 seats as speculated by Thaksin Shinawatra, as the 160-seat figure does not include the party-list MPs.
Thepthai concluded by saying the Democrat Party will secure seats in inner Bangkok, as the Phue Thai Party realizes people are still daunted by the Ratchaprasong arson in April 2010.
Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai takes action: Peau Thai Pre-Election Sign
Posted on May 6, 2011 by admin
https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2011/05/795.jpg
(Photo: 2Bangkok.com)
The sign reads: Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai takes action – “The experienced doers” support [the party] – Puea Thai Party
http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255405050017
Buranaj: Pheu Thai’s policy only aims to solve Thaksin’s problems
BANGKOK, 6 May 2011 (NNT) – Democrat Party Spokesperson MD Buranaj Smutharaks has commented on the Pheu Thai Party’s policy recently announced to businesspeople, saying its only motive is to get former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra out of trouble.
After Mr Thaksin had unveiled the election policy of the opposition Pheu Thai Party to members of the Thai-Chinese Business Association, MD Buranaj viewed that the entrepreneurs would be entitled to their decision if they chose to join Pheu Thai. However, he indicated that the move obviously showed that the ex-premier was looking to solve all problems surrounding himself as well as the United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), rather than aiming to develop the national economy. He thus reiterated to the public that voting for Pheu Thai would not benefit the country.
Regarding the Democrat’s policy for Bangkok, MD Buranaj said it had already been approved by Advisor to the Prime Minister Apirak Kosayodhin and would be introduced to people along with MP candidates after the House dissolution.
TAN_Network TAN News Network
INN: PM to submit dissolution decree for royal approval this afternoon before leaving for ASEAN summit
TAN_Network TAN News Network
Former Pheu Thai MP chairman Chalerm confident Yingluck Shinawatra will be party's PM candidate; confident Chavalit will not abandon party
Chalerm adds party has completed drafting amnesty draft bill to be proposed to Parliament if Pheu Thai gets to form govt
^ They have already done the paperwork, for the bill allowing for Thaksin's return! I wonder if they have done anything else? You know, like stuff to benefit the country.....
The Thaksin obsession is bewildering.
Thailand's general election: Shirt v shirt | The Economist
Shirt v shirt
Thailand’s forthcoming polls will be dominated by a man from Dubai, his sister and an old Etonian
May 5th 2011 | BANGKOK
THE last cabinet meeting of Abhisit Vejjajiva’s administration on May 3rd was also its longest. Ministers arrived at 8am and burned the midnight oil. And rather as Gladstone, the grand old man of 19th-century British politics, dubbed his own last cabinet meeting in March 1894 “the blubbering cabinet” (because ministers wept at his departure), so Mr Abhisit’s last might be called “the spendthrift cabinet”. Ministers approved 102 spending proposals, totalling billions of dollars. Plainly, an election is in the offing.
Having promised to go to the polls in the first half of the year, Mr Abhisit is now expected to dissolve parliament as soon as he can and call an election for June 26th, or soon after. In Thailand’s polarised political environment, the contest will be bitter. Many reckon the country will be lucky to escape further violence. And whatever the result, some will not accept it.
At the centre of the show is the man who has dominated and divided Thai politics for over a decade, the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. Deposed in a coup in 2006 and banned from politics in Thailand, he is now in exile in Dubai. But his devoted followers, the red shirts, have kept the flame glowing, often in the face of extreme government hostility. Scores of their number were gunned down during a prolonged protest in central Bangkok a year ago. They see this election as possibly their last chance to right the wrong of that coup. Mr Thaksin’s supporters form the Pheu Thai party. It constitutes the main challenge to Mr Abhisit’s ruling Democrat Party. Polls suggest it could win the most parliamentary seats, although not an outright majority.
Many non-partisan Thais had hoped that Pheu Thai would evolve into an issues-based party rather than remain a Thaksin fan-club. Fat chance. As the election nears, the opposite is happening. Mr Thaksin himself has been addressing supporters for hours by videolink and it is likely that the person who will lead the party into the election will be his own younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. A 43-year-old businesswoman, she has almost no experience of politics.
The Thaksinisation of Pheu Thai is not universally popular in the party. Some think Ms Yingluck will re-invigorate the base, but others retort that she is untested and may put off voters tired of the relentless focus on the fortunes of one man—and now one family.
Yet the party does not have a lot of choice, because of government crackdowns. Chaturon Chaisang, a former deputy prime minister, points out that in 2007 the government banned 111 leading members of Mr Thaksin’s party from politics for five years. More were banned later. Mr Chaisang cannot even vote. With so many leaders sidelined, Pheu Thai’s remaining talent pool is shallow.
Pheu Thai’s weakness is Mr Abhisit’s opportunity. He was installed by the military and, after three shaky years in power following the coups and turmoil of 2006-08, the British-born old Etonian will probably never have a better chance to win his own mandate. Even here though, Mr Thaksin influences the agenda.
The Democrat Party’s main appeal lies in its successful stewardship of the economy since the economic crisis of 2008-09, which Thailand survived remarkably well. But the party also hopes to eat into Mr Thaksin’s support by copying the populist economic policies that enabled him to build it up in the first place. So there has been an expansion of a social-security scheme to cover millions of workers in the informal economy; low-interest loans for taxi-drivers; free electricity for some households; cash transfers to farmers; and more money for the elderly.
The question is whether the campaign will be a proper contest of people and ideas—or another round in the near-civil war that has riven politics for over a decade. Two recent reports, one by the New York-based Human Rights Watch, the other by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, both chronicle how virtually nothing has come of the government’s policy of reconciliation with the opposition. On the day of the cabinet meeting, Freedom House, a Washington-based think-tank that rates degrees of political repression, downgraded the Thai media from “partly free” to “not free”—the same as neighbouring Cambodia.
In this atmosphere some red shirts argue that it will be almost impossible to hold a free and fair election. Equally dangerous, militant anti-Thaksinites, the yellow shirts, are boycotting the vote altogether. They want the army to take over and appoint a prime minister (again). They would never accept another Thaksinite premiership. If Pheu Thai wins outright, they may well resort to violence.
The yellow shirts have been stoking nationalist feeling with heated rhetoric about border clashes with Cambodia, adding another unstable element to an already volatile mix. Behind them lurks the powerful military establishment, another bit of the Thai body politic unlikely to welcome back a new Thaksinite government. And as if that were not complicated enough, everybody is watching the declining health of the 83-year-old king, who has been in hospital since 2009 and who had a lumbar puncture this week. It’s going to be a difficult few months for South-East Asia’s second-biggest economy.
got to be a joke, unless they are trying to provoke a military responseQuote:
Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
So what about separation of powers? Does the constitution say that parliament can override courts decision?Quote:
Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
In the broader sense, this is arguably the core factor in the dysfunction of the Thai system.Quote:
Originally Posted by Buksida
Thailand will never be a democracy until the ppl realize that govts aren't supposed to rule by decree.Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveCM
The media is largely to blame for just reporting what was said without analysis.
Asia Sentinel - Thailand's Political High Wire
Written by Our Correspondent
Friday, 06 May 2011
Elections are unlikely to settle anything
On the surface, Bangkok looks much as it always does, crowded, noisy and vibrant with few signs of last year’s political turmoil that resulted in a bloody crackdown on Red Shirt protesters, arson fires in the middle of the city and worries that a decade of political tension might devolve into civil war. The economy is ticking along nicely and the tourists are back in abundance.
This would seem a good time for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to celebrate the calm, as he is expected to do today when he submits a royal decree to dissolve Parliament and call a national election for late June or early July. He recently told a group of visiting Asian newspaper editors that with the economy strong and the turmoil gone, the time has come to heal Thailand’s political wounds with “free, fair elections.”
Not so fast. Ask nearly anyone in Thailand if they expect the elections to go well and the scenarios that come back are almost universally bad.
“Things in Thailand are such a mess that it is now finally as bad as the Philippines,” said a foreign businessman who has been in Thailand for more than 40 years. “It can only end badly unless the Democrats win a majority – and even that is bad because this government is so ineffective.”
The businessman, who is close to many powerful leaders in the country, shares a common view that Abhisit owes his tenuous hold on power to the military and the royalist elite and that those factions are unlikely to allow a victory by the opposition Pheu Thai party, the latest vehicle for former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s ambition of returning from exile on the back of the Red Shirts to reclaim the seat that was taken from him by a coup in 2006.
“If the military calls off the election because they think Thaksin will win, it will be chaos,” the man said. “If Pheu Thai win and they are denied the right to form a government, it will be chaos. If there is a shaky coalition government, it will be a mess. And Abhisit is just simply ineffective.”
A convincing majority for anyone does not appear to be in the cards. Abhisit was forced to promise an election in the wake of the disastrous May 2010 events in which 92 persons, the vast majority of them Red Shirt protesters, were gunned down after his government was unable to clear the streets and lost control of central Bangkok. A state of emergency followed until last December, when it was lifted.
Until now, no real investigation has dealt with what happened or why, a fact that has been denounced by both Human Rights Watch and the International Crisis Group. The Thai media has also lost much of its vaunted independence in the face of shadowy pressures from the military and royalist elements eager to stamp out pro-Thaksin voices or discussions of the looming crisis that will occur when the country’s frail 83-year-old monarch dies.
Asked by the Asian editors about promised national reconciliation with the opposition, a weary-looking Abhisit simply wandered around the issue. “I have listened to all voices, including red shirts,” he said. But Abhisit would not even speak Thaksin’s name, saying only that Thailand must “move beyond the interests of one man or one group.”
It is not at all clear how that will happen or if the Democrats can lead a coalition to a convincing victory. An April poll conducted across 17 provinces says the race is almost a dead heat, with the Democrats enjoying a slight lead at 26.4 percent to 25.5 percent for Pheu Thai, which appears set to be led to the polls by Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, a charming woman by most accounts but also a political neophyte. A third of the electorate remains undecided.
Thaksin-related parties, have won every election since 2001, including a post-coup election in 2007 that was subsequently unwound by the courts.
A win for Pheu Thai, analysts say, may spur yet another coup by the military, or an attempt to dragoon enough other political parties together into a coalition to keep Pheu Thai from governing, as the military did in creating the coalition that brought an un-elected Abhisit and the Democrats to power in December 2008.
With hundreds of Pheu Thai leaders banned from politics for at least five years by the government in 2007 and Thaksin living in Dubai, it must be wearying indeed for Abhisit to be on such shaky ground when his Democrats should be able to control the scenario at will despite Thaksin’s money.
Amid this turmoil, Thai politics are increasingly being driven by the military, inviting unflattering comparisons with neighboring Burma’s recent cosmetic democratic changes. The royalist People’s Alliance for Democracy – the Yellow Shirts in Thailand’s color-coded street politics ‑ with the connivance of the military, kicked off a border squabble with Cambodia last December over the ancient Preah Vihear temple that continues until today, with Thailand resisting efforts by ASEAN and the UN to intervene and stop a renewed flare up of fighting that has killed a number of soldiers on both sides and that many fear could be used as a pretext to halt the elections.
Thaksin, a tycoon accused of vast corruption by his enemies, has dominated Thai politics like no one before him, a fact that led to fears when he was in office that he would one day supplant the monarchy. He remains very much in the picture despite having fled the country in 2008 to avoid prison. A Pheu Thai rally recently featured a telephone address in which Thaksin promised a populist cornucopia of benefits should the party win ‑ solving Bangkok’s perennial floods, building a new financial capital city, constructing 10 new electric light rail lines with a fixed fee of 20 baht per ride and cheap housing for students and the.
The former premier would also resume his drug war – one of the blackest marks in his premiership, in which perhaps 2,500 to 3,000 supposed drug peddlers were summarily murdered – and, he said, eradicate poverty in four years.
It is a profusion of promises that seem designed not to be fulfilled but to return Thaksin back to the country. While some Pheu Thai supporters insist it is not the case, Thaksin has tied his personal fortunes to the party and the party to him.
The military is unlikely to let him return. Thus the army has gone on the political offensive, with Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, the army chief, basically administering the country from the barracks, appearing on television more frequently than the soft-spoken Abhisit
In the meantime, charges of lèse-majesté – insulting the royalty – continue without abating. The website Political Prisoners in Thailand estimates 300 individuals have been charged – including the executive board of the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand. The latest to be charged, sending shock waves through the academic community, is Somsak Jiamteerasakul, a respected historian at Thammasat University, and one of the country’s best-known critics of the lèse-majesté law. One study shows that 94 percent of all those charged with lèse-majesté have been convicted, even if most are later pardoned.
Human Rights Watch has named the present Abhisit government as delivering the most censorship in modern Thai history because of its raids on Red Shirt radio stations, widespread censorship of the Web and the use of lèse-majesté. Freedom House, another NGO, quotes the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology as having blocked 2,200 websites between April and June 2010, with the blocked sites generally those that were pornographic or insulting to Thailand’s monarchy, though some independent news sites such as Prachatai.org were also blocked. Freedom House quotes the Thai Netizens Network, as saying the number of blocked websites could have been as high as 10,000.
<paragraph snipped - TD policy>
For all of this, international investors seem unfazed. The government reported at the end of March that foreign applications to the Board of Investment were up 58 percent across a wide spectrum of industries from petrochemicals and automobiles to energy generation and hotels, an indication that foreign nationals presumably have some confidence in the tourism industry.
At the same time, the government is doing all it can with its own populist program. It has increased the rice subsidy, is providing free electricity to poor households and is subsidizing diesel to the tune of US$10 million a day. A 5 percent hike in civil service salaries came into effect in April. It has promised to lift the minimum wage by 25 percent through 2012, is delivering education loans to 250,000 university students and making low-interest loans to taxi drivers. It has capped the prices of palm oil and sugar, among other commodities.
Whether these tactics will deliver a workable Democrat governing coalition is unclear. Although Democrat strength in the south is strong, with about 70 percent approval, the impoverished northeast remains solidly Red Shirt. Even in Bangkok, however, where the elites have dominated, the Democrats are running behind Pheu Thai by almost 10 percent.
Electoral changes made to the composition of the parliament in March, cutting the number of directly elected seats from 400 to 375 and increasing party-list seats, which tend to favor the government, to 125, might give whatever coalition the Democrats can put together the edge.
What is almost certain is that the army will try to engineer a coalition that will keep the royalists in power. But if that happens, voter anger could well swell out of control. Said a foreign businessman: “There looks to be no way out.”
https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2011/05/805.jpgHe's everywhere and nowhere
[click link above for full article]
Thai PM says to submit dissolution decree Friday - Yahoo! News
Thai PM says to submit dissolution decree Friday
https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2011/04/2823.jpg
By Anusak Konglang | AFP News – 11 minutes ago
https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2011/05/806.jpg
General view of Thai parliament in Bangkok. Thailand's prime minister said he would …
Thailand's prime minister said he would ask the king to dissolve parliament for the country's first general election since deadly political violence rocked Bangkok last year.
British-born, Oxford-educated premier Abhisit Vejjajiva, whose term finishes at the end of this year, is gambling on early polls to propel him to a second term and silence critics who say he has no popular mandate.
Abhisit, the head of the elite-backed Democrat Party, said he would submit a formal request to King Bhumibol Adulyadej asking for the lower house to be dissolved for a poll set to be held in late June or early July.
"I will submit the royal decree to dissolve the house to the king this afternoon before I leave for the ASEAN summit" of Southeast Asian leaders in Jakarta, he told reporters on Friday.
He did not reveal the election date but said he would hold a news conference on Monday.
By law, polls must be held between 45 and 60 days after house dissolution, which would take effect once the decree is signed by Thailand's 83-year-old monarch, who has been hospitalised since September 2009.
Abhisit's party, the country's oldest, with a support base in Bangkok and the south, has not won a general election in nearly two decades and faces a struggle to cling to power, even with the support of its coalition partners.
Abhisit took office in a 2008 parliamentary vote after a court ruling threw out the previous administration, and he is accused by his political foes of being an unelected puppet of the military and the establishment.
The vote comes at a time of heightened political sensitivity for the country, which remains deeply divided a year after a military crackdown on opposition protests in the capital that left 90 people dead, mostly civilians.
Parties affiliated to fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra have won the most seats in the past four elections, but the former tycoon was toppled in a 2006 coup and the results of the last two polls were reversed by court rulings.
Abhisit defied sceptics last year to survive a crippling political crisis marked by a series of clashes between demonstrators and armed troops in Bangkok. It was the country's worst political violence in decades.
Many of the mainly rural, working class Reds are loyal to Thaksin, who lives overseas to avoid a jail sentence imposed in absentia for corruption, but is considered the de facto leader of the opposition Puea Thai.
The opposition party, which is particularly strong in the rural north and northeast, has not yet announced its candidate for prime minister, although Thaksin's sister Yingluck Shinawatra has been touted as a top contender.
Thailand has suffered years of political instability, punctuated by unrest and military intervention, with 18 actual or attempted coups since 1932, when the country became a constitutional monarchy.